SwimSwam International Olympians Draft, Part 2

The following is a lightly edited transcript of a Slack chat that took place over the last three weeks. This is part 2 of 2. The first 4 rounds were in part 1 which can be found here. People’s opinions expressed below are their own. I’m certain some of you will disagree with some of them. Feel free to comment why our picks were so unwise or why my team is the best.

This is a draft of non-American athletes.

We previously did a draft of US Olympians which can be found here: Part 1, Part 2

The teams after the first 4 rounds:

***Start of Round 5***

Braden Keith My other pick is Danas Rapsys from Lithuania. No big relay chances, but at 23 he’s already been best-times in the 100, 200, and 400 frees in-season this year. He’s got 7 medal-worthy races depending on what he ratchets-down on, and could wind up being a great IM’er as well.

(If it mattered, I would’ve made those picks in the opposite order, for what it’s worth) (editor’s note: this is a call back to the end of round 4 where Braden picked Nandor Nemeth)

karl [Darn] I really wanted Nemeth. Nice pick.

andrew In the 8 rounds of the US draft we picked 9 swimmers under age 20. 6 of those 9 were picked in the last 4 rounds. In this draft, 1 pick into the 5th round, we’ve drafted 10 swimmers under age 20. Theories on why? Are the international youngsters just better?

Retta What I want to know is, who’s gonna pick Sahnoune??

karl I think we like to believe (since most? all? of us are Americans) that the U.S. swimmers in their prime will last longer/be ready for 2020. Some sort of bias going on, combined with the fact that I just feel like we probably know less about international stars than the ones we know about here in the States. Also, U.S. is wayyyyy more crowded up top. Safer picking between Chupkov/Rylov than, like, Miller/Cordes/Wilson/Andrew/Whitley/Prenot/Grevers/Murphy/Pebley/Ress

Jared I think Karl brings up a good point. I think the scoring format in this draft values high-risk, high-reward picks more, which seems to boost young kids who could rise
And I think there are more veterans making multiple US Olympic teams than there are swimmers repeating as Olympic medalists. If that makes sense.

Reid I’m having trouble on this one. Gonna watch some Budapest race videos and then make up my mind. #studyhardbruh

Lauren Ugh

Morgan P Feels like a bit of it is just the makeup of the US team, too. I mean, at this point, the margins for Dressel, Ledecky, King, and Murphy, Kalisz, and Townley have over the field in their best events is prettttttty large…
That, and the scoring system (top 2 vs top 3)

Reid I’m going to go with Ben Proud. May or may not pan out two years from now, but he’s been killing it in 2018. I really want to see him bring his 100 up to scratch and hopefully contribute to the GB 4 x 100 free relay.

Jared I wondered if Proud would go with the very first pick after his 21.1 haha. He certainly shot up my board yesterday

Retta Too bad 50s aren’t in Tokyo

Reid I’d been considering him for a couple rounds, but have preferred to select swimmers that could be medal contenders in more than one event. But if Proud gets a silver, that’s a nice payoff.

Retta 50.03 at Euro Meet this year……

Reid In the 100? Yeah, that’s what’s kept me away from him. But what the heck. If he gets on the podium individually in the 50 it will be worth the pick.

andrew If he is ever going to figure out the 100, it should’ve clicked by now. Don’t think he ever gets there in that event. Top tier in the 50 is enough to justify the pick at this stage.

karl He just went 50.5 lol he’s drop dead 50 speed
Still a great 50 podium spot chance though

Retta That’s what I mean…. 🙂

spencer I’m going to take Bronte Campbell for my 5th round pick. I can rely on her for at least one relay medal, and with her 52.27 100 free from the Commonwealth Games, I think she’s looking good for the next couple years.

karl Ugh

Retta Fratus is much like Proud in straight up 50…although he’s been 49-low of late at least
I think 2020 Bronte will thank 2018 Bronte for taking a pan pacs break!

andrew Don’t feel too bad Karl. B. Campbell was never making it to you. If she fell to me, that was my pick. The main concern with her are the injuries. After Commonwealths she said her body was “held together by sticky tape and physios”
Instead I’ll go with Yasuhiro Koseki. Double medal threat in the breasts. Hopefully he stops punching people by 2020 and they let him swim.

