2016 CANADIAN OLYMPIC AND PARALYMPIC TRIALS
- April 5-10
- Prelims: 10 a.m EST
- Finals: 6 p.m EST
- Live results
- Psych sheets
- Live stream
- Olympic Qualifying Times
- Selection Criteria
- World Rankings
The men’s sprint freestyle events have taken on a new look over the past year, while the distance events remain very similar as the past. Other than two-time Olympic medalist Ryan Cochrane, this crop of Canadian freestylers is completely different than the team that was fielded four years ago, as a lot of up and coming swimmers have started to make a name for themselves on the international stage since 2012.
50 FREE
- Top Seed – Santo Condorelli (22.04)
- FINA-A Standard – 22.27
- Number of Canadians Seeded Under FINA-A – 2
- Notable Foreigners: Josh Schneider (USA), Simonas Bilis (LTU)
Last summer at the Pan Am/World Trials Santo Condorelli and Karl Krug came into their first meet under Canadian sporting citizenship and dominated their events, as expected. Krug won the 50 free, while Condorelli won the 100 free and 100 fly. Condorelli’s 50 free at Trials (22.70) wasn’t really indicative of the form he showed the rest of the summer, posting the #1 time in the world in the 100 free at Pan Ams (47.98) and finishing 4th at the World Championships in the same event (48.19). Krug won the 50 at Trials (22.21) but only made the consolation final at Pan Ams.
Condorelli has shown good form this season, posting a personal best time in the 50 free in December (22.04) to lead the Canadian rankings coming in. He would have to be considered the favorite. Krug comes in seeded 2nd with his 22.21 from last years Trials, and 2016 CIS champ Oleksandr Loginov sits 3rd with a 22.30. They currently sit as the perennial top three, with 2015 World Championship team member Yuri Kisil (22.52), 2013 World Championship team member Chris Manning (22.69) and Mirando Jarry (22.85) lurking in the weeds.
Also swimming at Trials will be plenty of international swimmers. International competitors are not eligible to qualify for an A final, and only the top-4 non-Canadians can make it back for the B final. Top international swimmers in the 50 free include Josh Schneider and Seth Stubblefield from the United States, and NC State freestyler Simonas Bilis from Lithuania.
Condorelli comes in as the favorite after his 22.04 performance in December, and it looks as though Kurg and Loginov will be in a tight battle for second. Both are capable of achieving the FINA-A standard of 22.27.
100 FREE
- Top Seed – Santo Condorelli (47.98)
- FINA-A Standard – 48.99
- Number of Canadians Seeded Under FINA-A – 1
- Notable Foreigners: Josh Schneider, Tom Shields, Ryan Murphy (USA), Simonas Bilis (LTU)
Not only does the 100 freestyle have individual selection spots on the line, but it will also determine who represents the team in the 400 free relay. Canada’s 8th place finish in the 400 free relay at the World Championships in Kazan has already qualified them for Rio in the event. If the top-4 times at the trials combined (minus 1.8 seconds) is under the relay qualification standard for Rio (3:15.47), those four automatically qualify. Any relays that don’t qualify under the standard can have relay-only members added to the team by high performance director John Atkinson, provided they are under the relay-only qualifying standard (50.70). The selection criteria can get a little complicated, but we will keep you up to date throughout the meet.
After his performances last summer, Santo Condorelli comes in as the favorite by far in this race and will be a medal contender at the Olympic Games. As previously mentioned, Condorelli swam a world-leading 47.98 at the Pan Am Games, and followed up with an impressive 4th place finish at the World Championships. He also led Canada to the final of the 400 free relay at a World Championship or Olympics for the first time since 2008 in Beijing, and thus has raised the bar in Canadian sprinting.
Joining Condorelli on that relay in Kazan was Karl Krug, Yuri Kisil, and Evan Van Moerkerke. Kisil seems to have cemented himself as the number two man after three sub-49 relay splits in Kazan, his best being a 48.19. He has yet to crack the 49 second barrier individually, currently sitting at 49.07, but if he can pull it off at trials he’ll get an individual swim (FINA-A standard is 48.99) provided he finishes 1st or 2nd. Krug, who was 49.96 at the 2015 trials, had a very solid leg of 49.19 in Kazan. Van Moerkerke split 49.37 in both prelims and finals at Worlds after going a lifetime best 49.94 at Trials.
Others who will be extremely dangerous in this event will be youngsters Javier Acevedo and Markus Thormeyer, and Dominique Massie-Martel. Acevedo finished ahead of Krug and Van Moerkerke at trials last year finishing 3rd, posting a best time of 49.85, but swam at Junior Worlds rather than Worlds. Thormeyer posted a best time of 49.59 at Junior Worlds and had a relay split of 48.77, making him a major threat. Massie-Martel also got under 50 seconds last year, going a lifetime best 49.95 in the prelims at trials, ultimately finishing 7th.
Flying under the radar in this event is Evan White out of Oakville who recently competed at the NCAA Championships for Michigan. Seeded just 19th with a 51.11, White produced a 49.12 anchor leg for Canada at the 2014 Commonwealth Games in the 400 free relay. He hasn’t come close to that time since, and he doesn’t usually focus on this event, but he’s one who has shown in the past he is capable of throwing down a fast 100 free.
Unless something bizarre happens, Condorelli will win this. Kisil looks good for second, but it’s going to be tight battle. After exceptional summers, look for the young guys Thormeyer and Acevedo to put some heat on Krug, Van Moerkerke and Massie-Martel. No one in the field other than Condorelli has ever been under the FINA-A standard of 48.99, but it is definitely doable for Kisil, and potentially the others.
