2017 M. NCAA Analysis: Texas Losing Most Points, Still Returning Most

by Robert Gibbs 81

April 10th, 2017 College, News

A thrilling men’s NCAA championships wrapped up a couple weeks ago, but we’re still reflecting on what we saw in Indianapolis.  And while the pool at the IUPUI Natatorium is probably just now settling down from the waves produced by some incredibly fast swimming there, we’re pretty sure that both coaches and swimmers alike are already thinking about next year, and of course, we are too.

One might expect that Texas will be taking a bit of a hit after having three seniors accounting for six individual victories, and sure enough, seniors Mark Anderson, Jack Conger, Will Licon, and Clark Smith earned a whopping 153.5 individual points out of the Longhorns’ 542 total points.

Yet, such is Texas’s depth, that even losing those four competitors, they are still slated to return the most individual points, thanks to very strong sophomore and junior classes.  The Longhorns will need those swimmers to step again next year, as several other teams look to be within striking distance of the 160.5 individual points that the Longhorns will bring back next year.

While the Longhorns are losing the most points, the Missouri Tigers are arguably taking a bigger hit, as they are losing every single one of the 78.5 individual points they earned this year, as they were all courtesy of seniors Michael Chadwick, Carter Griffin, Andrew Sansoucie, and Fabian Schwingenschlogl.  Not only that, but the Tigers only had a single individual swim from any non-seniors, meaning that they’ve got a lot of rebuilding ahead of them.

California and Georgia both lose 66 points.  Eight-time individual backstroke champion Ryan Murphy was responsible for 56 of the points earned by California seniors, and he’s been a key member of most of Cal’s relays next year, so that’s going to be a big loss for the Bears.  His absence should be tempered, however, by a very strong incoming freshman class, as well as a likely 20-30 points Cal left on the table due to DQ’s.  The Bulldogs lose almost half of their individual points, including 34 earned by Chase Kalisz.

The teams which ranked 3rd-7th this year all appear to be in very similar shape heading into next year.  None of those teams lose more than 21 individual points from senior graduation, and all will return between 110 and 132.5 individual points, setting up what should be another great team battle next year, and meaning that incoming freshmen and relay performance could be critical than normal to the overall team rankings.

Here’s a team-by-team look at the top 12 teams from the 2017 NCAA Championships:

Team Senior Points Non-Senior Individual Points Returning Points (including relays) Senior Relay Swims*
Texas 153.5 160.5 388.5 7
California 66 125 283 5 (1)
Florida 12 132.5 283.5 4
NC State 21 121.5 251.5 8 (1)
Stanford 19 110 223 3(1)
Southern Cal 3 132 234 2
Indiana 12 120.5 217.5 6
Georgia 66 71 117 9
Missouri 78.5 0 101 12
Alabama 49 24.5 104.5 5(1)**
Louisville 29.5 35 114 14
Auburn 37 23.5 90.5 8

*swimmers who competed in prelims, but were swapped out in finals are in parentheses
**plus two legs of a DQ’d relay
Note: totals include divers and diving points.

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Uberfan
4 years ago

Cal had tons of incoming backstrokers and someone with the potential to get into 4 A finals

Uberfan
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

*has

PsychoDad
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

I expect 5 Longhorn backstrokes to make next NCAAs. Let’s see how Call’s will match up.

Uberfan
Reply to  PsychoDad
4 years ago

Will they final though? The only solid backstrokers they have left are Harty, Shebat and Katz incoming

stoobie
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Jon Roberts 200 Back…

Joel Lin
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Insofar as NCAA meet ‘fantasy leaguers’ math, Ryan Hoffer is basically the next Caleb Dressel. He’s a no brained top 5 in 3 individual events & his events literally translate into big attribution for relay points. He’s not a 500 free, 400 IM & 1,650 free ringer. As great as the greatest breast/IM or distance free specialists are (think Brendan Hansen or Larsen Jensen), sprinters with an elite 100 fly or 100 back are just worth the most points because of the heavy emphasis on the double points in the 5 relays.

Cal is in a seriously high leverage spot just with this one guy. Hoffer will have a huge impact on the NCAA team title race in each… Read more »

Joel Lin
Reply to  Joel Lin
4 years ago

Quick edit ‘no brainer’ and not ‘no brained’.

Before this escalated quickly, Ron Burgundy style.

