What Are The Most Likely World Records To Be Broken In Paris? (Men’s Edition)

How excited are you for the Olympics? There are only six days left and I honestly am already mentally in Paris.

It may be the heat getting to my head, it may be my head giving up and just can’t take it anymore with numbers and math, but the same math has been knocking on my temporal lobe and whispering to me, “If you really don’t want to study me, then use me for that stuff, for swimming.”

So I’m asking again, how excited are you for the Olympics from 1 to “”I calculated the probability of breaking world records in each event?”

For each event, we calculated the relative difference between the current world record and the season’s best performance.

(The smaller the difference, the higher the probability that this difference will be canceled and a new record will be set at the Olympics.

MEN’S 400m FREE

• Word Record –Paul Biedermann, GER- 3:40.07 (2009)
• Fastest This Season – Lukas Maertens, GER – 3:40.33
• Top Seed –Lukas Maertens, GER – 3:40.33 (2024)
• RELATIVE DIFFERENCE (WR/Fastest This Season) = 0,12%

If I had to bet on one record that I think will fall at the Olympics (just jinxed it?), it would definitely be the men’s 400 free.

After the confirmed absence of reigning Olympic champion Ahmed Hafnaoui, the battle in this race looks to be between Germany’s Lukas Maertens and Australia’s Sam Short and Elijah Winnington.

The past has already witnessed swimmers coming close to the super suit Paul Biedermann‘s world record, who swam a time of 3:40.07 in Rome in 2009, beating Ian Thorpe‘s 2002 previous record by one one-hundredth.

The third all-time performer is Sun Yang, who swam several times under the 3:40.30 mark. However, for the past two/three years, three performers who have been very close to the record entered the 400 free scene.

The last of these three is Ahmed Hafnaoui, who swam 3:40.70 only a year ago in Fukuoka, but, as mentioned above, should be excluded.

The second candidate to break the record is the one who touched just 0,02 seconds ahead of Hafnaoui at the same World Championships in Fukuoka,securing gold with the eighth best performance ever in 3:40.68: Australian Sam Short.

The main favorite, however, having recorded the best time of the season, is Fukuoka bronze medalist Lukas Maertens. The German swam just 0,26 seconds from the world record at the National Championships last April, more than a second faster than anyone else this season.

So what distinguishes current events from past situations, besides the shadows on Yang’s performance, is the presence of tough competition. In addition, it should be mentioned that what makes Biedermann’s record stand out from the swims of the other two Olympians is a finish almost 2 seconds faster than the two contenders, at the cost of a slow start. This, then, gives hope that by the time the Olympic title oscillates between two equal rivals, the hunger to get to the top of Olympus will prompt extreme feats, such as a 50m finish at the German’s level in 2009.

If we sum up the excellent performances of the two swimmers, the Olympic audience, the competition between the two that will be tight and the awareness that they are one pass away from history, the result can only be noteworthy.

MEN’S 100m FREE

• World Record – Zhanle Pan, CHN – 46.80 (2024)
• Fastest This Season – Zhanle Pan, CHN – 46.80
• Second Fastest This Season – David Popovici, ROU – 46.88
• Top Seed – Zhanle Pan, CHN – 46.80 (2024)
• RELATIVE DIFFERENCE (WR/Second Fastest This Season) = 0.17%

Until less than two years ago, we would dream of hoping for a world record in the 100 free. Until less than two years ago, the men’s 100 free record was equivalent to 46.91, the time swam by Cesar Cielo in super suit in Rome at the 2009 World Championships. Thirteen years later, however, something is moving. A kid just 18 years old shakes up the swimming world and in the same pool of records surpasses the Brazilian: 46.86. Finally one can go back to thinking that that limit has not yet been reached.

And it has indeed. At the World Championships in Doha 2024, just a few months ago, China’s Zhanle Pan, who had already come close to Popovici’s standards in September 2023, recording 46.97, broke the world record in the blue ribbon event again. The new limit since February this year is 46.80. And it was again a class of 2004 who broke it.

