The United States has not won an Olympic gold medal in the 200 IM since Tracy Caulkins’ win at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games. This year’s field at the 2016 US Olympic Trials is shaping up to be one of the strongest yet, with many of the top swimmers looking for a spot on the US Olympic Team and a chance to end the 200 IM gold medal drought.
Maya DiRado, courtesy of Tim Binning
Stanford University’s Maya Dirado comes in with the top time so far in the qualification cycle with a 2:08.99, over a full second ahead of the second seed. Dirado posted this time at 2015 World Championships in Kazan, where she finished 4th in the event overall. After disappointing finishes at Olympic Trials in 2012, Dirado is a favorite in the 200 IM and she has already proven that she is prepared to challenge the top athletes in the world in this event.
Behind Dirado is Melanie Margalis of St. Petersburg Aquatics. She comes in as the second seed, though her time of 2:10.20 was posted almost two years ago at 2014 Summer Nationals. Margalis is certainly a contender for the Olympic team in the 200 IM after making the World Championship team in this event in 2015 where she placed 7th overall. The biggest threat to top-seeded Dirado will come from 2012 Olympic bronze medalist in the 200 IM, Caitlin Leverenz. Of the top seeds in the 200 IM field, Leverenz has the most international meet experience and has shown that she can perform under pressure, posting best times when it matters. Expect Leverenz to challenge Dirado for the win at Olympic Trials this summer.
Melanie Margalis in the prelims of the 200 IM in Mesa, Arizona (photo: Mike Lewis)
A relative newcomer to the international swimming scene, Madisyn Cox posted the fourth fastest time coming into Olympic Trials last summer at 2015 US National Championships. Cox won silver in the 200 IM at the 2015 World University Games, her first international competition. Another newcomer joining Cox will be Meghan Small, silver medalist in the 200 IM at 2015 Pan American Games. Though Cox and Small lack the international meet experience of Dirado and Leverenz, there are always a few breakout swims at Olympic Trials (think 2012 Katie Ledecky) and these two have the potential, based on recent performances, to challenge the top seeds.
Coming off of a stellar college season, Stanford’s Ella Eastin is a top seed in the 200 IM at Olympic Trials and will be a serious contender for a spot on the Olympic Team. Eastin set the American record in the 200 IM SCY at NCAAs in March and is the youngest woman to break 4:00 in the 400 IM SCY. If she can continue this momentum and focus on LCM training heading into Olympic Trials, Eastin will certainly drop time and have a top performance. Kathleen Baker, finalist at 2015 World Championships in the 100 back, will face off with the top swimmers in the 200 IM at Olympic Trials, as well. Though her chances of making the Olympic team are certainly better in the 100 back, Baker finished 2nd behind Eastin at NCAAs in March in the 200 IM and has shown that she can convert her short course training during the school year into success in the long course season. Don’t count Baker out of the race in the 200 IM.
Ella Eastin racing the breast leg during the 200 IM/Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com
Filling out the field are Bethany Galat and Sarah Henry of Aggie Aquatics, as well as 2012 Olympian Elizabeth Beisel, who finished 5th in the 200 IM at 2012 Olympic Trials. These three swimmers, particularly Beisel, who is known to race well at big meets, will compete for a spot in finals at Olympic Trials.
While the field is strong, expect the race to come down to battle between Dirado and Leverenz. The group of young swimmers, Cox, Small, and Eastin, will certainly put pressure on the two favorites, but it will take some serious time drops for an upset.
Top 8 Predictions
| Swimmer | Best Time since 2012 | Predicted Time |
| Caitlin Leverenz | 2:10.13 | 2:08.5 |
| Maya Dirado | 2:08.99 | 2:08.6 |
| Ella Eastin | 2:10.54 | 2:09.2 |
| Elizabeth Beisel | 2:11.16 | 2:10.6 |
| Meghan Small | 2:11.26 | 2:10.7 |
| Melanie Margalis | 2:10.20 | 2:10.9 |
| Madisyn Cox | 2:10.75 | 2:11.1 |
| Kathleen Baker | 2:12.09 | 2:11.3 |
Dark horse: Elizabeth Pelton finished 3rd at 2012 Olympic Trials in the 200 IM, had a few stellar season at Cal, and looked to be a favorite for the 2016 Olympic Team. But after taking time off to heal a broken hand in the fall of 2015, Pelton had a mediocre college season this past year. Though it is a long shot, if Pelton can get back to where she was before the injury, she could pressure the top seeds in the race.
smooth swimmer I know it,s just predictions and yes hosszu is running away with the 200im and maybe even the 400im but for Maya dirado to win silver in the 200im behind hosszu, she has to go past both kanako Watanabe and especially Siobhan Marie o connor.
