Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video

  135 Gold Medal Mel Stewart | January 08th, 2014 | Featured, Gold Medal Minute, International, National, News, Video | Sponsored by: Swimoutlet.com


Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time, is back in the USADA drug testing pool and back at practice under longtime coach Bob Bowman. Both men maintain this is merely a means of staying fit, staying within striking distance of fighting shape. If Phelps feels race ready, he’ll test his speed–but don’t call it a comeback. Yet.

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Whatever the outcome, any swimming news surrounding the 22-time Olympic medalist is positive. Phelps could decide competition is a no-go and attend the 2016 Rio Olympic Games as an ambassador. His presence alone will make an impact, promoting his lifelong goal of growing the sport of swimming. However, if Phelps finds his feel for the water, his future is anyone’s guess.

My prediction, outlined in the video above, is based on Phelps’ age in 2016, the Olympic (and U.S. Olympic Trials) schedule of events, and Phelps’ desire to try new events. If he dives back into competition over the next two year and a half years, I think my six guesses are realistic.

100 meter freestyle: 47.4

100 meter butterfly: 50.2

200 meter IM: 1:53.8

I see Phelps making the 4×200 freestyle relay with a strong 200 free at US Olympic Trials, but he doesn’t swim it individually in Rio. I think that would net him a spot on all three relays.  With three individual events, Phelps would race for Olympic hardware six times at the 2016 Olympic Games.

If Michael Phelps makes a comeback, what are your guesses?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com.


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135 Comments on "Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video"

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Steve Nolan
2 years 9 months ago

I was tooootally gonna make a 100 back comment, but it was like Mel read my mind! But yeah, 2 IM or 2 fly seem more likely than that.

And I mean, phew, it seems real crazy to speculate on where he’d finish. Events and times, yeah, you can kinda parse those out. But who knows where the rest of the world’ll be in two and a half years!? I can see him not medaling in everything almost as easily as medaling.

2 years 9 months ago

50.2 100 fly just casually a second quicker than he went in London lol

2 years 9 months ago

100/200 fly. 200 freestyle and the relays.

2 years 9 months ago

All three relays, 100 fly, maybe 200 IM. Would really like to see the USA get the 4×100 free gold again. It will be interesting to see how low he can get his 100 free if he can focus on that. I wouldn’t put substantial money on a 47.4, but it wouldn’t shock me either.

2 years 9 months ago

Well in london he did a 50.8 in the semifinals after the win 200 medley…

2 years 9 months ago

I thought the giant Under Armour logo on the speed skaters suits looked ridiculous. Would hate to see it on a swim suit.

GO Phelps
2 years 9 months ago

Somebody made the claim on another swim swam article that phelps is working with under armour on a suit deal and is ending his speedo contract. “Aqua Armour” … Any word on this being true?

DC Guy
2 years 9 months ago

Regardless of the Maryland swimming situation which most would think comes back someday now that Maryland is entering the Big 10, Under Armor is still located in the Baltimore/Washington area and sounds like is working on a new product line.

2 years 9 months ago

I imagine he’ll lead off the 4×100 freestyle relay, but not compete individually. That said, I agree with the rest!

2 years 9 months ago

Go Phelps,

You mean the same company started by the man who went to school that just dropped their swim programs despite a training facility and moving to the big ten for the money? That company?! Surely you jest.

2 years 9 months ago

what does the college of the founder have to do with how a company behaves… irrelevant

2 years 9 months ago

No 100 fr. Freestylers are a dime a dozen. I think 200 fly, 100 fly, 200 IM and 200 free In a relay.

