2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Previews: Murph and The Magic Man Have Men’s 100 Back Locked Down

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Session Start Times (ET):
  • 11 a.m. Prelims
  • 7:45 p.m. Finals (varying based on broadcast needs)
• Meet Central
• Broadcast Info
• SwimSwam’s Definitive Guide to Trials
• Psych Sheets
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• SwimSwam Pick ’em Contest

MEN’S 100 BACK — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 51.60 — Thomas Ceccon, Italy (2022)
• American Record: 51.85 — Ryan Murphy (2016)
• U.S. Open Record: 51.94 — Aaron Peirsol, United States (2009)
• World Junior Record: 52.53 — Kliment Kolesnikov, Russia (2018)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Evgeny Rylov, ROC — 51.98
• 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Ryan Murphy — 52.33
• U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 55.69
• 2024 Olympic Qualifying Time — 53.74

The men’s 100 backstroke is one of the more straightforward events at the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials. There’s a clear top pair, and anyone who wants to dethrone them has their work cut out for them.

MAGIC! (And Murph!)

Simply put, the duo of Ryan Murphy and Hunter Armstrong have had this event locked down for the last three years. The pair—who now train together at Cal—have earned the roster spots at the last three major qualification meets (2021 Olympic Trials, 2022 Trials, 2023 U.S. Nationals).

Murphy has been the face of American men’s backstroke for the better part of the decade. He’s got an impressive medal haul from his long career and is a consistent gold-medal threat on the world’s highest stage. At the 2023 World Championships, he earned gold in this event, getting the better of world record holder Thomas Ceccon for his first long course world title in this event.

When Ceccon broke the world record during the 2022 Worlds final, Murphy clocked 51.97 for silver, his fourth time sub-52 and first in four years. A year later, Murphy got the better of Ceccon and earned his first long course world title in this event (52.22).

From his individual races to his relay performances, Murphy has proven that he knows how to go fast when it matters. He’s a clear pick for a spot on the Paris Olympic team in this event but the question will be whether he gets first or second. That’s because for the last two qualification meets, Armstrong has gotten the better of him.

Hunter Armstrong (photo: Jack Spitser)

Armstrong was one of the surprises of the 2021 Olympic Trials. He qualified for the Olympic team by finishing 2nd in the 100 back in a then-PB of 52.48, roaring from 7th at the turn to 2nd with a 26.75 closing split.

He’s only continued to improve since that swim, showcasing speed in the 50/100 back and the 100 freestyle. At the 2022 World Championships, Armstrong joined Ceccon and Murphy on the podium. He took bronze in 51.98, helping create a historic podium where all three swimmers were sub-52 seconds. He joined an elite group with that swim, becoming the sixth man in history to break that 52-second barrier.

Armstrong has showcased his consistency across the quad by being the only 100 backstroker to medal at the last three World Championships. After just making it into the semifinal and final, Armstrong repeated as the bronze medalist in 2023, then claimed gold at the 2024 World Championships. His 52.68 from Doha is the fastest time by an American this season.

Throughout the quad, neither Murphy nor Armstrong have given a reason to doubt their position as the men to beat. In many ways, they’ve really only strengthened their cases.

Armstrong has shown a preference for just sneaking through the rounds, which is a risky game to play. But when you’re a magician, maybe you like your odds better than the average person. He’s one of the favorites, though in this field he can’t afford to play around much. But barring disaster, he and Murphy should sail through to the final where they’re the top contenders to punch their tickets to Paris.

The (P)B-52s

Murphy and Armstrong are ensconced as the two leaders of this race. But there’s a reason why we swim the race—anything can happen. And if anyone is going to upstage the pair at the top, then it’s most likely to be one of the three swimmers who’ve already broken 53 seconds in their careers.

And so, we’ve arrived at the Shaine Casas question. One of the most unpredictable swimmers at the meet, Casas’ track record of performing best in ‘B’ finals or at in-season meets is well-documented throughout the last Olympic cycle in a variety of events. In the 100 backstroke, his lifetime best 52.51—which ties him for 6th fastest American—comes from a 2022 Austin Sectionals meet. (He did make the 2022 Worlds roster in the 200 back though.)

Casas finished 3rd in this event in 2021 (52.78). In this qualifying period, Casas’ fastest time is 53.54 from the 2024 Knoxville PSS. That puts him 9th on the psych sheet, which feels indicative of how his performance in this event at Trials could go—it’s equally as easy to predict him making the final as it is missing it. For the record, it took 53.82 to make the 2021 Trials final.

Justin Ress (photo: Jack Spitser)

Justin Ress has the next fastest personal best, a 52.73 from finishing 3rd at the 2022 International Team Trials. Ress has been all too familiar with 3rd in the 100 back this quad; he was 3rd at the 2023 U.S. Nationals as well (52.90).

Ress is known for his 50 backstroke capabilities, though he’s a threat in both the 100 back/100 free as well. Those two events are his best shot at the Olympic team without the 50 backstroke on the menu. Ress and Armstrong are the top U.S. swimmers in the 50 backstroke, though so far, Ress hasn’t matched the progress Armstrong has shown in the 100 back.

He’s consistently produced 52s in the 100 back at the last three qualification meets. That keeps him safely in the mix for a top-four finish but he’s yet to get the better of the top two.

If you’re looking for an upset pick, perhaps the “safest” pick is Murphy and Armstrong’s fellow Cal Bear, Destin Lasco. Lasco unexpectedly turned into an NCAA sensation in his freshman season in Berkeley. It took a little longer for him to break through in long course but he made the jump last summer, qualifying for Fukuoka in the 200 back and 100 freestyle.

