2013 Women’s NCAA Championships, A Narrative as Georgia Marches Toward Day 3 With a Lead and An Edge

The same 10 teams hold spots at the top of the standings after two days at the 2013 Women’s NCAA Swimming Championships, and they actually remain in the same order with one exception: Cal has shot up to sit 19 points ahead of Tennessee, and only 15 behind Georgia, headed into the meet’s final day.

But the final day will be a big day for the Bulldogs. Alongside Texas A&M and Florida (and Georgia is the only of the three consistently outscoring seed), they are expected to have the biggest final day of this meet. By projections, even without diving, the Bulldogs would be looking at about a 55 point victory in this meet ahead of the two-time defending champions.

It’s hard to guess what will happen on the platform, but both Cal and Georgia will be counting on scorers for the meet’s final diving event, so we’ll call that about a wash until further notice.

Here’s the narrative of how this story is seeded to go on the meet’s final day:

1650 freestyle – Georgia has two seeded scorers, to Cal’s none. By seed, the Bulldogs would then push into the lead by about 36 points, though we feel that they’re likely to outscore their seeds by a few points in this race.

200 backstroke – after the 200 freestyle she swam today, Cal’s Liz Pelton has to be the favorite in the 200 backstroke. Any points by Cal’s Kelsey Gaid are a bonus (she’s seeded 14th), but expect the lead to be about 20 after this event.

100 freestyle – It’s a freestyle event, so you know the Bulldogs will be locked-and-loaded. Megan Romano and Allison Schmitt are in a groove, and both should A-Final; they are seeded for four total scorers, which means lots of chances to move up (or, of course, down). Cal is counting on the freshman Acker, who had a good 200 free, but she alone won’t be able to battle of Georgia. The lead would stretch to around 50-55 at this point.

200 breaststroke – Cal’s Caitlin Leverenz is one of the best 200 breaststrokers in history, but Georgia has two scorers in Melanie Margalis and Annie Zhu. Zhu hasn’t been her best in this meet, but even at that the breaststroke leg of her 400 IM looks solid. Expect her to be able to make the A-Final. Leverenz should be top two in this race, based on what we’ve seen so far, so this one comes out as about even when totaled up. Expect the lead to remain about 50 points.

200 fly – getting a second scorer in this event is big for Georgia to establish an official “runaway” headed toward the relay. The young pair of Lauren Harrington and Hali Flickinger need to do whatever it takes in the morning to get a second swim in this race. Cal again should have the best individual swimmer; hard to pick against Bootsma for at least a top-5 finish after how good she’s been at this meet. Cal makes possibly 5 points or so back, leaving the lead still between 40-45.

Platform – as we said, this one could go either way. Between Ann-Perry Blank and Laura Ryan, Georgia has two with scoring potential (Ryan was 12th in prelims last year but scratched this final while at Indiana). This is the best event for Cal’s Kahley Rowell, who save one dive was really good on the 3-meter. She was 6th at NCAA’s last year. The volatility factor here is high, but Cal has a chance to get the race under 40.

Women’s 400 free relay – We’ll spare you the “stranger things have happened” line, but for Georgia, with their great freestyle group, the 400 free relay should come down to a “don’t DQ, and the title is yours” situation. The ‘Dawgs could win this race if they really push their starts, but that mentality will be greatly affected by whether they come in above or below the 40-point margin line. Regardless, the predicted outcome is clear: Georgia is well on their way to the programs 5th team championship, which would tie Auburn for the third-most all-time among women’s programs.

Of course, if it comes down to that, Georgia does have the best 400 free relay on paper, and are the three-time defending champions in the event, so if a DQ or a whole bunch of upsets makes this team battle close at the end, the Bulldogs can surely shoot it out with anybody.

In the battles for the rest of the spots: Tennessee, Arizona, and A&M should really tighten up for 3rd-place on this last day. The Aggies have some seeded big scorers in the 200 fly and the 1650, but Tennessee and Arizona both have better 400 free relays (and don’t forget that Arizona has still saved Margo Geer for a 5th relay on Saturday). Tennessee is the only team of the three with any divers on platform, and the way Lamp and McGroarty have been going at it, it’s hard to bet against them.

The same type of battle should be going on for 6th, with USC (and a diver Haley Ishimatsu) trying to fend off Stanford and Florida. The Gators should have a good last day, but USC has a lot of chances to move up with no holes in their lineup – they have a seeded scorer in every day 3 event.

Texas should be secure with a second-straight 9th-place finish, as their platform divers are really good. The gap seems a little to big for them to jump to the top 8. Minnesota has two good platform divers as well, and two really good 200 breaststrokers, so that should be enough to hold on to a top 10 finish.

Our updated predictions, with one day to go, are pretty much how things sit right now, with only one change:

1. Georgia
2. Cal
3. Tennessee
4. Arizona
5. Texas A&M
6. USC
7. Florida
8. Stanford
9. Texas
10. Minnesota