2025 College Swimming Previews: #8 Stanford Men Boosted by Strong Senior Class

It’s that time of the year again. SwimSwam will be previewing the top 12 men’s and women’s teams (and then some) from the 2024 NCAA Championships. Follow along with the College Swimming Preview Channel. Want to read even more? Check out the latest edition of the SwimSwam magazine. 

#8 STANFORD CARDINAL

Key Losses: Rex Maurer (Texas Transfer, 1 NCAA Relay, 48 PAC-12 Points), Luke Maurer (USC Transfer, 2 NCAA Relays, 35 PAC-12 Points), Preston Forst (11 PAC-12 Points)

Key Additions: HM Daniel Li (CA – Breast), Misha Andriyuk (CA – Diving), Finn Harland (New Zealand – Back), Abram Mueller (WI – Breast), Go Nagaoka (Japan – Breast)

Returning Fifth-Years: Rick Mihm (33 PAC-12 Points, 3 NCAA Events), Hunter Hollenbeck (28 PAC-12 Points, 1 NCAA Event), Ethan Dang (11 PAC-12 Points)

GRADING CRITERIA

Over the years, we’ve gone back and forth on how to project points, ranging from largely subjective rankings to more data-based grading criteria based on ‘projected returning points.’ We like being as objective as possible, but we’re going to stick with the approach we’ve adopted post-Covid. The “stars” will rely heavily on what swimmers actually did last year, but we’ll also give credit to returning swimmers or freshmen who have posted times that would have scored last year.

Since we only profile the top 12 teams in this format, our grades are designed with that range in mind. In the grand scheme of college swimming and compared to all other college programs, top 12 NCAA programs would pretty much all grade well across the board. But in the interest of making these previews informative, our grading scale is tough – designed to show the tiers between the good stroke groups, the great ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group types.

• 5 star (★★★★★) – a rare, elite NCAA group projected to score 25+ points per event
• 4 star (★★★★) – a very, very good NCAA group projected to score 15-24 points per event
• 3 star (★★★) – a good NCAA group projected to score 5-14 points per event
• 2 star (★★) – a solid NCAA group projected to score 1-4 points per event
• 1 star (★) –  an NCAA group that is projected to score no points per event, though that doesn’t mean it’s without potential scorers – they’ll just need to leapfrog some swimmers ahead of them to do it

We’ll grade each event discipline: sprint free (which we define to include all the relay-distance freestyle events, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off point for discussion, rather than a reason to be angry.

Also, keep in mind that we are publishing many of these previews before teams have posted finalized rosters. We’re making our assessments based on the best information we have available at the time of publication, but we reserve the right to make changes after publication based on any new information that may emerge regarding rosters. If that does happen, we’ll make certain to note the change.

2023-2024 LOOKBACK

The Stanford men have been a consistent fixture in the top 10 at NCAAs at the end of every season, and last year was no different. The Cardinal finished in eighth place for the second year in a row, scoring 177 points at the 2024 championships, improving their total score by 33.5 points from 2023, despite big names like Rex Maurer and Andrei Minakov scoring less points than they were slated to.

A great deal of the Stanford swimmers found themselves posting best times during the postseason, showing considerable development from the program. While a good thing at face value, the downside to this was many swimmers hitting their best times at PAC-12s and then adding time a month later at NCAAs. The Cardinal finished second at the final PAC-12s behind Arizona State, with an ‘A’ finalist in every event and multiple podium finishes.

Ron Polonsky and Jack Ryan had standout NCAA seasons last year, with the duo being the only swimmers to score in multiple events (Polonsky in the 100 breast/200 IM, Ryan in the 1m/3m springboard). Ryan scored a team-leading 31 points on the boards, and Polonsky scored 16 in the pool. Other finalists included Minakov in the 200 fly and Henry McFadden in the 200 free. The Cardinal relays had another great year, with each one placing within the top nine and four of the five earning automatic All-American designations.

SPRINT FREE: ★★ ½

Stanford has many swimmers who are capable of contributing to a very strong 200/400/800 freestyle relay, and a few who have the potential to score on relays. Their aces in the sprint free department seem to be Andrei Minakov and Henry McFadden, but they run into some issues with overextending Minakov. The senior has four individual times that would have scored at NCAAs last year, in the 100/200 free and the 100/200 fly, but he has also competed on all five relays for the Cardinal at every NCAA meet he’s been to. If he swam his maximum possible load (assuming he made finals in all three individual events), that’d be 1500 yards of sprinting across 11 different swims, which would surely have its deficits. If he were to swim the 100 and 200 freestyles, he’d have a shot at placing, but his recent strengths have fallen more in the butterfly events.

