Which Super-Suited Records Can Be Broken? Tier 4

by SwimSwam 102

July 09th, 2019 News

We are nearing the ten-year anniversary of the most ridiculous technology-aided amazing display of world record breaking swimming the world has ever seen. Over the course of a week, a total of 43 world records (in 31 unique events) were broken in Rome. How significant is that? There have only been 48 world records set at the Olympics or World Championships in the 10 years since. As we near the end of the first post super-suit decade there are still 15 super suit records on the books, including a few set in Beijing and also a handful that were squeezed in during the fall of 2009 as the super-suit ban approached. Some of these records have had close calls over the years, while others still have an untouchable feel to them a decade or more later.

We are entering a 24-month period that will see three high-level international swim meets; 2019 Worlds in Gwangju, the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and the 2021 Worlds in Fukuoka. These three meets each give us a very high potential for world-record breaking swims, hopefully putting to bed some of these super- suited records that many of us would love to turn the page on.

I have done a deep dive into the data of the past ten years of swimming in the 15 events that still have super-suited records hovering over them. For individual events, I mined the fastest 200 times in each event since the suits were banned. For the relay records I only used the top 50 times for reasons explained later. While using the top 200 times in the last decide does not afford us a chronological view of the progression of times (as a group or individually) towards the respective records, it does allow us to see how the very best swimmers/swims in the past decade have fared in relation to the record, allowing us to gauge both the significance of the current record as well as how the swimming world as a whole may be closing in on it.

Using these top times from the past decade of non-super-suited swims in addition to the existing world record, we can see a very clear picture of just how significant those records are in relation to the historical data since. Statistics were calculated, graphs were made……. and with a little of my own opinions and bias sprinkled in I have ranked the 15 world records in order of how likely they are to being (or not being) broken in the next three years. As a statistical note, standard deviations are typically used to measure how far a value is from the mean value (ex: A SAT test score was 1.2 standard deviations above the mean) but here I use them to compare how far a particular swimmer is from the world record, which is obviously the minimum value. This method is a tad unorthodox, but this allows us to
compare the relative likelihood of records being broken across different distances, genders and disciplines.

As it is, I have broken the existing records into four tiers. Within each tier I feel legitimate arguments can be made for the swapping of event rankings, but I have gone ahead and ranked them 1-15 for the purpose of linearity and (of course) a spirited comments section. I wrote all of these with great care and spent hours doing research. If I have missed your favorite up and coming swimmer with huge potential, or missed a swim in the transfer of data from FINA.org, you have my sincere apologies. I also acknowledge that crazy stuff happens and we may see an out of this world swim by any swimmer at any time, but those are really tough to anticipate and to account for in this format. I am not always trying to estimate if a particular swimmer is capable of breaking the record, but rather just the likelihood of the record being broken at all. By someone. Soon. One final note, this is not meant as a prediction of who will win any particular event in Gwangju or Tokyo, simply a general records discussion. So, without
further ado and from least likely to be broken to most likely, let’s dive in and go for a swim.

Tier 4

Tier 4: Records that will need something Beamonesque to happen for the record to be broken.

Or is that, Biedermannesque?  In 1968 Bob Beamon showed up to the Mexico City Olympics for the long jump, having never jumped longer than 27 feet 4 inches.  He fouled his first two attempts and then uncorked a jump of 29 feet 2.5 inches on his final attempt. It is important to note that altitude was a factor in the record (potentially), not unlike swimmers wearing highly engineered sheets of rubber designed to compress their bodies and smooth out their turbulence!  Not only was it a personal best by almost two feet, it was a world record by nearly 22 inches! The world record prior to that moment was just under 27 feet 5 inches. The world record had never been broken by more than 6 inches until this jump, and Beamon jumped right past 28 feet and into the 29’s. It would take 12 years before any man would jump over 27 feet again, and it was not until 1991 that Beamon’s record was broken. In fact, the current world record still stands from 1991.  When will that record be broken? We will leave that research to the good people over at RunRan.

That brings us to the world record that I believe is least likely to be broken in the next twenty ten two years.

Number 15: The Men’s 200 Free- Paul Biedermann 1:42.00

The data:  The fastest 200 swims since 2009 have a mean of 105.59 seconds (a 1:45.59) with a standard deviation of 0.45 seconds.  The horizontal line in all the boxplots is the median of all swims, the “X” is the mean.