As for the 400im, the path to a silver medal behind hosszu is much clearer for dirado, as in, she,s more likely to win a silver medal in the 400im than the 200im. But I,m not counting her out in the 200im.
Carlo, you may be right. My predictions may be proven to be way off in Rio, but I’m certainly having fun in making my predictions.
Everyone is so serious these days with these predictions. At least you know I won’t be boastful when Rio confirms my predictions, unlike a certain people wink wink..
Watanabe missed the team in this event, I believe
Preselected?
She would have been preselected had she finished top two, regardless of time, just like Seto in 400 IM.
She finished third.
Omaha
1. Maya DIrado 2:08.50 US Open record
2. Ella Eastin 2:09.20
Rio
Maya Dirado 2:07.95 silver
Ella Eastin 2:09.00 5th
I saw Leverenz at the pool the other day, she was going some quick SCM 50’s. As were all of the Cal Bears.
I would like to see what Missy Franklin could do in the 200 IM.
As an individual event (i.e. top 2 at trials), she could have as good a chance as in any freestyle event.
I posted that a few days ago and people basically laughed at the comment, but I agree 100%!!! She just needs work on Breaststroke.
Yeah – 1:52.1 in yards, and Missy’s better in long course. No joke.
Probably, Fly and Breast just a little faster for Missy.
Her Fly is fine she can go out in 28, backstroke a 31, breast 38+, freestyle 29 or 30. Those splits can make the team!
Those are Hosszu like splis.. no way she will do that.. The best would add up to something around 2:07…
And I can´t recall seeing Missy swimming Fly and Breast LCM, the fact that she is better at LCM on Back/free does not mean she would be better on fly/breast which are harder to maintain form and momentum on LCM
Pretty sure her fly is 28 capable. The breast might be around 40 but I think she could seriously pull off getting second with her closing speed.
Missy should try both 200/400IM for the 2017 world aquatics championship……hopefully she would do very good at those….but for RIO Maya is the clear favorite…for second place i pick Ella Eastin over others…
The event schedule makes this tricky. 200 IM is same day as 200 free. For Margalis, Cox, Small and company, it’s a strategic choice:
Get 1st-2nd in the IM, which is a relatively weak American event.
Get 1st-6th in the 200 fr, one of the strongest American events.
Or, go for both, which seems a little crazy through 3 rounds of each.
If this is so, unless 200 fly is swam on the same day, than Eastin knocks off Margalis and Cox. Eastin, probably 2nd or 3rd if she hits it that day.
I think it’s laughable to say the American women have a shot to end the gold medal drought in this. Hosszu is going to run away with this one.
I think the reason they might have said they have a shot is simply because Hosszu has never won a medal at the Olympics. That’s just what I assume they were thinking. I don’t believe that to be the case, I think Hosszu is going to win the gold in WR time. Dirado and Eastin are my picks for USA.
Maya DiRado first
Ella Eastin slightly favorite for the second spot ahead of Melanie Margalis
Wasn’t Alex Walsh one of your picks?
Bobo likes to mention every swimmers in tip top shape so he can claim later that he made accurate predictions.
Alex Walsh in the 200 IM? Ok. You should read better my posts.
I’ve never mentioned her name in IM events!
I’ve picked her for a long time for a top 5 in the 200 back and may be a final in the 100 back.
Smoothswimmer, I’ve picked for a long time Maya DiRado first and Ella Eastin second.
And I’m not enough stupid to not update my predictions if necessary.
And yes, I’m not enough stupid to pick swimmers in bad shape! 😆
And I will claim nothing!
Bobo honey,
I feel blessed the great Bobo is finally wiling to respond. I wished you also addressed as vigorously many points brought up recently by other commenters about your obsessive and yet erroneous comments of “short US female sprinters”, “college swimmers’ disadvantages”, etc.
Will you?
At one point, he posted that he felt bad for Alex Walsh because she was swimming at the same time as Regan Smith, who was the future of backstroke in USA Swimming.
I sometimes disagree with Bobo but he is fun to read and his love of swimming shows. I wish more people added value rather than attitude – it diminishes the experience for everyone.
Oh, but you always claimed, repeatedly, whenever something you had said in the past even remotely came to realize.
I believe bobo had Megan small at one point
We know someone’s going to remind us if Alex Walsh or Megan Small qualifies 🙂
I expect Kathleen Baker to surprise in this event. Her best time was done at a mid-season meet in December, and she seems to have made great strides in this event relative to the backstrokes in the last year. Excited to see what she can do in this event in LC fully tapered.