SwimSwam Pulse: 65% Think Lochte Will Enter 400 IM at U.S. Trials

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers to weigh in on whether defending Olympic champ Ryan Lochte will enter the 400 IM at U.S. Olympic Trials:

RESULTS

Will Ryan Lochte swim 400 IM at U.S. Olympic Trials:

  • Yes – 65.0%
  • No – 35.0%

Almost two-thirds of SwimSwam poll voters said they expect Ryan Lochte to attempt a defense of his 400 IM title at the U.S. Olympic Trials in just over a week.

Though Lochte won the event at the London Olympics in 2012, he hasn’t contested the race much in the four years since.

Lochte swam it just twice in 2013, at the Santa Clara Pro Swim Series (then called the Grand Prix series) before suffering his major knee injury that fall.

Since then, he’s swum the event just 6 times in roughly 3 years. His times in 2015 (4:21 and 4:22) didn’t make much of an impression, but his 4:12.66 at the Pro Swim Series in Austin just 5 months ago was a profound indicator that Lochte could still very much contend for an Olympic berth even at age 31.

The worry is that two 400 IMs on opening day of Olympics Trials (and potentially the Olympics) could wear out the aging star for the rest of his slate of events, which could also include any combination of the 200 IM, 200 free, 200 back, 100 free and 100 fly, though the 200 IM seems the only “sure thing” of the bunch.

On the other hand, Lochte is no stranger to crowded event lineups, and was a tough leader for Team USA at last summer’s World Championships.

With entries for Olympic Trials closing next Monday, we should know within a week whether Lochte will take on the 400 IM or not.

 

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Pollwhich asks whether Michael Phelps will swim the 200 free at the U.S. Olympic Trials, and if so, for how many rounds:

Will Michael Phelps swim the 200 free at Olympic Trials?

View Results

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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner

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M L
5 years ago

I think it’d be reasonable for Lochte to swim it in Omaha IF he simulates what he would have to do in Rio: namely, go 4:13 or faster in prelims. My guess would be that if he did that in Omaha, he’d go an exhausting 4:08 or so in finals, finishing second or third to Kalisz and/or Prenot. At that point, he’d know he’s doubtful for gold in Rio (taking Hagino and maybe Seto into account). But it’s as strong a medal shot as he has except for the 200 IM, which is long enough after the 400 that I don’t think he’ll have to worry about tiring himself out for it.

Realistically, Lochte will probably also realize that… Read more »

Billabong
5 years ago

Lochte is a master tactician. He has told all his competitors that he will never swim the event ever again, inducing one or two of them to slack off. He videos himself doing ridiculous cross training with a tractor tyre. No doubt some fools copied him. He always heaps praise on MP The GOAT, knowing that it adds to his legend when he beats him. I love it. It’s almost as good as the Mark Spitz moustache spoof. Keep it up Ryan, the sport still needs you.

Irish Ringer
Reply to  Billabong
5 years ago

He also beat Le Clos so badly in the 2012 London 400 IM that he retired the prince from the 400IM LCM at the ripe old age of 20 🙂

Irish Ringer
5 years ago

He should enter the races where he has a chance to medal. 200/400 I’m and 100/200 free for the relays and that’s what will happen.

Jiggs
5 years ago

[x] swims 400im at trials, side breathes on fly, but gets dq’d for upside down underwaters.

bobo gigi
5 years ago

OMG!
I think Rough Swimmer is Smooth Swimmer!
I will not fall into the trap!

Rough swimmer
Reply to  bobo gigi
5 years ago

Aren’t you paranoid. Relax, I am not smooth swimmer.

Irish Ringer
Reply to  Rough swimmer
5 years ago

Everyone should know rough is the opposite of smooth, but where is SMOOTH SWIMMER? He was rolling there for a while.

bobo gigi
5 years ago

I think that 65% want to see him swim the 400 IM at trials. That’s different. 🙂

Rough swimmer
Reply to  bobo gigi
5 years ago

How do you know we want to see him swim 400 IM. I definitely do not want to see him swim 400 IM and yet I voted yes. Read the poll question.
I think 65% predict he will swim the 400 IM.

bobo gigi
Reply to  Rough swimmer
5 years ago

First it’s not a poll. A poll is not a game on internet with people who click if they want. By the way I wonder if people can vote as much as they want.
Then the day people answer really the question we ask them has not arrived.
I don’t say everybody works like that. Fortunately. But it happens very often. The example of referendums is the best example.
About Lochte, I was kidding. Maybe most of his fans would like to see him at least try. Just to see.
That’s one of the many mysteries of these trials.

Deraj
Reply to  bobo gigi
5 years ago

A definition for you Bobo 🙂
Poll *noun* :
An activity in which several or many people are asked a question or series of questions in order to get information about what most people think about something.

THEO
Reply to  Deraj
5 years ago

I think that what Bobo was trying to say was that there is a selection bias in such a poll: those who bothered to respond are probably those with strong feelings one way or another. Why do you think user reviews for any product/entertainment are always one or five stars, but never three?

That dynamic could create some sort of skewed result if, for example, the people answering tended to be Lochte fans, and therefore biased in thinking that he is capable of winning that event.

(Not bashing SwimSwam for setting it up this way — ideal sampling methods might not even be feasible here, and I still think these polls are fun and interesting.)

Uberfan
5 years ago

I don’t see why people assume he would yes he has the ability to make the team in it but 4:12 can’t beat Kalisz who looks to be Americas only hope in medalling in this event. If he chooses to swim it I wish him the best im sure he’ll do great maybe even make the team in it. But how will this affect his other events. I doubt he’ll swim 200 back

ice age swimmer
Reply to  Uberfan
5 years ago

I actually think he CAN beat Kalisz- Kalisz’s back is weak at this level. Usually he catches up a lot on BR, but Ryan recently went a 1:02 100BR. To me, Ryan’s 400IM is just about the most beautiful thing to see in our sport. Go Ryan!!!! Trials will tell him a lot about how his body recovers from the 400 IM on the first day.

Erikthedude
5 years ago

Wait, doesn’t this seem a little bit suspicious? #illuminaticonfirmed

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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