SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers if Summer McIntosh will break a long course world record in 2023, and if so, which comes first:
Question: Will Summer McIntosh break a LCM world record in 2023? If so, which will come first?
RESULTS
- 400 IM – 71.4%
- No WR in 2023 – 16.3%
- 400 free – 7.9%
- 200 fly – 2.5%
- 200 IM – 1.0%
- Other – 0.8%
Summer McIntosh‘s explosion as arguably the most versatile swimmer in the world came fast and furious last year, as the Canadian sensation followed up her international breakout at the Tokyo Olympic Games with some jaw-dropping performances in early 2022.
McIntosh entered the year with a personal best time on record of 4:50.21 in the 400 IM, and then at a Swimming Canada World Trials prep event in early March, clocked a mind-boggling 4:29.12 in the event to become the third-fastest performer in history while also going nearly three seconds quicker than what Japan’s Yui Ohashi went to win the Olympic gold medal the previous summer (4:32.08).
McIntosh, 15 at the time, also went 2:05.81 in the 200 fly in March, and that meet proved to only be the start of what was a phenomenal year for the Etobicoke Swimming product, as she roared to world titles in both events, challenged Katie Ledecky and Ariarne Titmus in the 400 free, and also established new World Junior Records in the 200 free and 200 IM.
Given her rapid rise in 2022, it feels as though it’s a matter of when, not if, McIntosh breaks her first world record.
In our most recent poll, nearly 84 percent of readers believe she’ll break a long course world record this year, with 71.4 predicitng that the 400 IM mark will fall first.
That’s certainly the event in which she’s been threatening the most—McIntosh is still more than two seconds shy of Katinka Hosszu‘s all-time mark of 4:26.36 from 2016, but she has lowered her PB twice since March, first clocking 4:29.01 at the Commonwealth Games in August and then getting down to 4:28.61 at the U.S. Open in December.
McIntosh’s performance at the U.S. Open, seemingly untapered, gives the indication that the world record is well within her grasp this year.
McIntosh’s Personal Best Progression, Women’s 400 IM (LCM)
- 4:50.21 – April 2019
- 4:29.12 – March 2022
- 4:29.01 – July 2022
- 4:28.61 – December 2022
Nearly eight percent of readers voted for the 400 free, where McIntosh is nearly three seconds back of the mark established by Titmus (3:56.40) earlier this year. Still, McIntosh went 4:02.42 to place fourth in the event in Tokyo, and followed up last year by breaking 4:00 three times, including once at the U.S. Open last month.
There were also a handful of votes for the 200 fly, an event where McIntosh won the world title by nearly nine-tenths of a second in 2022 in 2:05.20, but still sits well shy of the vaunted super-suited world record of 2:01.81, set by Liu Zige in 2009.
| Event (LCM) | World Record | McIntosh’s PB | Difference /100 meters |
| 200 free | 1:52.98 | 1:54.79 | 0.905 |
| 400 free | 3:56.40 | 3:59.32 | 0.73 |
| 200 fly | 2:01.81 | 2:05.20 | 1.695 |
| 200 IM | 2:06.12 | 2:08.70 | 1.29 |
| 400 IM | 4:26.36 | 4:28.61 | 0.5625 |
Over 16 percent voted that they don’t believe McIntosh will break a world record in the long course pool this year. Time will tell. It certainly doesn’t help that the 400 IM falls on the eighth and final day of what will be everyone’s main target meet this year, the World Championships in Fukuoka, but McIntosh has proven she can drop earth-shattering times at any point on the calendar.
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Here it comes… the telltale meet… in 2 weeks in Toronto. We’re going to learn, and she’s going to learn an awful lot about 2023, and possibly well beyond that. This has been the PB queen of all time. Even if it’s only a couple of tenths, 90+% of the time out it’s a PB. Where does that stop? Must it stop at all in, say, the next three years? The ceiling is what is frightening, but all the speculators here speak validly: it’s a dark unknown. Yes, she may be near her career’s peaks; but equally, yes, she may break WRs this year. It’s the most compelling sports story on the planet…
Oh, and, yeah, she might take down… Read more »
SCM 400 Free Record in coming
I personally don’t subscribe to the theory that she has had plenty of physical development left to go, or that she is losing massive amounts of time with turns/underwaters/starts compared to when she is fully mature. Most prodigies reach their ceiling at a younger age, and she has pushed herself at an elite level for years longer than some of her peers. I think she is closer to her peak than most seem to think, though the 400IM/400 free WR’s are certainly doable in the next few years. I would hold reservations in her other events due to scheduling density taking off her edge.
200 fly is just an alien record that nobody should be expected to beat until… Read more »
I don’t see a LCM WR this year for her, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she broke more than one next year.
The story of McIntosh breaking of some of the toughest world records set either by swimming titans or in the super suits can be very similar to the story of breaking world record in W200FR by Titmus.
One date to watch: April 1st (400 IM at the Canadian trials in Toronto).
Expecting Fool’s Day joking news? 😀
with the 400m IM at the end of the schedule in ’23, I think its unlikely that record would go.
400mfree is probably the most likely, but she has to get past the 2 best female swimmers in the world right now, even if she breaks the existing WR.
If I were to wager, I’d say she would probably take both 400free and 400IM records in 2024 in Paris (and probably bring them a sizeable amount lower than they are now), and bring the 200fly textile record to within speculating distance from WR. She’ll probably take the 200IM record at some point in the next quad.
What puzzles me how it is possible to be worse of Ledecky at 200 distance, worse of her at 800 distance and gonna be substantially faster(world record) at 400. Same can be said about McIntosh in Titmus’ case. Unless she gets better of them in one of these disciplines (200 or 800) I wouldn’t expect her to break the world record in 400FR.
A betting line wouldn’t resemble that number at all. Fan sites are always up, up and away, saying yes to everything.