Which Super-Suited Records Can Be Broken? Tier 3

We are nearing the ten-year anniversary of the most ridiculous technology-aided amazing display of world record breaking swimming the world has ever seen. Over the course of a week, a total of 43 world records (in 31 unique events) were broken in Rome. How significant is that? There have only been 48 world records set at the Olympics or World Championships in the 10 years since. As we near the end of the first post super-suit decade there are still 15 super suit records on the books, including a few set in Beijing and also a handful that were squeezed in during the fall of 2009 as the super-suit ban approached. Some of these records have had close calls over the years, while others still have an untouchable feel to them a decade or more later.

We are entering a 24-month period that will see three high-level international swim meets; 2019 Worlds in Gwangju, the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and the 2021 Worlds in Fukuoka. These three meets each give us a very high potential for world-record breaking swims, hopefully putting to bed some of these super- suited records that many of us would love to turn the page on.

I have done a deep dive into the data of the past ten years of swimming in the 15 events that still have super-suited records hovering over them. For individual events, I mined the fastest 200 times in each event since the suits were banned. For the relay records I only used the top 50 times for reasons explained later. While using the top 200 times in the last decide does not afford us a chronological view of the progression of times (as a group or individually) towards the respective records, it does allow us to see how the very best swimmers/swims in the past decade have fared in relation to the record, allowing us to gauge both the significance of the current record as well as how the swimming world as a whole may be closing in on it.

Using these top times from the past decade of non-super-suited swims in addition to the existing world record, we can see a very clear picture of just how significant those records are in relation to the historical data since. Statistics were calculated, graphs were made……. and with a little of my own opinions and bias sprinkled in I have ranked the 15 world records in order of how likely they are to being (or not being) broken in the next three years. As a statistical note, standard deviations are typically used to measure how far a value is from the mean value (ex: A SAT test score was 1.2 standard deviations above the mean) but here I use them to compare how far a particular swimmer is from the world record, which is obviously the minimum value. This method is a tad unorthodox, but this allows us to
compare the relative likelihood of records being broken across different distances, genders and disciplines.

As it is, I have broken the existing records into four tiers. Within each tier I feel legitimate arguments can be made for the swapping of event rankings, but I have gone ahead and ranked them 1-15 for the purpose of linearity and (of course) a spirited comments section. I wrote all of these with great care and spent hours doing research. If I have missed your favorite up and coming swimmer with huge potential, or missed a swim in the transfer of data from FINA.org, you have my sincere apologies. I also acknowledge that crazy stuff happens and we may see an out of this world swim by any swimmer at any time, but those are really tough to anticipate and to account for in this format. I am not always trying to estimate if a particular swimmer is capable of breaking the record, but rather just the likelihood of the record being broken at all. By someone. Soon. One final note, this is not meant as a prediction of who will win any particular event in Gwangju or Tokyo, simply a general records discussion. So, without
further ado and from least likely to be broken to most likely, let’s dive in and go for a swim.

Tier 4 (Read Here)

Tier 3

Tier 3: Records that could fall soon, but I just wouldn’t advise running to Vegas with your mortgage check.

In my research there were reasonably clear delineations between tiers, either because of the time gaps or the lack of semi-current swimmers near the record.  This next tier had swimmers within 1-2 standard deviations of the record or had swimmers still active that could reasonably be expected to improve. For example, I don’t think Sun Yang has enough growth potential left to get either of the records listed above, but a swimmer like Kristof Milak is a similar number of standard deviations from the world record in the 200 Fly but has much more potential room for improvement given his age and current trajectory.

Number 12: Women’s 200 Free- Pelligrini; 1:52.98

The data:  The 200 fastest swims since 2009 have a mean of 115.52 seconds (1:55.52) with a standard deviation of 0.52 seconds.

This record was broken 7 times in less than 2 years, dropping 3.7 seconds off the previous record.   At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it took 30 years to drop the previous 3.7 seconds. Since 2009, a few swimmers have come reasonably close to breaking the record.  USA’s Allison Schmitt came the closest back in London (1.2 standard deviations away), more recently Katie Ledecky (1.43 away), Sarah Sjoestroem (2.1 away) and Ariane Titmus (2.53 away) have come close.  This event is likely too short for Ledecky to challenge the record and too long for Sjoestroem. Ariane Titmus is just 18 though, and she may be the one to give this record the threat it needs. Given her development curve and youth it could even happen soon.  Taylor Ruck (19) also has plenty of time and a good developmental curve on her side and Emma McKeon is also in the conversation. The presence of young talent that is already approaching “outlier” status gives this record more hope than all the ones preceding it.

Number 11: Men’s 400 Free- Paul Biedermann; 3:40.07

The data:  The 200 fastest swims since 2009 have a mean of 224.69 seconds (3:44.69) with a standard deviation of 1.26 seconds.   

