2024 Australian Olympic Trials Previews: The Holes

2024 AUSTRALIAN OLYMPIC TRIALS

With the 2024 Australian Olympic Trials on the horizon, we’re looking at the different dynamics about to unfold at the Brisbane Aquatic Centre beginning on June 10th.

Although some clear-cut events are loaded with multiple would-be Olympians, other races will see athletes struggle to nail down the Olympic Qualification Times.

Men’s 200 Fly

On the men’s side, the 200m butterfly is one such event, with the Swimming Australia-mandated OQT sitting at a stiff 1:54.97, a threshold under which just one Australian swimmer has ever been.

Top 10 Aussie Men’s LCM 200 Butterfly Performers All-Time

  1. Nick D’Arcy – 1:54.46, 2009
  2. Matt Temple – 1:55.25, 2021
  3. David Morgan – 1:55.26, 2019
  4. Grant Irvine – 1:55.32, 2013
  5. Bowen Gough – 1:55.88, 2021
  6. Travis Nederpelt – 1:56.06, 2008
  7. Justin Norris – 1:56.17, 2000
  8. Chris Wright – 1:56.23, 2010
  9. Jayden Hadler – 1:56.28, 2011
  10. Mitchell Pratt – 1:56.41, 2014

Retired Olympian Nick D’Arcy owns the Australian national record in the 2fly, putting a time of 1:54.46 on the books nearly 15 years ago in 2009.

Since then, active swimmer Matt Temple has been the closest to that mark, owning a lifetime best of 1:55.25. Beyond him, among the top 10 fastest Aussie performers of all time, only David Morgan (1:55.26) and Bowen Gough (1:55.88) remain among those still competing.

However, Morgan’s personal best was from 2019 while Gough’s was clocked in 2021. Since then, the former has only managed times in the 1:58-range while the latter has been in the 1:57’s.

25-year-old Gough put up a time of 1:57.85 at April’s Open Championships, the primary benchmark meet prior to Trials, so he’ll need to drop another 3 seconds to approach the 1:54.97 needed for Paris.

Temple is still in contention, having raced this event in April as well. There on the Gold Coast, he settled for silver in 1:58.03 so he’ll be required to up his game if he wants a shot of adding this to his likely qualification in the 100m fly sprint.

The good news for Temple is that, among his packed Trials schedule which includes the 100m/200 free and 100m/200m fly, he’ll only have the 200m free under his belt before he tackles the 200m fly.

Women’s 100 Breast

The women’s potential Olympic squad was dealt a blow when relay gold medalist from Tokyo Chelsea Hodges announced her surprise retirement due to injuries. This leaves a hole not only in the 100m breast individual event but also asks the question of who may step up and become the breaststroke leg on the medley relay.

Swimming Australia has set the 1breast selection standard at 1:06.31, a barrier under which Hodges dipped with her personal best of 1:05.99 from the 2020 Olympic Trials held in 2021.

Beyond her, active swimmer Jenna Strauch remains the sole swimmer who has been in that territory, owning a career-quickest of 1:06.16 from the 2022 World Championships.

Top 10 Aussie Women’s LCM 100 Breaststroke Performers All-Time

  1. Leisel Jones – 1:05.09, 2006
  2. Sarah Katsoulis – 1:05.86, 2009
  3. Chelsea Hodges – 1:05.99, 2021
  4. Tarnee White – 1:06.04,2008
  5. Georgia Bohl – 1:06.12, 2016
  6. Jenna Strauch – 1:06.16, 2022
  7. Jessica Hansen – 1:06.20, 2018
  8. Taylor McKeown – 1:06.64, 2017
  9. Kaylee McKeown – 1:06.86, 2023 & Abbey Harkin – 1:06.86, 2023

Strauch enters these Trials as the top-seeded swimmer, with Abbey Harkin ranked #2, courtesy of her lifetime best of 1:06.88 from the heats at last year’s World Championships.

However, Harkin added time in the semi-finals to ultimately place 15th in 1:07.11 and this year’s World Championships saw her well off form, posting 1:09.01 for 25th after the heats.

Lurking among the contestants is 19-year-old Ella Ramsay. The Chandler swimmer fired off a new lifetime best of 1:06.87 just last month at the Sydney Open.

Splitting 31.82/35.05, Ramsay hacked her previous career-quickest mark of 1:07.64 to bits. If the Chandler ace has another card like that up her sleeve, she has the potential to sneak under that 1:06.31 qualification marker.

Another possible qualifier comes in the form of Sienna Toohey, the 15-year-old who has been carving out her own piece of the breaststroke pie as of late.

Although the youngster hasn’t cracked the 1:07 barrier yet, her progress has been on the right trajectory with the Aussies needing someone to step up and be relied upon in this discipline.

Finally, Tara Kinder and Matilda Smith aren’t outside the realm of possibility, with the respective 19- and 20-year-olds establishing new personal bests at the Japan Open last Deember.

At that competition, Kinder logged 1:08.49 while Smith popped a time of 1:07.72. Smith had never before been under the 1:08 barrier in the event before that performance.

In terms of the women’s medley relay, we’ve tossed around several scenarios related to the arsenal at Swimming Australia’s disposal.

