2016 HANCOCK PROSPECTING AUSTRALIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS (AUSTRALIAN OLYMPIC TRIALS)
- Thursday April 7th-Thursday April 14th
- SA Aquatic and Leisure Centre – Adelaide
- Prelims – 11 am local (9:30 pm EDT previous evening); Finals – 7:45 pm local (6:15 am EDT)
- Australian Olympic Qualifying Criteria
- Psych Sheets
- Program of Events
- Live stream
- Live results
As the doors closed upon the final session of the 2016 Swimming Australia Olympic & Paralympic Trials in Adelaide over the last week, there is much to reflect on. The Australians are the hottest thing in the world in sprinting right now, with Cam McEvoy reviving the men’s group to match the furor of their women. Mitch Larkin is swimming as well as he ever has; Mack Horton and Emma McKeon are proving the prophecies true; and the Dolphins qualified everyone through to Rio that they really needed to qualify through to Rio, save for a mild upset here-or-there (the same of which could not be said for the simultaneous qualifying meets in France and Britain, for example).
While there’s still some holes in Australia’s overall lineup, in totality, the major questions have been answered, save for one: the men’s 400 medley relay.
The Australians have the best bookends in the world with Mitch Larkin and Cam McEvoy now sitting as favorites in the 100 backstroke and 100 freestyle, respectively, at least until the United States has its Olympic Trials in late June.
The middle is where the Australians lack the same power, especially with the country’s former top butterflier Jayden Hadler missing the final altogether at this meet.
There’s been some concern over the breaststroking in Australia since Brenton Rickard lost form and eventually retired in 2013, and Christian Sprenger followed in 2016. A stroke that has been locked-in for a decade-or-more seems to have its next torch-bearer, as 21-year old Jake Packard continues to improve (he was 59.65 this week).
But 59.65 isn’t the split it used to be, not when the likes of Adam Peaty has burst through into the 57-second range on flat starts.
As the French have largely flopped at their trials, the battle for gold has five primary contenders: the United States, Australia, Great Britain, Russia, and Japan. Australia will have all of these countries beat, save maybe the Americans depending on where Ryan Murphy’s improvement curve carries to this summer, and should have top honors on the freestyle leg.
The Americans have a huge group of contenders (Kevin Cordes, Cody Miller, Nic Fink, and Andrew Wilson, to name a few), but none have really given them the 58-low relay split potential that they’d need to really put things away.
On the totality of those three legs, the Australians have a slight advantage for gold.
The challenge on the butterfly leg was well-answered by a pair, Southport’s 22-year old David Morgan (51.64) and St Peters Western’s Grant Irvine (51.76) went 1-2 in that race, and after strong swims from both in the 200 fly as well, plus an Irvine 51.68 on an actual medley relay swim to close the meet and Morgan split 51.26. Those are solid silver-medal times, but the United States’ ace-in-the-hole is the butterfly. On the 3rd leg of this relay, either Tom Shields (50.5 split at Worlds) or Michael Phelps (the world #1 last year) could put an insurmountable gap on the Australians unless Morgan and Irvine continue to improve.
But if the Australians want to at least repeat their silver medal, and at most make up the .15-second deficit they had to the Americans in Kazan, there’s a glaring hole: the breaststrokes.
A potential performable Australian 400 medley relay could look something like this:
- Mitch Larkin – 52.0
- Jake Packard – 58.9
- David Morgan/Grant Irvine – 50.9
- Cam McEvoy – 46.4
That totals to a 3:28.2, which would be a new Australian Record.
The Americans’ 90th-percentile scenario looks something like this:
- Ryan Murphy 52.2
- Kevin Cordes 58.5
- Michael Phelps – 49.9
- Nathan Adrian/Caeleb Dressel – 46.8
That totals to a 3:27.4.
