What Would Happen If There Were NCAA Swimming Playoffs?

Courtesy: Jonah Hendricks

The idea of a new-form national championship in NCAA swimming is both exciting and frightening. This tournament, which we’ll call the NCAA Swimming Championship Series, would likely consist of 8-12 teams competing in dual meets over the course of a few weeks. The goal is to find the best pound-for-pound swim team in the nation. This tournament would replace the current four-day NCAA Championship meet, and instead, the winner of a playoff bracket will become the national champions. This idea has recently been gaining attention in the swimming community. Many personalities, athletes, and coaches have posted their thoughts on social media. Notably, swim commentator and social media personality Kyle Sockwell has promoted the idea on a few separate occasions. The USA Swimming affiliate posted an image of a hypothetical playoff bracket for men’s swimming this year. Herbie Behm, ASU’s innovative sprint coach, posted that image after the Sun Devil’s dual meet against Cal with a caption saying, “Could you imagine if we did this whole thing and it ended in a tie?” Many others have also hinted at the potential excitement that this tournament would bring.

So, will the NCAA just completely scratch the 2024 national swimming championships in favor of an entirely dissimilar idea? Likely not. However, we can still wonder about what would happen at this year’s inaugural, not going to happen, NCAA Swimming Championship Series. Let’s say that the NCAA adopted an eight-team bracket, with a couple play-in games to decide the last two teams. So, who’s going to be in this hypothetical tournament? Although there is no official ranking system, the NCAA uses the CSCAA Coach’s Poll to rank programs, so that’s what we’ll use for now, focusing on the men.

Note that the CSCAA polls are geared toward dual meet performance, while SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are based on how teams would fare in the traditional championship format.

The Bracket:

Play-In

• Play-In Game 1: (#7) vs. (#10)
• Play-In Game 2: (#8) vs. (#9)

First Round

• (#1) vs. Lowest Remaining Seed
• (#2) vs. 2nd Lowest Remaining Seed
• (#3) vs. (#6)
• (#4) vs. (#5)

Second Round

• Highest Remaining Seed vs Lowest Remaining Seed
• 2nd Highest Remaining Seed vs 2nd Lowest Remaining Seed

Championship Dual

• Last Two Remaining Teams

Now let’s get into the teams that will be competing in this year’s hypothetical NCAA Championship Swimming Series. Top-seeded ASU (10-0-1) has been on fire all year with the best dual meet resumé and most wins in the nation, and they have had control of the top seed in both the Pac-12 and NCAA using FINA points throughout the season. Next are the Cal Bears; the team has not competed much this year, only boasting a 3-0-1 dual meet record, but they have been fast and had depth every time they raced. The third seed will be NC State; the team, led by stars Kacper Stokowski and Quintin McCarty, has built a resumé of 6-1 against tough competition. Fourth into the playoffs is the University of Florida; they have gone a perfect 7-0 in the regular season and have all four of their 2023 record-breaking 400 free relay members returned. The fifth seed goes to Stanford (4-1); the team has a young roster that will only be improving over the next few years under head coach Dan Schemmel. Lastly, the Indiana Hoosiers enter the playoffs at No. 6; the top-ranked Big Ten team just capped off their first undefeated season in almost 20 years with a record of 8-0.

Before we go through the matchups, we need to set the rules. Firstly, this specific hypothetical tournament will be hosted just on the men’s side in this article; however, the women’s matchups would be just as exciting, if not more so. Every match is between two teams in an 18-event swim-only lineup (this is an increase from the traditional 14-swim event lineup). The meets will include all five relays, the 50 free, all four 100’s, all four 200’s, the 500 and 1650, and the 200 and 400 IM. Each meet will last approximately 2.5 hours, and the total number of points possible is 330.

