SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers if Regan Smith‘s in-season 2:03 made her the favorite in the 200 fly at the 2023 World Championships:
Question: Who is your early pick in the women’s 200 fly at the World Championships
RESULTS
- Regan Smith – 50.8%
- Summer McIntosh – 41.1%
- Zhang Yufei – 6.4%
- Other – 1.6%
After rolling to the world title last summer, and then becoming just the second swimmer to crack the 2:05 barrier since the 2016 Olympics in March, Summer McIntosh was the clear-cut favorite for gold in the women’s 200 fly at the 2023 World Championships.
McIntosh won the 2022 title by nearly nine-tenths of a second in 2:05.20, and at 16, has only been improving since then, getting down to 2:04.70 at the Canadian Trials earlier this year while also breaking world records in the 400 free and 400 IM in stunning fashion.
With McIntosh seemingly distancing herself from the world in the event, with reigning Olympic champion Zhang Yufei‘s form a bit of a question mark, Regan Smith shook up the 200 fly landscape earlier this month at the Sun Devil Open.
Smith, who has been on fire all season since making the move to Arizona State University to train under Bob Bowman, unleashed a time of 2:03.87 two weeks ago in Tempe to break the super-suited American Record in what was the fourth-fastest swim of all-time.
All of a sudden, Smith seemed like the odds-on favorite for gold in the event at the World Championships. Or did she?
The 21-year-old has been inconsistent in performing at her best under pressure, and McIntosh’s improvement curve has been rapid and it’s easy to see her dropping time in Fukuoka. There’s also Zhang to consider, who went 2:03.86 in Tokyo but hasn’t approached that time since.
Smith’s swim was also nearly a second and a half faster than she’d ever been—she was previously 2:05.30 at the Tokyo Games—and McIntosh has five swims 2:05.8 or faster over the last 15 months. Did Smith catch lightning in a bottle? Will she be able to recreate that?
More than half of SwimSwam readers are picking Smith to win the event at Worlds, as she earned 50.8 percent of the vote, while McIntosh followed with 41.1 percent (Smith also still has to qualify for the U.S. team).
Zhang followed with 6.4 percent, while another swimmer entered the conversation this week, as Elizabeth Dekkers put up a big best time of 2:05.26 at the Australian Trials in Melbourne.
We also can’t overlook Hali Flickinger, who also trains under Bowman and has stood on the 200 fly podium at the last two World Championships in addition to the Tokyo Olympics.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Who will win the most female relays in Fukuoka:
Loading ...
ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE
The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
Dekkers will be interesting. She recently scored a one-second PB in this, and has a great back-end. If she is in close distance to McIntosh and Smith at 150, might surprise everyone and follow up Schipper in this event. Not saying that she is definitely the favourite, as McIntosh and Smith have gone faster, but she is improving in leaps and bounds, and maybe she could improve enough for a world title.
But putting her aside, I think McIntosh will win. She’ll race much smarter this time and Smith is probably the benefactor of the bias regarding recency. She didn’t set that time very long ago, and she did have a much easier path to getting that time. McIntosh will… Read more »
I think it’s cool that this event, which has kind of been a dud for a decade or more, is suddenly popping off. I don’t remember ever being excited to watch the women’s 200 fly.
Pretty sure Mcintosh’s race strategy will be different she had no competition at Can trials thus why she went out very fast in the first 100 and died a bit at the end don’t think she’ll go out that fast at worlds
I voted summer , smith won’t replicate that time at worlds under pressure I am inclined to think zhang yufei is in it as well regan badly faded in the last 50 last year.
Low key one of the best races of the meet
Summer McIntosh as underdog. As a gambler I would know what to do with that. Generalities overwhelm specifics.
It is idiotic to doubt a prodigy. One of the Australians here makes repeated comments that are phrased not to be blatant anti Summer but that’s exactly what they are, given the persistence. It’s reached Yohzik level dependability. The rooting interest against her will equal the desperation for Douglass to lose during NCAAs.
Summer would never be a plus price in a betting market.
Who are you talking about? From what I can tell, the Australians seem quite respectful of Summer’s abilities.
theoretical fourth option for this week’s poll
australia and usa each win 1 relay outright, then tie for gold in the 3rd
That would be epic. And shut up all the trolls.
I think that AUS will win 4x100m Free and 4x200m Free. They’ve got the world leader(s) individually (O’Callaghan), and also hold the world records and come in with stacked teams. 4×100 will be an easy win, as we have 3 swimmers that have gone sub-53 this year, and one that came close to that, the US will just have good splits but nothing special. Not ruling the US out for 4×200 because they’ve got Ledecky and such but Australia is in prime position to win The 4x100m medley will be a bit iffy for them, considering how Harkin would need to throw down a massive split to keep them in the conversation, but I’m not ruling them out yet, as… Read more »
I wouldn’t begrudge anyone thinking this, esp given her two fastest 200 backs are way ahead of the rest of her swims.
(I know I know, this wasn’t at a major taper meet like the 2 backs were I’m not saying I’m convinced by it.)