NCAA D1 Men Performance vs Seed Time at Nationals

by Andrew Mering 7

March 28th, 2017 College, News

There was a lot of talk this last week about how fast the NCAA D1 men’s championships were. Times that would have won in recent years were missing the finals. Records fell in huge numbers and by stunning amounts. However, most of that focuses on the top end of the meet.

This meet was better than is typical not only in time but in performance vs seed time across the entire field. Swimmers over the past 4 years added an average of .24% to their seed times (2422 swims, 1.2% standard deviation). This year they only added an average of .14% to their seed times (585 swims, 1.3% sd).  The women at this year’s meet matched their historical time change average almost exactly (.42% this year vs .45% historically).

Of teams with at least 10 swims the best performing team was South Carolina. They dropped an average of .67% on 13 individual swims. Next was Georgia (dropped .46% on 28 swims), Texas (.45% on 41 swims), Arizona (dropped .28% on 12 swims), and California (dropped .22% on 42 swims). The largest average time add from teams with more than 10 swims came from Ohio State who added and average of 1.56% to 12 swims.

The largest drop vs seed in any single event came from Dean Farris of Harvard who dropped 5.0% in the 200 back (seed: 1:45.24, time: 1:39.99). Farris had a volatile meet. He also had the 11th largest time add of the meet. He added 3.4% to his 100 back (seed: 45.38, time: 46.93). The next biggest drops came from Zheng Quah of California (100 fly, 3.7%, seed: 46.77, time: 45.06), Ryan Held of NC State (200 free, 3.4%, seed: 1:34.62, time: 1:31.37), Zachary Apple of Auburn (200 free, 3.3%, seed 1:36.57, time: 1:33.36), and Caeleb Dressel of Florida (100 free, 3.0%, seed: 41.24, time: 40.00).

Average Time Change for Each Team

Negative is faster. Positive is slower. Individual events and relay lead off swims only. No relays.

Team Average Time Change Number of Swims Standard Deviation
Northwestern -1.13% 2 0.19%
South Carolina -0.67% 13 0.79%
Hawaii -0.59% 3 0.64%
GW -0.47% 2 0.21%
Georgia -0.46% 28 1.54%
Texas -0.45% 41 1.54%
Kentucky -0.37% 3 0.44%
Towson -0.32% 2 1.21%
Arizona -0.28% 12 1.18%
California -0.22% 42 1.31%
Texas A&M -0.21% 8 0.96%
Missouri -0.20% 12 1.68%
Yale -0.14% 5 0.71%
Purdue -0.14% 2 0.07%
NC State -0.12% 24 1.01%
Cleveland St -0.10% 3 1.52%
Harvard 0.01% 8 2.45%
Stanford 0.02% 33 1.15%
Auburn 0.03% 31 1.33%
Florida 0.04% 39 1.06%
Cincinnati 0.05% 2 0.62%
Alabama 0.07% 15 0.82%
Tennessee 0.08% 17 0.78%
Brigham Young 0.16% 2 0.88%
Penn 0.17% 3 0.71%
Cornell 0.24% 2 0.17%
U.S. Navy 0.26% 2 0.01%
Virginia Tech 0.27% 11 0.58%
Southern Cali 0.27% 25 2.26%
Wisconsin 0.30% 12 0.87%
Missouri St. (M) 0.33% 4 0.54%
Louisville 0.35% 23 0.89%
Notre Dame 0.36% 9 0.77%
Denver 0.39% 8 0.99%
LSU 0.39% 5 0.25%
Minnesota 0.46% 11 0.77%
Michigan 0.59% 21 1.23%
Utah 0.67% 8 1.61%
Duke 0.67% 2 0.26%
Indiana 0.80% 20 1.47%
Virginia 0.81% 12 1.48%
UNC 0.86% 12 0.84%
Arizona St 0.87% 9 0.65%
Florida St 0.91% 10 0.90%
Penn St 1.10% 3 0.40%
SMU 1.16% 2 1.40%
Georgia Tech 1.17% 7 2.05%
Pacific 1.24% 2 0.33%
Ohio St 1.56% 11 1.08%
Loyola (MD) 1.63% 2 1.40%

