There was a lot of talk this last week about how fast the NCAA D1 men’s championships were. Times that would have won in recent years were missing the finals. Records fell in huge numbers and by stunning amounts. However, most of that focuses on the top end of the meet.
This meet was better than is typical not only in time but in performance vs seed time across the entire field. Swimmers over the past 4 years added an average of .24% to their seed times (2422 swims, 1.2% standard deviation). This year they only added an average of .14% to their seed times (585 swims, 1.3% sd). The women at this year’s meet matched their historical time change average almost exactly (.42% this year vs .45% historically).
Of teams with at least 10 swims the best performing team was South Carolina. They dropped an average of .67% on 13 individual swims. Next was Georgia (dropped .46% on 28 swims), Texas (.45% on 41 swims), Arizona (dropped .28% on 12 swims), and California (dropped .22% on 42 swims). The largest average time add from teams with more than 10 swims came from Ohio State who added and average of 1.56% to 12 swims.
The largest drop vs seed in any single event came from Dean Farris of Harvard who dropped 5.0% in the 200 back (seed: 1:45.24, time: 1:39.99). Farris had a volatile meet. He also had the 11th largest time add of the meet. He added 3.4% to his 100 back (seed: 45.38, time: 46.93). The next biggest drops came from Zheng Quah of California (100 fly, 3.7%, seed: 46.77, time: 45.06), Ryan Held of NC State (200 free, 3.4%, seed: 1:34.62, time: 1:31.37), Zachary Apple of Auburn (200 free, 3.3%, seed 1:36.57, time: 1:33.36), and Caeleb Dressel of Florida (100 free, 3.0%, seed: 41.24, time: 40.00).
Average Time Change for Each Team
Negative is faster. Positive is slower. Individual events and relay lead off swims only. No relays.
| Team | Average Time Change | Number of Swims | Standard Deviation |
| Northwestern | -1.13% | 2 | 0.19% |
| South Carolina | -0.67% | 13 | 0.79% |
| Hawaii | -0.59% | 3 | 0.64% |
| GW | -0.47% | 2 | 0.21% |
| Georgia | -0.46% | 28 | 1.54% |
| Texas | -0.45% | 41 | 1.54% |
| Kentucky | -0.37% | 3 | 0.44% |
| Towson | -0.32% | 2 | 1.21% |
| Arizona | -0.28% | 12 | 1.18% |
| California | -0.22% | 42 | 1.31% |
| Texas A&M | -0.21% | 8 | 0.96% |
| Missouri | -0.20% | 12 | 1.68% |
| Yale | -0.14% | 5 | 0.71% |
| Purdue | -0.14% | 2 | 0.07% |
| NC State | -0.12% | 24 | 1.01% |
| Cleveland St | -0.10% | 3 | 1.52% |
| Harvard | 0.01% | 8 | 2.45% |
| Stanford | 0.02% | 33 | 1.15% |
| Auburn | 0.03% | 31 | 1.33% |
| Florida | 0.04% | 39 | 1.06% |
| Cincinnati | 0.05% | 2 | 0.62% |
| Alabama | 0.07% | 15 | 0.82% |
| Tennessee | 0.08% | 17 | 0.78% |
| Brigham Young | 0.16% | 2 | 0.88% |
| Penn | 0.17% | 3 | 0.71% |
| Cornell | 0.24% | 2 | 0.17% |
| U.S. Navy | 0.26% | 2 | 0.01% |
| Virginia Tech | 0.27% | 11 | 0.58% |
| Southern Cali | 0.27% | 25 | 2.26% |
| Wisconsin | 0.30% | 12 | 0.87% |
