FanDuel Sportsbook has released the first betting odds for swimming at the Paris Olympics next month, featuring China’s Pan Zhanle (-180) and Australia’s Mollie O’Callaghan (+105) as the favorites in the men’s and women’s 100-meter freestyle, respectively.
Pan blasted a world record of 46.80 leading off China’s 4×100 free relay at February’s World Championships, where also won the 2024 world title in 47.53. The 19-year-old followed up that performance with an impressive 46.97 at the Chinese Olympic Trials in April.
There could be some strong value in selecting an “underdog” to upset Pan in the men’s 100 free. Rio 2016 Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers is listed at +300 odds, meaning one would quadruple their money with an accurate prediction. The 26-year-old Australian is ranked 11th this season with a 47.63 from April, but he won the 2023 world title in 47.15 — just off his personal-best 47.08 from the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.
David Popovici might also be a smart pick at +340 odds after the 19-year-old Romanian ripped a 46.86 at the European Championships earlier this month, making him the second-fastest man in the world this season behind Pan. The self-proclaimed “Skinny Legend” won the 2022 world title in 47.58, broke the world record at the 2022 European Championships with a 46.86, and placed 6th at the 2023 World Championships with a 47.83.
The American duo of Chris Guiliano (+1300) and Jack Alexy (+750) are also dark horse contenders after finishing 1-2 at U.S. Olympic Trials earlier this month. Alexy clocked a U.S. Open record of 47.08 in prelims before placing 2nd in the final (47.47) behind Guiliano (47.38 after 47.25 in semifinals).
French national champion Maxime Grousset is listed at +1800 odds, meaning a $5 bet would net $90. The 25-year-old is ranked 5th in the world this season at 47.33 from French Trials earlier this month.
Other contenders include Great Britain’s Matthew Richards (+2300), Italy’s Alessandro Miressi (+3500), Canada’s Josh Liendo (+5000), and Hungary’s Nandor Nemeth (+5000). Richards is ranked 13th this season (47.82 from February), Miressi is ranked 10th (47.61 from November), Liendo is ranked 8th (47.55 from May), and Nemeth is ranked 6th (47.49 from earlier this month).
Unless FanDuel is holding onto some inside info, don’t take the bait on Russia’s Kliment Kolesnikov being listed at +6500 odds. He ruled out competing at the Paris Olympics as a neutral athlete back in December.
On the women’s side, O’Callaghan should have tough competition for the title with Hong Kong standout Siobhan Haughey (+270) and Dutch freestyler Marrit Steenbergen (+500) also in the mix. Last year, O’Callaghan won the 2023 world title in 52.16 ahead of Haughey (52.49) and Steenbergen (52.71). In February, Steenbergen (52.56) held off Haughey (52.56) for the 2024 world title as O’Callaghan skipped the event altogether.
Shayna Jack is listed at +600 odds after earning the second Australian spot behind O’Callaghan. Her 52.65 from earlier this month ranks 7th in the world this season.
Other dark horse contenders include Kate Douglass (+1000), Yang Junxuan (+2900 odds), and Torri Huske (+4200). Douglass ranks 5th in the world this season with her personal-best 52.56 from earlier this month, Yang ranks 8th with her personal-best 52.68 from April, and Huske ranks 9th with her personal-best 52.90 from earlier this month.
Chalmers & Shayna Jack!
I got alexy on betonline for like +1400 right after his prelims swim 25 limit though 🙁
Someone I know placed a pretty hefty bet on Alexy at +1800 (pretty sure it was after his 47.0 at Trials) and we’re 98% sure FD closed the books immediately after the bet was placed. I wouldn’t be swayed too much by these odds; imho, it seems like FD doesn’t quite know what’s what in the 100 Free after what this person and I saw last week.
That explains it couldn’t find it Money well spent
Anyone know what states this bet is available in? My FanDuel is showing basketball golf and volleyball as the only Olympic options. Not sure why
Those who truly know olympic swimming know that Chalmers has a high chance of winning. No, he probably will not put out the fastest time of the competition. But this is one of the most antecipated olympic final of recent decades. History shows us that 99% of really fast guys can’t even come close to their PBs in the final, especially first timers like Pan and Alexy. Who’s the one swimmer that’s prooven 2x that he can go his best at this stage? Chalmers
Compared to Pan and Popovich, Kyle’s chances of winning are slim, but I’m almost in agreement with you. He is definitely better than Pan and Popovici in terms of performing at his best in the final.
I get the emphasis on best times, but my disagreement is with the theory that best times translate into highest chances of winning. Again, history does not show that.
Yes Pan has the best time but he also showed to be particularly sensitive to pressure from major events. Paris will be about winning a race. From that standpoint, Chalmers’ resume just puts him in front. Popovici comes second mainly because he is still in a different league in terms of potential, so he might go 46 even on a bad swim
How does Popovici have more potential than Pan when they are basically the same age?
Well he went 47.3 when he was 16 and 46.8 when he was 17 so I think that’s a decent indicator. He had a hiccup last year but is now back to his best, and as long as he keeps on this trajectory he might continue to do historic things.
I’d say both Pan and Popovici have more potential to win than Chalmers but are also more likely to miss the podium entirely than Chalmers. Pan and Popovici have higher ceilings but also lower floors than Chalmers.
If Chalmers is healthy and swimming at 100% I’d say he’s the most likely to podium from the entire field.
99% is a bold claim. Alexy last year had his best performance in finals.
I would love Chalmers to win but I definitely don’t see it. Ironically, you’re betting on the veteran with experience but when he won his gold medal he was the teenager who hit a PB.
The other issue is Chalmers was injured and was slow at trials and we have no idea what form he’ll be in. If he swam a 47 low at trials I’d have much more faith in him
I only 3 swimmers winning this Pan, Popovici & Chalmers. Not saying this is the podium, just saying these are the only ones I think can win.
We got swim betting before we got GTA 6
I’ve been betting on Olympic swimming for multiple cycles now.
It’s great, there is always undervalued swimmers.
Where can we bet on Swimming for OLY’s?
I’ll take JAlexy bet.