TSC Power Rankings: Women's Mid-Season Updates

With the vast majority of the college swim teams through with major competition before they dive into intense holiday training, now is a good time to update our TSC Power Rankings.

Recall that these rankings are not done by “polling,” rather after discussion and debate with some of our closest swim geek compadres, they are chosen. The basis is heavily rooted in NCAA performance; always with a watchful eye towards the present, though.

Doing these rankings in-season, while aiming for a long-term outlook can be a dicey proposition. It involves some inferences and educated guesses, but until coaches are willing to fully disclose their season plans (unlikely to be anytime soon), educated guesses is the best that we can get.

This round, we’ll highlight a “surprise” performer who has gone above and beyond season expectations. These will generally fall into two categories – either an under-the-radar swimmer who is having a breakout year, or a top-level swimmer who has added a new skill that will be very valuable come March.

The number in parenthesis is the team’s standing in our previous power rankings.

1. Cal Golden Bears – Surprise Swimmer: Kaylin Bing (previously #1)

Aside from Leverenz and what she did at Winter Nationals, the Cal women didn’t seem to be at a full rest at the Georgia Invitational. Leverenz is their only swimmer who tops National Rankings right now (200 breast), so it would be easy to downgrade them a few spots, but their money maker is (as it was last year) the relays. They’ve still got some work to do to bring their free relays up to where they were last year, though. That drives up Bing’s importance – she was not the biggest name swimmer in Cal’s freshman class, though in hindsight maybe she should’ve been. She’s already going lifetime bests of 22.7/49.9.

2. Arizona Wildcats – Surprise Swimmer: Emma Darlington (previously #2)

Margo Geer has looked very good early, as has Alyssa Anderson. In fact, this Wildcat squad has had good swims in every event, aside from the IM’s. The weakest relay spot they have so far this season (based purely on times we’ve seen) might actually be the breaststrokes…and with Ellyn Baumgardner on deck, we know that won’t hold true at year’s end. This is a well-built, complete Wildcat squad. Darlington isn’t a huge surprise in the sense that she’s been good before, but for her to be swimming as well as she is already off of last year’s shoulder injury (her 49.21 is a career-best). Arizona is putting together relay depth similar to what Cal had last year, and if you buy the mantra that “relays win Championships,” be on alert for an upset.

3. Georgia Bulldogs – Surprise Swimmer: Kristen Shickora (previously #4)

Next year’s Georgia freshman class is a huge group, but this year’s is making sure that fans remember how good they are too – especially Amber McDermott. The names that are doing it for the Bulldogs maybe don’t carry as much sway as last year’s team, but swimmers like Michelle McKeehan, Melanie Margalis and Jana Mangimelli are becoming leaders on this team. Wendy Trott looks the part of a senior going for four-straight mile titles. Lauren Harrington gives them a true butterflier, something they missed in previous years. Jordan Mattern is fitting in well in the 200 frees (top-10 in the country with a 1:44.9). Megan Romano has been as good as expected in the 100 and 200 frees, though her 100 back was just a notch below that.

4. Stanford Cardinal – Surprise Swimmer: Sam Woodward (previously #3)

Slowly but surely freshman Maddy Schaeffer has been making her big impact on college swimming. That’s helping the Cardinal carry on a very strong sprint group, and with three 50 freestylers ranked in the top 10, they’ll be title contenders in that relay. Sam Woodward’s 52.0 in the 100 fly in Austin was huge for this team, because it frees up Felicia Lee as an option for the backstroke leg of the medleys. They move down a slot because that backstroke is a little shaky, and the breaststrokers are really in trouble early on (Jamie Bruce’s 1:03 is the best on the team this year). They need comebacks from Kerry Kraemer and Katie Olsen in a big way. Oh yeah, and Maya Dirado is really fast.

5. Auburn Tigers – Surprise Swimmer: Haley Krakoski (previously #6)

Anna Vanderpool-Wallace continues to be a stud, and at this point she seems to be only chasing history. Olivia Scott has come up huge with a school record, and #1-ranked, time in the 100 fly as only a sophomore. Lauren Norberg has stepped her game up as well, having already gone a career-best 1:00.37 in the 100 breast. With Emily Bos swimming strong in the backstrokes early this year, the Tigers have a top-two 400 medley relay developing (a far cry better than their 11th place at NCAA’s last year). After being on the exhibition squad at SEC’s last year, Krakoski has stepped up as a primary relay piece for the Tigers.

