As the dust settles on U.S., Australian, Canadian, and French Olympic Trials, we’re taking a bird’s-eye view of how the relay battles are shaping up.
Olympic-Qualified Relays
The top 12 relays at 2019 World Championships earned Olympic berths for their nations. Four more nations earned berths by putting up the fastest times among unqualified nations over a 15-month period leading up to the Olympics.
| Nation | ||
| 1 | 2019 Worlds | Australia |
| 2 | 2019 Worlds | Canada |
| 3 | 2019 Worlds | Sweden |
| 4 | 2019 Worlds | USA |
| 5 | 2019 Worlds | Japan |
| 6 | 2019 Worlds | Netherlands |
| 7 | 2019 Worlds | China |
| 8 | 2019 Worlds | Germany |
| 9 | 2019 Worlds | Russia |
| 10 | 2019 Worlds | Hong Kong |
| 11 | 2019 Worlds | Czech Republic |
| 12 | 2019 Worlds | Poland |
| 13 | Wild Card | Great Britain |
| 14 | Wild Card | France |
| 15 | Wild Card | Denmark |
| 16 | Wild Card | Brazil |
Aggregate times below are based on season-bests from September 2020 through June 2021. Lifetime-bests or time drops can obviously change the picture significantly. We’ll do a more in-depth preview of each relay event in the coming weeks, but this first-look projection is aimed at specifically seeing the impacts of recent Olympic Trials meets on the Olympic relay picture.
The Favorites
| Australia | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Emma McKeon | 52.19 |
| Cate Campbell | 52.43 |
| Madison Wilson | 52.76 |
| Meg Harris | 52.92 |
| TOTAL: | 3:30.30 |
Australia has been pretty unbeatable in this event over the past decade. They won Olympic golds in 2012 and 2016, plus Worlds golds in 2015 and 2019. (The lone loss of this Olympic cycle was 2017, when the Australians were missing world record-holder Cate Campbell and lost to the U.S. by three-tenths.)
This season, Australia has the top three swimmers in the world. Their slowest leg is ranked #5 worldwide this season. Enough said.
The Contenders
| USA | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Abbey Weitzeil | 53.52 |
| Erika Brown | 53.59 |
| Olivia Smoliga | 53.55 |
| Natalie Hinds | 53.55 |
| TOTAL: | 3:34.21 |
The U.S. is expected to be without two-time defending world champ Simone Manuel, who split 51.9 on the end of this relay in 2019 but missed the U.S. team in the 100 free while dealing with Overtraining Syndrome. Manuel is on the team as a 50 freestyler, and could be called into action here if she trains well over the next few weeks.
It’s a bit surprising that the U.S. remains #2 in the world in aggregate times even without Manuel, but this field is brutally close, with five nations within a second.
| China | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Zhang Yufei | 52.90 |
| Yang Junxuan | 53.21 |
| Wu Qingfeng | 53.84 |
| Zhu Menghui | 54.54 |
| TOTAL: | 3:34.49 |
This relay comes right at the beginning of the Olympics, but does overlap with heats and semifinals of the 100 fly, a key event for Zhang Yufei. Still, China has risen fast here after finishing 5th at 2019 Worlds.
| Netherlands | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Femke Heemskerk | 53.05 |
| Ranomi Kromowidjojo | 53.13 |
| Marrit Steenbergen | 54.18 |
| Kim Busch | 54.28 |
| TOTAL: | 3:34.64 |
The Dutch team finished second at Euros last month and were one spot out of the medals at 2019 Worlds. They’ve got two elite legs in Heemskerk and Kromowidjojo, both ranked in the top 7 in the world this season in the 100 free. The question is whether their other two legs can get under 54.
| Canada | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Penny Oleksiak | 52.89 |
| Kayla Sanchez | 53.57 |
| Maggie MacNeil | 54.02 |
| Katerine Savard | 54.51 |
| TOTAL: | 3:34.99 |
Canada took bronze at 2019 Worlds. Their best split there (a 52.1 from Taylor Ruck) didn’t finish in the top four at Canadian Trials, but could still wind up on this relay as she was pre-selected to the roster.
| Great Britain | |
| Swimmer | Split |
| Freya Anderson | 53.40 |
| Anna Hopkin | 53.43 |
| Lucy Hope | 53.89 |
| Abbie Wood | 54.40 |
| TOTAL: | 3:35.12 |
The Brits won Euros last month to claim a wild card Olympic berth in 3:34.17 – a full second faster than this projection. For lack of a reasonable 4th leg in world ranks, we used Wood’s relay split from Euros (plus half a second to roughly factor out a relay exchange).
The Field
France took bronze at Euros in 3:35.92. Marie Wattel is #9 in this season’s world ranks with a 53.32.
