WOMEN’S 200 FREESTYLE
- 2012 Olympic Champ: Allison Schmitt (USA), 1:53.31
- 2015 Worlds Champ: Katie Ledecky (USA), 1:55.16
- World Record: 1:52.98 | Federica Pellegrini (Italy) | 07/28/09
Sarah Sjostrom and Katie Ledecky are so good at their best events that there haven’t been any consistent challengers (or real challengers, at all) over the last few years. Former 100 fly world record holder Dana Vollmer went off the map after London, and Sjostrom has been the unquestioned sprint butterfly queen since her World Championship title in 2013. Even since Vollmer’s return and her quick catch-up back to form, Sjostrom holds the five fastest 100 butterfly performances ever and has been swimming mind-bogglingly fast in the months leading up to Rio. Ledecky, meanwhile, doesn’t need much of an explanation for her astounding success in the 400, 800, and 1500m freestyle races since 2012. These two leviathans of their disciplines will battle in an off event* in what could be the race to watch in Rio.
Sarah Sjöström (photo: Mike Lewis, Ola Vista Photography)
*It feels very wrong to call the 200 free an off event for two women who can put up 1:54’s in-season. But I’m calling it that.
Ledecky did her thing where she blows up for some huge time at the Austin Pro Swim Series meet, and she was 1:54.43 there for a lifetime best. That time was actually faster than what she ended up going in the 200 free final at the Olympic Trials, which suggests (along with her so-so [by Ledeckian standards] 800 free and 100 free) that she probably didn’t rest much, if at all, for Trials. Meanwhile, Sjostrom swam a 1:54.34 at Swedish Nationals earlier this month, nearly eclipsing her own personal best.
The world record is a 1:52.98 done during the suit era by Italy’s Federica Pellegrini (we’ll talk about her in a bit), and the fastest-ever in textile was American Allison Schmitt‘s 1:53.61 from the London Games, which also stands at the Olympic meet record. Both Ledecky and Sjostrom could certainly be under Schmitt’s mark, and Pellegrini’s could be in danger. Sjostrom is more of a sprinter, so we know she has the front half speed necessary, and Ledecky has been sub-54 more than once in the 100 free. The Swede has backed off of the 200 free before, dropping it from her schedule at last summer’s World Championships, only to swim faster than Ledecky’s world title-winning 200 free time while leading off Sweden’s 800 free relay. At the Olympics, however, the 200 conflicts with neither swimmers’ regular schedule, so we might just be lucky enough to see the butterfly queen and distance superstar compete in common ground.
Pellegrini, who is still alive and kicking, actually just took down her own national record in the 100 free at the 2016 Sette Colli Trophy in Rome with an impressive 53.18. She also swam a 1:54.55 200 free at the same meet, erasing Sjostrom’s Sette Colli record, in turn beating her 200 free times from the previous three World Championships as well as the London Olympics. Pellegrini’s alarmingly fast swims are even more impressive considering her two performances from the Sette Colli Trophy are textile bests for her. She has more international experience than Ledecky and Sjostrom combined in this event, and could absolutely surprise for the gold in Rio.
Michelle Coleman (photo: Tim Binning)
Australia’s Emma McKeon continues to improve in the 100 and 200 free, impressing with a 1:54.83 to win the Aussie Trials and also posting a sub-53 performance in the 100 at the same meet. McKeon is the fourth and final swimmer to break 1:55 this year, and she will give the other ladies a run for their money.
Let’s talk a bit about Sjostrom and Ledecky’s countrymates in this event: Michelle Coleman and Missy Franklin. Coleman posted a lifetime best 1:55.88 at the Sette Colli, where she raced Pellegrini. The Swede is an incredibly useful 2nd big leg for her nation’s 800 relay, and has posted several times under 1:57 in the last year or so that suggest she should be competitive in this race. Franklin, who has had not only a rough Trials but a rough couple long course seasons, did really pull through despite low expectations in the 200 free final in Omaha to earn an individual bid to the Games and beat out Allison Schmitt. Franklin’s 1:56.18 is by no means a good time for her at a meet like Olympic Trials. The 2011 World Champ, however, has been under 1:55 before, and her bronze in Kazan, plus her swim at Trials, show that she can come through when she needs to. With no more 100’s to swim, and only the 200 back to worry about individually, Franklin should be capable of another 1:55 mid to low at least in Rio.
China’s Shen Duo posted a 1:55 at the Chinese Nationals in April. The Chinese 800 free relay is one for the Americans to keep the closest eye on, and Shen is certainly in the mix for appearances in the final. Femke Heemskerk is a much more viable threat in the 100, but she did post a 1:54.68 in March of 2015. She hasn’t been consistent enough or strong enough when it counts in this race, however, to warrant the expectation for her to repeat a time like that.
Note: Katinka Hosszu isn’t entered to swim this race in Rio.
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) | Predicted Time in Rio |
| 1 | Katie Ledecky | USA | 1:54.43 | 1:53.5 |
| 2 | Sarah Sjostrom | Sweden | 1:54.34 | 1:53.6 |
| 3 | Federica Pellegrini | Italy | 1:54.55 | 1:54.3 |
| 4 | Emma McKeon | Australia | 1:54.83 | 1:55.0 |
| 5 | Missy Franklin | USA | 1:54.81 | 1:55.5 |
| 6 | Shen Duo | China | 1:55.82 | 1:55.9 |
| 7 | Michelle Coleman | Sweden | 1:55.88 | 1:56.4 |
| 8 | Bronte Barratt | Australia | 1:55.95 | 1:56.6 |
Dark Horse: France’s Charlotte Bonnet. She posted a 1:56.32 at the French Open in early April. That wasn’t her first time toying with the 1:56 barrier, after posting a 1:56.16 at the Canet stop of the 2015 Mare Nostrum tour. She’s coming off of a bronze from the 2016 European Champs behind Pellegrini and Heemskerk, posting a 1:56.51 there.
