Reviewing SwimSwam’s 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Event Predictions – Men’s Edition


The U.S. Olympic Trials can be wildly unpredictable, and that proved to be the case last week as an unforgettable nine days of racing in Indianapolis saw its fair share of surprises, though a lot of the big stars made good on their status as pre-race favorites.

SwimSwam’s official picks tied for 34th out of nearly 1000 entries in the Pick ’em Contest, a solid mark, though that only accounts for the top four picks in each event.

Taking a bird’s eye view of all of our picks, let’s review how the SwimSwam picks did accounting for the eight finalists in each event.

For the men, we correctly predicted seven of the eight finalists in two events, the 400 free and 800 free, which is an improvement compared to the women where we only went 7/8 in the 200 free.

We also picked 6/8 finalists in the 100 and 200 free, 200 back, 100 and 200 breast, and 200 fly, and the rest of the events were 5/8.

A total of 10 of our finalist selections ended up scratching from their respective events, either before the prelims or after one of the early rounds. That included two scratches from Daniel Diehl and three of our picks opting out of the 400 IM:

*Brinegar dropped the 1500 free after he received a four-year doping suspension that same day.

Below, find the swimmers ordered 1-8 based on how we predicted them to finish, with their final placing in the far right column. At the bottom of each event, “Moving In” refers to the swimmers who made the final that we didn’t predict, while the bottom right corner gives a tally of the correct finalists we picked out of eight.

50 Freestyle

1 Caeleb Dressel 1st
2 Jack Alexy 4th
3 Michael Andrew 5th
4 Ryan Held 6th
5 Matt King 3rd
6 Jonny Kulow 9th
7 David Curtiss 16th
8 Brooks Curry 20th
Moving In: Chris Guiliano (2nd), Quintin McCarty (7th), Adam Chaney (8th) 5/8

100 Freestyle

1 Jack Alexy 2nd
2 Caeleb Dressel 3rd
3 Chris Guiliano 1st
4 Ryan Held 5th
5 Matt King 6th
6 Jonny Kulow 10th
7 Brooks Curry 12th
8 Macguire McDuff 8th
Moving In: Hunter Armstrong (4th), Destin Lasco (7th) 6/8

200 Freestyle

1 Luke Hobson 1st
2 Kieran Smith 4th
3 Drew Kibler 3rd
4 Aaron Shackell 8th
5 Jake Mitchell 7th
6 Jake Magahey 12th
7 Gabriel Jett 18th
8 Blake Pieroni 6th
Moving In: Chris Guiliano (2nd), Brooks Curry (5th) 6/8

400 Freestyle

1 Kieran Smith 2nd
2 Aaron Shackell 1st
3 David Johnston 3rd
4 Jake Mitchell 8th
5 Jake Magahey 6th
6 Drew Kibler scratch
7 Bobby Finke 4th
8 Luke Whitlock 5th
Moving In:
Daniel Matheson (7th)

800 Freestyle

1 Bobby Finke 1st
2 Luke Whitlock 2nd
3 David Johnston 4th
4 Charlie Clark 6th
5 Ross Dant 5th
6 Will Gallant 7th
7 Daniel Matheson 3rd
8 Michael Brinegar 12th/suspension
Moving In: Sean Green (8th) 7/8

1500 Freestyle

1 Bobby Finke 1st
2 Charlie Clark 6th
3 Daniel Matheson 4th
4 Michael Brinegar
5 Will Gallant 13th
6 Luke Whitlock 3rd
7 David Johnston 2nd
8 Levi Sandidge 9th
Moving In: Luke Ellis (5th), William Mulgrew (7th), Carson Hick (8th) 5/8

100 Backstroke

1 Ryan Murphy 1st
2 Hunter Armstrong 2nd
3 Justin Ress 5th
4 Destin Lasco 11th
5 Shaine Casas 9th
6 Daniel Diehl scratch
7 Jack Aikins 3rd
8 Jack Wilkening 7th
Moving In: Adam Chaney (4th), Will Modglin (6th), Tommy Janton (8th) 5/8

200 Backstroke

1 Ryan Murphy 1st
2 Jack Aikins 3rd
3 Keaton Jones 2nd
4 Destin Lasco scratch
5 Daniel Diehl 6th
6 Hunter Tapp 8th
7 Tommy Janton 4th
8 Ian Grum 11th
Moving In: Jay Litherland (5th), Caleb Maldari (7th) 6/8