Much like the 200 free record, the absurdity of Biedermann’s time is further emphasized by the fact that he never went below 3:44.14 ever again, much like he never swam faster than a 1:44.88 after 2009 in the 200 Free.  Biedermann also had the audacity to negative split this race at 1:51/1:49! Unlike the 200, this event has seen much more progress culminating in Sun Yang coming within 0.07 seconds and 0.055 standard deviations of back in London.  Even more frustrating for Sun Yang (speculating of course) is that he breathed every stroke into the wall and lifted his head as he finished. (Take notes kids!!). Since then Sun Yang and Mack Horton in recent years have been right around one standard deviation off the record.  Horton was way off earlier this summer at Aussie trials, so was it a bad meet or sign of a decline? Gabriele Detti of Italy has been 3:43.36 this past April so he may have more drop left in him this summer. As mentioned in the 800, there is also young talent coming up in the ranks such as Keisuke Yoshida, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk.  

Number 10: Men’s 400 IM- Michael Phelps; 4:03.82

The data:  The 200 fastest swims since 2009 have a mean of 224.69 seconds (3:44.69) with a standard deviation of 1.26 seconds.   

The men’s 400 IM was lorded over by Michael Phelps for a 6-year period, dropping the record 8 different times at 8 different meets.  When Phelps arrived on the scene the record stood at 4:11.76, and when the dust finally settled at the Water Cube the clock stopped at 4:03.84.  Phelps never took the event seriously in the intervening years before trying to recapture glory in London only to finish off the podium. Ryan Lochte took the mantle and came within a second and a half in London but never closer.  Kosuke Hagino took the reins for a few years but has never broken 4:06. So why is this event ranked #6? Chase. Kalisz. Chase has taken 4 seconds off his best time since the 2016 Olympic Trials with a personal best of 4:05.90 in Budapest.  This requires a bit of projection, but at 25 years of age Chase likely knows that the 2019-2021 window represents his last reasonable shot at the record and Olympic Gold. Two seconds in this event isn’t anything to casually overlook, but at only 1.37 standard deviations away Chase has one of the better shots at a record as any swimmer on this list with one notable exception.

Number 9: Men’s 200 Fly- Michael Phelps; 1:51.51

The data:  The 200 fastest swims since 2009 have a mean of 114.58 seconds (1:54.18) with a standard deviation of 0.6 seconds

Unlike the previous records being discussed, this record came about in a slightly more organic progression.  Phelps dropped this record by roughly 3.6 seconds over an eight-year span, never taking more than 0.65 seconds off the previous record other than 1.62 second drop between February and March of 2007.  His 2009 record was a half second drop from his “just count the strokes” swim in Beijing. No other swimmer came within 2.5 standard deviations of that record in the following decade other than Phelps, Chad LeClos and Laszlo Cseh.  Then a young Hungarian named Kristof Milak burst onto the scene in 2017. Milak is still young (19) and making steady progress. He swam the fastest time since 2009 last year (1:52.71, just 2.01 standard deviations away from the record) and was 1:53.19 this spring.  Again, I wouldn’t bet money on this record going down this summer or next, but if it does Milak is your man. Cseh didn’t even make the Hungarian team in this event and LeClos peaked in this event back in 2012. Daiya Seto (JPN) and Tamas Kenderesi also have had strong swims the past few years but don’t have the same curve as Milak.  

Number 8: Men’s 200 Back- Aaron Peirsol; 1:51.92

The data:  The 200 fastest swims since 2009 have a mean of 115.06 seconds (1:55.06) with a standard deviation of 0.74 seconds

Peirsol and Ryan Lochte took just under two seconds off this record over the course 7 years before Peirsol took almost a second off the record at 2009 Worlds trials and then over a second off that new mark a few weeks later in Rome.  That was a staggering 2.02 second drop in the span of three weeks! Had Peirsol retired in 2008, Lochte would have broken his own mark in 2011 with his 1:52.96 in Shanghai. As it is that swim still stands as the second fastest ever and is 1.4 standard deviations off the world record.

Other than Lochte, only Mitch Larkin (AUS) and Evgeny Rylov (RUS) remain active swimmers that have come within two standard deviations of the world record.  Larkin’s 1:53.17 in 2015 was 1.7 standard deviations from the record and Rylov was 1.95 standard deviations away last year at 21 years of age. Notably, Ryan Murphy fired off a PB of 1:53.36 in 2018 which was 2.24 standard deviations away and it would not be wise to write him off despite being better suited to the 100.  Finally, rising Russian Kliment Kolesnikov set a World Junior Record in 2017 with a 1:55.16 that is nothing noteworthy by itself, but it does provide some possibility of growth in the future. Kliment does seem to favor the 100m distance showing great promise in the 100 back and free, as well as the SC 100 IM. He is still young though with time to develop that distance as he matures, although he dropped the event at worlds.  Between Kolesnikov, Murphy and Rylov there is plenty of youth and developmental curve left to go after Peirsol’s legendary record.

Tier 2 (Check Back Tomorrow!)

Tier 1 (coming soon)

About Charge Schmerker

Charge first got his feet wet at the age of 5 with the SugarLand Sharks in suburban Houston.  After swimming competitively through high school, he hung up his goggles to attend and eventually graduate from The University of Texas at Austin.  Although he swims now only swims for the exercise, he is still an avid fan of competitive swimming.

Charge is currently involved in educational consulting and teaches AP Statistics in Plano, TX.