| Missouri St. (M) | 0.33% | 4 | 0.54% |
| Louisville | 0.35% | 23 | 0.89% |
| Notre Dame | 0.36% | 9 | 0.77% |
| Denver | 0.39% | 8 | 0.99% |
| LSU | 0.39% | 5 | 0.25% |
| Minnesota | 0.46% | 11 | 0.77% |
| Michigan | 0.59% | 21 | 1.23% |
| Utah | 0.67% | 8 | 1.61% |
| Duke | 0.67% | 2 | 0.26% |
| Indiana | 0.80% | 20 | 1.47% |
| Virginia | 0.81% | 12 | 1.48% |
| UNC | 0.86% | 12 | 0.84% |
| Arizona St | 0.87% | 9 | 0.65% |
| Florida St | 0.91% | 10 | 0.90% |
| Penn St | 1.10% | 3 | 0.40% |
| SMU | 1.16% | 2 | 1.40% |
| Georgia Tech | 1.17% | 7 | 2.05% |
| Pacific | 1.24% | 2 | 0.33% |
| Ohio St | 1.56% | 11 | 1.08% |
| Loyola (MD) | 1.63% | 2 | 1.40% |
Biggest Drop and Add for Each Team
| Biggest Time Drop | Biggest Time Add | |||||||||
| Name | Event | Time Change | Seed | Final Time | Name | Event | Time Change | Seed | Final Time | |
| Alabama | Oslin, Connor | 200 Backstroke | -1.12% | 1:40.35 | 1:39.23 | Reid, Christopher | 200 Backstroke | 1.65% | 1:39.64 | 1:41.28 |
| Arizona | Wieser, Christopher | 1650 Freestyle | -2.78% | 15:09.74 | 14:44.45 | Wieser, Christopher | 500 Freestyle | 1.85% | 4:16.07 | 4:20.80 |
| Arizona St | Porter, Andrew | 100 Butterfly | -0.35% | 45.75 | 45.59 | Lorenz, Christian | 200 Breastroke | 1.67% | 1:53.87 | 1:55.77 |
| Auburn | Apple, Zachary | 200 Freestyle | -3.32% | 1:36.57 | 1:33.36 | Martinez, Luis | 200 Butterfly | 2.87% | 1:43.56 | 1:46.53 |
| Brigham Young | Sorenson, Payton | 100 Freestyle | -0.46% | 43.06 | 42.86 | Sorenson, Payton | 50 Freestyle | 0.78% | 19.22 | 19.37 |
| California | Quah, Zheng | 100 Butterfly | -3.66% | 46.77 | 45.06 | Norman, Nick | 1650 Freestyle | 3.63% | 14:51.89 | 15:24.29 |
| Cincinnati | Bready, Chris | 500 Freestyle | -0.39% | 4:21.38 | 4:20.37 | Bready, Chris | 1650 Freestyle | 0.49% | 14:54.17 | 14:58.57 |
| Cleveland St | Sikatzki, Philipp | 50 Freestyle | -1.68% | 20.19 | 19.85 | Sikatzki, Philipp | 100 Freestyle | 1.35% | 42.94 | 43.52 |
| Cornell | Evdokimov, Alex | 100 Breastroke | 0.12% | 52.13 | 52.19 | Evdokimov, Alex | 200 Breastroke | 0.36% | 1:53.72 | 1:54.13 |
| Denver | Loncar, Anton | 200 Backstroke | -1.04% | 1:40.33 | 1:39.29 | Gilbert, Colin | 500 Freestyle | 1.87% | 4:15.73 | 4:20.52 |
| Duke | Payne, Dylan | 100 Breastroke | 0.49% | 52.61 | 52.87 | Kropp, Peter | 100 Breastroke | 0.86% | 51.46 | 51.9 |
| Florida | Dressel, Caeleb | 100 Freestyle | -3.01% | 41.24 | 40 | Rooney, Maxime | 500 Freestyle | 2.15% | 4:18.66 | 4:24.21 |
| Florida St | McCormick, Jason | 100 Freestyle | -0.62% | 43.25 | 42.98 | Coombs, Jason | 200 IM | 2.50% | 1:44.03 | 1:46.63 |
| Georgia | Bentz, Gunnar | 200 Butterfly | -2.90% | 1:43.06 | 1:40.07 | Higgins, Walker | 500 Freestyle | 3.33% | 4:14.43 | 4:22.91 |
| Georgia Tech | Southern, Ben | 200 Butterfly | -0.78% | 1:43.01 | 1:42.21 | Loschi, Moises | 200 Breastroke | 5.02% | 1:53.08 | 1:58.76 |
| GW | Bolognesi, Andrea | 200 Breastroke | -0.62% | 1:57.69 | 1:56.96 | Bolognesi, Andrea | 100 Breastroke | -0.33% | 52.24 | 52.07 |
