All hail the king…of fly that is, as 30-year-old Michael Phelps takes on the rest of the country in his pet event, the men’s 200m butterfly. As if the new dad hasn’t already made enough history with his 22 Olympic medals, if Phelps were to win the 200m butterfly in Omaha, it would make 4 straight Trials titles in this event for the North Baltimore Aquatic swimmer. That would mark the longest streak of any individual event winner in U.S. swimming history.
With the stunner of a time Phelps put up at U.S. Nationals last summer, 1:52.94, the 18-time Olympic gold medalist rendered himself the favorite for Omaha, primed to take on the likes of domestic rivals Tom Shields, Tyler Clary and Jack Conger with his physique in its best form since 2008.
Michael Phelps, (photo: Mike Lewis)
Phelps has consistently contested this event over the course of his comeback years, putting up the nation’s top times along the way. He followed his San Antonio feat up with a solid 1:56.11 at Winter Nationals last December, while also clocking a 1:58.14 at the Arena Pro Swim in Mesa this past April. Fueling his swims, no doubt, is the desire to take on South African Chad Le Clos in Rio, as the two have had some trash talking going on since Le Clos claimed the World Championship silver medal in the event last year.
To get to Rio, though, Phelps will need to fend off my pick for 2nd place in Omaha this year, University of Texas swimmer Jack Conger. Conger has been performing impressively since coming up short on an individual level at the NCAA Championships, with some fearing he’ll become college’s best swimmer to never have won a non-relay title.
The 21-year-old Conger’s 200 fly time of 1:54.54 from Summer Nationals put him in the runner-up spot behind Phelps in San Antonio and still stands as the nation’s 2nd-fastest time since London. In fact, his time would have earned the 2nd place spot at 2012’s Trials, beating out Clary’s time of 1:55.12.
Jack Conger, (photo: Tim Binning)
Conger put up a 1:57.01 at the Longhorn Elite Invite earlier this month and has consistently proven he can be threatening on the long course scene. If there’s a weakness with Conger it’d be a two-folded one in the form of his attempting this event for the first time at an Olympic Trials, as well as the fact that he’ll most likely have the 200m freestyle final on the same night as the butterfly semi-final. The 2free/2fly double shouldn’t impact his making the latter’s final, but it may affect his lane placement. Swimming alongside Phelps could make all the difference in Conger’s final time and his Olympic berth result.
Right behind Conger in our prediction is tough swimmer and short course American Record Holder Tom Shields. The man from Cal Aquatics made the 200 fly final at last year’s World Championships, but wound up 8th overall in a slower time than his prelims outing. After clocking a 1:56.12 in prelims and 1:55.75 in semi-finals in Kazan, Shields touched in 1:56.17 to finish well-off the podium.
Tom Shields, (photo: Mike Lewis)
But that 1:55.75 was indeed a stellar swim when looking at his 200 fly times throughout his career. His fastest time was the 1:55.09 he threw down at the 2014 Summer Nationals meet, so the idea he’d go beneath 1:55 is not a far reach. Whether he can maximize his lethal weapon that is his almost-unmatched underwaters to hold on and beat out Conger down the stretch will be the primary question in Omaha.
SwimMAC Elite veteran Tyler Clary will also be in the mix and one to watch, as he earned the Olympic berth behind Phelps in 2012 and wound up 5th in London (1:55.06). Clary has since clocked a 1:55.42 at 2014 Pan Pacific Championships, as well as a 1:55.86 as recent as in prelims of last year’s World Championships. If Clary swims the 400 IM in Omaha, he’ll have that event’s prelims and finals under his belt before taking on this event 2 days later, which may or may not impact the 27-year-old’s performance in this fly race. However, a stacked schedule is nothing new for this seasoned racer and defending 2012 Olympic gold medalist in the 200 backstroke.
On the younger end of the spectrum, Phelps’ protegé at the North Baltimore Aquatic Club, Chase Kalisz, may pop an unexpected swim at this year’s Trials. His best time sits at the 1:56.50 he clocked at 2014’s Summer Nationals and his more recent time of 1:57.19 rendered him the silver medalist at Federal Way last December. If he can stick alongside his training partner Phelps, Kalisz may just do enough to keep it a close race to the wall among the other non-GOAT competitors.
Cal swimmer Andrew Seliskar had a relatively quiet freshman year after dominating the age group scene during his latter teen years. Although he soared to a personal best time of 1:55.92 at the 2014 Junior Pan Pacific Championships, he was only sub-1:56 one other occasion, matching that same time at the Arena Pro Swim in Austin. He’d need to bring some major heat to contend with the top 3.
Pace Clark (photo: Mike Lewis)
21-year-old Pace Clark is another final contender who may be just shy of finishing in the top 3 for this year. He scored a time of 1:56.97 at the Longhorn Elite Invite earlier this month, a mark which sits just two tenths off his best. Although that bodes well in the final push before Omaha, he would need to have the swim of his life to make one of the Olympic roster spots.
The same holds true for our pick for the 8th place finisher, Athens Bulldogs’ Gunnar Bentz. A standout swimmer for the University of Georgia, Bentz has proven his has solid talent in the big boy pool as well, knocking down a best time in this 200 fly event at last month’s Arena Pro Swim in Indianapolis. His mark of 1:57.70 is well off the leaders’ sub-1:55 outings, but enough to potentially sneak into Omaha’s final and get closer to establishing himself as a candidate to take the torch from a retiring post-Rio Phelps.
