SwimSwam Readers Predict NCAA Women’s D1 Championships

2019 WOMEN’S DIVISION I NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS

The concept of “the wisdom of the crowd” has existed since Aristotle. Let’s apply that wisdom to a swim meet. With the pick’em entries closed and the everyone’s entries now published we can take a look at what the sum of the SwimSwam readership thinks is going to happen.

There are no 100% unanimous favorites this year. Lilly King‘s 100 breast is the closest. She was picked first by 419 of 421 entries that filled out a 100 breast pick. Ella Eastin‘s 400 IM was the next most popular pick with 416 of 420 picks.

The most divisive individual event was the 500 free. The top picked swimmer there was Cierra Runge of Arizona St. Runge ended up with 38% of all 1st place picks. Lauren Pitzer of Stanford was next most popular with 29% of picks. Katie Drabot of Stanford (11%),  Courtney Harnish of Georgia  (10%), Joanna Evans of Texas (8%), Kirsten Jacobsen of Arizona (2%), Brooke Forde of Stanford (1%), and Ally McHugh of Penn State (1%) were also popular picks. There were 5 more athletes that were picked first at least once.

The most divisive relay was the 200 medley relay. The most popular pick there was Tennessee (40% 1st place picks), but Indiana (22%), Cal (17%), NC State (16%), Michigan (2%), and Stanford (2%) also got a decent number of first place picks as well.

The most popular 1st place pick in a relay was Cal in the 400 free relay. Cal was picked to win that event by 92% of entries.

A summary of the picks in each event is in the table below.