| Harvard | Farris, Dean | 200 Backstroke | -4.99% | 1:45.24 | 1:39.99 | Farris, Dean | 100 Backstroke | 3.42% | 45.38 | 46.93 |
| Hawaii | Aydin, Metin | 200 IM | -1.28% | 1:44.66 | 1:43.32 | Aydin, Metin | 200 Backstroke | -0.01% | 1:41.03 | 1:41.02 |
| Indiana | Pieroni, Blake | 50 Freestyle | -1.87% | 19.76 | 19.39 | Tavcar, Anze | 50 Freestyle | 4.02% | 19.66 | 20.45 |
| Kentucky | Higgins, Kyle | 500 Freestyle | -0.75% | 4:20.25 | 4:18.29 | Higgins, Kyle | 200 Butterfly | 0.12% | 1:42.66 | 1:42.78 |
| Louisville | Gurevich, Etay | 500 Freestyle | -0.84% | 4:22.28 | 4:20.08 | Jones, Jarrett | 400 IM | 3.12% | 3:43.36 | 3:50.32 |
| Loyola (MD) | Cono, Ben | 100 Breastroke | 0.65% | 52.5 | 52.84 | Cono, Ben | 200 Breastroke | 2.62% | 1:54.83 | 1:57.84 |
| LSU | Markham, Jake | 200 Freestyle | 0.12% | 1:33.94 | 1:34.05 | Luht, Karl | 100 Backstroke | 0.75% | 46.38 | 46.73 |
| Michigan | Auboeck, Felix | 200 Freestyle | -1.34% | 1:33.27 | 1:32.02 | Swanson, Charlie | 200 IM | 3.51% | 1:44.77 | 1:48.45 |
| Minnesota | Turner, Daryl | 100 Backstroke | -0.55% | 47.08 | 46.82 | Becker, Bowen | 50 Freestyle | 1.99% | 19.08 | 19.46 |
| Missouri | Chadwick, Michael | 100 Freestyle | -2.03% | 41.8 | 40.95 | Schwingenschloegl, Fabian | 200 Breastroke | 4.37% | 1:52.61 | 1:57.53 |
| Missouri St. | Osvath, Artur | 200 Breastroke | -0.26% | 1:54.17 | 1:53.87 | Thomas, Antonio | 1650 Freestyle | 0.87% | 14:56.02 | 15:03.83 |
| NC State | Held, Ryan | 200 Freestyle | -3.43% | 1:34.62 | 1:31.37 | Stuart, Hennessey | 200 Backstroke | 1.70% | 1:39.47 | 1:41.16 |
| Northwestern | Wilimovsky, Jordan | 1650 Freestyle | -1.26% | 14:34.51 | 14:23.45 | Wilimovsky, Jordan | 500 Freestyle | -1.00% | 4:15.93 | 4:13.37 |
| Notre Dame | Fujan, Reed | 200 Freestyle | -0.83% | 1:34.52 | 1:33.74 | Plaschka, Justin | 100 Butterfly | 1.72% | 46.05 | 46.84 |
| Ohio St | Seal, Brayden | 1650 Freestyle | -0.01% | 15:00.32 | 15:00.23 | Long, Joey | 500 Freestyle | 3.33% | 4:16.67 | 4:25.22 |
| Pacific | Shahaff, Yahav | 100 Breastroke | 1.01% | 52.62 | 53.15 | Shahaff, Yahav | 50 Freestyle | 1.48% | 19.61 | 19.9 |
| Penn | Andrew, Mark | 400 IM | -0.62% | 3:43.28 | 3:41.89 | Andrew, Mark | 200 IM | 0.73% | 1:44.75 | 1:45.51 |
| Penn St | Ryan, Shane | 100 Freestyle | 0.67% | 41.86 | 42.14 | Ryan, Shane | 50 Freestyle | 1.47% | 19.03 | 19.31 |
| Purdue | Amaltdinov, Marat | 100 Breastroke | -0.19% | 53.19 | 53.09 | Amaltdinov, Marat | 200 Breastroke | -0.09% | 1:52.89 | 1:52.79 |
| SMU | Gomez, Jonathan | 200 Butterfly | 0.17% | 1:41.98 | 1:42.15 | Gomez, Jonathan | 400 IM | 2.15% | 3:43.97 | 3:48.78 |
| South Carolina | Mahmoud, Akaram | 500 Freestyle | -1.81% | 4:14.34 | 4:09.73 | Wich-Glasen, Nils | 100 Breastroke | 0.54% | 51.58 | 51.86 |
| Southern Cali | Condorelli, Santo | 100 Freestyle | -2.36% | 42.78 | 41.77 | Stumph, Steven | 200 IM | 7.01% | 1:44.89 | 1:52.24 |
