Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Event Predictions – Men’s Edition

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

• June 15-23, 2024
• Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
• LCM (50 Meters)
• Meet Central
• Live Results
• SwimSwam Preview Index

The U.S. Olympic Trials can be wildly unpredictable, and that proved to be the case last week as an unforgettable nine days of racing in Indianapolis saw its fair share of surprises, though a lot of the big stars made good on their status as pre-race favorites.

SwimSwam’s official picks tied for 34th out of nearly 1000 entries in the Pick ’em Contest, a solid mark, though that only accounts for the top four picks in each event.

Taking a bird’s eye view of all of our picks, let’s review how the SwimSwam picks did accounting for the eight finalists in each event.

• See all of our picks at the SwimSwam Preview Index here.

For the men, we correctly predicted seven of the eight finalists in two events, the 400 free and 800 free, which is an improvement compared to the women where we only went 7/8 in the 200 free.

We also picked 6/8 finalists in the 100 and 200 free, 200 back, 100 and 200 breast, and 200 fly, and the rest of the events were 5/8.

A total of 10 of our finalist selections ended up scratching from their respective events, either before the prelims or after one of the early rounds. That included two scratches from Daniel Diehl and three of our picks opting out of the 400 IM:

• Drew Kibler – 400 free
• Michael Brinegar – 1500 free*
• Daniel Diehl – 100 back, 200 IM
• Destin Lasco – 200 back
• Shaine Casas – 100 fly
• Carson Foster – 200 fly
• Bobby Finke – 400 IM
• Baylor Nelson – 400 IM
• Mason Laur – 400 IM

*Brinegar dropped the 1500 free after he received a four-year doping suspension that same day.

Below, find the swimmers ordered 1-8 based on how we predicted them to finish, with their final placing in the far right column. At the bottom of each event, “Moving In” refers to the swimmers who made the final that we didn’t predict, while the bottom right corner gives a tally of the correct finalists we picked out of eight.

50 Freestyle

100 Freestyle

200 Freestyle

400 Freestyle

800 Freestyle

1500 Freestyle

100 Backstroke

200 Backstroke

100 Breaststroke

200 Breaststroke

100 Butterfly

200 Butterfly

200 IM

*Julian scratched the semis after qualifying 15th out of the prelims.

400 IM

TAKEAWAYS:

• Of the 29 swimmers who made finals in events we didn’t predict, three did so in multiple events: Chris Guiliano (50/200 free), Adam Chaney (50 free, 100 back) and Will Modglin (100 back, 200 IM).
• Guiliano was also picked to place 3rd in the 100 free—he ended up winning that event, and was the runner-up in the two events he wasn’t picked to even final. The Notre Dame standout became the first male swimmer since Matt Biondi in 1988 to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team in the 50, 100 and 200 free.
• In addition to Guiliano in the 50 and 200 free, Hunter Armstrong (100 free for the 400 free relay) and Brooks Curry (200 free for the 800 free relay) also finished in Olympic qualifying spots in events they weren’t predicted to final in.
• In the women’s prediction review, we noted how certain swimmers were clearly fatigued due to taking on daunting schedules over the nine-day meet, resulting in them finishing well off their capabilities in some races after performing well earlier on. This was the case for Aaron Shackell, as he won the 400 free on Day 1, made the 200 free final by way of a swim-off after that, and then ended up 41st in the 200 fly despite being picked to place 7th.
• Just like the women’s side, we correctly predicted all but two of the event winners, only missing out in the 100 free and 400 free. The 100 free saw Guiliano upend Jack Alexy, while Shackell edged out Kieran Smith in the 400 free.
• We only picked the top two finishers (in either order) correctly in six of 14 events. We missed the:
  • 50 free (#2 pick Jack Alexy was 4th, 2nd-place Chris Guiliano wasn’t picked to final)
  • 100 free (#2 pick Caeleb Dressel was 3rd, winner Chris Guiliano was picked 3rd)
  • 200 free (#2 pick Kieran Smith was 4th, 2nd-place Chris Guiliano wasn’t picked to final)
  • 1500 free (#2 pick Charlie Clark was 6th, 2nd-place David Johnston was picked 7th)
  • 200 back (#2 pick Jack Aikins was 3rd, 2nd-place Keaton Jones was picked 3rd)
  • 100 breast (#2 pick Michael Andrew was 8th, 2nd-place Charlie Swanson was picked 8th)
  • 200 breast (#2 pick Jake Foster was 7th, 2nd-place Josh Matheny was picked 4th)
  • 200 fly (#2 pick Carson Foster scratched, 2nd-place Luca Urlando was picked 4th)
• Paris Olympians we didn’t pick to make the team: Brooks Curry, Blake Pieroni, David Johnston, Keaton Jones, Charlie Swanson, Josh Matheny and Luca Urlando.