NCAA Championships during Olympic years often occupy an uncomfortable space. While professional swimming is growing slowly, college swimming programs remain the top developers of Olympic swimming talent in the US (and abroad). The NCAA meet is the most competitive international short course meet in the world. But in an Olympic year its proximity to the Games can make the idea of “peaking” for a yards competition seem ridiculous.
To put the results of these past few weekends in Olympic context, one needs to separate which of the amazing short course yards performances could actually mean something when the pool is far longer. In contrast, which performance is just great short course yards swims, that ultimately mean little on the world stage.
So here are three record breaking swims that are a big deal in the context of Rio, and one that isn’t so much:
Ryan Murphy‘s backstroke swims
Murphy’s swims this past weekend culminated in recognition as co-swimmer of the meet. Murphy’s performance in the 100 back is probably the biggest correction that event has seen since Neil Walker’s 44.92 in 1997. Walker however, was always somewhat of a short course phenom. What’s most impressive about Murphy’s performances is that he has proven himself to be a good long course swimmer.
His improvement from 44.1 a year ago to 43.5 this year suggests that Murphy could better Aaron Piersol’s world record this summer. Murphy was all over the map in Kazan last summer, not even qualifying for the 100 but ending up on both the mixed medley and men’s 4×100 relay teams.
The event that Murphy did qualify in last summer was the 200, one that he has now improved over a second. If he can improve a similar amount on long course, he should win a medal in an event where Americans were shut out in Kazan
Townley Haas‘ 200 Free
The shockwaves from Haas outstanding relay and individual 200 free performance will travel well beyond US borders. Haas improved his short course 200 free an astounding three seconds in one year. Watching the individual swim, it’s striking that many of the things you would expect from such a drop simply aren’t there. Haas isn’t dominating underwater or snapping off significantly faster turns. He’s simply swimming a lot faster than everyone else.
That kind of performance, along with Haas’ history of good long course swimming, means that Haas is all but certain to make USA’s 4×200 relay, and will contend for an individual spot in the event come Omaha. Of a more minor note, Haas improved his 500 freestyle by five seconds, and has historically been a much better in the 400 versus the 500. If he makes a similar improvement in long course, his 400 time should be around 3:42
Caeleb Dressel‘s Sprinting and Starting Ability
Yes, we all know that Caeleb Dressel swam incredibly fast. He absolutely demolished an NCAA record that was set by the current LCM world record holder, who was wearing a full body suit at both times. Like Haas and Murphy, Dressel is not just a good short course swimmer. He put up a 21.53 last summer after posting an 18.67 in SCY. With all due respect to the Nathan Adrian led group of sprinters who have hung around for 2016, America desperately needs a sprinter of Dressel’s potential to break through.
A similar improvement in long course would not only put Dressel in contention for gold this past summer, but also put him close to the world record. It is also just as important how Dressel is going so fast. Dressel has developed a start that should rival Florent Manadou on the world stage. If the two swim side by side in Rio, each could somewhat negate each other’s starting advantage by denying clean water off the block.
Now for a couple swims that don’t necessarily look as strong this summer
Will Licon‘s 200 Breast
Will Licon has been an outstanding NCAA swimmer who has surprised many by breaking a record that seemed like it might have a long life when it was set. Kevin Cordes new standard in short course breaststroking was ultimately short lived. However, Licon was 1:49 a year ago, then produced a 2:10 over the summer. The competitiveness of the 200 breaststroke long course suggests that even if Licon can get to 2:08 this summer, it likely will not be enough to medal.
In fact, it could be fair to say that as impressive as Licon’s (and Cordes’) swims seem in the NCAA world, this is probably an event that is farther behind the international standard than many other NCAA races. Cordes was the only swimmer in the final in Kazan who was developed by the college system.
The big mover and shaker from this race this summer should be Josh Prenot, who boosted his short course three seconds from a year ago and then proceeded to swim 2:08 in LCM the following summer.
