SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers to predict the 2019 NCAA finish for the Tennessee women:
RESULTS
Question: Where will the Tennessee women finish at 2019 NCAAs?
- Top 3 – 7.4%
- 4th-6th – 44.0%
- 7th-10th – 36.0%
- Lower than 10th – 12.6%
44% of voters predicted the Tennessee women to finish between 4th and 6th, and 7.5% more predicted a top 3 finish for the Volunteers at 2019 NCAAs.
Tennessee is one of the hardest teams to predict pre-season. They were 7th last year in a breakout season, led by a young cast that doesn’t lose many key pieces from their 2018 NCAA team. (You can read more in our College Swimming Preview of the Tennessee women here). That 7th-place finish also did not include any medley relay points – Tennessee’s 400 medley was DQ’d and its 200 medley missed finals when Erika Brown accidentally swam fly instead of free in prelims. Both were widely expected to score if not A final at NCAAs.
On the other hand, a top-6 finish is a lofty expectation. Rescoring the 2018 NCAA meet with no seniors shows Stanford (247 points) and Cal (240) far ahead of the field, though that scoring was done before the news that Simone Manuel and Kathleen Baker would be finishing their NCAA careers. Tennessee (123.5 points) was still behind Texas (159.5), Michigan (147) and Louisville (141.5). That’s without factoring in freshman classes, where Tennessee has a solid group but didn’t rank inside our top 12 recruiting classes nationwide. Two of the teams directly behind them (Indiana, 116 points; Texas A&M 111 points) did make that list: Indiana was 6th and A&M 7th.
The vast majority of voters had Tennessee between 4th and 10th, which is the most likely range this year with similar performances. 12.6% had them ranked outside the top 10, and 7.4% ranked them inside the top 3.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters which 2018 NCAA champ is more likely to repeat in 2019:
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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner
Maybe if Erika brown doesn’t mess up what stroke she is doing again 😂
Tomorrow’s headline: 49% PREDICTING 7TH-205TH FINISH FOR TENNESSEE WOMEN
I wonder if there is a selection bias here, i.e. supporters of the Tennessee program are more likely to care enough to vote, thus skewing the results toward a more optimistic outcome.
As an aside, I wonder what part of my comment above triggered the “awaiting moderation” message.
I’m a big LVSD fan, and while they always light it up at SECs, they tend to be a bit inconsistent at NCAAs. Hoping for something different this year.
Lady Vol Girl Power will rock and they will finish 4th.