The on-paper advantage, with an in-form Phelps, is clearly to the Americans, but this relay will come at the end of the meet, so depending on how Phelps plans his overall Olympic schedule, a 49.9 is no guarantee given the physical strain of an Olympic run. If the Australians are going to win, though, it will require McEvoy to run down the American anchor, and with Nathan Adrian having about 7 inches of size on him, that would be a powerful wake for the Aussie anchor to fight through.
This race isn’t a runaway, and McEvoy’s 47.0 ensures a competitive final at least for Rio, but it’s going to take some magic for the Australians to keep the Americans from winning their 8th-straight gold medal in this relay.
I think that the article was quite balanced, unlike the trollish BS in the comments! Obviously the US are the team to beat. We, Aussies probably have their measure with Larkin, a bit behind with Packard (unless he improves, probably lose a second against Phelps. So as McEvoy is at this stage indisputably the fastest freestyle sprinter by far over the Americans, it really depends how much he needs to chase the American down. A second and I reckon he would do it, anything more and we’d have to hope the US DQs!
Having depth on a stroke is better than having only one swimmer of course, but underperformances are still possible.
For example, US backstroker can be Grevers or Murphy, let’s say Murphy is slightly out of shape in Rio, so they’re happy to have Grevers against Larkin. Good. But that still one swimmer against another. I think the “depth” thing is not so important in the end, it would be if there were 10 medley relays per year and a a global ranking to decide the gold medal.
In Kazan, Murphy was irregular. There’s a 0.8 gap between his best and his worst 100BK splits, if he swims the best one, US relay wins, if he swims the worst, US relay… Read more »
History tells us, the US has never lost a men’s 4X100 medley, that the US will be favourite & the only time Australia won was when the US did not attend an Olympics, in 1980.
Just so exciting!!!
Didn’t Ryan Murphy went 52.1 in Kazan leading off a relay? Why only hive him 52.2 and 52.0 to Larkin? USA will destroy AUS.
According to Bobo Gigi, it’s because Murphy can only swim fast when it’s clear water and no pressure.
He swam next to Larkin in Kazan m4x100 medley final as well as 200 final, and in both occasions he flopped.
So now you side with Bobo when it serve you well.
Anyway, I think it can be either Grever or Murphy
Huh?
Are you a child or something?
Just not Australian.
A child then.
let me add
I’m just not a bully Australian.
Really? Can’t understand that “So now you side with Bobo when it serves you well”
I argue and debate about ideas and opinions, not about who makes that idea.
Only a child or person with limited intelligent would argue about a person online.
” not about who makes that idea”
i thought you call me a “limited intelligent child”? And others are “troll”,” dead”, “dramma queen”…?
I’m sure you smart enough to work it out, aren’t you?
I asked you if you are a child because you questioned why I sided with Bobo.
Only a child and a limited inteligent person would argue about a person and “on who’s side” are you on, instead of about ideas.
“because you questioned why I sided with Bobo” after your endless bashing comments against him i may add.
I just pretend that you are pretending you don’t understand, since you think you have a superior intelligent 😉
You are a bully, at least you act this way online. Tone it down mattie. We are here for fun. Sure it is nothing wrong to be a fan, just don’t let your “Aussie pride” gets the worst out of you on here.
I don’t see why McEvoy can’t split a 46.0. With that being said, USA needs to have a big lead going into the free. This should be no problem in the fly because it will be the GOAT’s final swim of his career, so you can expect something big from him. Usa has incredible depth in 100 bk so I’m sure someone can step up and give the US a solid first leg. Breastroke is the biggest problem in my eyes. Mens breastroke is just so inconsistent in the US. I really hope they dont put Miller in the final hes already been disqualified once this season he could easily do it again :/ best wishes to all the countries.… Read more »
You are concerned Miller will get DQed in the relay and you are not too concerned about Cordes?
