The calendar has flipped and the 2024 NCAA Championships are less than three months away.
As swimming programs across the country are wrapping up a tough stretch of winter training, preparing for the run-up to conference championships and ultimately NCAAs, it’s time for us to check in on where things stand regarding the team race at nationals.
Using the SwimSwam Swimulator, we can score out how an NCAA Championship meet would fare using times produced thus far in the 2023-24 season. See the results for the men’s meet below:
It’s important to note with all Swimulator results that diving is not included.
MEN’S NCAA SCORING – THROUGH MIDSEASON
| Rank | Team | Score |
| 1 | Arizona State University | 566 |
| 2 | Florida, University of | 340 |
| 3 | California, University of, Berkeley | 281.5 |
| 4 | North Carolina State University | 277 |
| 5 | Indiana University | 256.5 |
| 6 | University of Tennessee | 210 |
| 7 | Georgia, University of | 169 |
| 8 | Texas A&M University | 157.5 |
| 9 | Auburn University | 155 |
| 10 | Stanford University | 151.5 |
| 11 | Texas, University of | 117 |
| 12 | Notre Dame, University of | 112 |
| 13 | University of Southern California | 97 |
| 14 | Florida State University | 92 |
| 15 | Michigan, University of | 89.5 |
| 16 | University of Alabama | 83 |
| 17 | Arizona, University of | 76.5 |
| 18 | Ohio State University | 64 |
| 19 | Virginia, University of | 50 |
| 20 | Brigham Young University | 35 |
| 21 | VA Tech | 28 |
| 22 | Georgia Institute of Technology | 25 |
| 23 | Utah, University of | 24 |
| 24 | Louisville, University of | 22 |
| 25 | Wisconsin, University of, Madison | 19 |
| 26 | Towson University | 16 |
| 27 | Brown University | 14 |
| 28 | Oakland University | 9 |
| 29 | Pennsylvania State University | 6 |
| 30 | University of Incarnate Word | 5 |
| 31 | Southern Methodist University (M) | 4 |
| 31 | Harvard University | 4 |
| 31 | George Washington University | 4 |
| 34 | Northwestern University | 3 |
| 34 | Missouri, University of | 3 |
| 36 | Louisiana State University | 1 |
No one would be shocked to see Arizona State ranking first in the projected team race at this point. Not only have they been absolutely on fire so far, but they’ve been consistently swimming fast year-round throughout their rise as a program, a stark contrast to a team like Cal that tends to build into the season and saves everything for the NCAA Championships.
However, the gap we see the Sun Devils have over the field in midseason scoring is staggering: ASU sits 226 points clear of the next-best team, Florida, and incredibly has more than double the points of third-place Cal, the two-time defending champions.
The Sun Devils had a breakthrough runner-up finish at NCAAs last season. At the mid-point of the 2022-23 campaign, ASU projected to outscore the Golden Bears by 84.5 points, 415.5 to 331. That’s a wide gap, but it’s nowhere near the margin Bob Bowman‘s team has at this point.
The arrival of Ilya Kharun, the continued progression of rising stars like Hubert Kos and Jonny Kulow, and slam-dunk relays are among the primary reasons for ASU’s remarkable showing thus far, not to mention Leon Marchand, the best swimmer in the nation last season who has been quiet so far but will be a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.
Cal, on the other hand, only has four swimmers currently in position to score double-digit points. That number should rise assuming the likes of Bjorn Seeliger and Liam Bell are on form, but it still looks like an uphill battle for the Bears.
When looking at the top-10 Swimulated teams at this point in the season compared to last year’s NCAA results, the biggest jumps come from Georgia and Texas A&M, who were 12th and 14th last season but currently check out at seventh and eighth, respectively.
The most jarring drop is Texas, down into 11th after taking third last year and finishing either first or second in the eight seasons previous. Of course, a slide was coming given their significant departures, and this doesn’t factor in diving, but seeing them outside the top 10 just looks off. A big part of that has been struggles in the relay events, outside of the 800 free relay where they rank #1.
In terms of individual scorers, ASU’s Kos is the only swimmer projected to score the maximum 60 points as the top-ranked athlete in the 200 back, 200 IM and 400 IM, while Cal’s Destin Lasco, Tennessee’s Jordan Crooks and Sun Devil freshman Kharun also crack 50 points.
TOP INDIVIDUAL SCORERS – MIDSEASON
- Hubert Kos (ASU), 60
- Destin Lasco (Cal), 54
- Jordan Crooks (Tennessee), 52
- Ilya Kharun (ASU), 50
- Leon Marchand (ASU) / Chris Guiliano (Notre Dame) / Krzysztof Chmielewski (USC), 45
- –
- –
- David Schlicht (ASU), 43
- Will Modglin (Texas), 42
- Jack Dolan (ASU) / Gal Cohen Groumi (Michigan), 39
In the relays, ASU and Florida sit atop the heap, with Cal, NC State and Tennessee also in the top five. Texas, for context, only has 52 points on the board for relays, 40 of which come in the 800 free.