Would like the nostalgia of Pelegrini.
So
1: Pelegrini
2: McKeon
3: Sjostrom
McKeon is the clear in form smokey. Complete over distance and with speed. To not have her improve on her trial time in the predictions is dangerous. Watch this space. Medallist I think.
If you don’t like Karl’s projection of 1:55.0, could you give a projection of your own–and then we can see whose prediction turns out to be closer to the truth.
1. Sjostrom
2. Ledecky
3. Pellegrini
4. McKeown
5. Heemskerk
6. Coleman
7. Duo
8. Barratt
Dark horse: China’s 14 year old Ai Yanhan
China is always a dangareous swimming team at the Olympics
It is amazing how this young girl, practically a teenager, influences the opinion of swimming experts. She never was #1 at any season. Her best performance is only #7 of all time bests. Just three years ago she surprised many by winning second ticket to world championship and wisely (by general opinion) decided to not compete. Her best time was shown six months ago, is not the best in the season and isn’t that fresh compare to other competitors. And yet she is the #1 contender for the gold Olympic medal. Do you know why? Because and only because her name is Katie Ledecky.
Because her name is Katie Ledecky? I don’t understand what you’re trying to say with this comment.
Never mind, Markster. I’m confused myself. Trying to understand why I think she will win this race with the new Olympic record. Same situation when US commentators strongly suggested that she would win the world title when broadcasting on her semi-final race. Neither her in season times and ranking nor her semi race where she barely made to the final could support such idea at the moment.
It seems you are not familiar with Ledecky.
She swam a couple 1:56 untapered in early 2015
She already swam several 1:55 in 2014, including 1:54.36 relay split 1:55.16 which was ranked second in 2014 behind Sarah.
With Sarah decided not to swim 200, Ledecky was already a favorite to win 200 even before the championships started.
Femke Heemskerk was the favorite with 1:54.68
Heemskerk’s time was done in early 2014 and she never approached that time again.
Heemskerk swims with the middle-distance whisperer Philippe Lucas, who has brought Laure Manaudou and Sharon van Rouwendaal to prominence, gave Camelia Potec a range beyond 200m, and brought Pellegrini back. I am not ready to count her out.
Heemskerk – 1:54.68 – 4/3/2015. correct your records.
Ledecky’s time prior WC
1:56.16 – Austin – 1/16
1:56.79 – Mesa – 4/16
1:56.78 – 6/27
I don’t count prelims.u
Her rank was #4 behind Heemskerk, Sjostrom and Pellegrini.
Sorry the rank #4 is inaccurate. There was several more swimmers under 1:56 – Hosszu and McKeon for instance. Based on her times of the first half of 2015 season, her ranking and heavy loaded schedule she wasn’t considered a strong contender for world title at 200m
Are you really criticizing US commentators for strongly suggesting that Ledecky would win in 2015 when broadcasting the semis? She did win. Maybe there was a reason she barely made the final–like a WR in the 1500 about 20 minutes earlier?
Not at all Jim. I was proud of them to see that deep. Yes, her 1500 world record race was so damaging to her semi-final race that the last thing in my mind after seeing her being seventh at last turn was that I was watching next day winner of world championship race.
It’s hard to pick against the best female swimmer in the world. Still, if anyone can beat Ledecky, I think it’s Pellegrini, not Sjostrom. Very impressed by her in season 53.18 and 1:54.55. I guess it’s possible she peaked too early in the season, but she has a pretty decent track record of swimming her fastest times of the year at the big championship meets, so I think she could but up some fantastic times in Rio. In addition, she won’t have to swim two grueling 400m races the day before this race like she did in past Olympics.
Also, I’m surprised so many people are high on Sjostrom when she was 4th in ’11, 11th in ’12, 4th in… Read more »
Dumb. Sarah will probably medal.
I was dumb, I meant Silver, she is younger, and is doing better than Pellegrini. Forgive me.
What you forget is that Sarah is stronger mentally than she have ever been before, and the mistakes she did back in 2011-13 won’t happen again. Wouldn’t surprise me if she swims a sub 1.54 and shows everyone once and for all that the nervous teenager that she was back in London 2012 is 100% gone
Sjostrom: She hasn’t show signs of improvement from her best form at freestyle, that is 2014: 50m -23.98; 100m – 52.67; 200m – 1:53.64(relay with RT – 0.32). Her last race this month was done with negative splits. The only thing that can be said about it that she won’t execute such a tactic at Olympic final. It is too risky not to have advantage over such racers like Pellegrini and Ledecky after first half of the distance. Or to trail a body length behind McKeon. I took Berlin 2014 relay race as a benchmark. What Sjostrom is capable for now is most likely 1:54.2 +/- 0.15.
The best tactician is definitely Pellegrini. I think even if she is 1 second behind the leader at the 150 she will win.
She’ll have to keep it closer than that. Her fastest last 50 in textile is 29.0 Ledecky has been 29.1 but is usually 29-mid. If she is within a half second yes, she can definitely win.
This is easily the most open women’s freestyle race, with 4 potential gold medalist, though I would have Ledecky as favourite.
I just don’t see Ledecky beating McKeon by 1.5 seconds in the 200.