100 Breaststroke

1 Nic Fink 1st
2 Michael Andrew 8th
3 Jake Foster 6th
4 Josh Matheny 3rd
5 Noah Nichols 5th
6 Matt Fallon 13th
7 Cody Miller 15th
8 Charlie Swanson 2nd
Moving In: Liam Bell (4th), Luke Rodarte (7th) 6/8

200 Breaststroke

1 Matt Fallon 1st
2 Jake Foster 7th
3 Nic Fink 6th
4 Josh Matheny 2nd
5 Daniel Roy 5th
6 Will Licon 4th
7 Charlie Swanson 10th
8 Cody Miller 17th
Moving In: AJ Pouch (3rd), Josh Bey (8th) 6/8

100 Butterfly

1 Caeleb Dressel 1st
2 Thomas Heilman 2nd
3 Dare Rose 3rd
4 Shaine Casas scratch
5 Aiden Hayes 5th
6 Gabriel Jett 15th
7 Luke Miller 7th
8 Trenton Julian 9th
Moving In: Zach Harting (4th), Ryan Murphy (6th), Kaii Winkler (8th) 5/8

200 Butterfly

1 Thomas Heilman 1st
2 Carson Foster scratch
3 Zach Harting 8th
4 Luca Urlando 2nd
5 Trenton Julian 7th
6 Jack Dahlgren 6th
7 Aaron Shackell 41st
8 Mason Laur 3rd
Moving In: Dare Rose (4th), Colby Mefford (5th) 6/8

200 IM

1 Carson Foster 1st
2 Shaine Casas 2nd
3 Maximus Williamson 9th
4 Chase Kalisz 4th
5 Kieran Smith 3rd
6 Trenton Julian 15th*
7 Daniel Diehl scratch
8 Arsenio Bustos 6th
Moving In: Owen McDonald (5th), Grant House (7th), Will Modglin (8th) 5/8

*Julian scratched the semis after qualifying 15th out of the prelims.

400 IM

1 Carson Foster 1st
2 Chase Kalisz 2nd
3 Bobby Finke scratch
4 Jay Litherland 3rd
5 Baylor Nelson scratch
6 Gregg Enoch 7th
7 Mason Laur scratch
8 Ian Grum 4th
Moving In: Tommy Bried (5th), Kyle Ponsler (6th), Danny Berlitz (8th) 5/8


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23 days ago

I m surprised the fact swimswam did not predic Armstrong to be on the 100 final..coming to Olympics he was the 2nd fastest behind guliano in the he has 4 sub 48 flat timings in this season , only Guliano has 4 in this season apart from Armstrong..47.83, 47.93, 47.59, not he so solid?

24 days ago

Does anyone know how tall Chris Giuliano actually is? His bios say 6’4 but he looks more like 6’8 like Alexy

James Beam
24 days ago

I was surprised to see Jett and Lasco off a bit….still wondering why Lasco scratched the 2 back….

Reply to  James Beam
24 days ago

I was not surprised. Jett and Lasco always lay eggs in the big pool but Jett adding 7 seconds and Lasco scratching an event he was seeded 2nd in were not on my radar

24 days ago

A bit interesting that the three sprinters who seemed to have the most hype before trial (from what I observed) all kinda had their moment in the limelight:
-Guiliano was decent last year and threw down fast times in season, and then of course made all 3 sprints including winning the 100
-Alexy was incredible last year, and while he’s maybe disappointed with missing the 50, he still made the 100 and went 47.0 which should be close to gold if he can repeat it
-Dressel, of course, was working his way back with comparatively good in season times, and then won the 50/100fly while not seeming bothered by only getting 3rd in the 100.

25 days ago

The prediction for second place in the men’s 100 meter breaststroke still cracks me up. Michael “00” Andrew. LMAO!

I miss the ISL (go dawgs)
25 days ago

Cody miller bro 😭

25 days ago

Apparently, the Notre Dame AD hired a law firm to investigate “culture issues” with the men’s swim and dive program after an internal investigation found concerns. More hazing stuff?

Reply to  chickenlamp
24 days ago

Kind of curious that there’s nothing posted on swimswam about this. Saw it yesterday from Pat Forde who was citing the notre dame AD, so it’s not like it’s unconfirmed

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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