Men’s 400 Free
- 2012 Olympic Champion: Sun Yang (CHN), 3:40.14
- 2015 World Champion: Sun Yang (CHN), 3:42.58
- World Record (2009): Paul Biedermann (GER), 3:40.07
Mack Horton (Photo: Swimming Australia)
The men’s 400 freestyle at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games looks like it’ll bring a lot more competition than the field in 2012, with 8 men already under 3:45 this year. Headlining those men is Australia’s up and comer Mack Horton, who’s been rising in the ranks since he won 5 gold medals at the Junior World Championships in 2013. Horton is the fastest swimmer in the world this year after blasting a 3:41.65, making him the 2nd fastest Australian of all time behind only Ian Thorpe. Last summer, Horton swam times at Australian Championships that would’ve won a silver at worlds, but was unable to replicate his performance at the big meet. He wound up 11th in the 400 free, failing to make the final.
Horton’s performances in Kazan were at least partially hindered by a parasitic bug that caused him to lose over 10 pounds within 2 days of his arrival. Given the drastic impact the bug had on his health at Worlds, it’s likely we’ll see Horton perform better on the big stage this time around. He’s got a great shot at a medal, and is looking like a big contender for gold as we head into the Games.
Also qualifying for Rio and placing 2nd behind Horton was David McKeon, who swam a 3:45.09 at Australian Olympic Trials. McKeon represented Australia in this event in London, placing 14th with a 3:48. He’s represented Australia in this event at both Worlds meets since then, but didn’t advance to the final in either. This summer in Rio, McKeon could make his big break and get into the championship final, especially when considering his personal best 3:43.71 from 2013 Australian Nationals, but his recent trend on the global stage hasn’t been good.
Park Tae Hwan (Photo: Scott Davis)
Park Tae Hwan, one of the top 400 freestylers in the world since 2012, will officially be in Rio despite controversy surrounding a positive doping test in 2014. Park served an 18-month ban after positively testing for banned testosterone, and was initially ruled out of the Rio Olympics due to an additional 3-year suspension placed on him by the KOC. Park appealed to the Court Arbitration for Sport (CAS), and the CAS ruled in his favor, establishing his elligibility for the Games. The KOC then overturned its own ban on Park, allowing the Olympic champion to represent South Korea in Rio.
It’s clear that Park has obstacles to overcome, as he was out of international competition until June of this year and was far from his best with a 3:44.26 at Korean Olympic Trials. However, Park has his Olympic history on his side, and his time indicated he’s in good enough shape to at least challenge for a spot in the final. Park heads to Rio as the defending silver medalist, and owns the 400 free gold medal from 2008. His career best is a 3:41.53 from 2010, and he’ll need to get back down to that time if he wants a shot at gold. In this Olympic cycle, his fastest swim has been a 3:43.15 from 2014 Pan Pacs.
Sun Yang (photo: Mike Lewis)
Park isn’t the only top contender in this event who has dealt with doping controversy. Defending Olympic champion Sun Yang, a distance star out of China, has dealt with his own issues. Following a positive doping test in 2014, he was deemed unwelcome to train in Australia and ties were severed with his coach, Dennis Cotterell. Sun has won this race at the last 2 World Championships, and will look to earn back-to-back Olympic titles with his swim in Rio.
This season, Sun swam to a 3:43.55 at the Arena Pro Swim in Santa Clara, which currently ranks him 2nd in the world. Interestingly, he swam that time in prelims before scratching out of finals, so it’s possible he hasn’t shown all his cards yet. His winning time in London was a 3:40.14, but his fastest since has been a 3:41.59.
The Americans will bring back Conor Dwyer in this event after he placed 5th in 2012. Dwyer had been slightly off his best times since he moved from his training base at Florida and eventually wound up with Trojan Swim Club in California. At 2016 Olympic Trials, however, he had a break through swim to qualify for his 2nd Olympic Games with a personal best 3:44.66. That swim put Dwyer 7th in the World Rankings, and he’ll look to make another finals appearance this summer.
