2016 M. NCAA Picks: Barring DQs, It’s All NC State in 200 Free Relay

2016 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

200 FREESTYLE RELAY

  • NCAA record: 1:14.08 — Auburn — 3/26/2009
  • American record: 1:15.26 — Stanford — 3/24/2011
  • U.S. Open record: 1:14.08 — Auburn — 3/26/2009
  • 2015 NCAA Champion: Texas — 1:15.86

The NC State Wolfpack, who were expected to win the 200 free relay last year only to end up disqualifying on an early take off in finals, have quite possibly assembled their strongest squad yet in 2016. The improvement of sophomore Ryan Held along with VT transfer Joe Bonk filling in for the graduated David Williams make for a dominant pairing with upperclassmen regulars Soeren Dahl and Simonas Bilis.

They went 1:15.65 at ACCs, the only team under 1:18 in that final. Bilis and Held, with respective best times of 18.91 and 18.92, are now the two fastest 50 freestylers to come out of the ACC ever.

Last year, only Texas broke 1:16 in the finals (though NC State would likely have been under 1:16 as well if they hadn’t DQ’d), and Kip Darmody graduated from that relay. Cal and Auburn finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, but Cal lost half of its relay to graduation. It’ll help to have Ryan Murphy back, after they didn’t have him at Pac-12s, but the Golden Bears and the rest of the Pac-12 won’t be the big guns in this relay.

Auburn, meanwhile, has seen the rise of sophomore Peter Holoda, who’s provided big splits for them all year. They also return their entire relay from last year, and swapping in Arthur Mendes for Jacob Molacek might give them enough for an extra few tenths drop at NCAAs.

The SEC is going to be quick at NCAAs. Thanks to Caeleb Dressel and his potential sub-18 split, Florida is the team to beat for second. While they don’t have four legs right around the 19.0 mark, they got a very substantial 19.05 anchor from Jack Blyzinskyj at SECs, and Corey Main‘s 19.42 lead-off wasn’t too bad, either. Even if Dressel does put up a wild split, the Gators are going to need the other three legs to pull their weight if they’re going to hold onto 2nd. Meanwhile, SEC sprint school Alabama still has plenty of power, anchored by Kristian Gkolomeev. They added sophomore Laurent Bams to the relay, but they’ll need more from their three legs not named Kristian if they’re going to place in the top three.

Texas, last year’s champions, are much better altogether than the 1:17.10 they went at Big 12s. Whether or not they choose to put Jack Conger in the mix, it’s hard to believe Joe SchoolingJohn MurrayBrett Ringgold, and Tate Jackson won’t be pushing for a top three finish.

Meanwhile, Big Ten stalwarts Michigan and Indiana will be vying for top 8 spots as well. IU has found a new 50 free school record holder in Egyptian sophomore Ali Khalafalla, while Blake Pieroni adds some star power to their quartet. Michigan finished about four tenths behind IU at Big Tens, but with 50 free conference record-setter Paul Powers and freestyle weapon Anders Nielsen, they should have a solid relay at NCAAs, too.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS

SCHOOL SEED TIME
NC State 1:15.65
Florida 1:16.46
Texas 1:17.10
Auburn 1:16.63
Alabama 1:16.82
Michigan 1:17.38
Indiana 1:16.93
Cal 1:17.89


Dark Horse: Missouri quietly placed 4th at SECs with a 1:17.89, but they have an ace up their sleeve in Michael Chadwick. The Tigers have a solid supporting cast around him, but he needs to show up and in a much bigger way than he did at SECs. They were a touch faster at their November taper meet (1:17.54), suggesting that they may have trained through SECs.

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Goswim
8 years ago

I think nc state has a good shot, but don’t count UNC out. They could easily have 4 guys under 19

Bamafan123
8 years ago

And if they wanted Kristain as an anchor, he has a very possible shot at a 17

Bamafan123
8 years ago

I see Alabama taking a shot at it this year. Gkolomeev was 18.2 relay last year, Kaliszak was 19.0, Brett Walsh was 18.8, and they have a new sprinter that went 19.5 at SEC’s. He can definitely dip below 19. Im guessing if kristian starts it he can start with an 18.3, followed by 18.7, 18.7, and 18.9. Thats a 1:14.6, definitely good enough for a win methinks.

frank
Reply to  Bamafan123
8 years ago

Is that a joke? You know not everyone gets a relay start right? not to mention 2 of those 4 tend to like to go past 15 every chance they get. I can see Laurent Bams dropping under 19 but there is no way Walsh is going to pull enough weight for the win

FREEDOM
8 years ago

Jacob Molacek split 18.6 last year for the tigers

completelyconquered
8 years ago

I wouldn’t dare say that this relay is all NC State. Texas has 7 swimmers they can use between prelims and finals for this relay. They also can put together a combination of swimmers that can go under 1:15.

Chris
Reply to  completelyconquered
8 years ago

Agree 100%. Depending on who’s hot, it’s very easy to imagine Texas with a 19.0 leadoff and 3 guys averaging 18.6, leading to a time threatening 1:15.00.

SamH
8 years ago

Honestly, do not count Florida out. Lol I can’t believe I am talking about Florida and the 200 free relay. Seriously though. None of there top guys were rested at SECs and they still had two guys splitting 19.0.

I say they put the order as Dressel, Szranak (Spelling?), Main, Blyzinski. Here is the reasoning: Szranak, is the weakest of the group and having him go right after Caeleb, he will never have cleaner water than that. Then put next best guy to help provide a little space again, then close it with a strong enough sprinter. I could see: 18.2, 19.2, 18.65, 18.85= 1:14.9. I think that should be good enough for the win.

Plus I honestly believe… Read more »

ct swim fan
Reply to  SamH
8 years ago

Are you actually saying Caeleb Dressel was not rested at SECs and did the times he did? Sorry, not buying that at all. If that were fact he would have been doing those times all year.

SamH
Reply to  ct swim fan
8 years ago

Lol, no I am not saying he was not rested. What fool would suggest that? All I am saying is that he said he was not FULLY rested, as well as unshaven.

Bobthebuilderrocks
8 years ago

Remember this everyone, Texas wins.

Bryant
8 years ago

Isn’t NCAAs in short course meters this year?

Admin
Reply to  Bryant
8 years ago

Bryant – no, it’s yards.

About Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon studied sociology at Wesleyan University in Middletown, CT, graduating in May of 2018. He began swimming on a club team in first grade and swam four years for Wesleyan.

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