Lasco touched 4th in the 100 backstroke at the 2023 U.S. Nationals after firing off a lifetime best 52.93 in prelims. He came into the meet with a PB of 54.08 and bypassed 53 entirely with a 1.15-second drop. That remains his only sub-53-second performance of his career so far, but he’ll likely be back under that barrier in Indianapolis. But will he be far enough under? The 200 back is the event that suits him better as he’s got a lot of work to do to catch up to his Berkeley training partners, but he should feature in the final.

We don’t expect either Murphy or Armstrong to be throwing down sub-52 times in Indianapolis. They don’t need to be at their best to qualify for Paris. They’ll likely be in the 52-low to mid-range, which does give these three swimmers a slight opening. If they can put up a big lifetime best in the final that’s their opportunity to dethrone Murphy and Armstrong.

Five For Fighting (For The Final)

Murphy, Armstrong, and Ress are the only three men who’ve reached the ‘A’ final in all of the last three qualification meets. Alongside them, it’s been a revolving door of talent.

Casas has featured in two of the three, as has Jack Aikins, who took an Olympic redshirt year from Virginia. That decision allowed Aikins to pick up valuable international experience as he raced at both the 2023 Pan Am Games and 2024 World Championships. In Doha he was just off his lifetime best of 53.45 with a 53.49. It was a strong February swim and a time could see him through to the final. He finished 6th in 2022 and 8th in 2023; he’s got a better shot at the team in the 200 back and his ceiling here is probably a the middle placement.

Daniel Diehl, Adam Chaney, Hunter Tapp, and Chris O’Connor have all ‘A’ finaled in the last three years and will be in the Indianapolis field. Of this bunch, Diehl’s got the fastest personal best—a 53.07 from the 2022 U.S. Open.

Daniel Diehl. Photo: Jon Reiter

In January, Diehl graduated from high school early and started training at NC State. The Wolfpack have a history of producing talented backstrokers, swimmers like Ress and Katharine Berkoff have trained there. Diehl said the decision was largely about getting the best preparation for the upcoming Olympic Trials so it will be time to see if that move paid off. He saw drops in yards after only a few weeks of training at NC State, so he could be the next man under 53 seconds next week.

Chaney, Tapp, and O’Connor all wrapped up NCAA seasons in March as well. Both Chaney and Tapp have represented the U.S. on the international stage before; most recently, Chaney raced at the 2023 Pan Ams and Tapp qualified for the 2023 LEN U23 European Championships.

The two are a study in opposites as Chaney has had his best results in yards and Tapp is better in meters. They’ve got similar lifetime bests here in the 100-meter back, with Chaney’s 53.34 slightly ahead of Tapp’s 53.45. Chaney did his PB more recently as well (2023 vs. 2021). Combined with the fact that the 200 back is where Tapp really finds his groove, Chaney may have the upper hand for a spot in the final.

O’Connor raced for the U.S. at the 2023 Pan Am Games along with Aikins and Chaney. That’s where he swam his season best of 54.61, which is almost a second off his personal best of 53.70 from the 2023 U.S. Nationals. In fact, he and Chaney both swam their PBs in that final, with Chaney finishing 5th and O’Connor taking 7th.

The Guess Who (Could Break Into The Final)

The swimmer with the best case for breaking into the championship final for the first time is Jack Wilkening. After a strong meet at Big Tens that followed up from a strong freshman season, the Michigan swimmer had a quiet NCAAs in March.

Will Modglin (photo: Jack Spitser)

But he rebounded quickly, popping a 53.37 lifetime best in the 100m backstroke at May’s Indy Cup. It was a personal best by .98 seconds and it pushed him up the psych sheet all the way to 7th, just behind Chaney. That’s a huge confidence boost for Wilkening heading into this meet—his first Olympic Trials.

Will Modglin is another up-and-coming swimmer to keep an eye on. He arrived at Texas last fall as a freshman with a 100-yard backstroke personal best of 45.01. Over the course of the season, he brought his time down to 44.20 to win the ‘B’ final at NCAAs. The time is a Texas school record and makes Modglin the #2 freshman in NCAA history.

He’s raced once since then at the Longhorn Elite Invite where he swam a 100 free PB and a season-best 54.74 100 back. That time doesn’t give away much, it’s off his personal best of 53.92. But given his gains in yards, Modglin could have a big swim in store for Trials in his home state.

Aidan Stoffle also arrives in Indianapolis with a sub-54 personal best. He swam his 53.62 lifetime best in the ‘C’ final of the 2023 U.S. Nationals, which would’ve qualified for the ‘A’ final if he’d done it in the morning. His younger brother, Nate Stoffle, could also make things interesting. He posted a 54.00 in prelims of the 2023 U.S. Nationals to make the ‘B’ final, where he tied with Tapp for 2nd.

The Verdict

It would be a big upset if anyone were to disrupt Murphy and Armstrong in this event. They’ve been the pair to beat since the 2021 Olympic Trials and no one’s been able to do it so far. The two just keep producing consistently fast times at both the national and international levels. If anyone’s going to do it, look for it to be one of the three swimmers who’ve already broken 53 seconds: Casas, Ress, or Lasco.

Beyond that, the 5th (Diehl) through 15th seed (Jack Dolan) are seeded within a second of each other, promising a close race for the rest of the lanes in the final.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Marcus Reyes-Gentry — With so many swimmers who’ve proven themselves on the collegiate stage hanging around in the middle of the psych sheet, it’s a bit of a challenge to identify someone who actually fits the term ‘dark horse’. We’re going with Marcus Reyes-Gentry, who swims for Notre Dame. Reyes-Gentry didn’t race this event for almost two years, then swam a 1.85 second personal best last summer (54.82). He’s already lowered that this season, clocking 54.62 at the 2024 Speedo Atlanta Classic. He’s seeded 22nd and if he’s got another drop in him when tapered, he could earn at least a second swim.