With Minakov likely electing to swim the butterfly events and relays instead of the freestyles, the point-scoring load is placed on the shoulders of McFadden. The rising sophomore was one of four individual scorers for the Card last year at NCAAs, placing 11th in the 200 free and scoring six points as the fastest freshman in the field. He also swam the 100 freestyle, where he was 26th. After one year of NCAA swimming under his belt, McFadden seems to have adjusted nicely to college swimming, dropping time in multiple events. If he continues to progress in the way that he did this year, we’ll likely see many more NCAA points from him in the future. Andres Dupont finished 26th in the 200 freestyle, just over a second off of McFadden and 0.66 seconds away from qualifying for the final.

The 50 freestyle is one of the weaker areas for the Stanford team, with no swimmers yet reaching the 19.04 scoring threshold from the previous two years’ NCAAs. Rafael Gu and Dupont both swam the event last year, placing 36th and 48th. The team’s best time from last year comes from Jonathan Tan, with a 19.20. Tan will need to drop a little bit of time to crack into finals next year, but as a sophomore, he’s still got lots of time to improve. Dupont and Gu (35th) also swam the 100 free at NCAAs, with Dupont coming in 23rd, only 0.28 seconds away from qualifying for the final.

DISTANCE FREE: ★★

Without Rex Maurer and Preston Forst for the 2024-2025 season, the next fastest Stanford swimmer in the 500 freestyle is Henry McFadden. McFadden placed 34th in the 500 last year at NCAAs, swimming it on top of the 100 free, 200 free, and 400/800 free relays. It’s unclear if he’ll swim it again this year, as his best time of 4:16.61 was over three seconds from the time it took to qualify for finals, and he will likely have a better chance of scoring in the 100/200 double than the 200/500 double.

Liam Custer’s Stanford-best time of 14:46.22 (swam at PAC-12s) would have scored three points at NCAAs last year in the 1650. His lifetime best of 14:37.86 comes from December of 2020 (when he was still in high school) and would have scored 15 points and been third overall. If he can hit his taper correctly this year or get down to near where he was four years ago (which could happen, he dropped 13 seconds in the 1650 between his freshman and sophomore years), he has the potential to make an evident impact in the distance group.

Custer and Gabe Machado have both made appearances on the Stanford NCAA teams in the distance freestyle events. This past year, Custer placed 30th in the 1650 and 50th in the 500. In 2023, Machado placed 27th in the 1650 and 38th in the 500.

BACKSTROKE: ★★

Aaron Sequeira returns as Stanford’s top backstroker for the 2024-2025 season, with a set of 45.23/1:39.62 best times in the 100 and 200 backstrokes. Both of these times came from PAC-12s last year, and the 1:39.62 would have scored at NCAAs. Sequeira was off his best times in both events at national championships last year, adding time in both the 100 and 200. He competed in the 100 fly/100 back double on day three of competition, placing just around his season best in the 100 fly but adding 0.79 seconds in the 100 back to place 31st. He scored in the 200 back at 2023 NCAAs, and he’s very capable of hitting these times again, just with a correctly timed taper.

Josh Zuchowski also competed in the 100 and 200 backstrokes at NCAAs in 2024, finishing 38th and 34th respectively. He was just off of his season best in the 100 but added nearly two seconds in the 200. His previous best times were a bit off what was needed to score in finals, but if we see time drops from the rising junior we could see him in the top 16 at nationals.

The Cardinal also have Hayden Kwan, who scored points from the ‘B’ final of both backstroke events at PAC-12s last year. His best times are 46.70 and 1:41.37, both from 2023 PAC-12s. Stanford will also bring in Finn Harland, an incoming freshman from New Zealand who has posted LCM best times of 54.74 in the 100 backstroke and 50.55 in the 100 freestyle. Harland will join one of the smaller groups on the Stanford team and look to make an impact.

BREASTSTROKE: ★★★

Senior Ron Polonsky and Junior Zhier Fan are the fastest swimmers in Stanford history in the 100 breaststroke, with a 50.87 and a 51.29 to carve themselves into the top of the Cardinal record books. They’ll both come back for one more year together after a great season last year.

Polonsky was Stanford’s sole individual ‘A’ finalist in the pool, and he finished eighth in finals with a 51.25 after becoming the first swimmer in the school’s history to break the elusive 51-second barrier during the morning’s prelims session. If he had gone his best time in the finals again, he would have been third. Fan’s 51.29 came from the PAC-12 finals, where he dropped nearly half a second and finished third behind Polonsky and now-NCAA record-holder Liam Bell. His best time would’ve been just shy of qualifying for the ‘A’ final at NCAAs, but he placed 27th in finals with a 52.34.

