There are three basic storylines for the 200 IM at Olympic Trials this year, each one roughly coinciding with a different group of swimmers:
The Dynamic Duo Will Dominate
Barring unforeseen accidents, illness, or incident, Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps will almost certainly represent the United States at Rio this summer for the 4th consecutive Games, and the 200 IM will be the only race at Olympic Trials that will feature the two fastest men ever competing against each other.
While Phelps has won gold at each of those past three Olympics, Lochte is the world record holder, with his 1:54.00 from the 2011 World Championships just eclipsing Phelps’s 1:54.16 from the same race. Phelps had the fastest time in the world last year, a 1:54.75 at US Summer Nationals, while Lochte registered a 1:55.81 en route to a fourth-straight gold medal at the World Championships.
Other Veterans Will Make Their Presence Known
Conor Dwyer (photo: Mike Lewis)
Phelps’s former NBAC teammate Conor Dwyer, who’s been training with Trojan for the past year or so, is the 5th-fastest American ever, and the 3rd-fastest in textile. Dwyer has been the other American representative at the two world championships since Phelps retired after London, and boasts a lifetime best of 1:57.41, from 2014. At the ripe old age of 27 (OK, well, not “old” old, but not young in swimming terms), Dwyer probably doesn’t have much more room for improvement here, but his freestyle has been looking great, and should Phelps or Lochte falter, Dwyer should be next in line for a spot.
Tyler Clary has also done well in this event, but with the 200m backstroke final the same night as the 200 IM, Clary did not compete in this event in 2012, and it does not look likely that he will compete this year either. If he does decide to swim it, he should make the final.
Austin Surhoff, Cody Miller, and Kyle Whitaker were all in the final in 2012, and all are still competing. Surhoff trains with Phelps, and sports the best time since 2012, a 1:58.80 from last summer’s Nationals. Miller is an elite breastroker, and hasn’t competed in this event at a major meet since the 2012 U.S. Open. Whitaker’s 1:59.13 from 2014 Summer Nationals is faster than he went at OT’s, and he was a finalist at last summer’s World University Games, finishing 7th.
Rounding out the returning finalists is someone who bridges the gap a bit between the veterans and the next group, and that’s Chase Kalisz. He’s been training with Phelps for years, and while he seems to have stalled in this event a bit, he is a beast in the longer IM, and at the age of 22 , he could be ready to pop off, pass Dwyer, and perhaps even challenge Phelps or Lochte for a spot here. His best time, a 1:58.52, was from 2013.
One more veteran to mention is Michael Weiss, dropped over two seconds off his best time at USA Nationals last December, his time of 1:58.97 the first time the first time he’d gone faster than 2:01. He finished 19th at Trials in 2012.
Who Is Going to Succeed Phlochte in This Event?
Phelps says this is definitely his last go-around. Lochte is 32 and this could be it for him as well. The final here could go a long way in showing which two swimmers will be representing the USA at international meets for years to come.
NCAA stars Will Licon and Josh Prenot have both made major strides over the past couple of years but lead a crop of college swimmers who are still looking for a long course breakthrough, whether in this event or another. Licon is the 3rd-fastest man ever in the short course yards version of this event and won at NCAA’s this year. He’s not yet to the same level in long course, but went 1:58.43 last summer after coming off a bout of mono. Prenot finished 2nd at NCAA’s this year behind Licon, but won gold at WUG’s last summer with a 1:58.38.
Both will have to balance this event with the 200 breaststroke in the Olympic Trials format. The 200 breast final takes place on the same night as the 200 IM semifinals. But with the 200 breast opening the session, the 200 IM closing it and 5 other events in between, the double is doable if either or both men push for it.
Cal’s Josh Prenot (Photo Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)
Andrew Seliskar is the 15-16 NAG record holder in this event, but has yet to improve on that time, a 1:59.84 from the 2013 Junior World Championships. He’s been training with Prenot and the rest of the Cal team for the past year, however, and it’d be surprising if he doesn’t see some improvement this summer.
Gunnar Bentz’s trajectory in this event has followed a similar path as Seliskar’s. He has some really fast times as age grouper, and then seemed to stall a bit at the end of high school and beginning of college, but he’s got tremendous long course potential in this event, and should also cut some time from his best of 1:59.19, from 2014 Summer Nationals.
While he’s not dropping NAG records like he seemingly was a few years ago, you can’t ignore the fact Michael Andrew had the 8th-fastest time in the US last year, a 1:59.86 that also puts him 2nd all-time in the 15-16 age group, just .02 behind Seliskar and ahead of Phelps.
Michael Andrew (photo: Mike Lewis)
Going into the 2012 Trials, nine men had been under 2:00 in the previous four years. It took a 2:01.51 to make finals in 2012. This quad, there are 16 men who have cracked that 2:00 barrier. The bottom line is that while it is unlikely that there will be any drama over who the top two will be, the competition to make the final will be incredibly fierce, and anyone who doesn’t take the semi-final seriously could find themselves on the outside looking in.
Top 8 Picks
| Swimmer | Best Time (Since 2012) | Predicted Time in Omaha |
| Michael Phelps | 1:54.75 | 1:54.85 |
| Ryan Lochte | 1:54.98 | 1:54.95 |
| Conor Dwyer | 1:57.41 | 1:56.92 |
| Chase Kalisz | 1:58.52 | 1:57.00 |
| Will Licon | 1:58.43 | 1:57.20 |
| Josh Prenot | 1:58.38 | 1:57.24 |
| Gunnar Bentz | 1:59.19 | 1:58.60 |
| Kyle Whitaker | 1:59.13 | 1:59.88 |
Dark horse: David Nolan, the fastest ever in the yards version of this event, finally cracked 2:00 in long course this past weekend at the Longhorn Elite Invite. He’s spent the past year in Tempe, training under Bob Bowman, alongside Phelps, Kalisz, and Surhoff, and fans would love to see him finally translate his short course prowess into success in the bigger pool.