Dan
Reply to  Joel Lin
4 years ago

Looking at next year, if Texas can replace Licon with a breaststroker that can score that should make it hard to catch them (more important for their relay points then the individual points). 80 points on the MR vs 40 individual points in breaststroke this year.

Uberfan
Reply to  Joel Lin
4 years ago

He’s a top 5 in 4 events since almost everyone faster than him in fly and back have graduated

Uberfan
Reply to  Robert Gibbs
4 years ago

Don’t you mean 4 A-finals? Only one 44 second backstroker left and almost all the 45 second backstrokers graduated

Joel Lin
Reply to  Robert Gibbs
4 years ago

I see the point there. Hoffer could & should improve in the 100 fly with a year of Cal training. I think it’s highly likely Hoffer is top 5 in that event & close to certain top 3 in the 50 & 100 free. Remember, Caleb won the 50 as a freshman but wasn’t yet the 3rd event dominant guy yet that year.

Remember, I’m not introducing that Hoffer is as good a swimmer as Dressel now or next year…he doesn’t need to be. The point is Dressel can blow up 3 American records in his events, but that is capped at 60 points no matter. I’m stating that Hoffer is basically equal in VALUE to Dressel as an… Read more »

E Gamble
Reply to  Joel Lin
4 years ago

Ryan Hoffer is not the next Caeleb Dressel. Ryan Hoffer is Ryan Hoffer. And if I’m not mistaken, Ryan went 41. 23 and 19.06 in 2015. He has not been able to lower these times.

Bigly
Reply to  E Gamble
4 years ago

It’s like Abby Weitzeil. Superfast in a sprint race in high school when there’s no wake from 7 other people going about the same speed. Try doing that 19.06 when a whole heat is going 18’s.

Uberfan
Reply to  Bigly
4 years ago

I think since his pr would have gotten 3rd he will do fine

Attila the Runt
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Yeah, and his PR in the 100 is from 2015. They don’t just pencil in your PRs at NCAAs.

E Gamble
Reply to  Bigly
4 years ago

Abbey gets a pass because of the Olympic year and her health issues. She’ll be ready to go next year.

Uberfan
Reply to  E Gamble
4 years ago

No shame in not being able to drop time from a 41.23 in one year that’s absurdly fast, and he is an 18.71 50 freestyler, would have gotten third at NCAA’s and unlike Caeleb he comes in with the ability to A final in 4 events.

Think about it
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

First of all you can only swim 3 events at D1 NCAAs, and second of all I think everyone can agree that dressel would make A final in at least 5 events fully tapered maybe even 6 (100 br, 200 IM, 200 Fr) not to mention his walls are good enough for him to do something nuts in the 100 back as well. Plus you have to consider that Dressel WON all 3 of his events last year, Hoffer will not do that. Hoffer is a great asset, especially as an incoming freshman, but he is not close to where Dressel is now.

Uberfan
Reply to  Think about it
4 years ago

Key word is now. We are talking about impact as a freshmen. And once Dressel graduates that’s it, no one is near Hoffer except for Craig, if you consider .50 seconds near. Why so much Hoffer hate?

Attila the Runt
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Done nothing in a year.

Uberfan
Reply to  Attila the Runt
4 years ago

Dropped time in the 50 and 200 free

Caleb
Reply to  Think about it
4 years ago

weird as it may sound, I think Dressel might have won the 200 IM this year (he was 1:42 back in the fall when he was going 41-mid in the 100 free)… and IMO probably *would* have won the 200 free. But that’s off-topic, Hoffer is a fantastic addition and the best recruit since.

Uberfan
Reply to  Caleb
4 years ago

Big difference between 1:42 and one of the fastest IM swims of all time. Really Caeleb Dressel would beat Townley Haas?
I cannot stand the Caeleb Dressel circle jerk on this site, everyone makes him sound like he’s so amazing and there’s never been someone so fast in free but also fast in fly and the IM

Caleb
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

you’re being rude, and thickheaded. In LC, Caeleb was a 1:48 when he was barely breaking 49in the 100… Last fall he was 1:33 around the same time he was dropping 42s in the 100, i.e. heavy training. Why would you not think he could drop 3 seconds at NCAAs? No one will know unless they race, but at 40.00 I predict he would be under 1:30.

