Katie Ledecky’s swim in the 200 free on Friday night at the 2014 Potomac Valley LC Championships broke the Junior World Record, and that might not even be its biggest significance. The swim is also another big step toward a World Record relay over the next three summers.
Two weeks shy of even the beginning of taper season for Ledecky (and the reality is that to get onto the Pan Pacs roster, she doesn’t even need to be tapered for Nationals), she swam a lifetime best of 1:55.79.
Consider what we know her future teammates are capable of. Allison Schmitt, the American Record holder, is back on form, meaning that when she’s tapered, she should be able to flat-start a 1:54.0 on a bad day. Missy Franklin was a 1:54-high last year at Worlds to win gold, so we’ll call that conservatively 1:55.0. If Katie Ledecky is swimming 1:55.7 untapered, that means she’s conservatively good for a 1:55.5 on a flat-start, and the fourth spot is up for grabs (based on last summer, it’s Shannon Vreeland’s to lose, and she’s 1:57.0, conservatively).
So, with no relay starts accounted for, and taking a time for each swimmer that is far less than her flat-start best (with the exception of Ledecky, which is more of a projection), the Americans already aggregate to a 7:41.5: half-a-second faster than China’s 2009 World Record. With at least three shots at the record with the big three, Ledecky, Franklin, and Schmitt, the Americans will surely be “decent” at least one of those three times and get the record. Heck, even in a less-than-best-case scenario, a 7:39.99 seems within reach.
Thanks to Bill Marlin, founder and head coach of the Potomac Marlins, for digging out his camera and shooting this race for us. This swim could be the beginning of the last spark toward swimming history.
and 2nd place to Katie was Leah Smith in 1:58.2 – another impressive time for a pre-nationals swim; Leah is also a contender for that 4th relay spot.
it will be an interesting race between usa and australia at 2015 wc and 2016 og, maybe russia will join in 2016, considering how many very fast freestyle sprinters they are producing right now. france seems to be out, china, gb and italy (together with russia) will probably swim for the bronze medal.
It looks like the blocks are very small and there is no “fin” like at national/international meets. That could be another half of a second. Wow.
Not a lot of people in the stands. 🙁
Come on, Katie is one of the greatest sportswomen ever.
Please, don’t tell me people were at a boring baseball match! 🙄
She’s already half a body lenght ahead of everyone after 15 meters.
Her underwaters and her base speed have improved so much for 2 years.
1.55 untapered!
Wow! She’s really special.
Bobo Gigi had said 3 years ago she would dominate mid-distance and distance freestyle but he didn’t expect she would be so good. 🙂
length
very good predictions BOBO ! Since London i have the feeling she would be hard to beat . Indeed , she is the toughest competitor in mid distance right now . WOWWWWWWW
I’m going out on a limb and making a Bobo-like prediction that Ledecky, Franklin, Schmitt +1 (I’m guessing Runge) set a record at the 2016 Olympics that lasts until 2036! That rubber-wrapped Chinese record is popping like an inner tube! LOL!
I agree.
If Runge improves as well as I expect, she will swim 1.54 in 2016.
And you will have a 1.54 or better split average in the relay!
they will likely beat it this year or next year ! they have been very close to it allready , very close .
Not very much crowd enthusiasm ;-(