Retta Andrew, you’ve just now made me frustrated.

Lauren True frustration is getting 8th pick twice

karl I’ve picked some current talents, I’m going to start picking some potential stars. I’ll take Ajna Kesely
Because I’m daring and nothing in life is real

andrew As someone who’s already picked two women’s distance swimming teenagers, I both approve of that choice and hope that it fails.

Morgan P I’ll take Bruno Fratus. Nothing if not consistent in the 50, plus Brazil should have some solid relays in 2020

Jared I like quite a few vets left… But I need some young, high-ceiling types. I’ll go Qin Haiyang with my next pick

Lauren Schooling
Rolling the dice

Jared Oh, Lauren drafting a Bolles swimmer… I’m flabbergasted

Lauren Yeah Also an Olympic champ!

andrew Santo scored more points at NCAAs this year than Schooling. Keep picking Bolles guys?

Jared Santo also doesn’t have a country yet
Or does he? I assume the Italy thing is going to happen, but I forget where it is officially right now

Lauren Ncaas and the Olympics are very different
See David Nolan
(Who I always wanted to see focus on long course cause I think he could’ve been a beast)

Retta That’s kinda who popped in my head when people here were throwing out possible 1:55 2IMs for Dressel….

Lauren Yeah but Dressel has already proved himself in long course. I’m pretty confident he could do that.

Retta Need more 200 LCM data from him.

Retta Katsumi Nakamura

***End of Round 5***

Round 5 Summary

***Start of Round 6***

Retta ….6th round for me is Kromowidjojo

Jared I do think breaststroke is the biggest ? for Dressel’s 200m IM. He’s pretty much admitted he mostly excels at pullouts.
In a straight 50 breast, he could at least rely on his otherworldly start. No such thing in the breast leg of an IM

Lauren Mykhailo Romanchuk

Jared Thank God! He was pretty high on my board at this point but I cannot cannot cannot take another male distance swimmer

andrew He was my next pick if he fell that far. Best gold medal chance left with multi event upside.

Jared Then it’s back to me. These events are absolutely brutal, but i’ll take Pernille Blume. She’s swimming great at the moment, hopefully gets me some points with potential gold medal upside

karl Jared NO

andrew Now that Blume’s gone, Retta why Kromowidjojo over Blume? The relay upside doesn’t seem worth the youth and better recent form for Blume.

Jared I considered her or Ranomi last round… Then got terrified they’d both go before it came back to me again

karl I can see picking Kromo first because of relays. Dutch 4×100 FR R will be more of a medal threat, plus they have great male sprinters so could be in for a mixed relay medal, too. But the relay argument only holds up if Heemskerk and Kromo can still deliver in two years. Blume is younger, less of a Danish relay potential but they have some young talent that could blossom.

Retta Kromo was more of a gut thing….she is such a racer, veteran, consistent….plus relays.
I didn’t want to be mega- influenced by Sette Colli when Tokyo is still 2 yrs out.

andrew Karl, I think it’s a stretch to call the Dutch medal contenders in the mixed relay. They’re great at the mixed free relay, but that’s not at the Olympics. Only the mixed medley was added. In my opinion, the US, Russia, Australia, Great Britain, China, and Canada are all well ahead of the Netherlands in the mixed medley.

karl Oof I’m off my Tokyo event knowledge

Morgan P Cam McEvoy. Picking for 2020 knowing that he’s not swimming at Pan Pacs. Also knowing that I’m throwing wayyyyy too many chips in the Aussie basket, so I’ll be prepared to be extremely disappointed in Tokyo.

karl I’m so stuck between like five people.
Pedro Spajari. Brazilians should be in it for a 4×100 free relay medal, and he’s a 47.9 at age 20/21 in the 100. I think the medals behind Dressel in the 100 free are ALL over the place between a bunch of contenders.