Uberfan
Reply to  Caleb
4 years ago

Of course I forgot amazing front end means you have an incredible back end 200 provably why Cesar’s pr is 1:34. And do you know how big a time drop that is? 3 seconds is insane.

Caleb
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Caleb isn’t Cesar by a longshot. You sound like you never swam; if you drop 2 seconds in your 100 it’s not the least bit surprising to drop 3 seconds in your 200. Not guaranteed, but…

Uberfan
Reply to  Caleb
4 years ago

Did Dressel drop 2 seconds from his 100?

Uberfan
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Guess he didn’t Caleb what a shame 🙁

Caleb
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

from the fall, around the same time he did his early season 1:33, which wasn’t any kind of outlier for him. The guy trains for 200s..

Uberfan
Reply to  Caleb
4 years ago

Huh Caeleb Dressel dropped two seconds from his 100 pr? I didn’t know he was a 38 second freestyler

Uberfan
Reply to  Caleb
4 years ago

Calls someone rude, then calls them thickheaded then says sounds like you never swam. .>.>

aquajosh
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

He swam a 1:33.4 with a final 50 of 23 flat at Florida’s Last Chance Meet after he’d already come back up from SECs, and he closed a 1:42 200 IM in a 23.3 at midseason. I’d like to see Cielo do that.

Attila the Runt
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Ok. So who has been as fast as he is in SCY free (no one), fly (no one), IM several? Only person that matches him is Flo.

Uberfan
Reply to  Attila the Runt
4 years ago

Yes right now he may currently be the best yards swimmer no one is debating that.

Think about it
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

That’s exactly what we’re debating, you’re saying Ryan Hoffer will add as much value to Cal as Caeleb Dressel adds to Florida. These are NCAA teams which swim yards…

Uberfan
Reply to  Attila the Runt
4 years ago

who is Flo?

Zanna
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Florent Manaudou?

E Gamble
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

My bad….I forgot about that 18 71. ?

Sir Swimsalot
Reply to  E Gamble
4 years ago

He went 18.76 in December as Western Junior Nationals.

Bigly
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

They oughta just spend some time with Josa teaching him how to swim legally.

stoobie
4 years ago

Be interesting to see a follow up on this to factor in any in-coming freshman that are already swimming times that would score at NCAAs (like Hoffer).

Also, based on this alone 4th thru 7th looks like a dog fight.

Bill the pony
4 years ago

Don’t forget Ryan Harty, he’ll score big next year

a_trojan
4 years ago

USC looks real good going into next year

stoobie
Reply to  a_trojan
4 years ago

Yeah, was thinking the same thing. They seemed a little off this year. Carter was lights out, but I think everyone expected more from Santo and Malone…not sure, but thought I read/saw they were sick…might be wrong.

But I agree. Carter and Santo are difference makers. And between their returning pieces and incoming they look to be on the rise.

a_trojan
Reply to  stoobie
4 years ago

Santo did go his best times in the 50 and 100 free and threw in an 18.6 relay split, so overall pretty good season

Zanna
Reply to  stoobie
4 years ago

Santo cracked a rib

IPlayAAU
4 years ago

“as well as a likely 20-30 points left on the table due to DQ’s”
This is the swimming equivalence to saying the falcons won the Superbowl if you take out a couple holding penalties.
If a swimmer takes shortcuts on turns or extra kicks to touch the wall in a scoring position- those points were never up for grabs.

CraigH
Reply to  IPlayAAU
4 years ago

Not really. DQs at this level are a lot more rare than penalties in football. It is unlikely they will happen again.

Uberfan
4 years ago

Texas’s relay points will take a huge hit

gator
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

This is true.

SwimGeek
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

The TX relays will be just fine. For the Medleys — there’s a big dropoff losing Licon, but their 400 MR was so far ahead of the field, they could lose 2 seconds and still go 3:01! And Licon is the only piece of the 200 MR they lose. For the 400 FR, Newkirk went 41.7 in prelims and didn’t even make the finals relay (replaced by Conger’s 41.3) – so they are the heavy favorite there also. Losing Conger will hurt 800 FR, but they could add schooling back to the relay if needed. Clarm Smith did not swim great on the relay last two years.