200 FREE
- Top Seed – Jeremy Bagshaw (1:47.48)
- FINA-A Standard: 1:47.97
- Number of Canadians Seeded Under FINA-A – 1
- Notable Foreigners: Ryan Murphy, Tom Shields, Michael Klueh (USA), Jan Switkowski (POL)
Unlike the 400 free relay, the Canadian team didn’t even field a team in the 800 freestyle relay in Kazan, and finished 3rd at the Pan American Games in 7:17.33, ranking them 16th overall last year. This means they have yet to qualify for Rio in this event. If the top-4 finishers in the 200 freestyle can combine (minus 1.8 seconds) under the relay qualifying standard (7:10.92) they will almost definitely qualify for Rio. In order to do this the top-4 finishers will have to average about 1:48.1, which is doable but seems unlikely looking at the current state of the event in Canada.
Jeremy Bagshaw is the undisputed favorite after producing a best time 1:47.48 at the 2015 trials. Bagshaw was unable to recreate that swim at Worlds, going 1:48.29, but even that time puts him well ahead of the next best Canadian. With the 2nd place finisher at last years trials Alec Page now retired from the sport, Canada will have to look down the pipeline if they want to put together an 800 free relay for Rio. UBC’s Stefan Milosevic swam on the 800 free relay at Pan Ams and comes in as the 2nd seeded Canadian in 1:49.70, with teammates Keegan Zanatta (1:50.28), Yuri Kisil (1:50.74), and Coleman Allen (1:50.96) not far behind. Like in the 100, Markus Thormeyer (1:50.28) and Javier Acevedo (1:51.03) could jump up and surprise, as could Peter Brothers (1:51.16) and Chad Bobrosky (1:51.40).
Two-time Olympic medalist Ryan Cochrane swam on the 800 free relay last summer, and could very well be on the relay if they qualify, but isn’t likely to qualify individually. The FINA-A standard sits at 1:47.97, which will require everyone other than Bagshaw to drop significant time in order to swim this event individually. Among others who could surprise, Evan Van Moerkerke of Guelph could thrown down a good one after getting his long course 100m under 50 seconds.
Bagshaw looks like a good bet to win, with the rest of the field scrambling to try and get the relay qualified for Rio. Many of the UBC guys, including Stefan Milosevic and Yuri Kisil, took this season off university swimming to train for this summer, likely with the freestyle relays in mind. Look for them to be in the hunt to get under 1:49 and place in the top-4.
400 FREE
- Top Seed – Ryan Cochrane (3:44.59)
- FINA-A Standard – 3:50.44
- Number of Canadians Seeded Under FINA-A – 2
- Notable Foreigners – Connor Jaeger, Michael Klueh, Nicholas Sweetser (USA), Jan Switkowski (POL)
Every men’s freestyle race has a clear favorite in each event, with Condorelli in the sprints, Bagshaw in the 200 and distance ace Ryan Cochrane in the 400 and the mile. After a pair of disappointing 9th place finishes at the Olympics in the 400 free in 2008 and 2012, and 5th and 4th place finishes at the World Championships in 2011 and 2013, Cochrane finally broke through in the 400 in 2014, winning the Commonwealth Games title in a best time of 3:43.46. Cochrane continued to do well in the event in 2015, winning bronze at the World Championships in his second fastest performance ever (3:44.59). Cochrane has never been challenged in trials meets in the past in the 400 or 1500, and he shouldn’t be here, so don’t expect a full taper from him. Historically he usually comes in around 3:47 at trials, so we’ll see where he is.
Jeremy Bagshaw comes in as the only other man under 3:50, with his best time of 3:49.76 done at the 2015 trials where he was 2nd. After Bagshaw comes Keegan Zanatta (3:52.15), Jon McKay (3:53.88), and Philippe Guertin (3:55.83). Others who could jump up and be dangerous are 1500m specialists Eric Hedlin (3:55.95) and Tristan Cote (3:56.12), and Peter Brothers (3:56.33).
Barring a massive upset, Cochrane will win this one handily. Bagshaw looks good for 2nd, but he’ll have to watch out for Keegan Zanatta. Zanatta, who is coming off a third consecutive title in this event at the CIS Championships, will likely be the only one who will be able to challenge Bagshaw for the 2nd spot. In order to qualify for Rio, the 2nd place finisher must get under 3:50.44, a time Bagshaw has already eclipsed and Zanatta will be aiming for.
1500 FREE
- Top Seed – Ryan Cochrane (14:51.08)
- FINA-A Standard – 15:14.77
- Number of Canadians Seeded Under FINA-A – 3
- Notable Foreigners – Connor Jaeger, Nicholas Sweetser (USA)
Ryan Cochrane is all but a sure thing of winning this one, seeded 21 seconds faster than the next best Canadian. Cochrane will be looking to medal in this event for a third consecutive Olympics after winning bronze in 2008 and silver in 2012. After a somewhat disappointing performance in this event at the 2015 World Championships where he still managed a bronze medal with an absent Sun Yang, Cochrane will be looking to regain the form he showed in 2008 and 2012. With Sun and defending world champion Gregorio Paltrinieri in the field, Cochrane will need to get down in the 14:30 range if he wants win gold in Rio.
The battle for second will be between Kier Maitland (15:12.47), Eric Hedlin (15:13.25), and Jon McKay (15:18.69). Maitland swam that personal best of 15:12 when he finished 2nd to Cochrane at the 2015 trials, and that time puts him under the FINA-A cut. Hedlin had his best 1500 in two years last August when he posted that 15:13, putting him in the hunt for the 2nd spot behind Cochrane, and McKay was a finalist in this event at the 2015 World University Games.
