DraftKings, the United States’ largest sportsbook by market capitalization, has begun offering odds on the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials in some states (including Indiana, where the meet is being held). Earlier this year, Caesars Sportsbook offered odds as well.
Both offerings seem to be a test ahead of the Olympic Games, which have a massive untapped gambling potential in the United States.
There are only two races on the books so far for this weeks Trials when SwimSwam checked the book on Tuesday evening: the men’s 200 back and the women’s 200 breast. Both have heavy favorites according to the odds.
Showing where the weakness could be in wagering on Olympic events: Lydia Jacoby has the third-best odds of winning the race, in spite of saying on Tuesday that she wasn’t going to swim the race.
The odds in the 200 breast have Kate Douglass as the favorite at -500. That implies a probability of her winning of 83.33%. She’s the American Record holder with a 2:19.30 that she swam in January and the top seed, 1.65 seconds ahead of Lilly King. Those two are way ahead of anybody else in the field, though Douglass’ teammate Alex Walsh (+1000) is being given decent odds at a big drop, given that her seed time is only 2:25.25.
In the men’s 200 backstroke, Ryan Murphy, the two-time defending champion and 2016 Olympic champion, is a heavy favorite at -1000. That implies an expected win probability of 90.9%. Jack Aikins (+700) is the next-favorite, with an implied win probability of 12.5%.
In both cases, the implied win probabilities are pretty different than what was chosen in our pick ’ems (86.4% for Murphy, 92.1%).
In the case of the 200 back, though, the second-pick in the pick ’em contest was Destin Lasco by a mile, and knowing what they know now about Lasco’s form so far at this meet, the number of Murphy picks would rise even higher.
My pick: take Douglass and Murphy to win, parlay them, and a $10 bet gets you about $3.20 in profit. Don’t spend it all in one place.
Oddly enough, if you bet on Ledecky winning the 1500 and she wins, you actually lose money.
Not how that works. You will win your original bet back, plus your winnings.
A lot of vigorish on these needle-in-a-haystack type bets I wouldn’t take that 83.33% at face value.
I can’t wait to explain to my wife how I lost hundreds of dollars betting on swimming.
“Honey, I don’t have a gambling problem because I can only do it once every 4 years!”
Me putting my life savings on Jack Aikins 200 back
You’re going to make hundreds!
Definitely the play here