TOP RELAY SCORING TEAMS – MIDSEASON
- Arizona State, 180
- Florida, 162
- Cal, 145
- NC State, 137
- Tennessee, 128
- Indiana, 118
- Stanford, 92
- Georgia, 70
- Auburn, 65
- Florida State, 64
You have placed Marchand in the 2IM, 4IM and 2fly. Rational. He could win all three.
But my prefrence, to maximixe ASU’s points would be 2IM, 100 Breast, 200 Breast.
Thursday — 2IM is a slam dunk. Kos and Lesco would be co-favorites without Leon; Leon’s other choices would be the 500 or a double on Sat. or Sun. Even though he might be able to win the 500, it could take enough out of him to make him less impactful thereafter.
Friday — 400 IM conventional wisdom, but I feel pretty confident in Kos winning without Leon in the race. And I don’t think it would be a drawback to Leon’s star turn in the event in Paris.… Read more »
If all swimming scores hold to this, and just adding diving – does that jump IU to 3rd? challenge 2nd?
UVA 50 projected points is pretty putrid. Still time to turn it around but certainly not trending in the right direction.
Without stating the obvious, The talent on the men’s roster is not matching the results
Maybe the most measured critique you’ve ever levied. Proud of you for that.
I don’t think it’s totally unfair, though they did send some guys to PanAms and Jack Aikins is redshirting. There’s a lot of pressure coming up on the UVa men, and they’ve had kind of an odd couple of years. I think we can all feel that – where the women seem to put it together every time, the men have been good sometimes and not so good sometimes, people in and out – disjointed is the sensation that comes to mind.
If you factored in Heilman (200IM/100Fly or 200Free/200Fly) and Williamson (200IM/200Free/100Free), would they fall in the top 10 based on their swims from Winter Juniors?
Probably, yes. It’s a little dicey because Heilman / Williamson tapered, and most teams haven’t yet.
Also big impacts for their relays.
Williamson 39.5 or 28 points
Heilman 43 or 29 points
THANK YOU!!
Almost all ASU top scorer foreigners…. Damn, I remember all the flack certains school took because of this here……………………………………………………………..
If Cal were to win NCAAs this year it would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus
I guess we can all stop wondering why the US is losing its edge on the international level. When you look at the list of individual high scorers 7 of the 10 (I think) are from other countries. The NCAA programs used to give us a great advantage and now not so much. Not saying good or bad, right or wrong. Just saying.
Foreign swimmers I have observed have excellent potential, work extremely hard and know how to budget their time very well.
I’m sure they do and the results speak for themselves!!!
I don’t think it really answers a question so much as it poses one. Why is the NCAA system working better for athletes from other countries than athletes from the US? Is there something wrong with our developmental programs and the way it connects to the NCAA program? I don’t really have the answer or even a great guess, but I’m going to be thinking about that list for a while.
Other countries are training great swimmers. The US is training great swimmers from other countries. The US is not training its own swimmers as well. This is all of course relative – let’s not pretend like the US is not a swimming superpower anymore, but what does that 5/7… Read more »
Well stated
In general the US system has become lazy (broad generalization I know). It starts at the top …..very top.
I think what this list shows us is that there are a LOT of very talented athletes from other countries that are not getting the level of quality coaching US swimmers are getting, and when they do, they excel. In other words, US athletes don’t necessarily have more talent, just better opportunities.
A theory I have of this is because the US sports culture does not attract enough top talent into swimming as opposed to other sports. Since the US has so many sports programs available and swimming is not one of the biggest/most attractive sports our top talent will be drawn to other sports like basketball, football, baseball, track and field, etc as opposed to swimming, while other countries may attract more top tier athletic talent into swimming. Our coaching programs are so good that they will inevitably lead to great US swimmers, but the foreign kids like Marchand are more talented overall so US coaching will give them a bigger boost as opposed to the US kids
There are some comments by Leon Marchand and Hubert Kos in their SwimSwam interviews that may shed some light on this where they contrast swimming at ASU in the NCAA system, v Swimming in Europe. Both state they like the more meets and more opportunities to swim competition. However Coach Bowman has developed a program that combines international LCM training with NCAA training so this may not be a true comparison.
I’d like to point out a few redshirts and early graduations might change this list albeit slightly. Not to mention Ilya should’ve/could’ve represented the US.
I have watched many ASU meets and all I can say is that the Sun Devils are going to be on fire come NCAAs and agree with your scoring although it may be too low for ASU!
ASU Distance: Hungarian distance swimmer Zalan Sarkany is back on the ASU roster and has said he will be swimming in the meet at Mona Plumer this Saturday.
A few more potential points for ASU.
As reported by World Aquatics for 1 Nov 2023: Sarkany: Men 1500 Freestyle14:23.31Silver
25m20Hungarian National Championships (25m) The closest converter table time is: 14:29.13 converts to 14:24.15 Converters always have inaccuracies but either way Sarkany appears able to break 14:30
Zalan Sarkany in his first meet and swim at ASU in a dual meet against Grand Canyon University swims 1650 yards in 14:28.09 for a school record NCAA “A” cut, best time so far this year and faster than the NCAA Div 1 winning time last year!