6. USC Trojans – Surprise Swimmer: Kasey Carlson (previously #9)

While we can’t overreact too much to the full-taper performances that the Trojans did in Austin, we definitely underrated their individual scoring potential. It looks like nobody is going to best Katinka Hosszu in her three events, which is worth 120 points already (which is halfway to a top-6 finish). Between Kasey Carlson (with the addition of a great 200 breaststroke), Haley Anderson, and a slew of 200 butterfliers, (including Tanya Krisman), the Trojans could put up 200 or more points in individual events alone. They still need to find one more elite sprint anything-er to fill out their medleys – Carlson, Yumi So, and Hosszu make up a very versatile three legs, but with one more stepping up in any of the four legs, they could poke into the top 5.

7. Texas Longhorns – Surprise Swimmer: Kelsey Amundsen (previously #5)

This Texas team has senior Karlee Bispo as the focal point, and with some strong relays around her. Bispo currently ranks top in the country in the 200 free, and looked very good in all of her swims at the Texas Invite. Kelsey Amundsen has looked very good early this season, which gives the Longhorns a second big-time sprinter (48.80 in the 100 flat-start). What’s most encouraging is that the Longhorns seem to have tweaked their strategy and held back a bit at their December invite (though they were still very fast in certain places). Hopefully, that will lead to stronger performances at NCAA’s this year.

8. Florida Gators – Surprise Swimmer: Natasha Fung (previously #8)

Moreso than any other team in the top 10, we haven’t seen any sort of a mid-season rest from Florida, as is the norm. Beisel still looks like she’s going to be in the running for three top-3 finishes (if she chooses her event schedule wisely). Crippen has been behind pace on both her 200 fly and 200 back, but it’s too soon to be concerned about where she’s going. Sarah Bateman has been lights-out for the Gators in the sprints all year, which is exactly what she needs to be.

9. Teas A&M Aggies – Surprise Swimmer: Ashley Adams (previously #7)

The Aggies drop in the mid-season rankings despite being crazy-good at the Tennessee Invite. Larson looks even better than last year, A&M’s distance freestyle crew is as deep as anybody’s, and Cammille Adams/Rita Medrano are the country’s best 1-2 punch in the 200 fly. Two major injuries are going to cost them in March, though – Sarah Henry had a relapse of her ACL issues from her senior season in high school, and Lili Ibanez (who we said was the key pre-season) suffered a severe back injury in a bike accident. Both are expected to be out for the season. That leaves them with nobody ranked in the top 40 in the country in the 50 through 200. Their medleys are awesome, but their free relays will have to develop some cross-event speed (from the likes of Larson, McElhaney, etc) to even score. Look out for Cammille’s twin, Ashley, who has been a 16:12 in the mile already (top 10 in the country).

10. Tennessee Volunteers – Surprise Swimmer: Molly Hannis (previously #11)

Like Florida, the Volunteers trained hard through their hosted November invite, so externally there hasn’t been a ton of excitement about their times. Jenny Connolly, their star, has been right on target (or even a touch slower) than she was at the same meets last year. In some cases, that can be a bad thing, but in the situation of a team that doesn’t rest mid-season, I think this means an extra heavy-duty workload.

11. Indiana Hoosiers – Surprise Swimmer: Justine Ress (previously #10)

Allysa Vavra is not mentioned as much as some of the country’s other great 400 IM’ers, but as the tide rises she continues to go with it – she was a 4:04.60 at the Georgia Invitational. They felt the absence of Brenna MacLean in Georgia. The Hoosiers’ 800 free relay is lethal, but they still need to find more sprinters to go with Margaux Farrell. The younger Ress is showing that she got Dad’s genes as well, and is swimming awfully well to the tune of a top-10 ranking in (surprise, surprise) the 200 back.

12. Missouri Tigers – Surprise Swimmer: Cassie Cunningham (previously #16)

Missouri has matured to the point, as a program, that they are more than just Dominique Bouchard (though she’s swum very well). They’re even more than just Bouchard and Florida transfer Shara Stafford (who has also swum very well). They are developing an awesome nucleus that includes Cassie Cunningham, who is a top-10 backstroker and is also making huge improvements in her sprint freestyles as well. Last year, they didn’t even qualify a relay for NCAA’s. This year, they could score 3 or 4 (they’ve got 4 ranked in the country’s top 8 this year). And don’t forget about their diver Loren Figueroa, who will score huge points at NCAA’s as well.

13. Minnesota Golden Gophers – Surprise Swimmer: Tori Simenec (previously #12)

With the Minnesota Grand Prix hosted in meters this year (that’s where the Gophers do their big fall taper), their yards times haven’t matched those of other rested swimmers, but they’ve already had a ton of career-best times this season. Haley Spencer has been ominously absent, but when she’s back in competition these Gophers will look a lot better. Tess Behrens has also had a wonderful semester this year, as the medleys start to fill out.