Gotta admit this looks pretty accurate after the fact (especially the call of Prenot over Licon). Well done, Mr. DeSantis
Interesting idea for an article, but makes wayyyy too many generalizations. The author should have emphasized that these were predictions. I imagine that if Licon reads this it will really fuel the fire- perhaps swim swam did him a favor. I’d like to see a prediction article like this for the women’s meet (though the W NCAA’s were arguably more depleted of talent this year compared to the men’s due to more swimmers redshirrting/ deferring)
I believe in Sergio. Watch for something special for Cordes like there was for Schooling, Dressel and Murphy.
Sergio coached the high school swimmers at bolles. Caleb did not swim for the high school and swam only for the club under Jason Calanog who now coaches with Texas A&M
3:42!! A 4:09 is impressive but a 3:42 is outstanding only 3 people have been a 3:42 in the non super suit era. I see him and grothe making it though
To touch on the comments about moving everything to LCM, that would greatly hurt the sport of swimming in the US. It’s already expensive to build a pool, and many administrations would say “let’s cut that” if faced with the option to cut a program or invest in building a 50m.
I went to Grand Valley State in Michigan. We have a 6 lane, 25 yard pool and no realistic way to train long course. Teams with long course pools would have a major advantage and in my belief it would overall really hurt swimming because few places would invest the money, and many small club teams would fail to compete with larger clubs in 50m pools.
Personally, I think… Read more »
I think Licon is a good pick actually. Behind cordes 200 Brest is very weak.
I don’t think Cordes is even a lock. He hasn’t put up any impressive times this year and he has a history of choking at big meets. In the 200 breast, I would rate Prenot, Cordes, and Fink as having roughly equal chances. Miller and Licon right behind.
you mean like he choked his way to a silver medal at worlds in the 200?
LOL, PVDH, I wish I could “choke” that bad!
very wrong to talk about Cordes the way u did . It seems u have not seen him swim last summer ….where were you ?
Well said!
I love the prediction game, but it’s tough territory, sensitive territory for the U.S. Olympic Trials (aka “The Meet of Tears”). I swam at three OTs and had three different experiences, the worst being a 3rd place in 1996 that ended my career.
As fast as Murphy, Haas and Dressel are, all will have to fight like hell to make their first Olympic Team while battling nerves. It is not easy, no matter how fast you are. Making the final, being in the hunt for the team is an immense accomplishment…. and then there those who are exceptional talents who fall short at the most important meet of the quad, missing their taper….. I think US Trials is far… Read more »
Out of curiosity, can you name a few swimmers who were huge heavy favorites to qualify or even medal at the olympics that didn’t end up qualifying due to a bad trials meet?
Pablo in 1988….was World Record holder in 100 Fly and finished 3rd at US Olympic Trials.
Just one that I know of, certain there are many others.
Pablo Morales 1988 is the big one that comes to mind. ’84 silver medal, ’86 world record, tons of NCAA ch’ships, ’92 gold medal, but got nipped by Biondi and Mortensen in the 100 fly in Austin and I think by Mel and maybe Mark Dean in the 200, and I think Wharton and Stapleton in the 200 IM. Biondi, Mel, and Wharton were favorites, but everybody expected Morales to be there in one or two of those events.
Steve Bentley in ’88 maybe, but I forget…there may have been injury or other stuff going on with him after his ’87 AR in the 200 breast.
A bit of an asterisk, but I think Jenny Thompson in 96 and Natalie Coughlin in 12 were both heavy favorites in multiple events, and only managed to qualify in one relay (and maybe even only as a 5th/6th alternate?).
Thanks guys!
Jenny Thompson in 1996 (didn’t qualify for any individual events), Pablo Morales in 1988, Natalie Couglin in 2012 (no individual events), Hayley McGregory in 2004/2008, Liz Pelton in 2012, Katie Hoff in 2012, Gary Hall Jr. 2008, Erik Vendt 2008