Uberfan
Reply to  SwimGeek
4 years ago

Licons loss is big and that’s good logic you got, losing Conger doesn’t hurt their chances cause they have someone who was .40 seconds slower than him those .40 are going to matter when they also lose potentially 2 seconds with Licon gone. Yeah Clark Smith was terrible on the relays but him and Conger mean they still lose two people who were very important to it. And even those two couldn’t help beat NC state who loses one member.
The 4×50 free relay, NC state will destroy them, they have Molacek and a 22.09 49.53 LC freestyler. Face it Conger and Licon were insanely valuable to their relays.

a_trojan
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Texas next year will have Schooling, Ringgold, Jackson, and Shebat – easily could be 18.6, 18.2, 18.6, 18.4 – remember Shebat is awfully quick on free relays, just wasn’t needed this year

Uberfan
Reply to  a_trojan
4 years ago

Just cause Shebat did good at a meet in highschool and split a 19.30 doesn’t mean he’s going to be some insane freestyler on a relay. Sure he can go an 18 but I don’t think 18.6. And 18.2? You think schooling will go an 18.2 as a lead off?

readit
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

No, he’ll lead off in 18.6. Ringgold split an 18.3 at NCAAs with a 0.4 reaction time.

a_trojan
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

yea, very confident Shebat will go 18.6. And I said Schooling will go 18.6…

a_trojan
Reply to  a_trojan
4 years ago

I mean Shebat will go 18.4

TexasRelays
Reply to  a_trojan
4 years ago

Don’t forget Townley! He split an 18.6 at class relays. Freestyle relays are stacked again for next year. Hook ‘Em!

Cmon
Reply to  a_trojan
4 years ago

Cal could be close to the same- best flat starts hoffer 18.7 sendwyk 18.9 Jenson 19.1 and lynch 19.1. 3 of the 4 freshman or in high school with those times. I don’t think hoffer is going to improve much but i do think Jenson and sendyk will. 4 18s?

TexasRelays
Reply to  SwimGeek
4 years ago

Jackson is the Texas swimmer who swam the 41.7 on the 400 Free Relay Prelims, not Newkirk. Newkirk swam on the 800 Free Relay.

PK boo I\'m sad my name is too short now
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Losing Licon is a big hurt, but if it looks really awful for breaststroke it makes them winning the 800 more likely because they can put Schooling back on it. They remain huge favorites in the 200 and 400 relays.

Even if Texas gets no freshmen points I would expect that with the re-additions of Harty and Schooling’s 200 Fly combined with the improvement rates of some of their young kids that they will still be favorites. It’s difficult to make up almost 200 points in a year.

Uberfan

Please tell me how they remain huge favorites in the 200 free relay while losing a key piece? Did you know NC state is bringing in a 19.08 freestyler and someone who’s nearly a 21 in long course?

PK boo I\'m sad my name is too short now
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

NC State lost by 1.2 seconds. Texas will replace their 18.37 leg with someone who has already gone 18.6 or someone else who has 18.mid potential. Also, simply flipping Schooling and Ringgold could gain them back that simple replacement cost.

This would be different if we were talking about freshmen or internationals where we have no idea what the replacements look like but all of these are in-house replacements of athletes who have already done the times we’re talking about. The variance is much lower for Texas while they also have a higher expected value than anyone else.

swimfan
4 years ago

Everyone is talking about Cal and Texas. We all know Texas will be the team to beat. Cal has a great incoming class… but you never know with freshman! It could go either way…

Let’s talk about the rest of the schools in the top 4.

UF – People may call me crazy, but I think they will be in the mix to challenge for national team title against Cal and Texas. Their freshmen had a great season and I think they will be able to develop them to become ‘players’ at NCAA next year. Dressel did not have a good freshman year, but exploded his Soph year. I am expecting similar improvement for Rooney, Baqlah, and Bray… Read more »

Uberfan
Reply to  swimfan
4 years ago

Didn’t Dressel win the 50 free as a freshmen?

Swimfan
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

He did, then went 44.1 leading off the 4 free relay at prelims.

Zanna
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Yes he did

Bigly
4 years ago

Wow. No mention of Dean Farris. I thought his fanboys would be back out by now.

Uberfan
Reply to  Bigly
4 years ago

Yes Dean Farris who swims for Harvard is not mentioned in an article about the top 12 teams and the swimmers on them

Attila the Runt
Reply to  Uberfan
4 years ago

Remarkable.

iLikePsych
Reply to  Bigly
4 years ago

The application to change Harvard University to Farris-U is still in the approval process; once it is done SwimSwam will revised the article to include them.