McEvoy might be the best individual gold medal shot left, considering talent at face value TODAY. So that’s a good pick. And will probably anchor both relays which could both medal.
Best gold medal shot besides Dean Farris who isn’t able to be picked in this draft**

andrew Kaylee McKeown. 4th at worlds in the 200 back last year as a 16 year old. The 200 back is not the right event to chase wonderteens in – there are a million of them in that event, but McKeown is pretty good in the 100 as well. She’s dipped under 1:00 multiple times. With McKeown’s youth -Seebohm is 10 years older- I’ll gamble that maybe she steals a relay spot.

karl Good gamble, esp considering Minna Atherton has not done much since she seemed poised to overtake Seebohm a couple years ago.

spencer I’m going to take Guilherme Costa. When I think of Brazilian swimmers I don’t typically think distance, but I have a good feeling about him. He’s young, improving steadily, and is good at negative splitting, which to me is all the ingredients for a distance dark horse. If his 800 can get down far enough into the 7:40s, I think there will be a good shot he can develop his 400 enough to at least make the final in Tokyo

Jared Costa is a great pick I didn’t even think of

Reid Li Zhuhao for me. He’s young and steadily improving, and he could very well final in both the 100 and 200 fly, with medal potential in either, though he favors the 100. China could also have a dangerous 4 x 100 medley relay, if they get their breast and free legs sorted out.

spencer I just have a really good gut feeling about Costa that I can’t necessarily put into words. I really think he will be the Brazilian and South American male breakout distance star and be highly competitive on the world stage

andrew He’s certainly not the obvious next pick among the remaining distance guys. There are at least 5 guys under age 23 that have times that jump off the page more than Costa’s. But who knows? Maybe it works out for you. Costa is still really young at 19.

Retta Ugh, thought Zhuhao would slide by!!

Reid Surprised he did for this long!

spencer Yeah I agree he’s not the obvious pick, that’s why I felt like I needed to justify it more than my others. My honest reasoning though is that I look at him, his progression, and how he races, and I just get a strong feeling that he’s a star in the making.

karl I love deciding on gut. It doesn’t work very often but I do it regardless

Braden Keith Every time I think I’ve found my pick, they’ve already been chosen. This is getting really hard.
Would you all believe that we’ve made it this far in the draft, and there’s a 21-year old World Record holder, who will be swimming in front of a home crowd, still on the list??

karl NOOO

Braden Keith Ippei Watanabe is my next pick.

karl Literally 30 seconds ago that dawned on me.

Lauren LOL
I just pictured Karl screaming nooooooo out loud

Braden Keith Andrew – we’re not picking this way, but I think when we score this, we should score it once by what you declared, and once if we had scored all A-Finalists
Could give a good metric for how much a team missed by.
If someone bombed their picks, or if someone was really close to a lot of good picks.
Also, I’m going to win this draft, and it’s not even going to be close.

karl I like that. Would it count if a relay swimmer makes a final? Or did we decide something about a prelims-only relay swimmer

Braden Keith Meh, I dunno
We can fight out those details eventually

andrew There is already a single point for making an A final in the rules

Braden Keith Yeah, but I’m thinking some kind of 9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring format
Just for funsies.
Maybe 10-8-7-5-4-3-2-1

Retta Ippei scares me, though….*could* be another Yamaguchi….one WR & done
Koseki has been more consistent…would have rather had gotten him

andrew Koseki is also better in the 100

Retta Word

Jared 200 breast for whatever reason feels like a “lightning in a bottle” event. Someone can have a huge breakout swim one year and then never come close to it again. For men and women.

Braden Keith Yeah…except Watanabe is still #1 in the world this year at 2:07.56 😉
So the doomsday prophecies haven’t proven true yet.

spencer He did also break the world record last year, then go get 3rd at Worlds though. He might not be the best high pressure swimmer

andrew I like the pick, but it’s a soft world record. In the past 18 months Chupkov, Koseki, Haiyang, and Cordes have all been within a second of it.