Last year we examined the possibility of Kaylee McKeown taking over the breaststroke leg, with the Olympic multi-medalist having been as fast as 1:06.86 in her career.

Mollie O’Callaghan‘s recent 58.09 stunner in the women’s 100m back at this year’s Aussie Open Championships further opens the door to discussions of the St. Peters Western star taking on that leg instead of McKeown.

Whoever winds up in the breaststroke role will have a tall task ahead of her to repeat the game-changing split of 1:05.57 Hodges unleashed to help give her squad gold in Tokyo. That leg represented the 2nd-quickest of the entire Tokyo final, with only American champion Lydia Jacoby‘s 1:05.05 ahead of her.

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18 days ago

I wish Temple would get the AR for 200 fly, please, its been too long. M1500 2nd spot could be an issue. We’ll see.

commonwombat
18 days ago

W100BRS is the one clear hole on the women’s side. Whilst the AUS QT is debatable, at least one should snag a WA A mark.

Otherwise, 2 qualifiers per event should be “par” for almost every other event with the potential exception of the following:

  • W400IM – if Forrester has form then there’s 0 issue with Ramsey already hitting QT. Beyond them ….
  • W200IM – similar to above re Forrester for 2nd spot. Ramsey is “ball park”.
  • W200BRS – Strauch a likely lock for 1 spot but a couple are grouped around 2.24; highly likely that one will snag the QT

Whilst M200FLY is the most glaring hole on the men’s side; its no orphan

  • M200FLY –
… Read more »

Troyy
Reply to  commonwombat
18 days ago

Apparently Melverton was looking improved at that SPW exhibition so maybe she can challenge for top two in the 400 IM if Forrester is still off.

commonwombat
Reply to  Troyy
18 days ago

She’ll realistically need to be back to her 2022 levels to do so.

STRAIGHTBLACKLINE
18 days ago

I would have thought the men’s 100BK and 100BS were gaping holes.

Steve Nolan
19 days ago

Seeing Nick D’Arcy mentioned here immediately flashed me back to this absolute classic Dave & Gary post.

https://swimswam.com/dave-finally-gets-to-edit-the-column/

That’s just what his name is, to me.

(Tho it did come from this comment section: https://swimswam.com/dave-and-mostly-gary-present-whos-faster-vol-1-of/#comment-9245 )

Last edited 19 days ago by Steve Nolan
Swammer11
19 days ago

Will Australian trials be streaming on a platform in the US?

Sub13
Reply to  Swammer11
18 days ago

Very doubtful, but very easy to watch with a VPN and 9Now (which is free)

Nick B
19 days ago

Possible WR in the men’s 400 free. Short went 3:40.6 in Fukuoka, along with 7:37 in the 800, & 14:37 in the 1500.

I suspect his 3:41+ in April was untapered, as his 7:43+ 800 & 15:03 1500 from the same competition strongly suggest.

Snarky
Reply to  Nick B
19 days ago

Do distance swimmers really taper?

snailSpace
Reply to  Snarky
19 days ago

Just look at Finke. 15+ minutes 1500 in season, 14:3x at big meets. Something akin to a taper is definitely happening there.

Andy
Reply to  Nick B
19 days ago

Why would Short taper for this meet? There is no third person in any of his 3 events who can threaten him

Last year he swam 3:42 in April, 3:43 at trials before dropping to 3:40 at world champs

PFA
Reply to  Nick B
19 days ago

Think it’s possible but I actually think if a WR in this race goes down it will be winnington because he’s more likely going to be more tapered for trials than short likely will but who knows both of them are capable of breaking it and I think it’sa real possibility that it falls at trials

SwimStats
Reply to  PFA
19 days ago

I’m thinking/hoping for a three-way fight in Paris between Short, Winnington and Märtens with the winner breaking the record. Winnington doesn’t need to taper that badly.

Sub13
Reply to  SwimStats
18 days ago

Winnington wants a slot in the 200 relay and he will need to taper to get that

Sally
Reply to  Sub13
18 days ago

Les the men’s relay clash with the 800 free in Paris? I thought someone said it did.

Troyy
Reply to  Sally
18 days ago

It does so I imagine he’ll have to choose. Also possible he doesn’t make the 800 final in Paris leaving him free to race the 4×2.

Last edited 18 days ago by Troyy
Nick B
Reply to  PFA
19 days ago

That’s certainly a possibility if Short is not tapered. Winnington is sort of streaky, and that can work both ways.

North Sea
19 days ago

Only 2 holes. Not bad.

Troyy
Reply to  North Sea
18 days ago

Except there’s not only two. See men’s 1 back. The men’s 1 breast and 2 IM are also kinda holes.

RealCrocker5040
19 days ago

2 more hot takes

Cameron McExtraordinarySpeed goes a 20.98 in the 50 freestyle final while Cooper is beaten by both Nowakowski and Chalmers. Mc4704 will then throw down a 47.90 in the 100 free finals to get the relay spot.

Chalmers goes sub 51 in the 100 fly but gets third behind Shaun Champion and Mullet Man

About Retta Race

Retta Race

Former Masters swimmer and coach Loretta (Retta) thrives on a non-stop but productive schedule. Nowadays, that includes having just earned her MBA while working full-time in IT while owning French 75 Boutique while also providing swimming insight for BBC.

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