2017 M. NCAA Analysis: Texas Losing Most Points, Still Returning Most

by Robert Gibbs 81

April 10th, 2017 College, News

A thrilling men’s NCAA championships wrapped up a couple weeks ago, but we’re still reflecting on what we saw in Indianapolis.  And while the pool at the IUPUI Natatorium is probably just now settling down from the waves produced by some incredibly fast swimming there, we’re pretty sure that both coaches and swimmers alike are already thinking about next year, and of course, we are too.

One might expect that Texas will be taking a bit of a hit after having three seniors accounting for six individual victories, and sure enough, seniors Mark Anderson, Jack Conger, Will Licon, and Clark Smith earned a whopping 153.5 individual points out of the Longhorns’ 542 total points.

Yet, such is Texas’s depth, that even losing those four competitors, they are still slated to return the most individual points, thanks to very strong sophomore and junior classes.  The Longhorns will need those swimmers to step again next year, as several other teams look to be within striking distance of the 160.5 individual points that the Longhorns will bring back next year.

While the Longhorns are losing the most points, the Missouri Tigers are arguably taking a bigger hit, as they are losing every single one of the 78.5 individual points they earned this year, as they were all courtesy of seniors Michael Chadwick, Carter Griffin, Andrew Sansoucie, and Fabian Schwingenschlogl.  Not only that, but the Tigers only had a single individual swim from any non-seniors, meaning that they’ve got a lot of rebuilding ahead of them.

California and Georgia both lose 66 points.  Eight-time individual backstroke champion Ryan Murphy was responsible for 56 of the points earned by California seniors, and he’s been a key member of most of Cal’s relays next year, so that’s going to be a big loss for the Bears.  His absence should be tempered, however, by a very strong incoming freshman class, as well as a likely 20-30 points Cal left on the table due to DQ’s.  The Bulldogs lose almost half of their individual points, including 34 earned by Chase Kalisz.

The teams which ranked 3rd-7th this year all appear to be in very similar shape heading into next year.  None of those teams lose more than 21 individual points from senior graduation, and all will return between 110 and 132.5 individual points, setting up what should be another great team battle next year, and meaning that incoming freshmen and relay performance could be critical than normal to the overall team rankings.

Here’s a team-by-team look at the top 12 teams from the 2017 NCAA Championships:

Team Senior Points Non-Senior Individual Points Returning Points (including relays) Senior Relay Swims*
Texas 153.5 160.5 388.5 7
California 66 125 283 5 (1)
Florida 12 132.5 283.5 4
NC State 21 121.5 251.5 8 (1)
Stanford 19 110 223 3(1)
Southern Cal 3 132 234 2
Indiana 12 120.5 217.5 6
Georgia 66 71 117 9
Missouri 78.5 0 101 12
Alabama 49 24.5 104.5 5(1)**
Louisville 29.5 35 114 14
Auburn 37 23.5 90.5 8

*swimmers who competed in prelims, but were swapped out in finals are in parentheses
**plus two legs of a DQ’d relay
Note: totals include divers and diving points.

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81 Comments on "2017 M. NCAA Analysis: Texas Losing Most Points, Still Returning Most"

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Cal had tons of incoming backstrokers and someone with the potential to get into 4 A finals

*has

I expect 5 Longhorn backstrokes to make next NCAAs. Let’s see how Call’s will match up.

Will they final though? The only solid backstrokers they have left are Harty, Shebat and Katz incoming

Jon Roberts 200 Back…

Insofar as NCAA meet ‘fantasy leaguers’ math, Ryan Hoffer is basically the next Caleb Dressel. He’s a no brained top 5 in 3 individual events & his events literally translate into big attribution for relay points. He’s not a 500 free, 400 IM & 1,650 free ringer. As great as the greatest breast/IM or distance free specialists are (think Brendan Hansen or Larsen Jensen), sprinters with an elite 100 fly or 100 back are just worth the most points because of the heavy emphasis on the double points in the 5 relays. Cal is in a seriously high leverage spot just with this one guy. Hoffer will have a huge impact on the NCAA team title race in each of… Read more »

Quick edit ‘no brainer’ and not ‘no brained’.

Before this escalated quickly, Ron Burgundy style.

Looking at next year, if Texas can replace Licon with a breaststroker that can score that should make it hard to catch them (more important for their relay points then the individual points). 80 points on the MR vs 40 individual points in breaststroke this year.

