With the release earlier of the 2012 NCAA uncut Psych Sheets, we can begin breaking down the events and scoring them as seeded. Based strictly on seeds, here are the top 5:
1. Georgia 377
2. Cal 338
3. Arizona 275
4. Stanford 266
5. Tennessee 251
(Scroll to the bottom of this article for the breakdown of all 46 seeded scorers).
Assumptions
A few assumptions were made in scoring this. The first was that the 16th-place relays would, in fact, be entered in the meet, though there’s no guarantees that those schools would cobble together a group of four qualified individuals. (Last year’s cut was at 15 relays, so 16th place relays would not receive invites. We also assumed that everyone would swim the three events in which they were entered, and not scratch one to swim 5 relays, which is never a guarantee either.
Breakdown
Psych sheet scoring shows a very tight race at the top, with only 40 points separating the top seeded Georgia from second-seeded Cal. It’s a fair assumption to guess that the top 3 will all have similar drops from their seeds, based on history and current season best times.
There are a lot of new faces in this year’s potential scoring. That includes Liberty, who has a 15th-seed in the 50 free in Breyanne Ravettine; Wisconsin Milwaukee whose Emily McLellan is slotted to score in both breaststrokes (including the 4th in the 100; and Toledo’s Laura Lindsay who’s had a great career.
Wisconsin has held serve, by seed, despite losing NCAA Champion Maggie Meyer. This speaks to some improved depth from the team. Missouri, hugely on the addition of Shara Stafford, along with some step-ups (inlcuding an impressive 3rd-seed in the 200 free relay) looks to shoot up the rankings. They weren’t spectacular at Big 12’s, but remember that their head coach Greg Rhodenbaugh is an Arizona guy.
A&M and Texas will look to get in the huge battle that we didn’t get to see at Big 12’s, where A&M ran away with it. The 9th-place spot is A&M’s to lose, as their divers will score much bigger points.
Virginia takes a big hit, with the news today that Lauren Perdue is done for the year. By seed, they are all the way down in 16th – though I think there’s a good chance that their individuals will improve off of seed.
Penn State is living up to their pre-season predictions, and with some relays seeded to score could quadruple their scoring output from last year. LSU, even with Amanda Kendall’s explosion, is slated to cut their points in half without Jane Trepp.
Of course, this is all just off of seed. Later this week, we’ll put a little bit more feeling into it.
Diving
Looking just at the very top, as in the top 5, Tennessee has the best diving group, though none of the 5 are overwhelming in that area. Reaching down a bit further, USC’s Victoria Ishimatsu, Auburn’s Vennie Dantin, and A&M’s trio of Jaele Patrick/Rebecca St. Germain/Janie Potvin should score huge points.
Stay tuned as more breakdowns of the psych sheets are coming.
| 1. Georgia 377 |
| 2. Cal 338 |
| 3. Arizona 275 |
| 4. Stanford 266 |
| 5. Tennessee 251 |
| 6. USC 243 |
| 7. Auburn 211 |
| 8. Florida 200 |
| 9. A&M 166 |
| 10. Texas 158 |
| 11. Wisconsin 121 |
| 12. 15. Minnesota 117 |
| 13. Indiana 104 |
| 14. SMU 103 |
| 15. Missouri 99 |
| 16. Virginia 66 |
| 17. Arizona St. 64 |
| 18. Penn State 61 |
| 19. UNC 46 |
| 20. LSU 43 |
| 21. WVU 26 |
| 22. Purdue 25 |
| 23. Louisville 24 |
| 24. Boise State 23 |
| 25. Wisconsin-Milwaukee 22 |
| 26. Ohio State 18 |
| 27. Miami 17 |
| 28. Columbia 16 |
| 29. Virginia Tech 16 |
| 30. Eastern Michigan 11 |
| 31. ND 10 |
| 32. UCLA 9 |
| 33. George Mason 8 |
| 34. Wyoming 6 |
| 35. Maryland 6 |
| 36. Alabama 5 |
| 37. UNLV 4 |
| 38. Arkansas 3 |
| 39. Liberty 2 |
| 40. Florida International 2 |
| 41. Michigan 1 |
| 42. Toledo 1 |
| 43. South Carolina 1 |
If caitlin leverenz was unrested she will be scary, american records in all 3? Not to mention the medley relays. Cannot wait for the IM battles
At the top of the page, Georgia is seeded one and two in the NCAA. Btw, notice that Cal’s Deborah Roth won’t make it to NCAA’s. I’m guessing she didn’t drop down enough for Pac-12’s. That’s something like 30 points Cal could have gained.
Chris – someone brought that up on another thread. If I had to guess, McKeever will find a way to get her in. Maybe they’ll aggregate a 400 medley relay and swim it in prelims before subbing Tran in on finals. Would still presumably be a good enough relay to A-Final.
Cal is good enough to find a way to get her into the meet if they want to.
Hooray, Penn State is getting 21st AND 26th this year! That has to be a new record or something.
Haha just kidding, does seem to be a bit of a typo there, though 🙂
Thanks Penn State Fan. Accidentally split their score in two. Moves them into the top 20.