Leon Marchand Chooses 500 Free Over 200 IM Title Defense

2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 27-30, 2024
• IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Pre-Selection Psych Sheets

When the pre-selection psych sheets were dropped late Monday night, there were lots of interesting event selections, but none will send more shockwaves through the sport than the decision by Leon Marchand of France to swim the 500 free on the 2nd day of the meet and not the 200 IM.

That goes along with his usual NCAA schedule of the 400 IM and 200 breaststroke, both of which he wont titles in last season.

Marchand is the two-time defending NCAA Champion in the 200 IM, and his 1:36.34 is the fastest time ever in that event. Still, he swam the 500 free at the Pac-12 Championships last week and won in 4:06.18 – which is also the fastest time ever, in spite of not being fully rested for the meet (a statement supported by both his teammates and his results in other races).

Doing the comparative math leaves some eye-opening possibilities about what Marchand could do in the 500 free at the NCAA Championships later this month.

So Leon went 3:34.66 in the 400 IM last night. He's been 3:28.82. He's been 2.8% faster in the 400 IM.

By the transitive property of swimming, if he went 4:06.18 in the 500 free, at his best he can go 3:59.29.

I don't make the rules, that's just math. @BarryRevzin check me. pic.twitter.com/WVgEOeNPOh

— Braden Keith (@Braden_Keith) March 9, 2024

Of course, this is not really how swimming works, and I don’t actually think he’s going to go a 3:59.29. But I also think we can’t write off the possibility of a paradigm-shifting swim like he’s done in the 400 IM. The 400 IM record was 3:33.42 by Chase Kalisz when Marchand began his college career, and now that record is 3:28.82.

That leads me to believe that some time that doesn’t really sound right – maybe a 4:02 or a 4:03 – is not outside of the realm of reason.

While Arizona State feels more-and-more like the favorites every week, the two-time defending champions from Cal are still contenders in this team race, and there are some point implications of this choice.

In both races, Arizona State has the top seed not named Leon Marchand – Zalan Sarkany in the 500 free, and Hubert Kos (in the 200 IM. In fact, Arizona State has the top two seeds in the 200 IM even without Marchand – Hubert Kos (1:38.77) and Owen McDonald (1:39.35).

Still, in both cases, his teammates are susceptible to threats from Cal swimmers who skipped the Pac-12 Championships – Destin Lasco in the 200 IM, who was the runner-up last year in a new American Record of 1:38.10, and Gabriel Jett, who was 6th at NCAAs last year in the 500 free in 4:12.52.

While Jett has had some trouble hitting his NCAA taper in past seasons, the potential is clear in the 500 free.

It’s a bit of a tricky calculation, because while Cal’s Lasco is the bigger threat of the two, he has to go against the better #2 in Hubert Kos, who has been racing very well all season. Zalan Sarkany‘s 4:09.19 seed in the 500 free, meanwhile, is a few seconds slower than the likely winning time with swimmers like Jake Magahey, Jake Mitchell, and Luke Hobson lurking.

In the 500 free, Marchand’s presence tamps down on two seeded Arizona State scorers (#2 seed Sarkany, #13 seed Julian Hill) and one seeded Cal scorer (#4 seed Gabriel Jett). In the 200 IM, he would have pushed down three seeded Arizona State scorers (Kos, McDonald, #11 seed David Schlicht) and one seeded Cal scorer (Lasco).

And of course all of the above math presumes a Marchand win in either race – which seems a given if he hits his taper again. He always seems to hit his taper, and that has to be the basis and assumption on which this decision was made.

Ultimately, this feels like a Virginia-esque decision to separate the team’s biggest stars into different races to build a wave of momentum. Arizona State will want that momentum early because Cal shows year-after-year how good they are on the final day of the meet – though this year with Marchand, Kos, and Kharun holding top seeds for day four, they’re going to be very good as well.

This is Arizona State’s meet to lose, and I think ultimately this decision will just ramp-up the hype factor of the expected win. In team swimming, that matters – both in the now, and the later.