| Stanford | DeVine, Abrahm | 400 IM | -1.76% | 3:41.64 | 3:37.73 | Dudzinski, Ryan | 200 Backstroke | 3.83% | 1:44.45 | 1:48.45 |
| Tennessee | Coetzee, Ryan | 100 Freestyle | -1.67% | 43.82 | 43.09 | Decoursey, Kyle | 100 Freestyle | 1.28% | 42.07 | 42.61 |
| Texas | Shebat, John | 100 Backstroke | -3.00% | 45.72 | 44.35 | Dunne, Pj | 200 Freestyle | 4.84% | 1:34.13 | 1:38.69 |
| Texas A&M | Castillo Luna, Mauro | 200 Breastroke | -1.61% | 1:53.84 | 1:52.01 | Bonetti, Brock | 200 Backstroke | 1.13% | 1:41.77 | 1:42.92 |
| Towson | Saunderson, Jack | 200 Butterfly | -1.17% | 1:43.05 | 1:41.84 | Saunderson, Jack | 100 Butterfly | 0.53% | 47.01 | 47.26 |
| U.S. Navy | Brutkiewicz, Marlin | 200 Breastroke | 0.25% | 1:54.35 | 1:54.64 | Brutkiewicz, Marlin | 100 Breastroke | 0.26% | 53.32 | 53.46 |
| UNC | Emslie, Craig | 200 Breastroke | -0.41% | 1:55.43 | 1:54.96 | Campbell, Henry | 1650 Freestyle | 2.51% | 14:54.16 | 15:16.56 |
| Utah | Ungur, Paul | 50 Freestyle | -2.38% | 20.16 | 19.68 | Phillips, Austin | 200 Freestyle | 2.41% | 1:34.20 | 1:36.47 |
| Virginia | Quinn, Austin | 200 Freestyle | -2.53% | 1:37.48 | 1:35.01 | Clark, Joseph | 200 Backstroke | 2.63% | 1:41.86 | 1:44.54 |
| Virginia Tech | Owen, Robert | 100 Backstroke | -0.47% | 47.07 | 46.85 | Szabo, Norbert | 200 Butterfly | 1.48% | 1:43.71 | 1:45.24 |
| Wisconsin | Hutchins, Matt | 1650 Freestyle | -1.85% | 14:47.62 | 14:31.19 | Goicoechea, Victor | 500 Freestyle | 1.32% | 4:17.12 | 4:20.52 |
| Yale | Greenberg, Aaron | 100 Freestyle | -1.33% | 43.48 | 42.9 | Greenberg, Aaron | 100 Backstroke | 0.56% | 48.12 | 48.39 |
Largest Time Drops of the Meet
| Name | Team | Time Change | Event | Nationals Time | Seed Time |
| Farris, Dean | Harvard | -4.99% | 200 Backstroke | 1:39.99 | 1:45.24 |
| Quah, Zheng | California | -3.66% | 100 Butterfly | 45.06 | 46.77 |
| Held, Ryan | NC State | -3.43% | 200 Freestyle | 1:31.37 | 1:34.62 |
| Apple, Zachary | Auburn | -3.32% | 200 Freestyle | 1:33.36 | 1:36.57 |
| Dressel, Caeleb | Florida | -3.01% | 100 Freestyle | 40 | 41.24 |
| Shebat, John | Texas | -3.00% | 100 Backstroke | 44.35 | 45.72 |
| Bentz, Gunnar | Georgia | -2.90% | 200 Butterfly | 1:40.07 | 1:43.06 |
| Patching, Joe | Auburn | -2.85% | 200 Freestyle | 1:34.06 | 1:36.82 |
| Bentz, Gunnar | Georgia | -2.82% | 400 IM | 3:36.60 | 3:42.89 |
| Wieser, Christopher | Arizona | -2.78% | 1650 Freestyle | 14:44.45 | 15:09.74 |
| Bentz, Gunnar | Georgia | -2.63% | 200 IM | 1:40.90 | 1:43.63 |
| Thomas, Mike | California | -2.61% | 100 Butterfly | 46.31 | 47.55 |
| Quinn, Austin | Virginia | -2.53% | 200 Freestyle | 1:35.01 | 1:37.48 |
| Shebat, John | Texas | -2.51% | 200 Backstroke | 1:37.24 | 1:39.74 |
| Ungur, Paul | Utah | -2.38% | 50 Freestyle | 19.68 | 20.16 |
| Condorelli, Santo | Southern Cali | -2.36% | 100 Freestyle | 41.77 | 42.78 |
| Patching, Joe | Auburn | -2.19% | 100 Backstroke | 45.47 | 46.49 |
| Roberts, Jonathan | Texas | -2.15% | 200 IM | 1:42.24 | 1:44.49 |