Both Polonsky and Fan have best times from 2024 that would have scored at the national level in both breaststroke events, but they fell slightly short at NCAAs, placing 19th and 35th respectively. The issue for Polonsky comes with the late timing of the 200 breaststroke relative to the other events in the meet, considering he had already swam the 200 IM (twice), 100 breaststroke (twice), 200 medley relay, 400 medley relay, and 800 free relay before even getting to the prelims of the 200 breaststroke. That’s 750 yards of breaststroke and 200 yards of freestyle before he even stepped onto the blocks for the 200. Even so, he was only a second off of his lifetime best of 1:52.27.

Polonsky, Fan, returning fifth-year Ethan Dang (52.46/1:53.51), and senior Hayden Zheng (52.79/1:54.45) will be joined by three incoming freshman breaststrokers, with Daniel Li (52.43/1:55.08), Abram Mueller (52.98/1:57.27), and Go Nagaoka (1:02.58/2:15.44 LCM) to round out a deep breaststroke group. If these newcomers follow similar trajectories as the already well-established breaststrokers at Stanford, they have the potential to score some points later on down the line.

BUTTERFLY: ★★★ ½ 

Andrei Minakov was the NCAA champion in the 100 butterfly in 2022 and finished fourth in the event in 2023, but failed to qualify for finals in 2024. His best time of 43.71 (swam in 2022) places him as the fourth fastest performer of all time, behind Caeleb Dressel, Josh Liendo, and Youssef Ramadan. He was seemingly off form this year in the 100, but not by a wide margin, as his fastest time of 44.16 came from a dual meet against Arizona State in the winter. At that same meet, he broke the Stanford school record in the 200 butterfly, swimming a 1:38.63, which he rebroke a month later with a 1:38.61. At NCAAs, he was almost two seconds off of his best time, but still managed to qualify and eventually win the ‘B’ final.

Rafael Gu and Aaron Sequeira were on the verge of qualifying for the NCAA final this year, placing 21st and 24th in the final respectively, with Sequeira missing out by only 0.19 seconds and Gu by even less (0.13). These two swimmers, who placed second and third in PAC-12s, have best times that would have scored last year, but both were just ever so slightly off. If the trio of Gu, Sequeira, and Minakov can carry their peak forms into NCAAs next year, they have the potential to score a lot of points for the Cardinal.

Rick Mihm qualified for the 200 fly this year, placing 26th. This was Mihm’s third individual NCAA event at the 2024 championships, accompanied by the 200 and 400 IMs. He swam to a best time of 1:42.32, getting him within a second of the time it took to earn a second swim. Gibson Holmes (1:42.35) and Henry McFadden (1:43.11) competed in the event at PAC-12s, both making the ‘A’ final, but neither swam the event at NCAAs. McFadden is consistent across the board with his swims, but will likely focus on the 100/200 freestyles and relays at NCAAs, as he did last year. Holmes and Mihm will need to drop some more time if they’re to score in the 200 fly, but they will be dangerous at ACCs next year.

The Cardinal could showcase the depth of their strong butterfly group next year in a way that earns a lot of points, if these swimmers all hit their taper at the correct time.

IM: ★★★

Polonsky, like Minakov, runs into the issue of having best times in four events that would have scored at NCAAs, in both breaststrokes and both IMs. For the past two years, he’s elected to swim the 100 breast over the 400 IM, a decision that proved worthy, as he scored points in the former event both years. It’s likely that Polonsky will continue this wave for another year, only swimming the 200 IM instead of the IM double, as he’s likely to take on a heavy event load (and 800 more yards would not make his meet any easier). He’s scored in the 200 IM every year of his career, (12th in 2024, 5th in 2023, 9th in 2022), and is looking to add a fourth finals appearance to round out his time at Stanford. He hasn’t been at his best time of 1:39.96 since 2022, but he has been consistently fast enough to score.

Stanford’s other returning IMers include rising junior Liam Custer (34th, 400 IM) and fifth-year Rick Mihm (18th, 200 IM/26th, 400 IM). Mihm was only 0.25 seconds away from qualifying for the consolation final in the 200, and both he and Custer were slightly further off in the 400. Mihm’s best times in both IM events (1:42.10/3:41.92) came from the 2024 PAC-12s, and combined for a total of 0.04 seconds away from qualifying for both finals (0.03 in the 200 IM, 0.01 in the 400). If he can continue the ride from ACCs or even drop time at nationals, Mihmm has a good chance of scoring in both events.