Connor Jaeger (Photo: Peter Sukenik)
Winning the event ahead of Dwyer at trials was Connor Jaeger, who placed 4th in this event at last summer’s World Championships. He dropped a second from his best time to take the event in 3:43.79, a time that ranks him 3rd in the World and puts him in the Olympic medal conversation. Jaeger is coming off a very strong year in 2015 that saw him set a new American Record in the 1500. If he can keep his momentum going through Rio, he’ll be there to challenge for a podium finish.
Germany’s Florian Vogel and Italy’s Gabriele Detti have broken into the world’s top 8 this year with their performances at their respective national meets. Vogel sits 8th on the list, qualifying for Rio with a 3:44.89, while Detti is a few slots up at 5th in 3:43.97. Detti will be swimming in his 2nd Olympics, as he’s already represented Italy with his swim in the 1500 at the 2012 Games.
James Guy (Photo: Tim Binning)
Great Britain’s James Guy was the silver medalist in this event in Kazan. Guy enters the meet with his 3:43.84 from British Olympic Trials, which has him ranked 4th in the world. He was slightly faster than that with a 3:43.75 at Worlds, where he set a new British Record and became the first British male to win an individual World Championship title in the 200 free.
A two-time Olympic medalist, Canada’s Ryan Cochrane is more well-known for his performances in the 1500 free, but he’s shown off his 400 free speed over the past couple of years. He clocked a lifetime best 3:43.46 at the 2014 Commonwealth Games and swam his way to a bronze medal at Worlds last summer. This season, he’s been off that with his 3:48.54 at Canadian Olympic Trials, but could end up racing in the final if he can bring his time back down to the low 3:40s.
Men’s 400 Free Top 8 Predictions:
| Place | Swimmer | Country | Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) | Predicted Time |
| 1 | Sun Yang | CHN | 3:41.59 | 3:41.2 |
| 2 | Mack Horton | AUS | 3:41.65 | 3:41.9 |
| 3 | James Guy | GBR | 3:43.75 | 3:43.2 |
| 4 | Connor Jaeger | USA | 3:43.79 | 3:43.5 |
| 5 | Park Tae Hwan | KOR | 3:43.15 | 3:44.0 |
| 6 | Conor Dwyer | USA | 3:44.66 | 3:44.3 |
| 7 | Gabriele Detti | ITA | 3:43.97 | 3:44.7 |
| 8 | Ryan Cochrane | CAN | 3:43.46 | 3:45.3 |
Horton 3:39.99
Yang Dq’d drugs
Guy 3:42.99
Cochran 3:42.5
Meant Cochran 3:43.5!
Yang 3:40.3
Horton 3:41.9
Park 3:42.7
This looks pretty good
1. Yang
2. Horton
3. Detti
Pains me to say, but I think Guy will lead to 300 then start to suffer with the added speed work this year – He’ll be very strong in the 200.
Why is Detti supossed to swim a second slower than two months ago?
Because he’s not American? !
Horton will improve on his Aussie Trial time for sure. He is technically superior to Sun these days (exaggerated lope) which will be shown as Sun will struggle maintaining his fast gear for the distance. Sun will come home fast, but will need to come from behind. Horton has added to his legs and strength work (eg boxing). He takes it in a mid 40 with Sun a low 41. Sun is setting himself for the 200 I reckon…Park and Guy to fight for the other medal.
…. Are you kidding sun yang (while probably doping) is on form and looks better than ever especially for the 200/400 . He’s on another level than these guys Horton is not “superior”.
I really want that wretched biedermann record to be gone
I want Thorpe to come back and take it
Everyone is underrating Cochrane. He’s repeatedly stated he’s hoping to drop down and focus on the 400 free rather than the 1500, and his 3:43 was from 2 years ago. He probably swam trials with very very little rest. I’m saying he’ll smash out a surprise podium performance.
That said, it would be nice to see anyone defeat Sun and Park.
He certainly deserves respect; I’m not sure he has the top end speed of some others but if this ends up not as fast an event as some expect; he can certainly final and your scenario could play out if certain favourites engage in match racing against themselves.
Not exactly a front-line contender but not someone to disrespect either
I think both Sun Yang and Mack Horton will go faster. Jaeger for bronze?