All NCAA swimming events on the women’s side have seen the cutlines get much faster in the last decade. “Swimflation” one may call it with the 100 back seeing a 2.44% change in time.
Some events have seen a sharper increase than others but none of the times this year are slower than they were in 2015. This year’s cutline fell one line into row 38 while 2015 saw all but one swimmer in row 39 invited.
2015 vs 2025 Cutline
| EVENT (SCY) | 2015 Invite Time | 2025 Invite Time |
Change In Percent
|
| 50 free | 22.39 | 22.01 | 1.70% |
| 100 free | 48.88 | 48.11 | 1.58% |
| 200 free | 1:45.94 | 1:44.74 | 1.13% |
| 500 free | 4:42.73 | 4:39.47 | 1.15% |
| 1650 free | 16:17.36 | 16:09.37 | 0.82% |
| 100 fly | 52.79 | 51.87 | 1.74% |
| 200 fly | 1:56.92 | 1:55.82 | 0.94% |
| 100 back | 52.97 | 51.68 | 2.44% |
| 200 back | 1:54.63 | 1:53.31 | 1.15% |
| 100 breast | 1:00.68 | 59.51 | 1.93% |
| 200 breast | 2:11.23 | 2:09.58 | 1.26% |
| 200 IM | 1:58.13 | 1:56.69 | 1.22% |
| 400 IM | 4:12.11 | 4:09.53 | 1.02% |
When comparing the 100s, it is clear that the 100 backstroke has had the biggest jump when comparing the two years as the cutline got faster by 2.44 percent. Further data though shows that this jump primarily happened from 2024 to 2025 as the cutline went from a 52.28 to a 51.68.
This year’s 100 backstroke cutline was so fast that it is faster than the 100 butterfly. Although the 200 back has typically seen a faster cutline than the 200 fly, it is rare that the backstroke cutline is faster in the 100.
The 1650 free saw the smallest progression in the last decade while this year provided the biggest drop as the cutline fell five and a half seconds from a year ago. The 1650 free notably saw its invite time slower in 2020 and 2021 than it was in 2015, but more recent years have caused its progression.
The 200 fly was the only other event that improved by less than one percent as it has gotten faster by 0.94% dropping 1.1 seconds in 10 years.
2020-2025 Cutline
| EVENT (SCY) | 2020 INVITE TIME | 2021 INVITE TIME | 2022 INVITE TIME | 2023 INVITE TIME | 2024 Invite time | 2025 Invite Time |
| 50 free | 22.21 | 22.32 | 22.16 | 22.15 | 22.11 | 22.01 |
| 100 free | 48.51 | 48.76 | 48.44 | 48.37 | 48.34 | 48.11 |
| 200 free | 1:45.23 | 1:46.25 | 1:45.42 | 1:45.31 | 1:44.80 | 1:44.74 |
| 500 free | 4:41.20 | 4:44.77 | 4:43.08 | 4:41.09 | 4:41.19 | 4:39.47 |
| 1650 free | 16:17.45 | 16:25.47 | 16:16.47 | 16:13.73 | 16:14.82 | 16:09.37 |
| 100 back | 52.73 | 53.01 | 52.46 | 52.36 | 52.28 | 51.68 |
| 200 back | 1:53.99 | 1:55.05 | 1:53.97 | 1:53.94 | 1:54.01 | 1:53.31 |
| 100 breast | 59.98 | 1:00.12 | 59.87 | 59.73 | 59.75 | 59.51 |
| 200 breast | 2:10.12 | 2:10.37 | 2:09.15 | 2:09.68 | 2:09.55 | 2:09.58 |
| 100 fly | 52.34 | 52.7 | 52.35 | 52.20 | 51.88 | 51.87 |
| 200 fly | 1:56.06 | 1:57.42 | 1:56.14 | 1:55.92 | 1:55.88 | 1:55.82 |
| 200 IM | 1:57.31 | 1:57.62 | 1:56.85 | 1:56.90 | 1:57.03 | 1:56.69 |
| 400 IM | 4:10.39 | 4:13.19 | 4:11.60 | 4:11.36 | 4:10.74 | 4:09.53 |
The average time improvement was 1.39%.
How much have the NCAA records improved in that same period (pre- 2015 NCAA champs to pre 2025 NCAA)?
I wonder how much 2025 is an outlier with all the 5th years. Once that ends after this year, and the roster limitations kick in, will the invite times regress a bit?