***End of Round 6***

Round 6 Summary

***Start of Round 7***

Braden Keith To open the 7th round, I’ll take Shayna Jack. She may not qualify for a single individual swim, but she swam on 4 medal-winning relays at Worlds, all of which are Olympic relays, with an upside of Australia getting their stuff together and that becoming a couple of golds and a couple of silvers.

Retta Annoyed. Utterly, totally annoyed.

Reid I’ll take Rebecca Smith. She could make the final of the 100 fly individually, but I won’t make any predictions on her getting ahead of Oleksiak. Also, she could be on all three relays, each of which has a great shot at getting on the podium.

andrew Both Jack and Smith were only on 1 relay at Commonwealth Games. That seems like a red flag for swimmers drafted for their relay potential. No prelims at that meet though.

spencer I’ll take Ilaria Cusinato. She’s very young, with great potential to medal in the 400 IM, and she should at the very least final in the 200 IM. Also there’s always the possibility of IM’ers developing in other events.

Jared The IMs are so interesting to me right now. So much depends on how fast Hosszu/Belmonte age. And then there are so many intriguing candidates behind them

spencer I agree. 4:34 is a great 400 IM time, and it really makes me wonder if Belmonte can hang on
I don’t have much concern about Hosszu, but you never know. The 400 IM is an unforgiving event.

andrew Florian Wellbrock. Not much history of success at major championships, but 14:40 is top 10 all time in the 1500. He has a shot to final in the 800 as well. He’s been having some open water success recently, so I’m concerned he’s more focused on going up in distance than down. Regardless, I expect the 1500 will remain a focus even if he doubles the open water instead of the 800.

Jared Here’s something I’m curious about: how many distance swimmers have gone and how many of them wouldn’t have been drafted without the new events
Feels like a distance-heavy draft. And this from the guy who took Detti/Paltrinieri in the first two rounds

andrew The US men aren’t super strong in the distance events. Over the last 18 months, the top American in the 1500 is True Sweetser at 19th. In the 800 it’s Clark Smith at 12th. That makes international swimmers more tempting.

The 800 and 1500 are kind of redundant. Nearly everyone who is good at one is good at the other. Most distance swimmers who were a medal threat in one before are now automatically a double medal threat. Aside: this why I thought the correct fix to the men/women Olympic events mismatch was to cut the women’s 800 and add the 1500 instead of adding the men’s 800 and women’s 1500.

karl Nao Horomura. 1:53 long course flyer with home turf who I think is only 19.

Retta Let’s hope his shoulder heals!

Braden Keith Andrew – I wonder if the redundancy will change moving forward. That might be a rules-driven redundancy – 400 swimmers haven’t historically had a reason to go up to 800, but for 1500 swimmers it’s just a natural second event. Gabrielle Detti looks like he might be a 400-800 guy, for example.

andrew Maybe. Training incentives are certainly different now. One analog for this situation is DII. In DII, the yards equivalents of the 800 and 1500, the 1000 and the 1650, are both events at NCAAs. This year at DII nationals, the top 4 men in the 1000 and 1650 were the same, in the same order, and the top 8 men in the 1000 were all in the top 11 in the 1650. The top 8 women in the 1000 all finished in the top 9 in the 1650 and 3 of the top 4 in both events were the same. The talent pool in DII isn’t as deep as the Olympics, but it’s the best real world example I can think of and the events look pretty redundant there.

Morgan P Gonna take a shot on Yang Junxuan. 16 years old, 1:56.8 in the 200 and 54.26 in the 100 at Chinese Nationals.

Jared Anyone on that Chinese 4×2 is a good bet to score at least something

Retta Whoever took Kesely….4:05.89 400 in Helsinki. fire.
Kolesnikov tied (!) for 1back gold

karl BOTH mine : )

Jared Well then I get a guy I’ve been high on for awhile, Nicolo Martinenghi. Just call me Team Italy in this draft I guess

Morgan P Done haha

karl Jared > : (

Lauren I’m going to throw my phone across this room

karl It’s almost as if you all want to win this draft and you don’t want me to

Robert Gibbs You won’t!

karl I thought this was a collaborative effort
for me to win

Braden Keith Martinenghi has been on my list. But, the groin injury makes me nervous. A breaststroker with a groin injury…just too high risk.