14. Virginia Cavaliers – Surprise Swimmer:  (previously #13)

It’s really been pretty hard to peg Virginia down this year. They swam above-average at the Georgia Invite, but the majority of their top swimmers (Naurath, Perdue) were way off of what they went at the same meet last year. Naurath had a good 500 free (4:40), but was only the 3rd-best 200 butterflier on her own team. Perdue was .6 off in her 100, and 2 seconds off in her 200. Others, though, like Meredith Cavalier, swam way above normal at this meet. Cavalier not only continues to improve her 200 back, but her sprints (free and back) have come a long way as well. It’s almost as though they’ve got two distinct rest groups.

15. Wisconsin Badgers – Surprise Swimmer: Ally Loper (previously #14)

Wisconsin doesn’t have any single relay this season that is as good as their National runner-up 200 medley was last year, but much improved depth means that they could score all 5 relays (instead of just 4 like last season). At the very least, they should have more swimmers capable of scoring individually at Big Ten’s and avoid their 7th-place debacle from last year.

16. LSU Tigers – Surprise Swimmer:  (previously #15)

Amanda Kendall’s ferocious start to the season, long course and short, bumps the Tigers up in the rankings. Not only has she been swimming well, but she’s pulling her teammates up with her – swimmers like Sara Haley in the 200 fly. On top of that, LSU’s 400 free relay is ranked 11th in the country, and is looking like it might sneak into an A Final at NCAA’s. Amber Carter has already dropped two seconds off of her career-best in the 100 free as a freshman.

17. Arizona State Sun Devils – Surprise Swimmer: Jaclyn Chavez (previously #17)

The Sun Devils looked awesome at the Arena Invitational, where they were 2nd only to Cal. The usual suspects, Caroline Kuczynski and Rebecca Ejdervik, have been swimming well, but there have been a few surprises, including Jaclyn Chavez, who is already going career-bests in the short freestyles. Michigan transfer Mattie Kukors hasn’t quite adjusted yet, but is already a contributor as a member of their “A” 800 free relay. Diver Hailey Casper is having a big sophomore year as well (she won the Wildcat diving invitational).

18. Maryland – Surprise Swimmer: Melanie Busch (previously #19)

The Terrapins, still fighting to save their program, will focus down and have inspired performances in March (ala the Clemson men). Early this year, Megan Lafferty has shown she’s ready to step up and lead this team not just with a strong 100 fly, but with good performances in the 50 and 100 freestyles as well. Based on last year, she  has a huge taper for ACC’s, and holds it fairly well for NCAA’s, so don’t be too concerned that she’s not toping the national rankings yet. Carolyn Fittin, who we said needed to have a breakout year preseason, is doing just that by blowing away her post-rubber career bests.

19. North Carolina – Surprise Swimmer: Danielle Silverling (previously #18)

The Tarheels are being carried by sophomore Stephanie Peacock right now. She had a great freshman year last year, and should shoulder much of the individual scoring load at NCAA’s. The absence of junior Carly Smith from the Tar Heels’ lineup this season has been felt in a big way. Haven’t heard anything about her situation, but they’ll need her to come back strong to continue to hold in our top 20.

20. SMU – Surprise Swimmer: Genny Konicke (previously unranked)

Could the Pony Express be back in Dallas? The SMU women were one of the best programs in the country in the late 1990’s, and this very experienced team is pushing its way back into the national picture. Therese Svendsen has been lightning-fast in the backstrokes (#2 in the country in the 100), and Nina Rangelova is swimming well also. Genny Konicke, a former Arizona Wildcat, has already bettered her best time from last year in the 100, and all of the above are versatile enough to make great sprint free relays as well.

Missed it By That Much. Purdue Boilermakers – Surprise Swimmer: Rhiannon Sheets (previously unranked)

Purdue graduated a ton from last year’s team, including their best diver and two of their best swimmers. The Boilermakers haven’t missed a beat early this year, however, with freshman Rhiannon Sheets already cracking two school records (100/200 fly) and a total of five Purdue freshman records (50/100/200 free) at the Ohio State Invite. Lauren Roth and Chelsea Fogle have also set school records. Arkansas transfer Carly Mercer has also been a huge surprise. This team would be well within the top 20, except for the Olympic year curse. They’ve got about three All-American divers on campus, but they’re all redshirting to focus on training for London.