2 years 9 months ago

In London, the day after that draining and shocking 400 im, with a preparation negatively affected by the decision of swimming again the 400 im (really a bad, bad choice from Bowman ), Phelps swam 47.15 with flying start.. and everybody knows that Phelps isn’t a specialist of flying start at all. (projection in London for Phelps in 100 free: 47.7, the winning time of Adrian..)
About Rio 2016, I disagree with Gold Medal Mel both for the total number of events (6 are too many events) and the number of individual events (3 are two many).
In my opinion: 2 individual events and two relays is the right schedule for Phelps in Rio 2016.
For the indidual events two possible choices:
1) 100 fly and 100 free or back for a interesting specialization towards speed and shorter events (50.1 and 47.2 my guesses)
2) 100 fly and 200 im otherwise ( 50.3-50.4 and 1.53.9 my guesses)

2 years 9 months ago

Phelps wasn’t known for his relay starts… but flat starts were always the weakest part of his race, too.

2 years 9 months ago

At first i though 47.4 hmm a bit far fetched but then i thought about much how quicker the 100FR specialists will be going in Rio if he does come back he would be a solid member of the 4x 100m FR relay team but an individual spot i dont know but its Michael so nothing is impossible haha

2 years 9 months ago

To me it’s obvious that He we swim 100 fly and the 200 medley. Those are the events where He can make 4 titles and really be imortal across all sports. He will swim de 3 relays. I would like to see him swim the 100 back and 100 free. Had He swam those races in Beijing and He would have medal in both. In 2007 He went 53.01 back and he lead off in Beijing with 47.51. Both times bronze medal times in beijing. However i don’t think he will swim 7 events (100 bk,fly,fr, 200m and the relays) and i still think He has the desire to triumph in his signature event (200 fly) but that would depend on how fast chad has become on that event. 8 events its impossible. But seeing him swim 7 events (the sprints, 200 medley and the relays) would be awesome. And if He got a medal in back and 100 free it would ciment his legacy. Lets not forget He is one of the best backstrokers of all time textile without a medal to show because He never decided to swim those events even though He qualified for 200 back in athens… I really think that if knew back then that He wasn t going to do the 8 for 8 in athens because of the relay and the 200 Fr, He would have decided to swim the 200 back and He would have 9 medals in athens…maybe even a gold medal in the 200 back because maybe peirsol would stay disquiliefied because phelps may have gotten a second place…

2 years 9 months ago

I think the fact that we all have to accept is that IF he does go full-bore into a comeback, there will be at least one race that he can medal in (or even gold medal in) that he will leave in his bag.

2 years 9 months ago

My dime would be on him focusing on speed, 100 free and perhaps 100 fly, specifically, if nothing else because the shorter the race, the older you can be and still medal … and yes, of course the 100 free is THE event in swimming (Spitz and Biondi both raced it …). But I remember MP trying to adjust his stroke to the 100 free after the 2008 Olympics, and it just did not work. And let’s not forget about Thorpe, whose comeback focused on becoming more oriented towards speed events, and it also did not work (I know, I know, he was out of the pool for 5 years …).

ole 99
2 years 9 months ago

My 2 cents…

I think you nailed the events he would/will go after, I just don’t know if he would actually swim three individual events. Qualifying for the 100 free looks to be the big question. I agree that he would love to qualify/compete in the glamour race of the sport on its biggest stage. However, it is much less probable (but not necessarily unlikely) that he would qualify to swim the event individually in my opinion. If he qualifies, he’d undoubtedly swim it.

Assuming Phelps is already on the 4 x 200 free relay, adding the 100 free makes for a fairly busy Day 4. Day 5 would then have a potential final in the 100 free and heats and semis of the 200 IM. Day 6 would have heats and semis of the 100 fly and finals of the 200 IM. Its not obscene, but still a lot of swimming for a guy trying to focus on a few key events.

2 years 9 months ago


Lochte and Ledecky named Swimmers of the Year.
Perhaps Lochte taking center stage will drive Phelps to the comeback. And the men will definitely need Phelps if Lochte does not regain good form after the knee injury. What is the status on Lochte’s knee?

I think Phelps will return for the relays mainly, those are his best shots at making the team, and he could end his career looking like a “team player” [for his personal media gains partly].

