We haven’t seen the final post-cut psych sheets, but one area where there is certainty is surrounding the top-16 swimmers in each event that makes up the scorers. Below, we’ve scored out the meet, based on psych sheets, though there’s still some change that swimmers will scratch individual events, etc.
Based on the psych sheet scoring, I think a lot of people will be surprised at the top 4, which shows Georgia, A&M, Cal, and Florida, in that order. After the SEC Championships, there was plenty building momentum for the Bulldogs, and many people probably changed their minds about who was the “favorite,” but to be 41 points ahead of Cal is a surprise. Neither team was at a full rest, certainly, at their respective conference meet; the bonus for Cal is their upside. Georgia has three relays that are seeded #1 in the country (the three free relays) even without being rested. As compared to seed, the Golden Bears could move up much further.
Virginia, the ACC Champions, are seeded one spot behind North Carolina; again, we know that Virginia wasn’t rested for that meet. Also consider that diving isn’t factored into these scores, so schools like Missouri, Auburn, and Tennessee have a chance to make a big move up the rankings.
The Bulldogs, thanks to incoming transfer and All-American Laura Ryan, should extend their “predicted” margin over Cal even further. A&M and USC, other expected top-5 teams, also have very good diving groups. Teri McKeever’s group is going to have to be very, very good at NCAA’s if they want to pull off the three-peat.
(Note: this scoring was done before there were a few revisions to the psych sheets, though there were no changes that would have huge scoring implications, just a few points here-and-there.)
| Georgia-GA | 396 |
| Texas A&M-GU | 368 |
| California-PC | 345 |
| Florida-FL | 340 |
| Southern Cali-CA | 279 |
| Tennessee-SE | 266 |
| Stanford-PC | 238 |
| Arizona-AZ | 216 |
| Minnesota-MN | 192 |
| Texas-ST | 136 |
| Indiana-IN | 121 |
| Auburn-SE | 96 |
| UNC-NC | 88 |
| Virginia-VA | 59 |
| Missouri-MV | 43 |
| Notre Dame-IN | 39 |
| Penn St-MA | 37 |
| Yale-CT | 31 |
| Columbia University-MR | 29 |
| Louisville-KY | 29 |
| Wisconsin-WI | 25 |
| Ohio St-OH | 25 |
| So. Methodist-NT | 24 |
| Arkansas-AR | 19 |
| Arizona St-AZ | 17 |
| UCLA-CA | 16 |
| Virginia Tech-VA | 15 |
| West Virginia University-WV | 14 |
| Florida St-FL | 13 |
| Princeton-NJ | 9 |
| LSU-LA | 8 |
| Miami (FL)-FG | 7 |
| Michigan-MI | 7 |
| Northwestern-IL | 5 |
| Wis.- Milwaukee-WI | 5 |
| Denver (W)-CO | 4 |
| Harvard-NE | 2 |
| NC STATE-NC | 2 |
Freebee, I agree with your post and here are 3 reasons why: Cal’s 2012 psych sheet relay seedings vs. actual finish: 200 Free Relay seeding was 9th vs 2012 Actual Finish = 2nd; 200 Medley Relay seeding was 4th vs. 2012 Actual Finish= 1st; 400 Free Relay seeding was 16th vs. 2012 Actual Finish= 5th. Those are HUGE points that put Cal on top and predicting that those results were gonna happen wasn’t evident based simply on the psych sheet.
So…as fun as these psych sheets are – until we see these teams at their full strength (and conference championships meet don’t really let us see that anymore) everything is still up in the air.
Braden’s predictions are commendable… Read more »
There are way to many contingencies–mainly–the swimmers need to arrive, confident, healthy and ready to swim–this is fun but so so so far from being accurate unless Braden shuts my e-mouth by showing that in the past scoring by psyche sheets has been accurate–
This is the year that the DAWGS win the tile from CAL. Last year the relays on day one were bad and cost UGA the meet and the Cal diver scoring was insult to injury. This year, Allison is back, the freshman class last year is experienced and we have a championship level diver. This is the year UGA brings home the trophy to Athens! Go Dawgs! Woof Woof Woof
51 points is a lot for Cal to make up to catch Georgia especially if Georgia also has an edge in diving. Does anyone know what the point gap last year going into the meet? Also is Laura Ryan an A-finalist in all 3 diving specialties?
These psyche sheets are nice but as we all know…it ALWAYS comes down to relays….
Agreed – it will be tougher for Cal this year than last. Last year Georgia also looked stronger on paper (if I recall correctly) but faded a touch at NCs in conjunction with a very clutch meet for the Bears. This year there are now two teams ahead of Cal (in theory at least). Of course it certainly can still happen for the Berkeleyites, but it looks like there are more things that will need to break their way.