We are again in a breakthrough situation though. The 100 free swum by Cesar Cielo was something of a meteor, as no one other than Caeleb Dressel (46.96) in 2019 had come any closer to his time in any considerable way.

In Paris, on the other hand, this event comes with two of the top players ever. Indeed, David Popovici has not swum below 46.90 just once, but he did it again at last month’s European Championships in Belgrade, where he won by clocking the third-fastest performance ever: 46.88.

The two favorites are joined by the third fastest swimmer of the season, 2003-born American Jack Alexy, who won his final at the U.S. Trials, after swimming the semi in 47.08. With this result, he ranks eighth fastest swimmer ever in the 100 free, tied with Kyle Chalmers, also competing in Paris with an entry time of 47.15.

What bodes best for another world record is David Popovici‘s statement after the European Championships in Belgrade:

“It was not on the schedule, This period of time hasn’t been really a taper one.”

What can we expect then from a David Popovici in full condition?

Perhaps all he will need is a slightly faster start, and rely on his usual 50m return faster than anyone else to go down in history again, and take the record that now belongs to the Chinese.

MEN’S 1500m FREE

• World Record – Sun Yang, CHN – 14:31.02 (2012)
• Fastest This Season – Daniel Wiffen, IRL – 14:34.07
• Top Seed – Bobby Finke, USA – 14:31.59 (2023)
• RELATIVE DIFFERENCE (WR/Fastest This Season) = 0.35%

This event is in many ways similar to the situation in the 400 m free.
In the heats of these Games-and hopefully for our eyes also in the finals – six out of the ten fastest swimmers ever in this distance will be competing. Among them, only two, Gregorio Paltrinieri (4th all-time) and Mykhailo Romanchuk (8th all-time)achieved their best times in 2022-not that long ago anyway-while the performances of the rest were swum between last year and the current year.

The swimmer who came closest to the world record only a year ago, again at the Fukuoka 2023 World Championships, is once again Ahmed Hafnaoui , whose 14:31.54 came within 0,52 of Sun Yang‘s 2012 time. Once again, however, we have to exclude the swimmer from the games, as he will not participate in the Games.

The athletes who will start in at the blocks, however, are not far from this performance at all, especially considering that the 1500meters is a very long race, which can be thought out and studied,but will always reserve some surprises. That is why the 0,57 seconds separating Bobby Finke‘s all-time best time, also achieved at the Fukuoka World Championships, as well as the first entry time in Paris, are really a breath of air. We could say that all it would take is a turn done a bit better, a slightly longer dive or a faster start to overcome this limit. However, each race is to itself, and it will be seen whether Bobby Finke will be in the condition to swim the times he swam a year ago in Fukuoka.

What is certain is that he will not be in bad company,because the fastest time of the season is Daniel Wiffen‘s personal best, making him the fifth best performer ever, three seconds behind the American. Three seconds in a 1,500 meters is not a lot. Especially when you consider that the Irishman set his best time at the World Championships in Doha, where he beat Teds’ Florian Wellbrock, also a candidate for the Paris podium, with a personal best of 14:34.89, touching the wall a full ten seconds ahead of him.

What could Wiffen do alongside Finke in the Olympic pool? Will the Irishman be intimidated by opponents whom he will not be able, as in the case of his best swims, to detach with a breakaway; or will he fight to the end, even against his Achilles heel at the 13th 100, for the craved record? And will the American, on the other hand, hide as always until the end, waiting to attack the leader, who, however, must have kept a high pace from the start if the goal is the world record; or will he be left behind?

Whatever combination of strategies is pursued, again, it is expected that by putting six of the fastest 1500-fresestyler ever in the same pool, moreover during an Olympics, something much more than good may come out.

