Day 2 Top Storylines:
1) Young versus Old- Natalie Coughlin has been there, done that. Having established herself as one of the best backstrokers at any age, Coughlin is a wily old vet (and one of the oldest women in the meet). Liz Pelton is trying to establish herself as the next great USA-Swimming backstroker, and at only 17 is a full decade younger than Coughlin. After taking some time off after Beijing, Coughlin seems to be back with a fire, but will experience or youth win in the day’s first event: the 100 back? The top 3 seeds in this event are 16-16-17.
2) The Massiveness of the Men’s 100 back- Even without Michael Phelps (this is an event he has swum in the past), it can not be overstated how epic the Men’s 100m backstroke will be. At the top of the heap are Thoman and Piersol, two world record holders. But in the pack will be NCAA Champ Eugene Godsoe and former champ Matt “the Monster” Grevers, NCAA 200y champ Cory Chitwood, 50m specialist Randall Bal who had a heartbreaking final at the 2008 Olympic Trials, Austin Ringquist who will represent the USA at the inaugaral Youth Olympics, and on and on. The list doesn’t end. Lochte will likely drop this event to focus on grabbing a relay spot in the 200 free.
3) First Taste of Phelps- Michael Phelps, who has been publicly disappointed in his performances thus far this season, will hit the water for the first time on Day 2 of the meet. Assuming everything goes smoothly, he should be expecting a double victory in the 200m free and the 200m fly, which is his signature event of the meet.
4) First Relay Spots Awarded- The men’s and women’s 200m freestyles will award the first relay spots for the upcoming Pan Pac Championships. Remember, the top 4 in these events get automatic passes to Pan-Pacs.
Predictions (in meet order)-
Women’s 100 back
- Natalie Coughlin
- Liz Pelton
- Missy Franklin
I think that Natalie Coughlin has another year in her as the country’s premier backstroker, and takes the win. Liz Pelton, despite disappointingly not making the A-final in the 200 IM yesterday, should bounce back strong in this race. Missy Franklin, who is the next Liz Pelton (who is the next Natalie Coughlin), made the A-final in the 200 IM yesterday, and has a chance to do something special at only 15 years old. The top 3 seeds in this event (Rachel Bootsma, Pelton, and Franklin) are 16-16-15 years of age, followed by the 27 year old Coughlin, and the 17 year old Elizabeth Beisel. That’s a serious juxtapasition.
Men’s 200 free
- Michael Phelps
- Peter Vanderkaay
- Ryan Lochte
- Dave Walters
- Ricky Berens
- Michael Klueh
Breakdown: Phelps gets his first action in Irvine in this event, and I don’t think anyone challenges him. Vanderkaay has been having an outstanding year. I’ve moved Lochte up in this race based on his performance last night in the 400 IM. Walters hasn’t swam that well in season, but as usual he will have a huge taper. Any doubt where the 2 best middle-distance free programs in the country are? Out of my top 6, 2 have ties to Club Wolverine, and 3 have ties to Longhorn Aquatics.
Men’s 100 back
- Matt Grevers
- Nick Thoman
- Aaron Piersol
Breakdown: Yes, that’s right, I left 2-time defending Olympic gold medalist Aaron Piersol in 3rd place. At some point, the world is going to catch up to him, and with how deep this field is, now is as good of a time as any for that. I’m pretty confident that these 3 will be the medalists, in some order, although it’s really as much of a crap shoot as this meet will see on the men’s side.
Women’s 200 free
- Katie Hoff
- Ariana Kukors
- Dagny Knutson
- Allison Schmitt
- Chloe Sutton
- Dana Vollmer
Breakdown: Dana Vollmer and Allison Schmitt are the top 2 seeds, and the hugely popular choices here. I, however, think that Hoff showed on Day 1 that she is in top form after moving to train with FAST, and pulls off the win here. In fact, out of all of her events, this is the one that I expect the least from Vollmer on. Kukors is sort of a shot-in-the-dark, and Knutson has to step up at some point and prove that she’s ready to go pro. This distance is a little short for Sutton to really show off in, but she should still make the A-final.
Men’s 200 fly
- Michael Phelps
- Tyler Clary
- Robert Bollier
Breakdown: This is a race for second place, as it would take something immensely spectacular to knock him off. Clary, long the star of the IM races, is really stepping up his game in the other middle-distance events. I like Bollier to take third in this event, which I expect to go very closely according to seed at the top. Number 4 Daniel Medwed was disappointing yesterday in the 400 free. I really wanted to find a reason to slide Mark Dylla into that third spot, but he just hasn’t shown me much to be excited about this summer after he lost the NCAA title on a 2-hand touch DQ.
