Last week we released a hypothetical midseason NCAA invite list, with the defending champion Texas Longhorns leading the way with 22 individual qualifiers, four more than NCAA rules allow. Today, we score out those invite lists to get a look at how those programs stack up at a hypothetical NCAA meet.
Unsurprisingly, the Texas men also lead these rankings with a commanding 208 point lead over runner up Arizona State. The Longhorns have both a significant amount of star power, as well as impressive depth, contributing to their massive midseason lead. They hold the top time in the country in five individual events, from an impressive five different swimmers : 50 free (Cam Auchinachie– 18.80), 100 free (Daniel Kruger– 41.45), 500 free (Luke Hobson– 4:09.72), 100 breast (Caspar Corbeau– 50.79) and 400 IM (Carson Foster– 3:35.61). Texas also owns the nation’s top time in all five relays.
After the entire program redshirted the 2020-21 season, the Arizona State men announced their return in a big way at the NC State Invitational in Greensboro in November, and currently sit in second in projected points with 331, just ahead of last year’s runner-up, Cal. The Sun Devil free relays were especially impressive, as they sit behind only Texas in the 400 and 800 free relay, and sit in third behind Texas and Cal in the 200 free relay. The Sun Devils also got a huge boost from the arrival of superstar freshman and Olympic finalist Leon Marchand from France.
Scored “Psych Sheet Points”
Note: score projections include swimming only and do not account for potential diving points.
A few interesting notes:
- The Georgia Bulldogs sit way down the rankings in 17th with only 60 projected points after a fairly quiet fall invite, in large part due to 500 free NCAA champ Jake Magahey missing the Georgia Tech invite with a non-COVID illness. Nevertheless, at last year’s NCAA Championships, the Bulldogs claimed the fourth place trophy with 268 points. Georgia stands to gain some major ground as all signs still point to World Junior Record holder Matt Sates arriving in Athens in the next couple of weeks, but the Dawgs have some work to do to claim a trophy two years in a row.
- As we mentioned in our projected invite list, USC seems poised to be the breakout team of the year. At last year’s NCAA’s the Trojans finished in 27th and mustered only 21 points, fifth fewest of the scoring teams at the meet. This year seems to be a 180 degree change, as USC projects to be in line for a top 10 finish with 112.5 projected points.
- Two Ivy League programs project to finish in the top 25 at the end of the season, with Harvard currently sitting in 13th with 91 points and Penn sitting in 23rd with 29 points. While his meme-star status seems to have subsided, Dean Farris is still a very dangerous swimmer for the Crimson that could lead to big points both individually and in a myriad of relays. The Penn Quakers only have one qualified swimmer in freshman Matt Fallon, but he is projected to score massive points with the top time in the country in the 200 breast and the 9th fastest time in the 100 breast.
- Virginia, fresh off a 9th place finish last year with 152 points, projects to finish only 26th with 23 points. Interestingly, while the UVA women performed very well at the Tennessee Invite, their male counterparts are only projected to score in one relay, two individual swims from Matt Brownstead and a 16th place score from Justin Grender.
For a more detailed breakdown, visit the SwimSwam Swimulator.