2021 NCAA Men’s Day 2 Ups/Downs: Cal Could Outscore Texas By 60 In Pool

2021 NCAA MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

  • When: Wednesday, March 24 – Saturday, March 27, 2021
  • Where: Greensboro Aquatic Center / Greensboro, NC (Eastern Time Zone)
  • Prelims 10 AM/ Finals 6 PM (Local Time)
  • Short course yards (SCY) format
  • Defending champion: Cal (1x) – 2019 results
  • Streaming:
  • Championship Central
  • Psych Sheets
  • Live Results

For those unfamiliar with swimming terminology, the concept of “Ups” and “Downs” is a good way to track which teams performed best at prelims. In prelims, swimmers qualify for one of three finals heats: the top 8 finishers make the A final, places 9 through 16 the B final and places 17 through 24 the C final. In finals, swimmers are locked into their respective final, meaning a swimmer in the B heat (spots 9-16) can only place as high as 9th or as low as 16th, even if they put up the fastest or slowest time of any heat in the final.

With that in mind, we’ll be tracking “Ups,” “Mids” and “Downs” after each prelims session. “Up” refers to swimmers in the A final, “Mid” to swimmers in the B final and “Down” to swimmers in the C final.

The California Golden Bears lead the way in total A finalists (6), total qualified scorers (10) and in projected prelims points (122) coming out of day 2 heats.

In what is expected to be a spirited Cal/Texas battle for the team title, Texas took round 1 in last night’s 800 free relay. But Cal struck back hard this morning, qualifying twice as many A finalists (6) as Texas did (3).

Neither day’s result is particularly surprising. Texas is always strong in the 800 free relay and was expected to win last night. This morning’s events generally favor Cal, generally loaded in the 50 free and strong in the IMs. Still, the disparity between the two teams was clear this morning, and Cal should take over the points lead tonight. The meet is far from over, though, as Texas has some of its best events (200 free, 400 IM) coming up tomorrow.

Texas should also add some diving scoring this afternoon – we’d expect at least two of the four Longhorn divers to score significant points on 1-meter today, including the title favorite Jordan Windle. Still, Cal is seeded to outscore Texas by 62 tonight – that should safely cover Texas’s diving advantage unless the Longhorns can put 3 divers into the A final and score a fourth.

The other piece not included yet: relays. Tonight is a busy night of relays, opening with the 200 free relay (Cal is probably favored here, especially with the way Ryan Hoffer and Bjorn Seeliger swam this morning) and closing with the 400 medley relay (we projected a pretty close race, though we gave Texas the edge).

CURRENT SCORES (THROUGH DAY ONE)

  1. Texas 40
  2. California 34
  3. Texas A&M 32
  4. Florida 30
  5. NC State 28
  6. Georgia 26
  7. Stanford 24
  8. Louisville 22
  9. Indiana 18
  10. Virginia Tech 14
  11. Michigan 12
  12. Arizona 10
  13. Virginia 8
  14. Ohio St 6
  15. Missouri 4
  16. Notre Dame 2

DAY 2 UPS/DOWNS

Credit to Andrew Mering for running the numbers.

Not including: 1-meter diving, 200 free relay, 400 medley relay

All 500 Free 200 IM 50 Free
Cal 6/4 2/1 2/3 2/0
Texas 3/5 1/2 1/3 1/0
Florida 3/4 2/2 0/1 1/1
Georgia 3/0 1/0 1/0 1/0
Arizona 2/0 1/0 1/0 0/0
Michigan 1/2 0/1 0/0 1/1
NC State 1/1 1/0 0/0 0/1
Georgia Tech 1/0 0/0 1/0 0/0
Mizzou 1/0 0/0 1/0 0/0
Texas A&M 1/0 0/0 1/0 0/0
Virginia Tech 1/0 0/0 0/0 1/0
Pittsburgh 1/0 0/0 0/0 1/0
Stanford 0/1 0/1 0/0 0/0
Notre Dame 0/1 0/1 0/0 0/0
Ohio State 0/1 0/0 0/1 0/0
Utah 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/1
LSU 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/1
Indiana 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/1
Virginia 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/1
Florida State 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/1

Day 2 SCORED PRELIMS

Not including: 1-meter diving, 200 free relay, 400 medley relay

Rank Team Day 2 Prelims
1 Cal 122
2 Florida 60
3 Texas 60
4 Georgia 50
5 Arizona 28.5
6 Michigan 19
7 Texas A&M 17
8 Georgia Tech 14.5
9 Virginia Tech 14
10 NC State 13
11 Mizzou 11.5
12 Pittsburgh 11
13 Notre Dame 9
14 LSU 9
15 Stanford 6
16 Indiana 5.5
17 Virginia 5.5
18 Ohio State 4.5
19 Utah 3
20 Florida State 2

DAY 2 SCORED PRELIMS BREAKDOWN BY EVENT

Cal Florida Texas Georgia Arizona Michigan Texas A&M GT VT NC State Mizzou PITT ND LSU Stanford Indiana UVA Ohio State Utah Florida St
500 Free 33 35 21 20 17 2 0 0 0 12 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
200 IM 53 3 27 13 11.5 0 17 14.5 0 0 11.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.5 0 0
50 Free 36 22 12 17 0 17 0 0 14 1 0 11 0 9 0 5.5 5.5 0 3 2

 