It will so cool if two underdog make the team in 200 IM. Usa needs to stop sending masters swimmers.
don’t underestimate lochte. previous 2 olympics/trials he swam the 200 back/200 IM double. not sure if he’ll do that again since it looks like he has stepped away from it, so he will be much fresher relatively
I predict at LEAST 1:54.31 for Phelps, I actually hope he doesn’t break the wr lol. Save em for Rio!
My mind says Phelps Lochte 1-2 finish at Trials, and a Phelps-Hagino-Lochte finish in Rio, but my heart is telling me Lochte-Phelps-Hagino at the Games.
Lochte pls swim fast, thx.
Trials:
Phelps/Lochte (no particular order 1-2 finish) 1:54.7-1:55.0 both of them
Licon 1:56 low
Kalisz 1:56 mid
Nolan 1:57
Prenot 1:57 low-mid
Dwyer 1:57 high
Yung Seli 1:58 flat
If Licon qualifies in any event I’m changing my name to Will Licon’s noseplug.
Chances are high in the 200 breast.
#nosepluggang
Omaha:
1) Phelps, Michael 1:54.56
2) Lochte, Ryan 1:55.78
3) Kalisz, Chase 1:56.30
4) Dwyer, Conor 1:56.67
5) Prenot, Josh 1:56.97
6) Nolan, David 1:57.08
7) Bentz, Gunnar 1:57.73
8) Licon, Will 1:59.03
Rio de Janiero:
1) Phelps, Michael GOLD 1:53.83 WR
2) Hagino, Kosuke SILVER 1:54.48
3) Lochte, Ryan BRONZE 1:55.03
Switch Licon’s time with Bentz’s time and this would be a good prediction.
I like the times, but I can’t remember the last time I saw Phelps dust Lochte when tapered. I think Phelps will win, but I also think Lochte will be right there with him. I can’t imagine he’ll get beat by more than a second if healthy.
My predictions:
OMaha:
1. Phelps 1:54.9
2. Ryan Lochte 1:55.3
Rio: the race between MP, Lochte and Hagino will be very interesting and very tight.
This year, Hagino has gone so fast in the first 100m and he also finishes very well. But his worst stroke is breaststroke. That is advantage for MP especially Ryan Lochte ( sub 33 spilit in Kazan and goes 1:02 in 100m breast this year). Anyway, we know MP’s freestyle is still in the mystery. I need to see him swim 100/200 free in Omaha to find out.
1. MP 1:53.9-1:54.1
2. Hagino 1:54.3
3. Lochte 1:54.7
phelps breaststroke is also very good it seems. Was 2;11 low last year in the 200
Michael Andrews will win the 200 IM at the 2016 Olympic Trials.
If we have 2016 Youth Olympic trials, i think he will win in that event!!!
Even that wouldn’t be a sure thing.
Maybe in scy. Andrew can’t do the 200s in lcm
Phelps never goes faster in Olympic year than previous year.
This is lochte’s moment, he’ll kill them on brs.
Lochte hagino phelps
Lol the most inaccurate statement ever written.phelps is THE OLYMPIAN. Always focuses on Olympic years. Lochte on the decline if he goes 1:54 anything that’s a huge accomplishment.
Hahaha
Have a look at 2003 / 2007 / 2011 results of 200im compared to Olympic year
Hmmm ????
Facts speak for themselves
Not sure what race you watched in 2007 but he went almost a second faster in 2008… 2012 he went the same exact basically just wasn’t chasing anyone so he went a tenth slower,so your only valid argument is 2003-2004 when the only event he went slower in at Athens than the previous year was the 200 im and that was during the back half of a grueling schedule. Phelps is always ready for the olympics,and may not go under 1:54,but will be under 1:54.5 for sure
2003: 1.56.0
2004: 1.57.1
2007 1.54.9
2008 1.54.2 in lzr legs
2011: 1.54.1 pb
2012: 1.54.3
Look at his 100/200 fly he doesn’t go faster, 2008 doesn’t count he was wearing lzr.
Ok 200fly in 2012 was slightly faster than 2011 but he got beat.
My point is he went 1.54.5 last year, what makes people think coz he’s done more work he will go faster? He’ll be more conditioned to do multiple swims for sure, not go over a second faster on 200im.
They’ve reached there limit, it’s 1.54.0.
What because it’s the Olympics he’ll go faster ? Well history says probably the same or marginally slower.
200 fly in 2008 doesn’t count? He swam that race blind. He won Olympic gold and broke the WR with his goggles full of water, and STILL went faster than in 07, even if it was marginal. On a facebook live chat someone asked MP how fast he thinks he could have gone in that race had his goggles not filled up, and he said he thinks 1:50 high. MP is the king of swimming faster in Olympic years, no one does it better. He steps up when it counts over and over again. Not sure where your argument is coming from?
King of swimming fast in Olympic years?hmmm
Facts speak for themselves he swims quick every year, not any quicker in Olympic year.
More like King of winning races.
He steps up and wins races.
He doesn’t step up and do super ridiculous times everyone predicts.
The water isn’t any faster in Olympic year.
He swims times related to his ability.
2008 and 2009 shouldn’t count in terms of comparison to other years because the suit technology was superior.
the results still stand and are in some cases spectacular, but Phelps dominance in 2003 and 2007 and personal improvements in them years (imo) are better than 2004/2008. Obviously 8 golds is incredible, but… Read more »