Cracking the Shanghai Relays: Womens 400 Medley

The medley relays are where things really get dicey in Shanghai. In the free relays, it’s more clear-cut who is and is not going to be on a relay. In the medley, where certain swimmers (Natalie Coughlin and Alicia Coutts for example) could swim more than one leg of the medley, it’s harder to predict lineups. In general, this flexibility involves the freestyle leg somehow, and rarely affects the breaststrokers, which helps keep the number of possible permeutations down.

Links  to the men’s 400 and the women’s 400, where we’ve picked the Americans and the Dutch to win, respectiely. We’ve also taken the American men to win the men’s 800 and the Australians in the women’s 800.

To see the full selections for all of the men’s and women’s races, click here:
(Women’s part 1 | Women’s part 2) (Men’s part 1 | Men’s part 2)

This relay seems to be the American women’s best-chance race to win gold in. There’s a ton of contenders here, because a medley relay tends to reward top-end explosiveness in a roster more than the free relays, which reward depth a bit more. That allows some countries with a small, elite nucleus, like Sweden, better chances at medals.

For the bigger countries with more options, the medley relays are appropriately placed at the end of the meet. This means that all of the 100 meter races are over, and coaches have a great chance to see how well everyone is swimming. This can make a huge influence on the decisions made, so we’ll have to revisit these when the race gets nearer.

Rather than looking as much at ages (except when notably young or old) in these medleys, we’ll instead focus on the different possible combinations and reorderings.

The Squads

USA

Option A Cumulative: 3:56.16
Natalie Coughlin (59.70)
Rebecca Soni (1:04.93)
Dana Vollmer (57.39)
Jessica Hardy (54.14)

Option B Cumulative: 3:55.55
Missy Franklin (59.56)
Rebecca Soni (1:04.93)
Dana Vollmer (57.39)
Natalie Coughlin (53.67)

Option C Cumulative: 3:55.89
Natalie Coughlin (59.70)
Rebecca Soni (1:04.93)
Christine Magnuson (57.32)
Dana Vollmer (53.94)
Notes: The only leg that’s certain here is the breaststroke. All reports from the American team are that Franklin’s positive attitude has been infectious on the trip so far, so I think she’s going to have an awesome meet. Vollmer and Magnuson were a dead-heat last year in the 100 fly, so that decision could come down to who’s been swimming best, but with how fast Vollmer has been this year, they have to work her onto this relay. I like Option B, because last year Coughlin’s freestyle seemed sharper than her backstroke. The times seem to agree.

Australia

Option A Cumulative: 3:56.14
Emily Seebohm (59.21)
Leisel Jones (1:05.66)
Alicia Coutts (57.25)
Yolane Kukla (54.02)

Option B Cumulative: 3:56.48
Belinda Hocking (59.55)
Leisel Jones (1:05.66)
Alicia Coutts (57.25)
Yolane Kukla (54.02)

Option C Cumulative: 3:56.38
Emily Seebohm (59.21)
Leisel Jones (1:05.66)
Stephanie Rice (57.71)
Alicia Coutts (53.80)

Option D Cumulative: 3:56.72
Belinda Hocking (59.55)
Leisel Jones (1:05.66)
Stephanie Rice (57.71)
Alicia Coutts (53.80)

Option E Cumulative: 3:56.42
Belinda Hocking (59.55)
Leisel Jones (1:05.66)
Alicia Coutts (57.25)
Emily Seebohm (53.96)
Notes: When Seebohm is healthy, she’s a no-brainer on this relay. She hasn’t been that for the past 6 months, however, and so Hocking is not a bad backup plan. In reality, there’s two options here with a different backstroker at the helm of each. The two sets are virtually identical, based on flat-starts, but I’m going to put my bet on A/B rather than C/D. Stephanie Rice has a tough schedule, and the 400 IM heats and finals are the next day. That is a stacked field, and she will need all of the rest that she can get if she’s going to earn a medal. They could also go a little creative and try Option E, but I think you only take that risk if Seebohm proves she hasn’t been too affected by her multitude of hospitalizations. Lots of options instead of Kukla at freestyle, as she loses part of her advantage on a relay (versus a flat) start because she’s so quick and powerful from the set position. Guehrer could also be an option on the anchor.

Japan

Option A Cumulative: 3:58.39
Aya Terakawa (59.13)
Satomi Suzuki (1:06.94)
Yuka Kato (57.80)
Haruka Ueda (54.52)
Notes: Not a whole lot of options here. They could swap out Ueda for Yayoi Matsumoto if one over-or-under performs, but that’s unlikely. This relay finished 3rd at Pan Pacs last year, which also made them 3rd in the world.

China

Option A Cumulative: 3:57.47
Jing Zhao (58.94)
Liping Ji (1:06.81)
Jiao Liuyang (57.67)
Yi Tang (54.08)

Option B Cumulative:3:56.95
 Jing Zhao (58.94)
Liping Ji (1:06.81)
Liu Zige (57.39)
Yi Tang (54.08)
Notes: Option B seems to be the obvious way to go, especially with Jiao LIuyang already pulled out of the 100 fly, but if Zige has an off meet, there’s a slight chance they could go option B.