Right behind France, Denmark broke a national record in 3:36.81, with Signe Bro leading off in 53.73. If Pernille Blume can return to anywhere near her career-best 52.6, they’ve got a shot to join that medal-contending field.
Sweden‘s hopes ride on world record-holder Sarah Sjostrom and how she’s recovering from elbow surgery. The blessing in disguise to Sjostrom’s broken elbow might be that the longtime butterfly superstar can finally focus on relays instead of extending her energy across a busy fly/free individual event lineup.
It would be interesting to also do something with regard to this with the relay splits some of these women have put up to see how that changes the landscape.
The Aussies have the lead, but also have to remember C1 has dropped a 51.0 on the field before. That shuts the door on everyone.
Ruck (if she returns to form) has one of the fastest splits ever (51-something)- that moves Canadians solidly into Silver. The Dutch relay girls all drop monster relay splits and if even 2 deliver that could knock the US off the podium.
Not just this relay, but would be fun to do all relays with “possibles”.
And. In actuality, a lot… Read more »
Gold – Australia
Silver – Canada
Bronze – USA
D. H. (minor medal) – China
The disappointing thing about American trials? Non-qualified swimmers’ season bests:
Manuel 53.34
Huske 53.46
Curzan 53.55
Ledecky 53.82
3:34.17
That’s .04 faster than the foursome highlighted in the article.
If I were coach, I’d time trial everyone right before night 1 of games and find the 4 fastest for finals. I’d make clear even if you were top 6, or top 2 at trials, no one is guaranteed a spot on the relay – excepting C Deloof, Smoliga, and Hinds who HAVE to swim somewhere as relay-only swimmers. I love Allison Schmitt, but 54.12 shouldn’t guarantee a spot on an American relay in 2021.
I agree with you 100%
Canada will be much faster than that.
Many of their swimmers were already qualified and swam untapered at their trials.
Last olympic gold was in 2000!
Is USA not tired of losing for so long?
And this time it could be a humiliation.
Seriously when we think of it, that drought looks absolutely crazy.
It’s the same about USA not winning the women’s 100 meters on track since 1996.
And it was the same about the huge US drought in the women’s 100 free since 1984 until Simone won in Rio.
If USA wants to take back the relay gold medal in 2024 and especially at home in 2028 maybe it’s time to change things immediately after Rio, implement a commando operation, call for a general mobilization from everybody, change training methods, improve technique,… Read more »
A bit of a lookback for fun – the first time in recent history that Australia went in to the Olympics as favourites for the women’s 4x100m free relay was in 2004.
At that time they boasted the two fastest swimmers ever in Libby Lenton (Trickett) with her world record and Jodie Henry not far behind – both sub 53.8.
They also had Alice Mills as one of the fastest for the year in I think 54.2. It was the first Olympics for all three.
The 4th leg was strong but not on par.
I distinctly remember that many commentators (online and media) did not think the Aussies would get any faster from their Olympic heat time and… Read more »
Those three were ranked top 3 in the world around that time.
Sarah Ryan (54:97) swam the heats and was replaced by Petria Thomas (54:67) in the final.
Alice mills was 4th fastest all time at that point, only behind the other two and Inge’s WR from 2000. Australian 100m sprinters are constantly suffering from a strong domestic competition. I think in 2005, mills won the aus champs and lenton/trickett missed out
Indeed. It’s probably helped push them to be even more competitive, but it has meant that some miss out.
Lenton was the fastest in 2005 by year’s end I think even though she missed out on the individual swim for Australia at the WCs that year.
You mention Ruck being “pre-selected” for the Canadian team. I’d love to see an “explainer” of how the different countries select their teams. I know they don’t all do a single-meet trials like the US does. Do y’all have an article along those lines?
We haven’t put together a comparison article with them side-by-side, but there are lots of articles on the site about how individual countries choose their teams.
We’ll work on putting together something that’s more ‘side-by-side,’ good idea!
It will be a little weird this year, though. With COVID, things have been unusually wide-open in qualifying in many/most countries.
That would be cool. I remember one of your articles from a couples weeks ago about some Chinese swimmers at their “second” qualification meet, and it made me wonder about the qualification process, and to what extent it depends on FINA vs. each country’s swimming gov body. Cheers!
It’s really like insane that one country can be more than 4s faster than everyone else in a 400m relay. In the past when relay gaps have been that long it’s usually on an 800m relay
Short of breaking there’s no way Australia loses this. Even if some swimmers are injured or sick, they have 1s gap on each swimmer and their 5th and 6th swimmers are 53.2
Yes, the pressure will be off for AUS in the starts and exchanges….BUT the pressure will be really on for teams 2-6. Hope we dont see any nervous breaks.