Picks Summary

0% means someone picked them, but it rounded to less than 1%. A blank means no one picked them in that position. Swimmers not listed weren’t picked anywhere in the top 4 by anyone.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
800 Free Relay Stanford 77% 21% 2% 0%
800 Free Relay California 23% 74% 3% 0%
800 Free Relay Tennessee 1% 0% 11% 18%
800 Free Relay Michigan 0% 3% 54% 20%
800 Free Relay Southern California 0% 11% 12%
800 Free Relay Texas A&M 2% 17% 38%
800 Free Relay Virginia 0% 1% 6%
800 Free Relay Texas 1% 3%
800 Free Relay North Carolina State 0% 1%
800 Free Relay Auburn 0%
800 Free Relay Louisville 1%
800 Free Relay Kentucky 1%
800 Free Relay Georgia 1%
200 Free Relay California 77% 18% 5% 0%
200 Free Relay North Carolina State 14% 29% 35% 14%
200 Free Relay Tennessee 6% 40% 25% 18%
200 Free Relay Texas 2% 7% 19% 27%
200 Free Relay Stanford 1% 4% 9% 13%
200 Free Relay Michigan 1% 2% 8% 21%
200 Free Relay Southern California 0%
200 Free Relay Louisville 0% 1% 3%
200 Free Relay North Carolina 0%
200 Free Relay Auburn 3%
500 Free Runge, Cierra; Arizona St 38% 21% 19% 11%
500 Free Pitzer, Lauren; Stanford 29% 35% 18% 11%
500 Free Drabot, Katherine; Stanford 11% 7% 6% 2%
500 Free Harnish, Courtney; Georgia 10% 18% 19% 20%
500 Free Evans, Joanna; Texas 8% 11% 20% 22%
500 Free Jacobsen, Kirsten; Arizona 2% 3% 6% 8%
500 Free Forde, Brooke; Stanford 1% 2% 2% 2%
500 Free McHugh, Allyson; Penn St 1% 1% 1%
500 Free Braswell, Leah; Florida 0% 1% 2% 5%
500 Free Stevens, Leah; Stanford 0% 1% 1% 1%
500 Free Tankersley, Morgan; Stanford 0% 1% 5%
500 Free Madden, Paige; Virginia 0% 0% 1%
500 Free Wright, Madison; Southern Cali 0%
500 Free Nack, Chantal; Minnesota 1% 2% 6%
500 Free Bi, Yirong; Michigan 1% 1% 3%
500 Free Moore, Kathleen; NC State 0%
500 Free Padington, Mackenzie; Minnesota 1% 1%
500 Free Pfeifer, Genevieve; Texas 0% 1%
500 Free Hines, Phoebe; Hawaii 0% 1%
500 Free Freriks, Geena; Kentucky 0% 0%
500 Free Byrnes, Megan; Stanford 0%
500 Free Holub, Tamila; NC State 0%
500 Free Luther, Dakota; Georgia 0%
500 Free Cox, Hannah; Arizona 1%
200 IM Eastin, Ella; Stanford 65% 5% 1% 1%
200 IM Pickrem, Sydney; Texas A&M 22% 50% 17% 7%
200 IM Small, Meghan; Tennessee 8% 26% 34% 18%
200 IM Nelson, Elizabeth; Wisconsin 2% 11% 16% 22%
200 IM Hansson, Louise; Southern Cali 1% 3% 10% 17%
200 IM Haughey, Siobhan; Michigan 1% 4% 18% 25%
200 IM Pearl, Vanessa; Florida 0% 0% 1%
200 IM King, Lillia; Indiana 0% 1% 1%
200 IM Vose, Kirsten; Southern Cali 0%
200 IM Seidt, Asia; Kentucky 1% 1% 1%
200 IM Andison, Bailey; Indiana 0% 1% 3%
200 IM Ivey, Isabel; California 1% 2%
200 IM Barksdale, Emily; South Carolina 0% 1%
200 IM Poole, Julia; NC State 0%
200 IM Darcel, Sarah; California 1%
50 Free Weitzeil, Abbigail; California 73% 25% 2%
50 Free Brown, Erika; Tennessee 23% 66% 9% 1%
50 Free Comerford, Mallory; Louisville 3% 7% 63% 15%
50 Free Perry, Ky-lee; NC State 0% 1% 8% 21%
50 Free TRANSOM, LATICIA-LEIGH; Southern Cali 0%