The scoring is standard for NCAA dual meets: individual: 9-4-3-2-1, relay: 11-4-2. Each athlete may enter a maximum of five events (an increase from in-season dual meets), which can consist of a mixture of up to five relays and a maximum of three individual events. The lanes will be split four and four between each team; the higher-seeded team will have events and odds for the other team. This tournament will only replace the NCAA 4-day national meet, and it won’t replace any conference championships, which teams would still taper and suit up for in a bid to qualify for the playoffs.

As for the schedule of the tournament, the meets will be held over three separate weekends. The first weekend will be play-in games, the second weekend will be four quarterfinal matchups, and the last weekend will host both the semi-finals and finals. The two play-in games will be hosted by the higher-seeded team, and each of the quarterfinal meets will be hosted by the higher-seeded teams as well. However, the semi-finals and championship meets will be hosted in one pool over the course of one weekend.

For the play-in games of this imaginary tournament, the four teams will be UGA, Texas A&M, Texas, and Auburn. A team that is notably left out is the Tennessee Volunteers (2-3), who boast the 8th-best FINA points score. Nevertheless, the No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (5-3) will host the No. 10 Auburn Tigers (4-2), and the undefeated No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies (10-0) will host the No. 9 Texas Longhorns (3-3).

Using a meet simulator to predict the winners of each match, the Play-ins go as follows:

• (7) Georgia vs. (10) Auburn -> UGA 172, Auburn 157
• (8) Texas A&M vs. (9) Texas -> Texas 178, Texas A&M 151

Georgia is able to beat out Auburn for the 7th seed in the tournament, while Texas A&M, despite having the best record in Division 1 swimming, falls to their in-state rivals.

The next round features four dual meets with stiff competition that is projected as follows:

• (1) Arizona State vs. (9) Texas -> ASU 239, Auburn 93
• (2) Cal vs. (7) Georgia -> Cal 208, UGA 119
• (3) NC State vs. (6) Indiana -> NC State 181, Indiana 149
• (4) Florida vs. (5) Stanford -> UF 169, Stanford 163

ASU and Cal are able to easily roll past the play-in victors; however, it’s a different story for both NC State and Florida. The Florida Gators barely get a win against Stanford’s young roster, and NC State uses its distance dominance to outlast the Hoosiers. The semi-finals are now held at a neutral location and feature the top four teams in the nation, which is a recipe for dual meet excitement.

The projected results are as follows:

• (1) Arizona State vs (4) Florida -> ASU 229, UF 103
• (2) Cal vs (3) NC State -> Cal 190, NC State 140

The Sun Devils showed out against UF to take a very assertive victory in the semi-finals. Meanwhile, the Cal Bears show off their relay dominance and depth to claim a spot in the national championship meet. Now, it’s among the nearly universally deemed best programs in the sport. The two teams tied in a dual meet during the season; however, this time the event lineup is different. Will the added relays help Cal or ASU? And which team will be able to win without relying on diving?

The projected result is:

• (1) Arizona State vs (2) Cal -> ASU 209, Cal 123

The result is a decisive victory for the boys from Tempe. This would cap off the Sun Devil’s historic season and yield the program’s first-ever national championship title. This hypothetical inaugural NCAA Swimming Championship Series would be a thrilling end to the swim season, and it would yield a lot of excitement for the sport.

Yet, this is all hypothetical; the NCAA would have a lot of work ahead of them if they ever decided to go this route. There would be a lot of changes that would be required for this to occur, but we’ve seen crazier things happen, right? Comment below with your thoughts on the possibility of a dual meet tournament and if you think that something other than what’s projected would happen if we had one this year.

• Related: 29.3% Think NCAA Swimming Would Be More Exciting In Head-To-Head Format

ABOUT JONAH HENDRICKS

Originally from Tallahassee, FL, Jonah now swims and studies at Thomas University in south Georgia. He is a lover of all things sports and music. As a student, Jonah is studying literature and media, and as an athlete, he pursues excellence in the pool. In the future, Jonah hopes to have a career in journalism/broadcasting. When he is not writing, he loves to spend time fishing, playing outdoor sports, and reading.