🙂
I feel this article is a little optimistic…. Whilst excited at the prospect of Australia doing well in the event in Rio it pays to be mindful of the entire picture. Until the US trials are completed predictions of Adrian & Dressel matching McEvoy are largely inflated. Time will tell. Its true Aus doesnt not have the calibre of swimmer such as Michael Phelps in the fly but you seem to have missed the fact that David Morgan split a 51.26 in the fly leg of the Medley relay on the final night of the Aus Champs in your summation. I think this event is going to be a lot closer than the article attempts to portray. Looking forward to… Read more »
Sydneyflyer,
How do you read it? He said ” it will require McEvoy to run down the American anchor”. I don’t think it’s too optimistic to predict the US have an edge over Australia, or any country for that matter, in men 400 medley relay. I can see after fly split, Australia is down 1.5 to 2 seconds. I think it’s a little optimistic if you think McEvoy can swim down either Adrian or Dressel that much.
Also, just like most Aussie fans after every Aussie trials, you are so sure you have the best sprinters in the world.
Well fair estimation Swimsense, no-one in the US has got within McEvoy’s time (0.8) in 4 years. So I think we have every right at present to think that way, things might change after the US trials, but at present we have the best sprinter!!!!!
As for the 4X100 med, yes I agree the US are the ones to beat, however, I think we are a lot closer to the US after the trials then before them.
I love the relays.
W4x100 Australia’s to lose
W4X200 US’s to lose
W4x100med very open, Australia, US & China, together with Sweden.
M4X100 France US, Brazil Russia & Australia, can’t even pick a favourite.
M4X200 US, Australia, GB,… Read more »
Adrian can always surprise on the end of a relay. In 2013, he was 47.8 or 47.9 in the 100 free (a bit off his London form), and then he turned around and split a 46.60 on the end of the medley relay. The only reason that isn’t currently the fastest textile relay split in history is because Cordes false started on the first exchange, but his split was legal even if the relay was not. By that point in the race, they weren’t even being pushed, he was swimming alone and split 46.60! 1.3 seconds difference is more than just a good relay start, the dude is a relay machine.
If the U.S. has a lead like the… Read more »
Of course Australia currently has the best sprinters in the world.
Please tell me better sprinters than McEvoy and C1?
You are making zero sense as always.
That’s because you are Australian. And I was talking about male spinters as this article intended. Of course you have to pride again
McEvoy 47.05.
Magnussen 47.10, Sullivan 47.27… At the same pool.
Adrian went 46 mid at Barcelona 2013 world championship medley relay
@sven McEvoy also went 46 mid for relay in Kazan
Yes & your point?
Today, the best sprinter in the world is McEvoy, you cannot disagree with that, just because Magnussen, beaten by Adrian in 2012 & Sullivan, who was swapping WRs with Bernard up to the 2008 Olympics did not win Olympic gold, you cannot doubt that today McEvoy is no1. mcEvoy is a totally different beast to Magnussen.
2008 trials was at the Sydney Olympic pool, the other 2 are in a pool in Adelaide 2 thousand miles away.
And? How did it turn out?
Today when? Before other nations’ trial?
Sullivan lost to Bernard mano a mano. If you want to talk about world record, Jason Lezak swam 46 flat last relay split.
Yes, before the other trials, he is the best sprinter in the world, he just swam 47.05, which no-one has swam within .7 a second in the last 4 years. Only Magnussen in textile has ever gone close to this time, so yes he is the best. If there were no super suits, this would be a world record. So how is he not the best sprinter in the world?
Didn’t i say that? Before other trials, the Aussies always think you are the best. It might turn out that way this time, but what exactly do you disagree with me?
When did Lezak swim a relay 46 flat? In 2008 with a super swimsuit.
Why is Ledecky the premier 400 & 800 swimmer in the world, same as McEvoy.
We’re we talking about Sullivan with the suits at the same year?Why? She owns several world records and a Olympics gold. Yes all in textile.
Swimsense,
This is what you wrote:
“Also, just like most Aussie fans after every Aussie trials, you are so sure you have the best sprinters in the world.”
of course we are sure that McEvoy IS the best sprinter in the world.
