Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video


Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time, is back in the USADA drug testing pool and back at practice under longtime coach Bob Bowman. Both men maintain this is merely a means of staying fit, staying within striking distance of fighting shape. If Phelps feels race ready, he’ll test his speed–but don’t call it a comeback. Yet.

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Whatever the outcome, any swimming news surrounding the 22-time Olympic medalist is positive. Phelps could decide competition is a no-go and attend the 2016 Rio Olympic Games as an ambassador. His presence alone will make an impact, promoting his lifelong goal of growing the sport of swimming. However, if Phelps finds his feel for the water, his future is anyone’s guess.

My prediction, outlined in the video above, is based on Phelps’ age in 2016, the Olympic (and U.S. Olympic Trials) schedule of events, and Phelps’ desire to try new events. If he dives back into competition over the next two year and a half years, I think my six guesses are realistic.

100 meter freestyle: 47.4

100 meter butterfly: 50.2

200 meter IM: 1:53.8

I see Phelps making the 4×200 freestyle relay with a strong 200 free at US Olympic Trials, but he doesn’t swim it individually in Rio. I think that would net him a spot on all three relays.  With three individual events, Phelps would race for Olympic hardware six times at the 2016 Olympic Games.

If Michael Phelps makes a comeback, what are your guesses?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com.


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10 years ago

If traditional training for 200s becomes too grueling, how bout some USRPT!

10 years ago

It would be awesome if Michael were to compete in the 2016 Olympics. I’m 12 and all I want to do is be like him. He is such an insperation to me and I would really like to see him compete one last time.

10 years ago

I just noticed that the full event information for Summer Nationals is now up at USA Swimming. Maybe everyone else already expected this, but looks like the same schedule as last year. So, Phelps would be looking at:

Wednesday: 100 free (assuming no 200 fly)
Thursday: 200 free
Friday: 100 fly (assuming no 400 IM)
Saturday: off
Sunday: 200 IM

Seems reasonable. I’m thinking about California for vacation anyway, and if Phelps ends up swimming at Nationals, that’ll seal the deal for me.

10 years ago

200 Free Final in Rio with Loche, Phelps. Yanel and Sun Yang will be the most exciting Final in of the Olympics.

10 years ago

I think that Phelps would need strong motivation to get in the kind of shape he’d need to be in to compete for gold. I think he really allowed himself to relax and refresh himself, and now he needs to re-focus. My money is on him competing in Rio because he knows that if he DOESN’T try, he may someday have to look back with regret, and because after you “officially retire” from something you used to do better than anybody else is when you start to miss it! LOL!

As far as the “motivating events” go, helping the U.S. win the 4×100 FR again would definitely be high on his goal list. We all saw how “pumped” he… Read more »

10 years ago

I think these predictions are way too fast. Phelps is not mentally ready to train hard for another 2 and 1/2 years in order to do another Olympics. He’s already the most decorated Olympic Athlete of all time and has nothing left to prove. In my opinion, if he does come back, he won’t be nearly as fast as you may think. Yes he could still have a strong 100 fly or 200 IM but I would not expect any gold medal individual swims from Phelps in Rio. We saw in London that he is beatable and that was him at 24 years old. It won’t be any easier to motivate and recover as he ages.

Reply to  James
10 years ago

Phelps was 27 in London.

10 years ago

Another interesting comparison:
In 2008, MP was in prime shape. Began the week with the 400 IM, ended it with a 50.5 in the 100 fly.
In 2009, MP wore the same suit, but constantly complained about being out of shape. Swimming a shorter schedule, he ended the week with a 49.8 in the 100 fly.

I think there is something to focusing on the shorter events over the 400 IM.

Reply to  Tea
10 years ago

Phelps did not wear the same suit in 2009. In 2008 he wore leggings, and in 2009 he wore a full body suit. It was commented on at the time.

10 years ago

An interesting comparison:
Ryan Lochte is one year older than Michael Phelps. He is spending a year recovering from a knee injury (kind of bad for a kick-driven swimmer). Phelps spent a year relaxing, mentally readjusting, and now getting back in shape. If Phelps made a comeback, I’m hard pressed to see any reason Lochte would have an advantage over him.

Reply to  Tea
10 years ago

I think Ryan is a lot more motivated than people give him credit for. I’ll bet he’s working out the best way he can, even if he can’t be swimming workouts, and he’ll be stronger in some areas than he was before. Plus, after an intense rehab process many athletes are able to tolerate the pain of training better than they could before, and they find motivation because they want their careers to end on their own terms. My question with Ryan is whether his knee injury will affect his breastroke times though, because that was one area he had a slight edge over MP.

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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