2 years 9 months ago

Why did the choose Lochte over le Clos and Yang?

2 years 9 months ago

Lochte : 1st in 200 back, 1st in 200 im, 1st in 4x200m free, 2nd in 4×100 free, would have been 1st in 4 x 100 medley, qualified in the 100 fly and the 200 free getting 4th the 200 free and 6th in the fly

Le Clos: 1st in 100 fly and 200 fly

Yang : 1st in the 400 free, 800 free and 1500 free, 3rd in 4×200 free

It basically comes down to Yang vs Lochte, Yand had more indivdual golds, Lochte had 3 golds 1 silver, Yang had 3 golds 1 bronze. However, Lochte had a way more rigorous schedule

2 years 9 months ago

Keep in mind, for now he’s training with:
Yannick Agnel (200/400 freestyler)
Conor Dwyer (200/400 freestyler, occasional IMer)
Matt McLean (200/400 freestyler)
Tom Luchsinger (200 flyer)
…and being coached by Bob Bowman (known for coaching 200-400 swimmers, has almost no experience training sprinters).

Everyone’s assuming he would (hypothetically) focus on speed because of his age. But this would be a weird way to go about speed training.

I also suspect he has a chip on his shoulder about losing the 200 fly. He lost the 200 free in ’04, and kept training for it until he broke the WR. He lost the 100 fly to Crocker a few times, and that seemed to really motivate him for the next few years. When he won everything in ’08, his motivation kind of fizzled out. I would be shocked if he let Le Clos touch him out, and never try to challenge him again. 2/400 Fr and 1/200 Fly is not out of the question if his training goes well.

2 years 9 months ago

LeClos would make Michael Phelps look silly in the 200 fly in Rio. Chad looking all around and behind and stuff, while he’s winning. Not a good idea.

2 years 9 months ago

I agree.

TEA’s analysis is irrational analysis from a huge fan.

2 years 9 months ago

Tea- I don’t think phelps will do 2/4 free because I think Agnel will do those and I think Agnel will beat him.
I think Bowman training all these international swimmers may drive Phelps (and Bowman) too. Bowman will have international stars but he can also have national success with Phelps which can overshadow US disappointment with Bowman training the foreign swimmers. If that makes sense.

2 years 9 months ago

Bob Bowman has shown before that he will adjust the entire team’s training to fit what’s best for his protege. He might do it again. But it would be a dumb move – to tailor workouts for one swimmer’s maybe-I-will-maybe-I-won’t encore, instead of focusing on 3* world medalists who are still ascending in their careers.

*I forgot, but I believe Lotte Friis is training at NBAC now too. SERIOUS distance swimmer.

2 years 9 months ago

Why do I feel like I’m posting something about the 2016 presidential election? As if anyone, including the subject of our speculation, has a clue right now.

But while I’m speculating… why not swim some SHORT COURSE MEETS? Do the World Cup circuit. You won’t win every race, but it seems like a fun series. Get to know other swimmers. Try different events. Swim like you aren’t afraid of losing (a la Hosszu). Go for relatively achievable personal best times. Show us how good those underwaters really are.

2 years 9 months ago

I agree with you about the three relays. I agree also about two of the individuals you mentioned, but I think he would avoid the 100 free individual. He has always hated to lose, and he knows that the 100 free has never been properly his race. He swam comfortably down the 48 barrier but this wouldn’t guarantee at all a place on the podium in the individual race. With the increasing age, I believe it would be wiser to “reduce” the programme to five races, the relays and the ones in which he could win the fourth consecutive title. It would be wiser to cut off longer distances, even the 200 fly, despite his long lasting love for that race. In the 100 fly the only threat is Le Clos, at least right now. In the 200 IM Lochte is the only one to go sub 1:55. My fear anyway is that Michael could swim slower than his previous records, and I fear that it would be natural… From Italy, I would love to see him on the top of the podium, and I’m always going to support him. Let’s hope for the best!


About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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