Look at that gap!  Since 2009 Agnel is the only swimmer to even come “close”.  This record has not been challenged since Biedermann left us slack-jawed in 2009 by chopping 0.96 seconds off the record set by Michael Phelps a year earlier.  Phelps’ time was so fast is still would be the record today, not surprisingly. Yet, Biedermann did what was common in Rome that week, he took an already fast time and made it look pedestrian by taking off chunks of time that normally took decades to achieve.   Yannick Agnel (FRA) did give it a run in 2012 with his 1:43.14, but there have only been a handful of men to even crack 1:45 in the intervening years. Of those, Sun Yang is the only one still swimming the event at a high level, but even he has not cracked 1:44.  His personal best of 1:44.39 is an amazing swim, but still an astonishing 5.29 standard deviations slower than the world record! You never say never, but I could see this going another decade or more before it’s broken. Looking for potential? Someone to step up and get it done, and soon?  Other than Sun Yang, there have been a couple of guys that have given us glimpses of greatness, most notably via flying relay starts. America’s Townley Haas gave us a stunning 1:43.78 in Tokyo last summer and a 1:44.14 in Rio, and James Guy went an equally impressive 1:43.80 in Budapest in 2017.  Neither of those times are anywhere close to Biedermann’s 1:42.00 from a flat start or even Agnel’s time in London, and neither man has been under 1:45.00 from a flat start. Yes, I am aware that SwimSwam’s own demi-god Dean Ferris bested Haas’ 200 yard free record back in March (please don’t get your swim converter out, it will only lead to delusional thoughts), but we will have to see if that translates into long course prowess in the next 24 months.  For now, Biedermann’s record appears as secure as the Statue of David in the Galleria dell ‘Accademia

Number 14: Women’s 200 Butterfly- Zige Liu 2:01.81

The data:  The fastest 200 swims since 2009 have a mean of 126.48 seconds (a 2:06.48) with a standard deviation of 0.69 seconds.  

As a note, these boxplots are not made on the same scale, so although this gap looks as significant or even more so than the men’s 200 free, it is not.  In October of 2009, Liu chopped 1.6 seconds off the old record which was set twice in Rome in July, and she had already taken over a second off the previous record in Beijing.  These super-suit years were true madness! The 200 Fly record which had moved just half a second in 25 years (S/O to Mary T!) moved 3.6 seconds in just over a year, set at various times by three different women!  Shipper’s record from Rome would still stand today had it not been for Liu’s 11th hour record but would be much more manageable.  All the outliers shown are by retired swimmers or swims by Mireia Belmonte with 2016 being her most recent effort (4.38 standard deviations away).  Franziska Hentke (4.98 standard deviations away in 2015) and Alys Thomas (5.25 away on 2018) are the only other active swimmers even close. It’s tough to see what the future of this event holds.  2:01.81 is as mind-blowing as 1:42.00 and swimmers 10 years later are still having a hard time even getting in the conversation. Like the Men’s 200 Free, we haven’t had anyone get within 2 seconds of the record, and it may be the better part of the next two quads before anyone does.  

Number 13: Men’s 800 Free- Lin Zhang 7:31.12

The data:  The fastest 200 swims since 2009 have a mean of 467.62 seconds (a 7:47.62) with a standard deviation of 2.85 seconds.  

Yang Sun came “close” in 2011 missing by merely 6.45 seconds or 2.26 standard deviations.  More recently Sun (again) and Detti have been respectably close (2.75 and 3.03 standard deviations away).  Six seconds is still six seconds, and with this event being swum less frequently on the international circuit (outside of WC and now the Olympics) it’s hard to see this one falling anytime soon.  There is plenty of up and coming up talent in the ranks such as Keisuke Yoshida, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk. Honestly, if anyone wants to swap any of the three events in this tier you have legitimate arguments, they are all incredibly tough records.

Tier 3 (check back tomorrow!)

Tier 2 (coming soon)

Tier 1 (coming soon)

About Charge Schmerker

Charge first got his feet wet at the age of 5 with the SugarLand Sharks in suburban Houston.  After swimming competitively through high school, he hung up his goggles to attend and eventually graduate from The University of Texas at Austin.  Although he swims now only swims for the exercise, he is still an avid fan of competitive swimming.