Biggest Drop and Add for Each Team

Biggest Time Drop Biggest Time Add
Name Event Time Change Seed Final Time Name Event Time Change Seed Final Time
Alabama Oslin, Connor 200 Backstroke -1.12% 1:40.35 1:39.23 Reid, Christopher 200 Backstroke 1.65% 1:39.64 1:41.28
Arizona Wieser, Christopher 1650 Freestyle -2.78% 15:09.74 14:44.45 Wieser, Christopher 500 Freestyle 1.85% 4:16.07 4:20.80
Arizona St Porter, Andrew 100 Butterfly -0.35% 45.75 45.59 Lorenz, Christian 200 Breastroke 1.67% 1:53.87 1:55.77
Auburn Apple, Zachary 200 Freestyle -3.32% 1:36.57 1:33.36 Martinez, Luis 200 Butterfly 2.87% 1:43.56 1:46.53
Brigham Young Sorenson, Payton 100 Freestyle -0.46% 43.06 42.86 Sorenson, Payton 50 Freestyle 0.78% 19.22 19.37
California Quah, Zheng 100 Butterfly -3.66% 46.77 45.06 Norman, Nick 1650 Freestyle 3.63% 14:51.89 15:24.29
Cincinnati Bready, Chris 500 Freestyle -0.39% 4:21.38 4:20.37 Bready, Chris 1650 Freestyle 0.49% 14:54.17 14:58.57
Cleveland St Sikatzki, Philipp 50 Freestyle -1.68% 20.19 19.85 Sikatzki, Philipp 100 Freestyle 1.35% 42.94 43.52
Cornell Evdokimov, Alex 100 Breastroke 0.12% 52.13 52.19 Evdokimov, Alex 200 Breastroke 0.36% 1:53.72 1:54.13
Denver Loncar, Anton 200 Backstroke -1.04% 1:40.33 1:39.29 Gilbert, Colin 500 Freestyle 1.87% 4:15.73 4:20.52
Duke Payne, Dylan 100 Breastroke 0.49% 52.61 52.87 Kropp, Peter 100 Breastroke 0.86% 51.46 51.9
Florida Dressel, Caeleb 100 Freestyle -3.01% 41.24 40 Rooney, Maxime 500 Freestyle 2.15% 4:18.66 4:24.21
Florida St McCormick, Jason 100 Freestyle -0.62% 43.25 42.98 Coombs, Jason 200 IM 2.50% 1:44.03 1:46.63
Georgia Bentz, Gunnar 200 Butterfly -2.90% 1:43.06 1:40.07 Higgins, Walker 500 Freestyle 3.33% 4:14.43 4:22.91
Georgia Tech Southern, Ben 200 Butterfly -0.78% 1:43.01 1:42.21 Loschi, Moises 200 Breastroke 5.02% 1:53.08 1:58.76
GW Bolognesi, Andrea 200 Breastroke -0.62% 1:57.69 1:56.96 Bolognesi, Andrea 100 Breastroke -0.33% 52.24 52.07
Harvard Farris, Dean 200 Backstroke -4.99% 1:45.24 1:39.99 Farris, Dean 100 Backstroke 3.42% 45.38 46.93
Hawaii Aydin, Metin 200 IM -1.28% 1:44.66 1:43.32 Aydin, Metin 200 Backstroke -0.01% 1:41.03 1:41.02
Indiana Pieroni, Blake 50 Freestyle -1.87% 19.76 19.39 Tavcar, Anze 50 Freestyle 4.02% 19.66 20.45
Kentucky Higgins, Kyle 500 Freestyle -0.75% 4:20.25 4:18.29 Higgins, Kyle 200 Butterfly 0.12% 1:42.66 1:42.78
Louisville Gurevich, Etay 500 Freestyle -0.84% 4:22.28 4:20.08 Jones, Jarrett 400 IM 3.12% 3:43.36 3:50.32
Loyola (MD) Cono, Ben 100 Breastroke 0.65% 52.5 52.84 Cono, Ben 200 Breastroke 2.62% 1:54.83 1:57.84
LSU Markham, Jake 200 Freestyle 0.12% 1:33.94 1:34.05 Luht, Karl 100 Backstroke 0.75% 46.38 46.73
Michigan Auboeck, Felix 200 Freestyle -1.34% 1:33.27 1:32.02 Swanson, Charlie 200 IM 3.51% 1:44.77 1:48.45
Minnesota Turner, Daryl 100 Backstroke -0.55% 47.08 46.82 Becker, Bowen 50 Freestyle 1.99% 19.08 19.46