Tell us any sprinter better than mcEvoy TODAY?
not some hypothetical BS “oh, but Adrian and Dressel could beat mcEvoy in Rio”
Aussie oy,
“Also, just like most Aussie fans after every Aussie trials, you are so sure you have the best sprinters in the world.”
of course we are sure that McEvoy IS the best sprinter in the world.”
Mind you that this article talks about a race IN THE OLYMPIC. So no i don’t need to answer your answer NOW. But i can certainly answer you that questions past Olympics. No, you did not have fastest sprinters in the world. Got it yet?
McEvoy 47.05
Swimsense,
You were talking about one hypothetical event in in Rio Olympics, not about past events:
How do you read it? He said ” it will require McEvoy to run down the American anchor”. I don’t think it’s too optimistic to predict the US have an edge over Australia, or any country for that matter, in men 400 medley relay. I can see after fly split, Australia is down 1.5 to 2 seconds. I think it’s a little optimistic if you think McEvoy can swim down either Adrian or Dressel that much.
Also, just like most Aussie fans after every Aussie trials, you are so sure you have the best sprinters in the world.
Unless there is anyone else… Read more »
It’s like arguing that Ledecky is not the best women 400 freestyler.
Like i said, you always thought the same way, and Australia did not win any 100 men sprint gold for a very long time. Nothing is new here. Is it not clear enough?
Ledecky is PROVEN 400m champion in Kazan with a win, and a world record. However, she does not win 400m at at Olympic yet. The way you Aussies have been saying it, is just like your sprinters have their name on those golds already.
So who cares if in the past some people proven wrong about prediction, many were proven right anyway, such as Magnussen beating Adrian in 2013 Barcelona.
We are speaking about TODAY and discussion of Rio.
Are you still arguing Australia does not have the best sprinters?
“So who cares if in the past some people proven wrong about prediction” You and others did obviously, why do you think we have this convo?
McEvoy could turn out to be a best sprinter IN RIO when he could prove himself in Olympic. Right now, you can NOT be sure of that, let alone the fact he could swim down Dressel or Adrian with 2 seconds disadvantage. I found it a bit funny when you compared him to Ledecky BTW. This is a sprint event we are talking about, not mid or long distance. If you don’t execute it well that day, forget it.
If South Africa makes trials for the medley they have a legitimate chance my predictions for them if they make it
Christopher Reid 52.68
CVDB 57.63
Mini phelps: 50.18
Roland anchorman: 47.80
1:28.29 which would be cool. I wish South Africa had some amazing young freestyler Tandy is great…….. For a 50
I think the US breastrokers are a mixed bag & the least reliable intra meet . Plus some of their current candidates are marginally legal .One should be deported (out of the event only of course).
I did Hugo Morris SEC & NCAA conversion to l/c & over the full 3 rounds it was absolutely no where near 1.53 & 1.55. your chart predicted. For any boys thinking of NCAA – i’m sure its fun but it ain’t going to get you on an Australian team . Ditto going over to Bowman -forget it. Tranter was mediocre both in time & technique & fitness. There was a time when he was good at a few events. Ditto Grant . However… Read more »
I don’t know about you but most people go to university for education.
Don’t forget SafeSpaces.
#LowlyIncomeDisabledAsianTransgenderedRepublicanLivesMatter !
Of course that is the case. However for an overseas student/swimmer; there are a number of issues for them to weigh up
Firstly, what are they placing first; academics or swimming ?
What is the swimming infrastructure/support in their home countries ?
If they are also seriously pursuing an education; how does the standard at home measure up to the US institution(s) seeking to recruit them ? How many great swim schools are necessarily great academic institutions ? For whilst there are the Cals, Stanfords & Dukes; many are unexceptional academically on the global scale.
All of these are massive variables and in many cases, NCAA can be the way to go. Its certainly no guarantee to work out as… Read more »
China are surely far more likely to be a threat than Japan.
Yes agree, China a bigger threat then Japan.