50 Free Hopkin, Anna; Arkansas 1% 11% 24%
50 Free Bilquist, Amy; California 1% 4% 24%
50 Free MacNeil, Margaret; Michigan 0% 2% 11%
50 Free Ariola, Grace; Texas 1% 2%
50 Free Hill, Morgan; Virginia 0% 1%
50 Free Alons, Kylee; NC State 0%
50 Free Ciesla, Marta; Southern Cali 0%
50 Free DeLoof, Catherine; Michigan 0%
50 Free Banic, Madeline; Tennessee 0%
400 Medley Relay California 62% 31% 6% 1%
400 Medley Relay Indiana 31% 37% 24% 5%
400 Medley Relay Michigan 2% 17% 39% 23%
400 Medley Relay Stanford 2% 7% 7% 10%
400 Medley Relay North Carolina State 1% 4% 12% 32%
400 Medley Relay Tennessee 1% 3% 8% 21%
400 Medley Relay Southern California 0% 1% 1%
400 Medley Relay Texas 1% 1% 1%
400 Medley Relay Louisville 0% 3% 6%
400 Medley Relay Texas A&M 0%
400 Medley Relay Virginia 0%
400 IM Eastin, Ella; Stanford 99% 1% 0% 0%
400 IM Forde, Brooke; Stanford 0% 61% 32% 5%
400 IM Pickrem, Sydney; Texas A&M 0% 34% 54% 7%
400 IM Pearl, Vanessa; Florida 0% 0% 1% 13%
400 IM Moore, Kathleen; NC State 0% 0% 1%
400 IM Anderson, Jordan; Utah 0%
400 IM Barksdale, Emily; South Carolina 4% 7% 37%
400 IM Andison, Bailey; Indiana 1% 4% 27%
400 IM Darcel, Sarah; California 1% 3%
400 IM Szekely, Alexandra; Stanford 1% 1%
400 IM McHugh, Allyson; Penn St 1% 1%
400 IM Gyorgy, Reka; Virginia Tech 0%
400 IM Cieplucha, Tessa; Tennessee 1%
400 IM Sheridan, Calypso; Northwestern 1%
400 IM Muzzy, Emma; NC State 1%
400 IM Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Monika; Texas A&M 0%
400 IM Stevens, Leah; Stanford 0%
400 IM Jahns, Anna; NC State 0%
100 Fly Hansson, Louise; Southern Cali 69% 22% 7% 1%
100 Fly MacNeil, Margaret; Michigan 19% 32% 37% 7%
100 Fly Brown, Erika; Tennessee 10% 40% 42% 7%
100 Fly McLaughlin, Kathryn; California 1% 5% 11% 61%
100 Fly Rule, Remedy; Texas 0% 1%
100 Fly Ivey, Isabel; California 0% 1% 4%
100 Fly Tetzloff, Alyssa; Auburn 0% 1% 3%
100 Fly Alons, Kylee; NC State 0%
100 Fly Oglesby, Grace; Louisville 0% 13%
100 Fly Hill, Morgan; Virginia 2%
100 Fly Ochitwa, Ann; Missouri 1%
100 Fly Burchill, Veronica; Georgia 1%
100 Fly Vereb, Joelle; Virginia Tech 0%
200 Free Comerford, Mallory; Louisville 82% 14% 2% 1%
200 Free Ruck, Taylor; Stanford 9% 33% 24% 18%
200 Free Haughey, Siobhan; Michigan 5% 31% 40% 14%
200 Free Weitzeil, Abbigail; California 3% 20% 21% 27%
200 Free DeLoof, Catherine; Michigan 0% 2% 8% 24%
200 Free McLaughlin, Kathryn; California 0% 3% 10%
200 Free TRANSOM, LATICIA-LEIGH; Southern Cali 0%
200 Free Pitzer, Lauren; Stanford 1% 0% 0%
200 Free Falconer, Erin; Auburn 0% 1%
200 Free Small, Meghan; Tennessee 0% 1%
200 Free Drabot, Katherine; Stanford 1% 2%
200 Free Harnish, Courtney; Georgia 0% 1%
200 Free Runge, Cierra; Arizona St 0% 0%
200 Free Madden, Paige; Virginia 0%
200 Free Neumann, Robin; California 1%
200 Free Dolan, Abigail; Notre Dame 0%
200 Free Evans, Joanna; Texas 0%
200 Free Freriks, Geena; Kentucky 0%
100 Breast King, Lillia; Indiana 100% 0%
100 Breast Tucker, Miranda; Michigan 0% 6% 13% 20%
100 Breast Vose, Kirsten; Southern Cali 0% 0%