Jared I wish there was a 50 breast in Tokyo (for lots of reasons). But he’s as good a medal threat as anyone in the 100. And if a certain unnamed fly/free type changes representation, Italy could actually have a decent medley
The injury could be scary. But what breaststroker hasn’t tweaked his groin at one point or another? Hopefully it’s wear and tear more so than a structural injury

Braden Keith ‘Wear and Tear” are scary words to hear about an 18-year old. He hasn’t raced since December, so probably worse than a tweak, but at least they’re being cautious with him – maybe a positive sign for his recovery.
Still not enough upside to me to be worth the risk. He’s an outside chance at 1 silver and 2 individual finals, at best. Italy probably isn’t getting a relay medal.

karl I like Italy going forward on men’s and women’s side. Ceccon and Burdisso look like they could become really great, Italy’s men have a bunch of 100/200 freestylers. Panziera and Cusinato on the up, I know Italy has a 13 year old girl, Benedetta Pilato, who has been 31.7 this year in the 50 breast
It is scary though. Think about Cassidy Bayer… diff injury, diff swimmer, diff stroke. But she’s really been derailed by the knee stuff.

Braden Keith In Jared’s world, breaststroke medals are worth double.

Jared Are they not for everyone else?
Ceccon is super interesting to me. Where does he develop best? He’s almost a Michael Andrew where he’s good at lots of things and I can’t tell where his focus should/does lie

karl Didn’t realize he was a 2:00 IMer. I think his backstroke at a 53-high is his best right now, but could be a sprint freestyler, could do big things in IM.

Jared I don’t think a relay medal is out of the question. Ceccon/Martinenghi/Codia/Condorelli would be a fast group with lots a room to grow between the juniors on the front

Braden Keith That’s a lot of “ifs” to place on a breaststroker with a groin injury….

Jared Depending, of course, on Martinenghi’s health and Santo’s eligibility.
Exactly. To me, it’s not great probability but great potential on that relay

Braden Keith How much are bronze medals in relays worth?

Jared 1

andrew 1 point. Same as an individual A final.

Jared So my pick is more about whether he can win a 100 breast medal. (I’ve been pretty consistently valuing individuals way higher than relays so far. Nobody but Americans will score significant relay points in this scoring format)

Lauren Santo Condorelli. I think they have a shot at bronze in both 400 relays. Also a shot at a finals appearance in the 50 free, 100 free, 100 fly. Outside medal shot in the 100 free. He was 4th in Rio. Didn’t look great after Rio, but did put up best times again this yards season and now seems to be pretty motivated again.
At this point he seems like hell do anything to get that Olympic medal. I think that will start translating into his training.

Braden Keith Is Lauren trolling us??? Did you really pick another Bolles swimmer??

Lauren I really picked another Olympic finalist

Braden Keith I hear Josh Booth is still available
And Emiro Goossen

Jared I support Lauren’s strategy. In the last draft, taking a Bolles swimmer in the first round worked out really well for me

Lauren Picking them early would’ve been ridiculous but it’s slim pickings now

Retta 7th round – Reona Aoki

andrew That pick shows how far Meilutyte’s stock has dropped. Meilutyte is a 21 year old with an individual Olympic gold medal and a short course world record. Aoki is a 23 year old who has never won a major medal, didn’t rank in the top 3 of anything last year, and has only a marginal chance of a relay medal. Meilutyte is still on the board, and I have no objection to Aoki being picked ahead of her.

***End of Round 7***

Round 7 Summary

***Start of Round 8***

Retta 8th round….Jack Cartwright

Lauren Charlotte Bonnet

Jared I’ll keep things in France with Mehdy Metella

Braden Keith I considered Bonnet heavily in the last round. That’s a good value pick for the 8th round, given how she’s come on of late.

