Rio Hypothetical: Ryan Lochte Vs. Kosuke Hagino In 400 IM

There are two schools of thought on what we saw in tonight’s 400m IM final as it relates to how national record holder Kosuke Hagino performed at the Japanese Olympic Trials.

In the Japanese Olympic Trials final in Tokyo tonight, Hagino clocked the fastest 400m IM time in the world this season, a scorching 4:09.80,  but how much of an effort the athlete truly expended during the swim is a point of debate among enthusiasts looking for a heated battle between the 2012 Olympic bronze medalist in the event and his potential international rivals in Rio. One of those rivals potentially may be Ryan Lochte, the gold medalist from London’s Olympic Games.

For 21-year-old Hagino, his effort tonight is a tad hard to gauge since his elbow-injury-inducing incident right before the start of the 2015 World Championships rendered him out of that competition. As such, no one knows if we’ve seen a fully tapered Hagino since outside of his 4:07.61 Japanese National Record-setting swim in this same timeframe back in 2013 or his 4:07.88 outing at the 2014 Asian Games.

This year so far, Hagino did throw down a 4:09.06 at the Konami Cup, a mark which would have garnered him the silver medal in Kazan, so the man does own the world’s top 2 times so far this season as recent in-pool cred.

Still, some expected Hagino to drop even more time in Tokyo and dip into the 4:07 or even 4:06 territory as  a preview of what may come in Rio. The fact that Hagino didn’t delve into swifter territory gives some hope that, should 31-year-old Lochte choose to indeed swim the event at U.S. Trials, he would have a viable shot against the Japanese stud if both were to final in Brazil.

There’s no denying that Lochte has had mega-success with the 400m IM event over the years, which not only includes his 2012 Olympic gold, but also a bronze at the 2008 Games in Beijing, as well as the World Championship title he earned in 2011, clocking a 4:07.13 to lead the world’s best that year by over 4 seconds.

But, let’s not forget that the body of legendary Lochte has about 10 years of age on Hagino’s fresh 21-year-old frame, a factor that gets compounded in competing in such a grueling event as the 400 IM, especially in two sessions on the same day.

Lochte’s most recent swim in the event rendered the 4:12.66 result he clocked at the Arena Pro Swim Series in Austin in mid-January, a time he described as “hurting very badly.” The former Florida gator stud was visibly winded while getting out of the pool after that race, compared to Hagino who sprung up onto the deck after both his prelim and final swim in Tokyo today.

Hagino’s splits from today include a 59.94 closing 100 freestyle, which isn’t exactly head-turning and in fact comparable to Lochte’s closing 100 from his Austin outing (59.81). Intentional slow-down on the part of Hagino, or was that simply all the Japanese threat had left in the gank at that point?

You need only think back to Hagino’s closing 100 from his Asian Games’ performance, where he took things to another level, charging home in a final split of 55.75, which is actually faster than World Record Holder Michael Phelps’ final 100 when he set the mark in Beijing. Phelps’ 100 free split was a 56.79, pointing to the fact that Hagino can turn it on at the end of the race at a time when Lochte may just be holding on.

After his perforance in Tokyo tonight, Hagino said in an interview that he “let a lot of people down last year through my own fault,” speaking about his missing out on Kazan. “I have to work hard to make it up to everyone.”

A final comment may send shivers through would-be 400m IM challengers’, however, as Hagino concluded, “I’m not happy with that time but I’ve qualified for the Olympics and I’ll look to get some revenge by swimming faster in Rio.”