Scoring the 2014 Women’s NCAA Psych Sheets: Georgia’s Depth Shows Through

With the release this morning of the uncut entry lists for the NCAA Championships, we’ve gone through and scored things as they’re seeded.

A note to make sure there’s absolute clarity: these lists released late Monday by USA Swimming are not official lists of who’s been invited to NCAA’s. They are lists of which three individual events, and relays, each team is trying to send to the meet, if the cuts fall in their favor.

See these lists here.

With that being said, the top 16 seeds in each individual event are about as sure of a lock as one can get, so scoring out those top 16 is possible, even before the psych sheets are cut.

First, let’s start with a reflective look. Psych sheet scoring is not infallible. It doesn’t take into account taper patterns, diving, and disqualifications or scratches.

What it is, however, is a good starting point perspective, so that during the meet, teams and fans sort of know where things stand, how their team is improving, etc. But they are pretty good. Last year, they correctly predicted both NCAA Champions (Georgia women, Michigan men). The year before, they were close, but not right on. Last year, they had the right top 10 teams in the wrong order, with a lot of the differences (but not all) explained by diving (Tennessee’s scoring difference was largely explained by diving, for example, and they were the really big mover). Below, we’ve done a comparison of the top 10 teams from last year’s psych sheet scoring to the actual outcome, for your viewing enjoyment.

PSYCH PSYCH ACTUAL ACTUAL
1 Georgia-GA 396 Georgia 477
2 Texas A&M-GU 368 Cal 393
3 California-PC 345 Tennessee 325.5
4 Florida-FL 340 Texas A&M 323.5
5 Southern Cali-CA 279 Arizona 311
6 Tennessee-SE 266 Florida 305
7 Stanford-PC 238 USC 291
8 Arizona-AZ 216 Stanford 246
9 Minnesota-MN 192 Texas 186
10 Texas-ST 136 Minnesota 141

We’ll break the scoring down a dozen different ways in the next two weeks, but to start, here’s a full list based on just swimming psych sheet scoring. We’ve put a (D) for teams that should expect a significant positive diving impact to their score – which there’s an increasing number of top programs on the women’s side who will be impacted.

Both Cal and Georgia can expect diving points, but Georgia’s should be more with two potential scorers and potential scorers in more events, as compared to Cal who is leaning heavily on Kahley Rowell in the platform.

On paper, Georgia has just under a 130-point advantage, plus whatever advantage they get in diving. That means that the Cal women have some catching up to do – because while Georgia lacks some of the star power they had when they won the title last year, the depth that they’ve developed is absolutely unbelievable. To illustrate that, we’ve included a count of the number of seeded scoring swims (including relays) in the far right-hand column.

Psych Scored Points Number of Scoring Swims
1. Georgia 514 (D) 38
2. Cal 386 (D) 29
3. Stanford 320 (D) 20
4. Texas A&M 317 (D) 28
5. Florida 268 23
6. USC 255 (D) 22
7. Virginia 194 15
8. Tennessee 174 (D) 10
9. Arizona 164 (D) 12
10. Indiana 120 12
11. Texas 95 (D+) 11
12. Minnesota 83 (D+) 13
13. UNC 73 9
14. Louisville 63 9
15. Wisconsin 56 6
16. San Diego State 54 6
17. Notre Dame 51 5
18. Auburn 43 8
19. Penn St. 43 8
20. NC State 34 4
21. Missouri 30 (D) 5
22. Wisconsin-Milwaukee 30 3
23. Kentucky 28 4
24. Florida St. 27 7
25. Alabama 26 6
26. SMU 19 3
27. UNLV 13 2
28. Denver 11 2
29. UCLA 10 (D) 4
30. Florida Gulf Coast 9 2
31. Oregon State 9 2
32. Ohio State 8 (D) 3
33. Nevada 7 2
34. Virginia Tech 7 (D) 2
35. UCSB 6 2
36. Michigan 5 3
37. Princeton 4 2
38. LSU 4 (D) 2
39. Utah 2 (D) 3
40. Arkansas 2 2
41. Kansas 1 2

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PAC12BACKER

It sure looks like Cal has significant work to do to catch Georgia. Diving a wash at best for Cal between these two teams. We’ll see what the prognosis is for the Cal men during the PAC 12 championships but appears that no psych sheet posted on the PAC 12 web yet. I’m not a big fan of that PAC 12 swimming & diving web-site!

gosharks

Pac 12 Men’s Psych Sheets:

http://results.teamunify.com/pnws2/

duckduckgoose

Thanks for the number crunching, Braden. The final 2013 team scores include diving, so wouldn’t a better psych sheet/actual results comparison be without diving added into final results? Also the Ds for schools with projected diving points haven’t be added.

Dan

At what point do teams have to trim their roster? Are there any potential scorers that may not be at the meet?

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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