Morgan P I’ll take Irie to finish things off. A number of others have passed him by on the world stage at this point, but he’s been a double back finalist at almost every big meet in the last decade. Add in the home crowd, and that Japan may have fiiiiiiinally found an anchor leg for their medley with Nakamura (after seemingly always falling back big time over the final 100). Feels like good 8th round value.

karl Elijah Winnington for me
Improving like crazy, could be a 400 free medal threat by 2020. great chance he’s on the Aussie 4×2 also

andrew The top end of the women’s 200 fly is really old. Give me the junior world record holder, Suzuka Hasegawa

spencer I’ll finish with Anton Ipsen. I feel like he’ll make a finals appearance in the 400/800/1500. Plus, I think if his meters times come down to the level of his yards times, he’ll be a really tough competitor at the top.

karl Oof there are better distance guys on the table I feel

spencer Idk i feel like he’s coming off a great ncaa season so i’ll see if he can ride that wave

karl I def think he’s gonna lower his times this summer tho

andrew Agreed he should be faster, but Wojdak, McLoughlin, or Christiansen are already fast.

karl Jervis too

Reid Boglarka Kapas.
She could be good for up to 4 individual finals. Relays are a question mark though.

Jared After Braden picks, I’d be interested to hear anybody’s ideas on the biggest surprises to go undrafted

Braden Keith I’m torn. It’s going to be a male distance swimmer, but I’m not sure which one.
Since I’m the last pick, I can say it’s between Auboeck, Christiansen, and Wojdak.
Wojdak is the safest pick, and most likely of that group to swim in three finals. But there’s also something appealing about Akos Kalmar (another three distance guy), who swims for Hungary, where they have all of the momentum in the world right now.
I’m going to go with Wojciech Wojdak.
[/draft]

karl People who I thought might get picked… Dominik Kozma. Peter Holoda. Masato Sakai. Simona Quadarella. Ivan Girev. Kayla Sanchez. The distance guys Braden mentioned

Braden Keith The up-and-coming Canadian women are very interesting. Erika S-H too.

karl Jade Hannah
There’s a million
Faith Knelson

Braden Keith I think there’s some picks that people are going to feel really bad about in 2 years
Jared’s got a lot of injury risk on his team

andrew I have some people that could easily fall off a cliff or fail to improve
Jiajiahe, McKeown, and Hasegawa were risky picks

Braden Keith I think we could have taken more Japanese and Chinese swimmers
As a group.

Jared I wanted to give everyone a fighting chance after winning the last draft 😉

karl My oldest was Vladdy at 26 and youngest Kesely at 16. Average age is 19, I’m definitely banking on some improvements
Jared is distance heavy but WHAT a steal to grab Blume that late

Braden Keith Yeah, how did we let that happen?

Jared Some big names that I was surprised didn’t go: Cseh, Kierra Smith, Shi Jinglin, Almeida, Ruta, Ning Zetao

Braden Keith Reid really wanted to take Kierra.
Cseh is age. Ruta is health. Ning is “federation troubles”.
Almeida for sure could have gone, but now he’s at South Carolina without Bernardino, so there’s some risk there.

Jared Kierra Smith might’ve been my last pick if Metella wasn’t there. But a little bit of a homer pick

Braden Keith At some point, all “two finals upside” swimmers are the same…
And picking a younger less-proven swimmer carries the “who knows what could happen” with it.
Cseh’s upside is 5 individual finals and a medal-winning relay swim. So, that’s probably the biggest miss of that group, if you ask me.

Reid I was torn between Kierra, Kapas, and Quadarella. Kierra ought to be good for 2 individual finals plus the medley relay, which I think will be a serious contender for silver or bronze.
The team of Masse, Smith, Oleksiak, and Ruck could really do some damage.

Braden Keith That relay is a 1:04 breaststroker away from maybe beating the U.S.

Retta Cseh…5 individual finals…2 yrs from now?????

***End of Round 8***

Full teams (first 4 rounds). I would love to see some team rankings in the comments. What was the best value pick? The worst?