2013 US Trials Previews: Ledecky Improving, Can She Make a Run at Franklin?

The American women won the 800 free relay at the 2012 Summer Olympics with some ease over the Australians, but with that Aussie relay being very deep, and seeming very focused, it’s far from a runaway for the 2013 World Championship. That makes this American qualifying for relay spots much more important than it might have been last year.

The Americans will still probably have the best 800 free relay foursome in finals on paper; they certainly have the best two-some in the world with Olympic Champion Allison Schmitt and Missy Franklin.

Dana Vollmer has flipped back-and-forth on this 200 free over the last few years. In 2012, she came in 3rd at Trials, but hasn’t raced the event since her Olympic relay swim, and isn’t entered in the event at this year’s Trials. 

Katie Ledecky, with some serious newfound speed (she was 1:56.93 in Mesa), looks like the only one who could seriously knock off Schmitt or Franklin for the individual spots, especially with the race coming at the beginning of the meet’s second day, meaning that nobody should be too fatigued just yet. Ledecky will have the toughest schedule coming in, with the 800 to contend with on day 1, but regardless, her speed seems to be the key to the Americans holding on to gold in Barcelona without Vollmer.

After those top three, though, the other three potential spots for a relay become very interesting (remember that with roster limits and 50 meter stroke selections this year, top 6 in the freestyles are far from guaranteed to go to Worlds).

Vollmer, even without swimming the race this year at all, is still plenty good enough to show up at Trials cold turkey and stick a top-6 swim in the event. Aside from her, the other three Olympic swimmers, Lauren Perdue, Shannon Vreeland, and Alyssa Anderson were all fairly young. Anderson is done swimming, as she’s moved to Atlanta and taken a job for Coca-Cola.

Vreeland and Perdue finished their collegiate seasons in March with opposite performances. Perdue’s only individual scoring swim at NCAA’s was a 10th-place finish in the 200 free. Vreeland had a very good close, coming up 4th, and dropped almost a second from her finals swim the year prior as a sophomore.

Perdue had elbow surgery this week to fix a torn tendom, so she’s out for Trials.

The challengers have grown exponentially this year. Aside from Ledecky, who will almost surely have herself a relay spot at least, there’s two familiar names who are swimming much better. Megan Romano is training with Allison Schmitt and Bob Bowman at NBAC, which can only help her in this race. She’s been 2:01.0 as recently as Santa Clara, which is a good but not great time, but she should have been on this relay last year were it not for a stumble in finals (she was 4th in a 1:57.99 coming out of semis).

Liz Pelton, a former NBAC swimmer now training at Cal, didn’t swim this race at Trials last year, but swam a lifetime best at Santa Clara in 1:58.52 – the first time she’d gone a lifetime best in the event in years.

There’s a ton of youth in this race as well. Terrapins Swim Team’s Chelsea Chenault swam at Junior Pan Pacs and swam very well for a 1:58.19 – better than she was at Trials, and a time that would’ve made the Olympic Team if done in Omaha. Stanford-bound Lia Neal has been 1:58.26, which also would’ve made the Olympic Team if she’d done it in 2012 (though she was already on the roster in the 100).

The latest big-time newcomer, and another under the time for an Olympic relay, is Quinn Carrozza, who at the Senior Circuit meet in College Station, Texas two weeks ago was a 1:58.36 at just 16 years old. Her best event is probably still the 200 back, but this 200 free might be her most immediate opportunity for Worlds.

So, moral of the story, it’s going to take a better time to make Barcelona than it did to make London. Even if all 6 are invited, I’d guess no slower than 1:57.9 makes the relay.

Texas A&M’s Sarah Henry, like Perdue, didn’t have a great end to her 2012-2013 college season, but like Perdue she knows she swam very well last summer when coming off of an injury.

Texas’ Karlee Bispo was a great 200 freestyler in college, but in long course seems to be developing more into a 200 IM’er. Still, with a best of 1:59.0, she’s in the hunt. She’s been a 2:02.5 as a best so far in 2013.

There’s a few other 1:58’s to be considered, including Leah Smith of the Jewish Community Center, though her best chances are probably in the slightly longer 400 and 800 meter distances; and as goes Jasmine Tosky’s meet, as goes her potential in this 200 free, as she’ll have to do better overall than a few flat championship performances in the last year if she wants to get into this final and have a chance. Catherine Breed is coming off a much more recent, though similar, injury to Sarah Henry’s, but is still entered in the meet.

Top 8 picks are below, including best times from January 1, 2010 onward.