SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which men’s freestyle relay world record is most likely to fall at the 2025 World Championships, and from which nation:
Question: Which world record combo is most likely at the 2025 Worlds?
RESULTS
- Men’s 4×200 FR – USA – 59.9%
- Men’s 4×100 FR – USA – 23.2%
- Men’s 4×200 FR – GBR – 11.2%
- Men’s 4×100 FR – AUS/RUS/The Field – 5.7%
For all the trepidation about the lack of gold medal prospects this summer for the American men heading into the U.S. National Championships, their performances in the 100 and 200 freestyle in Indianapolis certainly gave a strong impression that they’re relay favorites heading into the 2025 World Championships.
In our most recent poll, we asked SwimSwam readers which scenario was most likely: the U.S. men break the world record in the 4×100 free relay, the U.S. men break the world record in the 4×200 free relay, the British men take down the 4×200 world record, or any other country besides the Americans crack the 4×100 record.
Both world records have been on the books for well over a decade; the men’s 4×100 free relay world record of 3:08.24 stems from that epic Jason Lezak comeback for the Americans at the 2008 Olympics, while the 4×200 record sits at 6:58.55, set by the U.S. at the 2009 World Championships (after they went 6:58.56 at the 2008 Olympics).
The team that has come closest to breaking either world record since the beginning of 2010 is the Brits in the 4×200 free, as Tom Dean, James Guy, Matt Richards and Duncan Scott combined for a time of 6:58.58 at the Tokyo Olympics, missing the super-suited mark by three one-hundredths of a second.
However, heading into the 2025 Worlds, fans believe the most likely world record scenario is the U.S. men breaking the 4×200 record, which, coming out of the 2024 Olympics, would’ve come as a surprise after Great Britain won gold in Paris in 6:59.43, while the Americans took silver in 7:00.78.
However, at U.S. Nationals held earlier this month in Indianapolis, the Americans showed incredible depth in the 200 free, led by Luke Hobson winning the title in a time of 1:43.73, the first American to break 1:44 since Michael Phelps in 2009.
Gabriel Jett was 2nd in 1:44.70, and five more men went between 1:45.1 and 1:45.7 in the ‘A’ final, while rising star Luka Mijatovic, who was 8th in 1:46.39, went 1:45.92 in the prelims. Among 200 free finalists, only 6th-place finisher Kieran Smith (1:45.72) was not named to the Worlds team.
They’ve got eight men ranked in the top 20 in the world this season:
2024-2025 LCM Men 200 Free
POPOVICI
1:43.64
| 2 | Luke HOBSON | USA | 1:43.73 | 06/04 |
| 3 | Lukas Märtens | GER | 1:44.25 | 05/03 |
| 4 | Gabriel JETT | USA | 1:44.70 | 06/04 |
| 5 | Edward Sommerville | AUS | 1:44.93 | 06/10 |
| 6 | Hwang Sunwoo | KOR | 1:45.03 | 10/15 |
| 7 | James GUY | GBR | 1:45.08 | 04/20 |
| 7 | Duncan SCOTT | GBR | 1:45.08 | 04/20 |
| 9 | Rex MAURER | USA | 1:45.13 | 06/04 |
| 10 | Henry McFadden | USA | 1:45.22 | 06/04 |
| 11 | Matt RICHARDS | GBR | 1:45.35 | 04/20 |
| 12 | Pan ZHANLE | CHN | 1:45.45 | 05/19 |
| 12 | Carson FOSTER | USA | 1:45.45 | 06/04 |
| 14 | MURASA TATSUYA | JPN | 1:45.67 | 03/21 |
| 15 | Samuel Short | AUS | 1:45.71 | 06/10 |
| 16 | Kieran Smith | USA | 1:45.72 | 06/04 |
| 17 | Chris Guilano | USA | 1:45.73 | 06/04 |
| 18 | Zac INCERTI | AUS | 1:45.80 | 06/10 |
| 19 | Flynn SOUTHAM | AUS | 1:45.85 | 06/10 |
| 20 | Luka Mijatovic | USA | 1:45.92 | 06/04 |
That gives them an immense amount of depth for the relay, and simply adding up the top-four times from the Nationals final gives them a relay of 6:58.78, just over two-tenths shy of the world record without accounting for relay takeovers.
Split Comparison
| U.S. 2009 World Record | U.S. 2025 Nationals 200 Free Final Add-Up |
| Michael Phelps – 1:44.49 | Luke Hobson – 1:43.73 |
| Ricky Berens – 1:44.13 | Gabriel Jett – 1:44.70 |
| David Walters – 1:45.47 | Rex Maurer – 1:45.13 |
| Ryan Lochte – 1:44.46 | Henry McFadden – 1:45.22 |
| 6:58.55 | 6:58.78 |
Carson Foster, who was 5th in the U.S. National final in 1:45.45, has a sub-1:44 relay split on his resume as well, giving the Americans even more hope for a world record swim.
The next-highest option in the poll was the U.S. men breaking the 4×100 world record, which, although it seems like a long shot given the 3:08.24 mark has stood uncontested for 17 years, the Americans had seven men break 48 seconds in the final at Nationals, and the add-up of their top four finishers comes in at 3:09.71. With a few 46-point swims with a takeover, something in the 3:08s is certainly in the cards.
The British men only received 11.2% of votes to break the 4×200 world record, which comes after Dean took some time off in the fall to compete on Strictly Come Dancing, and he’s only been 1:48.05 this season. The rest of the squad is on good form, with Scott, Guy and Richards all going 1:45-low at the Aquatics GB Championships, but Dean is a big question mark.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Which world record held by Sarah Sjostrom is at risk heading into Singapore?
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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