100 Breast Hansson, Sophie; NC State 57% 25% 11%
100 Breast Belousova, Anna; Texas A&M 27% 30% 21%
100 Breast Popov, Nikol; Tennessee 7% 20% 23%
100 Breast Duncan, Delaney; Eastern Mich 1% 6% 12%
100 Breast Kozelsky, Lindsey; Minnesota 1% 3% 6%
100 Breast Scott, Riley; Southern Cali 0% 1% 0%
100 Breast Wenger, Alexis; Virginia 1% 2%
100 Breast Bartel, Zoe; Stanford 0% 1%
100 Breast Hulkko, Ida; Florida St 0% 1%
100 Breast Kansakoski, Silja; Arizona St 1%
100 Breast Peplowski, Noelle; Indiana 0%
100 Breast Spradley, Summer; LSU 0%
100 Breast Calegan, Olivia; NC State 0%
100 Breast Munson, Rachel; Minnesota 0%
100 Breast Bonnett, Bailey; Kentucky 0%
100 Breast Zhao, Grace; Stanford 0%
100 Back Nelson, Elizabeth; Wisconsin 86% 9% 3% 1%
100 Back Ruck, Taylor; Stanford 8% 40% 32% 12%
100 Back Bilquist, Amy; California 5% 33% 38% 19%
100 Back MacNeil, Margaret; Michigan 1% 15% 17% 40%
100 Back Haan, Elise; NC State 0% 3% 3% 2%
100 Back Seidt, Asia; Kentucky 0% 1% 2% 3%
100 Back Adams, Claire; Texas 0% 3% 9%
100 Back Dressel, Sherridon; Florida 2% 8%
100 Back Tetzloff, Alyssa; Auburn 1% 5%
100 Back Hynes, Haley; Missouri 0% 0%
100 Back Nordmann, Lucie; Stanford 0% 0%
100 Back Perry, Ky-lee; NC State 0%
200 Medley Relay Tennessee 40% 32% 15% 6%
200 Medley Relay Indiana 22% 27% 23% 15%
200 Medley Relay California 17% 14% 16% 17%
200 Medley Relay North Carolina State 16% 17% 27% 20%
200 Medley Relay Stanford 2% 5% 7% 9%
200 Medley Relay Michigan 2% 4% 10% 25%
200 Medley Relay Southern California 0% 1% 1%
200 Medley Relay Virginia 1% 1% 6%
200 Medley Relay Florida 1%
200 Medley Relay Texas 1%
200 Medley Relay Louisville 0%
1650 Free McHugh, Allyson; Penn St 67% 17% 5% 5%
1650 Free Stevens, Leah; Stanford 12% 21% 24% 20%
1650 Free Hines, Phoebe; Hawaii 12% 40% 21% 12%
1650 Free Runge, Cierra; Arizona St 6% 13% 23% 20%
1650 Free Kowal, Molly; Ohio St 1% 3% 12% 17%
1650 Free Braswell, Leah; Florida 1% 1% 2% 6%
1650 Free Byrnes, Megan; Stanford 1% 5% 9% 12%
1650 Free Evans, Joanna; Texas 1% 1% 2% 3%
1650 Free Holub, Tamila; NC State 0% 2%
1650 Free Jahns, Anna; NC State 0%
1650 Free McMahon, Kensey; Alabama 0%
1650 Free Tankersley, Morgan; Stanford 1%
1650 Free Cox, Hannah; Arizona 1% 1%
1650 Free Bi, Yirong; Michigan 0% 1%
1650 Free Schmidt, Sierra; Michigan 0% 0%
1650 Free Freriks, Geena; Kentucky 0%
1650 Free Sargent, Makayla; NC State 0%
1650 Free Jernberg, Cassandra; Indiana 1%
1650 Free Padington, Mackenzie; Minnesota 0%
1650 Free Jacobsen, Kirsten; Arizona 0%
1650 Free Pfeifer, Genevieve; Texas 0%
1650 Free Finke, Ariel; NC State 0%
200 Back Ruck, Taylor; Stanford 69% 27% 7% 1%
200 Back Nelson, Elizabeth; Wisconsin 27% 59% 12% 1%
200 Back Seidt, Asia; Kentucky 4% 13% 68% 11%
200 Back Nordmann, Lucie; Stanford 0% 1% 5% 19%
200 Back Muzzy, Emma; NC State 0% 1% 3%
200 Back Galyer, Alex; Kentucky 0% 6% 54%
200 Back Nack, Chantal; Minnesota 0% 1% 2%
200 Back Voss, Erin; Stanford 0% 0% 3%
200 Back Moroney, Megan; Virginia 0% 1%