He’s a top 5 in 4 events since almost everyone faster than him in fly and back have graduated

Ryan Hoffer is not the next Caeleb Dressel. Ryan Hoffer is Ryan Hoffer. And if I’m not mistaken, Ryan went 41. 23 and 19.06 in 2015. He has not been able to lower these times.

It’s like Abby Weitzeil. Superfast in a sprint race in high school when there’s no wake from 7 other people going about the same speed. Try doing that 19.06 when a whole heat is going 18’s.

I think since his pr would have gotten 3rd he will do fine

Attila the Runt

Yeah, and his PR in the 100 is from 2015. They don’t just pencil in your PRs at NCAAs.

Abbey gets a pass because of the Olympic year and her health issues. She’ll be ready to go next year.

No shame in not being able to drop time from a 41.23 in one year that’s absurdly fast, and he is an 18.71 50 freestyler, would have gotten third at NCAA’s and unlike Caeleb he comes in with the ability to A final in 4 events.

Think about it

First of all you can only swim 3 events at D1 NCAAs, and second of all I think everyone can agree that dressel would make A final in at least 5 events fully tapered maybe even 6 (100 br, 200 IM, 200 Fr) not to mention his walls are good enough for him to do something nuts in the 100 back as well. Plus you have to consider that Dressel WON all 3 of his events last year, Hoffer will not do that. Hoffer is a great asset, especially as an incoming freshman, but he is not close to where Dressel is now.

Key word is now. We are talking about impact as a freshmen. And once Dressel graduates that’s it, no one is near Hoffer except for Craig, if you consider .50 seconds near. Why so much Hoffer hate?

Attila the Runt

Done nothing in a year.

Dropped time in the 50 and 200 free

weird as it may sound, I think Dressel might have won the 200 IM this year (he was 1:42 back in the fall when he was going 41-mid in the 100 free)… and IMO probably *would* have won the 200 free. But that’s off-topic, Hoffer is a fantastic addition and the best recruit since.

Big difference between 1:42 and one of the fastest IM swims of all time. Really Caeleb Dressel would beat Townley Haas?
I cannot stand the Caeleb Dressel circle jerk on this site, everyone makes him sound like he’s so amazing and there’s never been someone so fast in free but also fast in fly and the IM

you’re being rude, and thickheaded. In LC, Caeleb was a 1:48 when he was barely breaking 49in the 100… Last fall he was 1:33 around the same time he was dropping 42s in the 100, i.e. heavy training. Why would you not think he could drop 3 seconds at NCAAs? No one will know unless they race, but at 40.00 I predict he would be under 1:30.

Of course I forgot amazing front end means you have an incredible back end 200 provably why Cesar’s pr is 1:34. And do you know how big a time drop that is? 3 seconds is insane.

Caleb isn’t Cesar by a longshot. You sound like you never swam; if you drop 2 seconds in your 100 it’s not the least bit surprising to drop 3 seconds in your 200. Not guaranteed, but…

Did Dressel drop 2 seconds from his 100?

Guess he didn’t Caleb what a shame 🙁

from the fall, around the same time he did his early season 1:33, which wasn’t any kind of outlier for him. The guy trains for 200s..

Huh Caeleb Dressel dropped two seconds from his 100 pr? I didn’t know he was a 38 second freestyler

Calls someone rude, then calls them thickheaded then says sounds like you never swam. .>.>

He swam a 1:33.4 with a final 50 of 23 flat at Florida’s Last Chance Meet after he’d already come back up from SECs, and he closed a 1:42 200 IM in a 23.3 at midseason. I’d like to see Cielo do that.

Attila the Runt

Ok. So who has been as fast as he is in SCY free (no one), fly (no one), IM several? Only person that matches him is Flo.

Yes right now he may currently be the best yards swimmer no one is debating that.

Think about it

That’s exactly what we’re debating, you’re saying Ryan Hoffer will add as much value to Cal as Caeleb Dressel adds to Florida. These are NCAA teams which swim yards…

who is Flo?

Florent Manaudou?

My bad….I forgot about that 18 71. 😀

Sir Swimsalot

He went 18.76 in December as Western Junior Nationals.

They oughta just spend some time with Josa teaching him how to swim legally.

Be interesting to see a follow up on this to factor in any in-coming freshman that are already swimming times that would score at NCAAs (like Hoffer).

Also, based on this alone 4th thru 7th looks like a dog fight.

Bill the pony

Don’t forget Ryan Harty, he’ll score big next year

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