MEN’S 200m IM

• World Record – Ryan Lochte, USA – 1:54.00 (2011)
• Fastest This Season – Shun Wang, CHN – 1:54.62
• Top Seed – Shun Wang, CHN – 1:54.62 (2023)
• RELATIVE DIFFERENCE (WR/Fastest This Season) = 0.59%

An interesting detail might be the free split. If Wang’s weak point is the breast, for Marchand it is the strength that sets him apart among the IM experts; and if for the Chinese the free finish is not a problem, the Frenchman’s best performance says the opposite about him, highlighting more than half a second of disadvantage in the final part of the race.

The interesting factor, however, is that Leon Marchand set this performance, which also represents the European Record, in the same edition of Worlds in which he broke the world record in the 400 IM. On that occasion, however, despite the fact that the race was a few days before the 200, his free split was noteworthy (as were all of them on the other hand). In fact, if we compare the times of the last 50m free swum by Marchand in the double distance, the clock turns out to be stopped at 28.39 seconds. Almost the same time swum in the 200. Of course, one must take into account that in Fukuoka, as in Paris, the athlete was and will be engaged in many events before he gets to the 200 IM, but there will also be the home crowd cheering on their favorite to push himself to new unexplored limits. On the flip side, or rather, in our favor, because regardless of who eventually breaks Lochte’s record, it will be a show for us, the Chinese has only this event on his schedule, which makes it all very interesting.

The 200 IM king’s record has stood for thirteen years, just as Cesar Cielo‘s record in the 100 free stood before a new generation Z athlete broke it. Coincidence?

MEN’S 200m BREAST

• World Record – Qin Haiyang, CHN – 2:05.48 (2023)
• Fastest This Season – Matthew Fallon, USA – 2:06.54
• Top Seed – Qin Haiyang, CHN – 2:05.48 (2023)
• RELATIVE DIFFERENCE (WR/Fastest This Season) = 0.84%

This race is the only other event where the relative difference between the world record and the first seasonal performance is below 1%. Despite this, however, I feel I must disagree with the math, and, personally speaking, say that the 200 breaststroke record will not be broken in Paris (That’s what she said).

This is because although the numbers clearly speak, Matthew Fallon‘s performance is more than one second away from Qin Haiyang‘s World record, and one second in four laps is a long time.

So the only one who might be able to break the mark again is Qin himself. The Chinese, however, swam his best 200 breaststroke of the season in September 2023, with a time of 2:07.03, and between the following October and April 2024 he settled on times above 2:08.

Is this all part of the plan and am I wrong? We will update in 9 days to know whether I should have trusted the math or not.

CATEGORY: ‘IF THESE RECORDS GET BROKEN I WILL DIVE INTO THE SEINE’

• I think that the MEN’S 200m FLY world record is safe. That’s because its holder, Hungary’s Kristof Milak has shown that he is not in his best form, with a season’s personal best almost 4 seconds away from his record of 1:50.34. In addition, the best performance of the year, the only one faster than Milak, is Tomoru Honda, with 1:53.15, also far from the record. The only factor that might contradict my opinion is called Leon Marchand. The Frenchman is entered with the third fastest time ever as the first seed in the Olympics, with 1:52.43. Will he amaze everyone again? If so, I confirm, he would deserve to see my dive into the Seine.
• Among the few world records from the 2009 Rome World Records that still stand are the MEN’S 200m BACK. Ryan Murphy‘s season’s best performance and Hubert Kos‘s first entry time are both on the 1:54-minute mark and do not make me believe in a possible world record. Also, it must be recalled that the only athletes who came close to Aaron Peirsol‘s time of 1:51.92, dropping below the 1:52 barrier are Ryan Lochte, now retired, and Ryosuke Irie, who did not qualify for these Games.
• Similar discussion as above for the MEN’S 800m FREE, whose record dates back to Rome 2009, when Zhang Lin swam 7:32.12. This time is 8 seconds faster than the season’s best performance, by Daniel Wiffen. In fact, even the best entry time, Sam Short‘s 7:37.76, seems far from reaching that standard.

MOST LIKELY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN

Percentages refer to the relative difference between the current world record and the best performance of the season