200 Back Larson, Sinclair; Tennessee 0%
200 Back Falconer, Erin; Auburn 3%
200 Back Blovad, Keaton; California 1%
200 Back Small, Meghan; Tennessee 1%
200 Back Koprivova, Vera; Rutgers 0%
200 Back Dressel, Sherridon; Florida 0%
100 Free Weitzeil, Abbigail; California 50% 38% 12% 1%
100 Free Comerford, Mallory; Louisville 36% 38% 21% 3%
100 Free Brown, Erika; Tennessee 13% 23% 55% 7%
100 Free Adams, Claire; Texas 0% 1% 1%
100 Free Perry, Ky-lee; NC State 0% 2%
100 Free TRANSOM, LATICIA-LEIGH; Southern Cali 0%
100 Free Haughey, Siobhan; Michigan 1% 8% 51%
100 Free Bilquist, Amy; California 1% 4% 29%
100 Free Hopkin, Anna; Arkansas 0% 0% 4%
100 Free DeLoof, Catherine; Michigan 0% 0%
100 Free Burchill, Veronica; Georgia 1%
100 Free Hill, Morgan; Virginia 1%
200 Breast King, Lillia; Indiana 98% 1%
200 Breast Pickrem, Sydney; Texas A&M 1% 80% 14% 3%
200 Breast Vose, Kirsten; Southern Cali 0%
200 Breast Belousova, Anna; Texas A&M 14% 68% 10%
200 Breast Hansson, Sophie; NC State 3% 11% 40%
200 Breast Zhao, Grace; Stanford 1% 4% 19%
200 Breast Tucker, Miranda; Michigan 1% 1% 9%
200 Breast Bonnett, Bailey; Kentucky 1% 4%
200 Breast Duncan, Delaney; Eastern Mich 1% 5%
200 Breast Popov, Nikol; Tennessee 1% 3%
200 Breast Bartel, Zoe; Stanford 0% 3%
200 Breast Barksdale, Emily; South Carolina 0% 0%
200 Breast Scott, Riley; Southern Cali 1%
200 Breast Peplowski, Noelle; Indiana 1%
200 Breast Pearl, Vanessa; Florida 1%
200 Breast Raab, Allison; Stanford 1%
200 Breast Higgs, Margaret; South Carolina 0%
200 Breast Sheridan, Calypso; Northwestern 0%
200 Breast Kozelsky, Lindsey; Minnesota 0%
200 Breast Calegan, Olivia; NC State 0%
200 Fly Eastin, Ella; Stanford 71% 19% 9% 1%
200 Fly Hansson, Louise; Southern Cali 23% 52% 20% 4%
200 Fly Drabot, Katherine; Stanford 5% 27% 59% 6%
200 Fly McLaughlin, Kathryn; California 0% 1% 2% 11%
200 Fly Rule, Remedy; Texas 0% 1% 1% 5%
200 Fly Oglesby, Grace; Louisville 0% 3% 23%
200 Fly Wright, Madison; Southern Cali 0% 2% 23%
200 Fly Luther, Dakota; Georgia 0% 2% 12%
200 Fly Forde, Brooke; Stanford 1% 6%
200 Fly Carter, Olivia; Georgia 1% 9%
200 Fly Harnish, Courtney; Georgia 0%
200 Fly Darcel, Sarah; California 0%
400 Free Relay California 92% 8%
400 Free Relay Stanford 4% 38% 37% 16%
400 Free Relay Texas 4% 39% 34% 17%
400 Free Relay Southern California 0% 0% 0%
400 Free Relay Michigan 13% 21% 47%
400 Free Relay Louisville 1% 4% 8%
400 Free Relay Auburn 1% 1% 8%
400 Free Relay North Carolina State 1% 1% 2%
400 Free Relay Virginia 0% 1% 0%
400 Free Relay Tennessee 1% 1%
400 Free Relay Missouri 0%

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Bob

Find it hard to believe less than 1% of people picked Eastin to win the 200 im

swimma1

This has to be wrong. Ella Eastin does not have that small share of 200 IM votes.

Barry

What happens if you score the meet based on predictions?

Doesn’t really work because the predictions don’t go deep enough.

Barry

Good point!

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