Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time, is back in the USADA drug testing pool and back at practice under longtime coach Bob Bowman. Both men maintain this is merely a means of staying fit, staying within striking distance of fighting shape. If Phelps feels race ready, he’ll test his speed–but don’t call it a comeback. Yet.
Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)
Whatever the outcome, any swimming news surrounding the 22-time Olympic medalist is positive. Phelps could decide competition is a no-go and attend the 2016 Rio Olympic Games as an ambassador. His presence alone will make an impact, promoting his lifelong goal of growing the sport of swimming. However, if Phelps finds his feel for the water, his future is anyone’s guess.
My prediction, outlined in the video above, is based on Phelps’ age in 2016, the Olympic (and U.S. Olympic Trials) schedule of events, and Phelps’ desire to try new events. If he dives back into competition over the next two year and a half years, I think my six guesses are realistic.
100 meter freestyle: 47.4
100 meter butterfly: 50.2
200 meter IM: 1:53.8
I see Phelps making the 4×200 freestyle relay with a strong 200 free at US Olympic Trials, but he doesn’t swim it individually in Rio. I think that would net him a spot on all three relays. With three individual events, Phelps would race for Olympic hardware six times at the 2016 Olympic Games.
If Michael Phelps makes a comeback, what are your guesses?
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com.
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135 Comments on "Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video"
I was tooootally gonna make a 100 back comment, but it was like Mel read my mind! But yeah, 2 IM or 2 fly seem more likely than that.
And I mean, phew, it seems real crazy to speculate on where he’d finish. Events and times, yeah, you can kinda parse those out. But who knows where the rest of the world’ll be in two and a half years!? I can see him not medaling in everything almost as easily as medaling.
It’s a tough call this far out — if Phelp is returning to competition – but we’ll revisit this topic again and again as Rio nears. It’ll be interesting to see how our guesses change or stay the same or zero-out b/c Phelps decides he’s truly done forever. I think 47.4 100 free, 50.2 100 fly and 1:53.8 are within range and fast enough to make the US Olympic Team in ’16.
50.2 100 fly just casually a second quicker than he went in London lol
Phelps was 50.7 in the 100 fly at the 2011 World Champs b/c he didn’t swim the 400 IM. Not swimming (or training for) the 400 IM has a huge impact on his speed. Phelps will need to improve .5 over that swim to net a 50.2. (In tech suits he went 50.5 in Beijing and 49.8 in Rome.)
Don’t forget that Phelps went 50.8 in the semis of the 100 fly in London, even with the 400IM earlier in the week. 50.2 is definitely possible.
I’d like to see a sub 50 from Phelps in a non tech suit. I know that’s crazy, that he went 49.8 in Rome/Worlds in a sausage suit— BUT Phelps did improve his 200 IM time in from the tech suit era. Maybe, just maybe he could in 100 fly as well. That would be spectacular…
Also, to be fair, Phelps has not been the fastest ever in a non tech suit. That 100 fly goes to Ian Crocker, 50.4. If Phelps swam a 50.39 in non tech suit, that’d be a great swim as well.
LOL, GMM…sausage suit…is that anything like Lochte’s banana hammock?
100/200 fly. 200 freestyle and the relays.