DIVING: ★★★ ½ 

After last season’s finish and this year’s Olympic Trials, Stanford is projected to have a very good season on the boards. Rising senior Jack Ryan finished third on the three-meter and fourth on the one-meter to earn a total of 31 points for the Cardinal, making him their best individual scorer at last year’s NCAAs. Hunter Hollenbeck, a returning fifth year, also dove for the Card at NCAAs, placing 27th on the 3m. Both Ryan and Hollenbeck finaled in both springboard events at the PAC-12 championships, with Ryan winning both and Hollenbeck finishing in seventh.

The platform event was Stanford’s weakest diving event last year, with no Zone E or NCAA competitors. Hunter Hollenbeck placed 13th at PAC-12s last year, but his stronger events seemed to be on the springboards. To fill this platform gap from last year, Misha Andriyuk comes in looking to make an immediate impact for the Cardinal. Andriyuk, a rising freshman from San Jose, is already very familiar with Stanford diving, as he trains at Avery Aquatic Center with the Stanford Diving Club.

Andriyuk placed seventh on the platform at the United States Olympic Trials in June, and at age 18 stood as one of the youngest competitors in the field. Also finding success at the Olympic Trials was Jack Ryan, who placed third in the synchronized springboard event with his partner Grayson Campbell, a former Texas diver. A member of this season’s Stanford diving team was represented in every diving final at trials, as Ryan also placed seventh in the individual three-meter springboard.

If Ryan and Hollenbeck can continue their momentum from this past year on the boards, and Andriyuk can adapt to competing in college successfully, we could see a truly noteworthy season from Stanford diving.

RELAYS: ★★★★ 

At last year’s NCAAs, Stanford scored 115 of its 177 points on relays, placing within the top 10 in all five. Only the 200 freestyle relay placed outside the top 8, placing ninth and scoring 18 points. Their best relay finish came from their 400 medley relay, with the team of Aaron Sequeira (45.57), Ron Polonsky (51.21), Andrei Minakov (43.92), and Rafael Gu (41.27) tying for fifth place with Tennessee and scoring 27 points. The Cardinal will return 17 of their 20 relay legs, all except for Rex Maurer– who led off the 200 medley relay in a 21.02– and Luke Maurer– who swam the third leg on both the 200 (19.11) and 800 (1:32.28) freestyle relays.

Minakov swam all five relays last year, and he will likely try for a similar schedule this year. His versatility in the relay events is invaluable for Stanford, as he makes a difference on each one he’s on. Gu, while yet to crack into a final in an individual event, has been a crucial member of Stanford’s relays. Henry McFadden anchored both the 400 and 800 freestyle relays as a freshman, and he’ll continue to establish himself as a mainstay for the Cardinal in the coming years.

To fill Luke Maurer’s spot on the 800 relay, Stanford will likely turn to Andres Dupont, who holds a best 200 free time of 1:32.42 (flat start, leading off their PAC-12 800 free relay). As for the 200 freestyle relay, sophomore Jonathan Tan boasts a 19.20 flat start and has gone as fast as 18.95 with a flying start. Aaron Sequeria, Stanford’s top returning backstroker, will probably fill Rex Maurer’s 200 medley relay leadoff leg, as he has been as fast as 21.30 leading off relays. The Cardinal returns all of the members of their 400 medley and 400 freestyle relays, both of which scored over 20 points at NCAAs.

Total Stars: 23.5/40

2024-2025 OUTLOOK

Andrei Minakov, Ron Polonsky, and Jack Ryan all look poised to make waves during their senior seasons at Stanford, looking to add even more finals appearances and All-American designations to their collections. Their longtime NCAA experience and comfortability with the program will set them up nicely for this year, and each has the potential to score many points for the Cardinal. The only non-rising-senior to score points at last year’s nationals, Henry McFadden, will also find himself in a powerful position this year, especially in the 100/200 freestyles and on relays.

Seniors Aaron Sequeira and Hunter Hollenbeck have all had strong NCAA performances in the past, and their experience only adds to the strength of this coming year’s senior class. With many different names being mentioned as potential individual scorers and a lot of options for relays, Stanford can produce an impressive performance at nationals if they play their cards right and their swimmers are all on form.

Despite Stanford scoring 33.5 more points this year than they did in the year prior, they maintained their 8th-place position in the national rankings. This year, they’ve closed the gap on a few teams, and they have the potential to improve their rank from the previous two years– if their swimmers can continue to show their capabilities when the time comes for NCAAs and peak at the right time.

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