Great Britain

Option A Cumulative: 3:59.01
Elizabeth Simmonds (59.43)
Kate Haywood (1:08.29)
Ellen Gandy (57.68)
Fran Halsall (53.61)

Option B Cumulative: 3:59.04
Gemma Spofforth (59.46)
Kate Haywood (1:08.29)
Ellen Gandy (57.68)
Fran Halsall (53.61)

Option C Cumulative: 3:58.76
Elizabeth Simmonds (59.43)
Kate Haywood (1:08.29)
Jemma Lowe (57.43)
Fran Halsall (53.61)

Option D Cumulative: 3:58.79
Gemma Spofforth (59.46)
Kate Haywood (1:08.29)
Jemma Lowe (57.43)
Fran Halsall (53.61)
Notes:  It was a godsend that Lowe outtouched Halsall (by .01) at ASA Nationals, because otherwise this relay becomes an incredible mess. As it is, the biggest decisions here are between Spofforth and Simmonds, and then Lowe and Gandy. Spofforth and Simmonds were near-identical in 2010, though with Spofforth training in the famed Gator Swim Club-no-mid-season-taper group, Simmonds has been way faster this year so far. On the butterfly, Lowe has the faster time, but it was done at a much different point of the season (ASA Nationals in May versus British Nationals in March). My gut feeling is that on taper, Gandy will sneak by Lowe. The nice part about these decisions is that they’re head-to-head (not rotational, like the Americans), so it will make for an easier decision after the individual races. What hurts this relay is a breaststroker. On the other three legs, they’re as solid as anybody, but Haywood (there are a few other plausible options there) could lose three seconds to Soni and Jones on the breaststroke leg.

Sweden

Option A Cumulative: 4:01.02
Sarah Sjostrom (1:01.45)
Jennie Johansson (1:07.36)
Therese Alshammar (57.55)
Gabriella Fagundez (54.66)

Option B Cumulative: 4:00.79
Therese Svendsen (1:01.87)
Jennis Johansson (1:07.36)
Therese Alshammar (57.55)
Sarah Sjostrom (54.01)

Option C Cumulative:4:01.32
Therese Svendsen (1:01.87)
Jennis Johansson (1:07.36)
Sarah Sjostrom (57.32)
Therese Alshammar (54.77)
Notes: Working through this relay reminded me of making summer league relays. Not because these aren’t spectacular swimmers, but because you have to give serious consideration to putting your best swimmer in their third-best stroke on a medley (something that all summer-league coaches are familiar with). When looking at the times in this relay, the key to remember is that Sjostrom never swims anything but a 100 fly and 100 free on a full taper, and Alshammar never swims anything other than a 100 fly on a full taper. So when you start moving those pieces around, you have to understand that option B is fastest by cumulative splits because that’s the race that includes the most tapered swims. Last year, they went in concept with plan B (except that they had Joline Hostman on breaststroke instead of Johansson, and Henriette Stenkvist on back instead of Svenson). But last year, their auxillary freestylers hadn’t shown the same speed that they have this year. Last year, their best option was Josefine Lillihage, who went a 54.6 on a full taper. This year, they have two swimmers (Fagundez and Marko-Varga) who have gone 54.6’s in-season. At the same time, SMU star Svendsen’s emergence in the backstroke, with that 1:01.87 coming at the Charlotte Grand Prix in May, might make B the most viable option.

The Netherlands

Option A Cumulative: 3:59.12
Femke Heemskerk (1:00.03)
Moniek Hijhuis (1:08.03)
Inge Dekker (57.62)
Ranomi Kromowidjojo (53.44)
Notes: Remember those Dutch sprint freestylers? Well, it turns out they’re pretty good at the other strokes, too. This relay, with Dekker’s younger sister Lia on the breaststroke leg, took 5th at World’s in 2009, but even without a suit Heemskerk has cut over a second off of her 100 backstroke National Record set in that race. If the Dutch want to medal, it’s going to be on the relatively-unknown Hijhuis to keep them in the hunt halfway through the race.

Russia

Option A Cumulative: 3:58.74
Anastasia Zueva (59.35)
Yulia Efimova (1:06.32)
Irina Bespalova (58.85)
Vernoika Popova (54.22)
Notes: There aren’t many better front halves in swimming right now, and Popova has taken huge strides this year on the freestyle leg. But Bespalova on the butterfly leg enters the race more than a second slower than anyone else in the field. If she swims out of her mind, Russia could sneak onto the medal stand. Otherwise, they’re in the cluster for 4th.

Analysis

This is a really tough relay to call because it hinges so much (seemingly moreso than any other relay) on how individual swimmers are performing, because many teams don’t have the same luxuries to drop that 4th swimmer off and replace them. If Dana Vollmer or Natalie Coughlin aren’t swimming well, the Americans could replace them and would probably still be good for a medal. If Sarah Sjostrom or Inge Dekker aren’t swimming well, those relays are sunk.

When looking at the majority of these top relays, they’re very similar on the backstroke, butterfly, and freestyle legs. The big difference maker will be the breaststroke, where the USA and Australia have a huge advantage (and the Japanese, Russians, and Chinese to a lesser extent). The Americans and Australians also have the most flexibility in their relays, which alows them to pick out those who are having the best meets and work their relays around them. For that reason, I see these as the top two relays. The Chinese seem to have pretty solid positioning for bronze, with the rest in an all-out dogfight for 4th-place.

Japan and Russia seem to be the best positioned to move onto the medal stand, though a lot of countries are a halway-decent improvement from their weakest leg from being in the thick of the race too.

Updated Picks

1. USA
2. Australia
3. China
4. Russia
5. Japan
6. The Netherlands
7. Great Britain
8. Sweden