SCORED PRELIMS + CURRENT SCORES

Not including: 1-meter diving, 200 free relay, 400 medley relay

Rank Team Projected Total Day 2 Prelims Day 1 Actual
1 Cal 156 122 34
2 Texas 100 60 40
3 Florida 90 60 30
4 Georgia 76 50 26
5 Texas A&M 49 17 32
6 NC State 41 13 28
7 Arizona 38.5 28.5 10
8 Michigan 31 19 12
9 Stanford 30 6 24
10 Virginia Tech 28 14 14
11 Indiana 23.5 5.5 18
12 Louisville 22 0 22
13 Mizzou 15.5 11.5 4
14 Georgia Tech 14.5 14.5 0
15 Virginia 13.5 5.5 8
16 Pittsburgh 11 11 0
17 Notre Dame 11 9 2
18 Ohio State 10.5 4.5 6
19 LSU 9 9 0
20 Utah 3 3 0
20 Florida State 2 2 0

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I still miss Gregg Troy
6 months ago

I’m gonna be waiting all night to see hopefully two teams under 3 in the 4 med

bobthebuilderrocks
Reply to  I still miss Gregg Troy
6 months ago

Yeah, honestly the race will be pretty wild I think. I’m thinking back to 2015-2016 with how close the Texas/Cal battles were, I’m thinking something close or even better than those two races.

ACC
6 months ago

Looks like Texas gained 11.5 over their seeded score, Cal gained 34. If the rest of the meet goes as seeded (it won’t) Cal will score 50.5 more than Texas is the swimming events. Could have a nail-biter on our hands.

ACC
Reply to  ACC
6 months ago

Okay, looks like Texas went 3-4-14 in the diving prelims, which shakes out to 34 points. If it’s the same on all 3 (again, it won’t be), then Texas will score 102 points in diving.

In the swim events, Cal has moved up 30%, while Texas has moved up 13%. Over the whole meet that would give Cal 583 points to Texas’ 477. Throw in the diving and that’s 583-579.

Taa
Reply to  ACC
6 months ago

Cal is +62 in 3 swimming events. That my friends is an ass whooping.

SwimFani
Reply to  Taa
6 months ago

It looks like Texas is up on Cal by 35 points in diving which is an ass whooping as well

Taa
Reply to  SwimFani
5 months ago

If you don’t even show up to the fight does it still count as an ass whooping? Its more like a forfeit.

ACC
Reply to  Taa
5 months ago

Well, Cal had more entries this morning in swimming and Texas had more entries in diving. So if not having as many entries means it’s a forfeit then I guess Texas “forfeited” the swimming part too.

Coach Chackett
Reply to  Taa
5 months ago

Reminds me of baseline budgeting. Up from a fake sandbagged prescoring.

Coach Rob
6 months ago

Cool. *Scrolls*

Doesn’t matter what the score is on paper, let’s let the swimming do the talking!

Sun Yangs Hammer
Reply to  Coach Rob
6 months ago

wut

Former Big10
Reply to  Sun Yangs Hammer
6 months ago

I love how swimswam selectively moderates comments, and somehow this guy’s troll account makes it through. zzz…

Coach Rob
Reply to  Former Big10
6 months ago

I don’t understand how I’m trolling? Meets are not swam on paper, they’re swam in the pool. Everyone who downvoted me must be a mathlete and not an athlete.

KSchwim
Reply to  Coach Rob
5 months ago

Well that doesn’t give us much to overanalyze now does it Coach Rob

Tomek
6 months ago

Texas added 2 up 1 down in 1 meter platform

PK Doesn't Like His Long Name
Reply to  Tomek
6 months ago

I know we are pretty hard on diving here, but I just want to say that 1 meter platform would be the WORST event ever.

DMSWIM
Reply to  PK Doesn't Like His Long Name
6 months ago

I feel like there would be four dives–front dive, back dive, single front flip, and single back flip.

JP input is too short
Reply to  DMSWIM
6 months ago

Imagine the DD for a double flip.

Bay City Tex
Reply to  DMSWIM
5 months ago

It would make the dives with handstands very interesting!

Tomek
Reply to  Tomek
6 months ago

B final did not help Texas much last place 1 point

JP input is too short
Reply to  Tomek
6 months ago

UT with a 7 and a 16 so lots of room to move up there, Cal with 2 1s so lot of room to move down – not that I expect Hoffer to end up anywhere but the top after that morning swim.

Camelboar
Reply to  JP input is too short
5 months ago

I agree, let’s see what happens tonight. if Cal has a bad night that could mean trouble considering these predictions are based on their guys staying in the top spots.

swimapologist
Reply to  Camelboar
5 months ago

Yeah, but if Texas has a bad night that means the meet is over.

Horninco
6 months ago

End of Day 2: texas 216 Cal 225

I had predicted 205-239 before the meet, and had Texas winning by 2. So ahead of schedule from my end.

BearlyBreathing
6 months ago

– Who leads off Cal’s 400 MR?
– Who besides Hoffer and Seeliger on their 200 FR?

J Ryan
Reply to  BearlyBreathing
6 months ago

Nate Biondi and Daniel Carr

Psufan
6 months ago

Up votes if you think Kibler swims 200 free relay, downvotes if he skips it to focus on the 500

Camelboar
Reply to  Psufan
5 months ago

Fun question, Kibler took his 500 out in 1:36. Does anyone think he slowed down intentionally in the last 200 yards where he went 26’s, or did he die?

Horninco
Reply to  Camelboar
5 months ago

Hopefully he backed off!!

PsychoDad
6 months ago

All I know I already had two minor heart attacks (after Katz and Kibler’s swims) and we are not even half way. Texas needs relays and divers to show up, or else…

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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