| Switkowski, Jan | Florida | -2.09% | 200 Freestyle | 1:32.44 | 1:34.41 |
| Chadwick, Michael | Missouri | -2.03% | 100 Freestyle | 40.95 | 41.8 |
Largest Time Adds of the Meet
| Name | Team | Time Change | Event | Nationals Time | Seed Time |
| Stumph, Steven | Southern Cali | 7.01% | 200 IM | 1:52.24 | 1:44.89 |
| Altman, Ridge | Southern Cali | 6.33% | 200 IM | 1:54.59 | 1:47.77 |
| Loschi, Moises | Georgia Tech | 5.02% | 200 Breastroke | 1:58.76 | 1:53.08 |
| Dunne, Pj | Texas | 4.84% | 200 Freestyle | 1:38.69 | 1:34.13 |
| Schwingenschloegl, Fabian | Missouri | 4.37% | 200 Breastroke | 1:57.53 | 1:52.61 |
| Tavcar, Anze | Indiana | 4.02% | 50 Freestyle | 20.45 | 19.66 |
| Dudzinski, Ryan | Stanford | 3.83% | 200 Backstroke | 1:48.45 | 1:44.45 |
| Schooling, Joseph | Texas | 3.83% | 200 Butterfly | 1:45.47 | 1:41.58 |
| Norman, Nick | California | 3.63% | 1650 Freestyle | 15:24.29 | 14:51.89 |
| Swanson, Charlie | Michigan | 3.51% | 200 IM | 1:48.45 | 1:44.77 |
| Farris, Dean | Harvard | 3.42% | 100 Backstroke | 46.93 | 45.38 |
| Higgins, Walker | Georgia | 3.33% | 500 Freestyle | 4:22.91 | 4:14.43 |
| Long, Joey | Ohio St | 3.33% | 500 Freestyle | 4:25.22 | 4:16.67 |
| Tavcar, Anze | Indiana | 3.12% | 100 Freestyle | 44 | 42.67 |
| Jones, Jarrett | Louisville | 3.12% | 400 IM | 3:50.32 | 3:43.36 |
| Burns, Aidan | Georgia | 3.09% | 400 IM | 3:48.40 | 3:41.56 |
What happened to Schwingenschloegl in the 200 breast?
he got food poisoning the night before and was up all night throwing up
1) I feel like Steven Stumph sandbagging 200 IMs at NCAAs is a common occurrence – he did a 1:55 in 2015, and 1:52 in both 2016 and 2017… why even swim the event if you know it isn’t there?
2) Zach Apple and John Shebat made NCAAs their breakout party.
3) Gunnar Bentz consistently drops big time in between conference and NCAAs. He’s really a big-game swimmer.
4) South Carolina’s big drops are even more impressive given that the majority of their swims were higher-yardage events – i.e., takes more of a drop to register the same percentage improvement as a shorter event.
Interesting bit about Moises Loschi, in the prelims of the 2 breast, he was leading his heat, but mistakenly stopped at the 150, and hung on the wall for a few seconds before seeing the athletes beside him turn. Results will show a 35 second finishing split, but unfortunately it was a mental error. Felt terribly for the guy, he was on pace to drop time. But lots of us have been there before.
I saw that too but disagree that he was on target to drop time. he went 28+, 28+ but would he have gone those times if he counted correctly and knew he had another 50…doubt it…..
Yeah if you watch the race the reason he surged to the front at the 150 is that he thought it was the end and picked up his stroke rate. He probably would not have maintained the pace on either of the last two fifties had he known.
Glad to see he’s putting his Georgia tech education to work!