Missouri Chadwick, Michael 100 Freestyle -2.03% 41.8 40.95 Schwingenschloegl, Fabian 200 Breastroke 4.37% 1:52.61 1:57.53
Missouri St. Osvath, Artur 200 Breastroke -0.26% 1:54.17 1:53.87 Thomas, Antonio 1650 Freestyle 0.87% 14:56.02 15:03.83
NC State Held, Ryan 200 Freestyle -3.43% 1:34.62 1:31.37 Stuart, Hennessey 200 Backstroke 1.70% 1:39.47 1:41.16
Northwestern Wilimovsky, Jordan 1650 Freestyle -1.26% 14:34.51 14:23.45 Wilimovsky, Jordan 500 Freestyle -1.00% 4:15.93 4:13.37
Notre Dame Fujan, Reed 200 Freestyle -0.83% 1:34.52 1:33.74 Plaschka, Justin 100 Butterfly 1.72% 46.05 46.84
Ohio St Seal, Brayden 1650 Freestyle -0.01% 15:00.32 15:00.23 Long, Joey 500 Freestyle 3.33% 4:16.67 4:25.22
Pacific Shahaff, Yahav 100 Breastroke 1.01% 52.62 53.15 Shahaff, Yahav 50 Freestyle 1.48% 19.61 19.9
Penn Andrew, Mark 400 IM -0.62% 3:43.28 3:41.89 Andrew, Mark 200 IM 0.73% 1:44.75 1:45.51
Penn St Ryan, Shane 100 Freestyle 0.67% 41.86 42.14 Ryan, Shane 50 Freestyle 1.47% 19.03 19.31
Purdue Amaltdinov, Marat 100 Breastroke -0.19% 53.19 53.09 Amaltdinov, Marat 200 Breastroke -0.09% 1:52.89 1:52.79
SMU Gomez, Jonathan 200 Butterfly 0.17% 1:41.98 1:42.15 Gomez, Jonathan 400 IM 2.15% 3:43.97 3:48.78
South Carolina Mahmoud, Akaram 500 Freestyle -1.81% 4:14.34 4:09.73 Wich-Glasen, Nils 100 Breastroke 0.54% 51.58 51.86
Southern Cali Condorelli, Santo 100 Freestyle -2.36% 42.78 41.77 Stumph, Steven 200 IM 7.01% 1:44.89 1:52.24
Stanford DeVine, Abrahm 400 IM -1.76% 3:41.64 3:37.73 Dudzinski, Ryan 200 Backstroke 3.83% 1:44.45 1:48.45
Tennessee Coetzee, Ryan 100 Freestyle -1.67% 43.82 43.09 Decoursey, Kyle 100 Freestyle 1.28% 42.07 42.61
Texas Shebat, John 100 Backstroke -3.00% 45.72 44.35 Dunne, Pj 200 Freestyle 4.84% 1:34.13 1:38.69
Texas A&M Castillo Luna, Mauro 200 Breastroke -1.61% 1:53.84 1:52.01 Bonetti, Brock 200 Backstroke 1.13% 1:41.77 1:42.92
Towson Saunderson, Jack 200 Butterfly -1.17% 1:43.05 1:41.84 Saunderson, Jack 100 Butterfly 0.53% 47.01 47.26
U.S. Navy Brutkiewicz, Marlin 200 Breastroke 0.25% 1:54.35 1:54.64 Brutkiewicz, Marlin 100 Breastroke 0.26% 53.32 53.46
UNC Emslie, Craig 200 Breastroke -0.41% 1:55.43 1:54.96 Campbell, Henry 1650 Freestyle 2.51% 14:54.16 15:16.56
Utah Ungur, Paul 50 Freestyle -2.38% 20.16 19.68 Phillips, Austin 200 Freestyle 2.41% 1:34.20 1:36.47
Virginia Quinn, Austin 200 Freestyle -2.53% 1:37.48 1:35.01 Clark, Joseph 200 Backstroke 2.63% 1:41.86 1:44.54
Virginia Tech Owen, Robert 100 Backstroke -0.47% 47.07 46.85 Szabo, Norbert 200 Butterfly 1.48% 1:43.71 1:45.24
Wisconsin Hutchins, Matt 1650 Freestyle -1.85% 14:47.62 14:31.19 Goicoechea, Victor 500 Freestyle 1.32% 4:17.12 4:20.52
Yale Greenberg, Aaron 100 Freestyle -1.33% 43.48 42.9 Greenberg, Aaron 100 Backstroke 0.56% 48.12 48.39