Top 8 Picks
| Predicted Final Placement at U.S. Trials |
Athlete | Current Club | Best Time Since London 2012 |
Predicted Final Time at 2016 U.S. Trials |
| 1. | Michael Phelps | NBAC | 1:52.94 | 1:52.5 |
| 2. | Jack Conger | NCAP | 1:54.54 | 1:54.1 |
| 3. | Tom Shields | Cal Aquatics | 1:55.09 | 1:54.6 |
| 4. | Tyler Clary | SwimMAC Elite | 1:55.42 | 1:56.3 |
| 5. | Chase Kalisz | NBAC | 1:56.50 | 1:56.5 |
| 6. | Andrew Seliskar | NCAP | 1:55.92 | 1:56.7 |
| 7. | Pace Clark | Athens Bulldogs | 1:56.84 | 1:56.9 |
| 8. | Gunnar Bentz | Athens Bulldogs | 1:57.70 | 1:57.5 |
Rowdy Gaines: “There’s the breasts……troke of O’Connor”. I’m quite convinced Dan and Rowdy hit up those Rio bars before commentary
I don’t understand how people think that conger will have these massive time drops and beat everyone. At least I don’t think he will make the team in the 100 fly, Phelps will win and Shields will place 2nd in a new PB sub 51 sec. The 200 is the big question. Phelps will win, and Shields’ 1.58 at Santa Clara tells me that he is ready to go fast at trials. He has huge time drops at taper meets compared to in-season meets. He will make it in a 1.54 low, Conger’s chances is in the relays.
Yes, I really like Tom Shields.
I think michael phelps’ best days are over. Honestly I do not think he will make the team. If he does, he will certainly lose to le clos and cseh. But we will see….
Phelps 1:52.94 200 fly 2015 Cseh 1:53.48 2015 Le Clos 1:53.68
Phelps 100 fly 50.45 (bad start and long turn) Le Clos 50.56 Cseh 50.87
Phelps 200 IM 1:54.75 ( mainly butterfly and breastroke training. Not much back or free, which he probably did now) Lochte 1:55.81
Hagino also went 1:55.07 this year.
Bob Bowan said that Phelps is in the best shape of his life. So dere. Lol, but really, not making the team is ridiculous. And certainly lose to Cseh and LE Clown? Umm, certainly? Nothing is certainn in this circumstance.
Le Clown? I am sorry, but that is just too funny. I know I know…..not nice…..but still funny.
I remember someone mentioning that after Phelps’s 50.45 last year.
Conger has all the talent in the world, but he’s had a history of coming up small in the big events. Can he overcome the nerves and break through?
1:54.4 is good, and I expect him to break 1:54 at trials, and maybe 51 in the 100 fly. Shields is 24, and his best time is 51.0, not saying he couldn’t improve, 50.7 would be great. But it kind of looks he reached his peak, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t or did break 51. I hope he does though.
Tom Shields will make it in the 200 fly! (and the 100).
I wonder if Conger could take Shields in the 100 fly too actually.
Are you kidding me, shields will burn up Omaha
Maybe, he needs a better than Kazan performance though.
I agree with the predictions for the most part, but it’s not really fair to say seliskar had a quiet freshman year. Sure, the top freshman in the nation was townley hass but seliskar a finaled in all 3 of his events at ncaas including the 6th fasted 200 fly performance in history. Not to mention he won 6 pac 12 titles and was swimmer of the meet (cal was missing some of their top swimmers, but seli still had a great meet)
I don’t expect it to happen, but I’d love to see seliskar make the team. He seems like a really nice and humble guy.
I’m calling it 1:52.2 at Trials, 1:49.6 at the Olympics. Holds the Record till his son breaks it at 21. Phelps goes all in with his new found “Dad strength”. After college Boomer does it in honor of his dad. Times magazine title – “Pass it on” the two of them hugging after he wins is the picture on the cover. Calling it.
He wont’t be under 1:52, as everybody knows.
Cseh probably won’t be, but Phelps should go faster.
Laci will be. Definitely.
Why? Why would he be faster? You always dodge this question around and just say your opinion without saying why you think it’s so.
Laci is in his best trim. Physically, mentaly, emotionally. Relatively new coach, new team, new type of trainings. He wants it and knows the time that is needed. Slow start but good turns. Best last 8-10 metres in 200m. (you can look at e.g. the 50m final from London, he was nowhere at 43 but on the podium at the wall). He was really nervous about the time in London, not to swim ER with some days of rest. He was overweighted there (i won’t tell the exact kgs). He swam better in 200IM prelims, than the winner in the final. He could scratch it. He is purposive. He knows he is 30 (and doesn’t want to try to swim… Read more »
Since he dropped the ims he has improved a lot in fly. But Phelps is also in the best shape of his life. Better than that 1:52.09 textile in 07. He is mentally and physically a swimming machine. He is the real Thorpedo.
OMGosh, 1:49.6? I’m gonna start holding a grudge against these peeps, because there is a very very very low chance he’d get that, and you’d be let down, so. I’d be happy with 1:51.4 with the Gold, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he went faster. And really, 1:50.65 is the best time I think possible, but I will shut up now.
I think the winning time will begin with 1.51. Let’s see the Trials and e.g Rome.
1:51 is likely. I don’t doubt that Phelps will under 1:52 at trials, but I wanna be safe and stay in the 1:52 low zone.
Agree.
Toughest MP call. Should he, will he swim it? If he choose to swim it, it will be the most telling event as far as his fitness is concerned. He went 1’52” in London with goggle problems. Probably could have gone 1’51” without. So that is his goal, if he swims it. Will probably be necessary to win as well.
2008 I think you mean with the goggles. He also had Lzr Racer Leggings. So take em away and probably 1:52 high or 153. Take away the goggles problem and leave the suit, 1:51.09. 1:53.01 at London. He barley trained and had a horrible finished.
I think he will swim it.