Charge is currently involved in educational consulting and teaches AP Statistics in Plano, Texas.

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Togger

Really interesting, particularly the stats saying M200 free over W200 fly (I get the sense a lot of people’s gut says otherwise, probably thanks to Agnel).

One point, Biedermann took 0.96 off Phelps’ 2008 LZR record, the 1.43.86 came from Melbourne 2007.

Feel the M200 back could also make a campaign for this tier.

IM FAN

I guess Irie’s 1:52.5 and Lochtes 1:52.9 mathematically make that record the highest tier 3 or something.

Sqimgod

Iries 1:52.5 was in 2009 doesn’t count. In 2011 lochte was 53/1:52. Murphy is 51/1:53. Have Murphy do some real endurance work he’d be 1:51 easily

Tim

Imagine if Phelps had worn an Arena X-Glide in his prime.

Lopez

If you had a 100 free LC with the following participants wearing a brand new rubber suit in their absolute prime and not considering any kind of choke factor:

Mcevoy that went 47.0 in 2016
Magnussen that went 47.1 in 2012
Dressel that went 47.1 in 2017
Manaudou that split 47.0 in Rio
Adrian that went 47.5 in London
Chalmers in 2019.
Morozov that went out in 21.9 in BCN

Who do you think would win and with what time, please consider muscle mass:
Manaudou>>Nathan>Magnussen>Dressel>Morozov>Chalmers>Mcevoy.

Sorry about the off topic I’m really bored at work.

Horninco

That is an incredibly tough question because we don’t know how each swimmer would be affected by the suit.

I would lean towards one of the Aussies or Dressel. All three Aussies had incredible back halves, including Chalmers. The suit might give he or Magnussen much more early speed and then they might come off that wall and never really decelerate.

I also like Dressel in that race because he might flip in 21.6 and still come home in 25.0

That would be like a PPV boxing match

JP input is too short

I mean, I feel like I’m going to be stereotypical for comment sections here… but after Dean’s 47.0 split last week I might go with him in your hypothetical.

Though Dressel/Morozov/Manaudou raw speed plus supersuit might still have the upper hand.

Magnussen/Chalmers are exactly the kind of swimmers that were helped less with the supersuits – they are/were back half guys anyway.

Charge

The 47.0 flying starts can’t really be compared to 47.0 flats IMO.

Ytho

Front end swimmers would benefit the most. Suit helps a lot when the piano starts to fall. Look at Bernard, Sullivan, Bousquet, Cielo… All hadhuge speed for the 50, but they only had good 100s in suit.

Observer2537

Chalmers would win I think. He has the least technical stroke out of all of them. He’s just one powerful dude. I’d take out Manaudou, Dressel and Morozov because they are all incredible under water swimmers which is a useless skill while wearing a super suit. Next we gotta eliminate McEvoy and Magnussen because they have the most efficient freestyles causing the least amount of drag so the effect of the super suit would be less than the others. Which makes me go Chalmers because of his back end I don’t see Adrian doing much . Now with all that said the race would probably go something like VM,CD and FM would rip it out in something insane like 21.5.… Read more »

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON

Manaudou and especially Morozov are not incredible underwater swimmers. and 45.2 is way too fast, that’s 2.1 seconds faster than his PR! And finally saying all of these swimmers will crush Cielo’s WR seems improbable

CACrushers

Chalmers is a back end guy with the worst 50 time of that list. Don’t know that I agree

Blackflag82

I think this ends up being a tier 3 because Lochte’s swim is on par with Angel’s in terms of how close it is, but then you’ve also got a significant group of guys all under 1:54 (within 2 seconds of the record), so if feels like there is a bit more of a base for a challenger to move on this record from (though not this year). Especially considering there are a couple active guys who have a legit shot of getting within a second of it within the next couple of years. Where as, as pointed out above, there has only been one flat start swim within 2 seconds of the 200 free in the last decade and… Read more »

JP input is too short

It’ll be interesting to see what Katz goes in the University Games final in a few hours. If he pops a 1:54 it’ll be fun to see him Murphy/Rylov/Katz/Larkin/maybe Kolesnikov (but he seems to be gravitating toward sprints) can push each other down toward that record.

