Predicting Which Records Will be Broken at the 2024 Men’s NCAA Champs

2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

Going event by event, we dissect which records have the most and least probability of being broken this weekend at the 2024 Men’s NCAA Championships in Indianapolis. How many records (out of 18) do you think will go down? Let us know below!

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swim2
7 months ago

I don’t understand why everyone is saying liendo has no chance at a 1 free record. Last year he was 41.7 at mid szn and 41.2 at secs, then 40.2 at ncs. this year 40.9 and 40.8 at mid szn and sec. Why not a .3 drop?

bobthebuilderrocks
7 months ago

Luke Hobson’s .48 away from the 2 free record. I’m calling that record going down, unless Marchand leads off.

Taa
7 months ago

Anyone else see Shackell’s 200free last weekend was a 1:46? Really makes you wonder what happened at cal or maybe the fall training made him faster he just didn’t stick around to taper for it.

Swimmer
Reply to  Taa
7 months ago

Pretty well known that Cal isn’t a particularly high volume program, so that’s be my guess on why he performed so much better immediately after getting back on Carmel’s program

Foreign Embassy
Reply to  Taa
7 months ago

I think he just wanted to go back home to focus on training, without school, to hopefully make the 800relay. He’s coming back to cal in the fall.

Chlorinated One
Reply to  Taa
7 months ago

The rigors of being a freshman away from home with academics and a new environment can be tough, especially in an Olympic year. He’ll definitely be in the mix at Olympic Trials and then thrive in the fall back at Cal.

Derp
7 months ago

Liendo:fly 42.6 , free 39.8
Marchand: 500 4:03.84

‘Murica
Reply to  Derp
7 months ago

Derp

Aragon Son of Arathorne
Reply to  Derp
7 months ago

I dont see Liendo doing either of those. Marchand, yes.

saltie
Reply to  Derp
7 months ago

marchand, maybe.

Liendo, absolutely no chance

PFA
7 months ago

There’s maybe 3 swimmers in the NCAA currently who could break 1:30 and I only see 2 of them challenging the 2 free record. Leon (if he leads off the relay) and Luke. Chris Guiliano has a shot at breaking 1:30 but I could see him going 1:29 high now.

Sapiens Ursus
7 months ago

Off the radar – 200 free if Marchand swims the 800 lead off

Last edited 7 months ago by Sapiens Ursus
Eric Angle
Reply to  Sapiens Ursus
7 months ago

It would be cool to see him lead off both the 800 and 400 free relay. Considering he lead off in 40.92 at PAC-12s, it makes you wonder what he could go in a 100 free from a flat start.

Swimmer.thingz
Reply to  Eric Angle
7 months ago

He can go atleast 40.92 😅

Eric Angle
Reply to  Swimmer.thingz
7 months ago

Haha, fair enough. I meant it would be cool to see what he could do this week at NCAAs where he will presumably be faster than PAC-12s.

Dirtswimmer
7 months ago

Only ones I fully expect to be broken are 500 free and 200 back. Everything else like IMs, 200 fly/free/breast, and 100 free/fly are possible but I would put under 50%. I do think we’ll see times faster than last year in those events tho and very close to the records

PFA
Reply to  Dirtswimmer
7 months ago

I think the 100 fly record is more likely to go down then any other dressel record at the moment

saltie
Reply to  PFA
7 months ago

yes but more likely as in there is about a .0001% chance instead of a 0% chance.

None of them are going down.

woods
7 months ago

Is there a world in which Kos swims on the 800 free relay? Seems crazy to me to think a guy who goes 135 (and who may go 134 soon) in the 200 back can’t flirt with breaking 130 with a flying start in the 2 free

snailSpace
Reply to  woods
7 months ago

He also split 41.25 with a flying start in the 100 free at Pac 12s. And he is much faster (3-4 seconds) at big meets than in season – his current PB of 1:33.5 in the 200 free is from a dual meet.

relay fun
Reply to  snailSpace
7 months ago

But he lead-off the ASU B at their fall Invite in ~1:34.3.

Willswim
Reply to  woods
7 months ago

There’s no need to do this because of guys like Dolan, Hill, Sammon, and McDonald, but theoretically ASU could win both Wednesday relays with a lineup of Kos, Marchand, Kharun, and Kulow.

oxyswim
Reply to  Willswim
7 months ago

Kharun and Kulow on that relay don’t beat Cal

Swammer
Reply to  oxyswim
7 months ago

Idk about that Kharun may go 18 high… Rose probably maxes out at 19.6ish. And besides Leon gives them a half second advantage at minimum on breast alone

snailSpace
Reply to  Swammer
7 months ago

I think they mean the 800 free relay.

Swammer
Reply to  snailSpace
7 months ago

I think you’re right… my b

relay fun
Reply to  Swammer
7 months ago

Don’t feel too badly, Swammer. There is more rationality to the proposition than most likely accept. Watching him all season, I’d expect 1:30.5 – 1:31.5 from Kharun and 1:30.8 – 1:32.00 from Kulow. But we’ll never know….

woods
Reply to  Willswim
7 months ago

It just seems silly to me for ASU to not put their best lineup together for that relay. I would understand if Kos was being utilized for the other four relays but he certainly won’t be on the 200 free relay and likely won’t be on the 400 free relay. If Cal caught fire and somehow beat the ASU in this, it would be such a mental swing. If they put Kos on, they theoretically have a chance at breaking 6 mins as well a guaranteed win. If it is a load management thing, I would at least anchor with Kos and tell him he can coast in if the victory is secured.

relay fun
Reply to  woods
7 months ago

Kos is an incredibly versatile, competitive and skilled athlete. But with the distribution of skills on ASU’s squad, there is only one leg on any relay this year where Hubi is the legitimate best choice for the ASU relay – Back on the 4×100 Medley (PBs Kos :43.75; Dolan :44.62; McDonald :44.85)

This conclusion is subject to any amazing things happening during ASU’s NCAA prep which may lead Bowman and staff to conclude the overall Sun Devil effort is enhanced by different relay assignments. But for what the public has seen to date….

50 Back on MR(PBs): Dolan :20.30 conference; Kos :20.91 dual meet.
Kos can certainly do a representative 50 back; and the best argument for this might… Read more »

About Coleman Hodges

Coleman Hodges

Coleman started his journey in the water at age 1, and although he actually has no memory of that, something must have stuck. A Missouri native, he joined the Columbia Swim Club at age 9, where he is still remembered for his stylish dragon swim trunks. After giving up on …

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