Largest Time Drops of the Meet

Name Team Time Change Event Nationals Time Seed Time
Farris, Dean Harvard -4.99% 200 Backstroke 1:39.99 1:45.24
Quah, Zheng California -3.66% 100 Butterfly 45.06 46.77
Held, Ryan NC State -3.43% 200 Freestyle 1:31.37 1:34.62
Apple, Zachary Auburn -3.32% 200 Freestyle 1:33.36 1:36.57
Dressel, Caeleb Florida -3.01% 100 Freestyle 40 41.24
Shebat, John Texas -3.00% 100 Backstroke 44.35 45.72
Bentz, Gunnar Georgia -2.90% 200 Butterfly 1:40.07 1:43.06
Patching, Joe Auburn -2.85% 200 Freestyle 1:34.06 1:36.82
Bentz, Gunnar Georgia -2.82% 400 IM 3:36.60 3:42.89
Wieser, Christopher Arizona -2.78% 1650 Freestyle 14:44.45 15:09.74
Bentz, Gunnar Georgia -2.63% 200 IM 1:40.90 1:43.63
Thomas, Mike California -2.61% 100 Butterfly 46.31 47.55
Quinn, Austin Virginia -2.53% 200 Freestyle 1:35.01 1:37.48
Shebat, John Texas -2.51% 200 Backstroke 1:37.24 1:39.74
Ungur, Paul Utah -2.38% 50 Freestyle 19.68 20.16
Condorelli, Santo Southern Cali -2.36% 100 Freestyle 41.77 42.78
Patching, Joe Auburn -2.19% 100 Backstroke 45.47 46.49
Roberts, Jonathan Texas -2.15% 200 IM 1:42.24 1:44.49
Switkowski, Jan Florida -2.09% 200 Freestyle 1:32.44 1:34.41
Chadwick, Michael Missouri -2.03% 100 Freestyle 40.95 41.8

Largest Time Adds of the Meet

Name Team Time Change Event Nationals Time Seed Time
Stumph, Steven Southern Cali 7.01% 200 IM 1:52.24 1:44.89
Altman, Ridge Southern Cali 6.33% 200 IM 1:54.59 1:47.77
Loschi, Moises Georgia Tech 5.02% 200 Breastroke 1:58.76 1:53.08
Dunne, Pj Texas 4.84% 200 Freestyle 1:38.69 1:34.13
Schwingenschloegl, Fabian Missouri 4.37% 200 Breastroke 1:57.53 1:52.61
Tavcar, Anze Indiana 4.02% 50 Freestyle 20.45 19.66
Dudzinski, Ryan Stanford 3.83% 200 Backstroke 1:48.45 1:44.45
Schooling, Joseph Texas 3.83% 200 Butterfly 1:45.47 1:41.58
Norman, Nick California 3.63% 1650 Freestyle 15:24.29 14:51.89
Swanson, Charlie Michigan 3.51% 200 IM 1:48.45 1:44.77
Farris, Dean Harvard 3.42% 100 Backstroke 46.93 45.38
Higgins, Walker Georgia 3.33% 500 Freestyle 4:22.91 4:14.43
Long, Joey Ohio St 3.33% 500 Freestyle 4:25.22 4:16.67
Tavcar, Anze Indiana 3.12% 100 Freestyle 44 42.67
Jones, Jarrett Louisville 3.12% 400 IM 3:50.32 3:43.36
Burns, Aidan Georgia 3.09% 400 IM 3:48.40 3:41.56

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7 Comments on "NCAA D1 Men Performance vs Seed Time at Nationals"

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Interesting bit about Moises Loschi, in the prelims of the 2 breast, he was leading his heat, but mistakenly stopped at the 150, and hung on the wall for a few seconds before seeing the athletes beside him turn. Results will show a 35 second finishing split, but unfortunately it was a mental error. Felt terribly for the guy, he was on pace to drop time. But lots of us have been there before.

I saw that too but disagree that he was on target to drop time. he went 28+, 28+ but would he have gone those times if he counted correctly and knew he had another 50…doubt it…..

Yeah if you watch the race the reason he surged to the front at the 150 is that he thought it was the end and picked up his stroke rate. He probably would not have maintained the pace on either of the last two fifties had he known.

Glad to see he’s putting his Georgia tech education to work!

JP input is too short

1) I feel like Steven Stumph sandbagging 200 IMs at NCAAs is a common occurrence – he did a 1:55 in 2015, and 1:52 in both 2016 and 2017… why even swim the event if you know it isn’t there?

2) Zach Apple and John Shebat made NCAAs their breakout party.

3) Gunnar Bentz consistently drops big time in between conference and NCAAs. He’s really a big-game swimmer.

4) South Carolina’s big drops are even more impressive given that the majority of their swims were higher-yardage events – i.e., takes more of a drop to register the same percentage improvement as a shorter event.

What happened to Schwingenschloegl in the 200 breast?

he got food poisoning the night before and was up all night throwing up

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