Charge

Good catch, brain fart on my part, I got caught debating discussing how much he dropped the record versus how much it dropped over two years and apparently split the difference. Thanks!

As for Men’s 200 Free vs Women’s 200 Fly, they are interchangeable in my mind but I went with 200 Free just because Angel is no longer competing. All three of these are in the “dang near impossible” category and I debated including a few others in here as well.

Brownish

There are some WR’s that at the momemt seem to be unbeatable. Of coure w200 fly and m200 free are the most insane ones. But there are some more and we can be happy to have the possibility to see another one depends on only one girl or boy. Ledeczky’s, Peaty’s or Katinka’s WRs in LC.

Adam

Not to jump on the Dean bandwagon, but considering his age, experience, training, etc. he really could contend in the 100 free LC the next few years.

Wouldn’t be surprised if he is under 47 by the end of his career. Then again who knows. Never watched him train. Only seen him compete.

Brownish

Of course it can be. But I think this year Worlds final will need 47 to reach. And there are a few more guys in his age to swim it.

Andy Dwyer

I don’t think anyone will ever break that will World Record by Biedermann. To me it looks like the natural limit even for exceptional talent like Phelps or Agnel is 1:43.

AnEn

As far as i know freestyle is the oldest/most popular technique, so there my be less secrets and therefore it is less likely that someone pops up and does to freestyle what Peaty did to breastroke.

The Ready Room

I’m very wary of setting physical caps… Bob Beamon and Roger Bannister are two great examples why.

Sqimgod

It’s doable. They need the technique of agnel+2011 lochte underwaters and some 2015 lochte turns

Ol' Longhorn

And a running start.

ERVINFORTHEWIN

Haaaaaaaa thats the real deal

Anonymous

I agree that it’s doable. As you have said, Angel in his 1:43 low had decent but not the best underwaters. An Agnel swim with Phelps/Lochte turns would contend for breaking 1:42. That would be the perfect swim though and I don’t see it happening soon.

IM FAN

I still think the women’s 200 fly is the most unbreakable. In textile suits no one has come within 2 seconds of it, that’s just stupid… If London 2012 had an 800 I think sun could’ve gotten close to the 800 record, but the splits of that record are insane. Since I’m sure alot of people have never seen this race https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jUqc_IWNL7Y. The last 50, especially the last 25 meters, are inhuman. The dude was already 4 seconds ahead WR pace with 1 lap to go (world record was a 7:38 back then, slightly slower than suns 2011 time) then destroyed it by 2 seconds in the last lap splitting a 25… This is why people hate the polyurethane suits,… Read more »

Charge

Excellent points all around. I watched that race over and over when doing research. Just ridiculous

N P

I would think that the women’s 200 fly record is unbreakable, but then I think of Mary T. She went 2:05.9 38 years ago, at the age of 16, with no goggles, in a suit that’s probably slower than practice suits today. I think if she came along today that she could be 4 seconds faster. But obviously, it’s not that likely we see another Mary T anytime soon, if ever.

And a side note – yes, that 25.99 final 50 from Zhang Lin is crazy. But, in Sun Yang’s 1500 world record, he came home in 25.68, more than 3-tenths faster. So I wouldn’t totally blame that kind of last 50 speed on the suits.

IM FAN

Good point, however Sun had already done the same thing in 2011 with a fast last 50 to break Hackett’s WR (I believe he was behind the pace before then), so it was easy just to see that as an evolution of his 2011 form. Of course I knowing what we do know about secret suspensions and files of his piss and blood just happening to be smashed, it’s suspicious for sure. With Ye Shiwens seeming return to form I think it’s good to bring this up. China does have a history of cheating (1994 world champs anyone, or the suspicious 1993 nats in track when they came out of nowhere to smash the 1500 and 3000 record for women… Read more »

Aquajosh

Mary T retired even then believing she had a 2:04 in her. Can you imagine?

DLSwim

She did have a 2:04 in her. At the time she didn’t know about underwater kicking. Watch videos of her races and you’ll see what I mean.

Charge

It’s unnerving to watch old races and the swimmers dive in (which is funny in itself) and then surface immediately like air filled drums

Ken

I remember when Mary T went 2:05, she remarked that she and her coach had been expecting her to go 2:02. She certainly set no limits for herself – wish she had had the opportunity to be a professional like they do today.

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