Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video

  135 Gold Medal Mel Stewart | January 08th, 2014 | Featured, Gold Medal Minute, International, National, News, Video | Sponsored by: Swimoutlet.com

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Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time, is back in the USADA drug testing pool and back at practice under longtime coach Bob Bowman. Both men maintain this is merely a means of staying fit, staying within striking distance of fighting shape. If Phelps feels race ready, he’ll test his speed–but don’t call it a comeback. Yet.

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)

Whatever the outcome, any swimming news surrounding the 22-time Olympic medalist is positive. Phelps could decide competition is a no-go and attend the 2016 Rio Olympic Games as an ambassador. His presence alone will make an impact, promoting his lifelong goal of growing the sport of swimming. However, if Phelps finds his feel for the water, his future is anyone’s guess.

My prediction, outlined in the video above, is based on Phelps’ age in 2016, the Olympic (and U.S. Olympic Trials) schedule of events, and Phelps’ desire to try new events. If he dives back into competition over the next two year and a half years, I think my six guesses are realistic.

100 meter freestyle: 47.4

100 meter butterfly: 50.2

200 meter IM: 1:53.8

I see Phelps making the 4×200 freestyle relay with a strong 200 free at US Olympic Trials, but he doesn’t swim it individually in Rio. I think that would net him a spot on all three relays.  With three individual events, Phelps would race for Olympic hardware six times at the 2016 Olympic Games.

If Michael Phelps makes a comeback, what are your guesses?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com.

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135 Comments on "Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video"


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Steve Nolan
2 years 4 months ago

I was tooootally gonna make a 100 back comment, but it was like Mel read my mind! But yeah, 2 IM or 2 fly seem more likely than that.

And I mean, phew, it seems real crazy to speculate on where he’d finish. Events and times, yeah, you can kinda parse those out. But who knows where the rest of the world’ll be in two and a half years!? I can see him not medaling in everything almost as easily as medaling.

jordan
2 years 4 months ago

50.2 100 fly just casually a second quicker than he went in London lol

Zanna
2 years 4 months ago

100/200 fly. 200 freestyle and the relays.

TheTroubleWithX
2 years 4 months ago

All three relays, 100 fly, maybe 200 IM. Would really like to see the USA get the 4×100 free gold again. It will be interesting to see how low he can get his 100 free if he can focus on that. I wouldn’t put substantial money on a 47.4, but it wouldn’t shock me either.

Atento
2 years 4 months ago

Well in london he did a 50.8 in the semifinals after the win 200 medley…

Sportinindc
2 years 4 months ago

I thought the giant Under Armour logo on the speed skaters suits looked ridiculous. Would hate to see it on a swim suit.

GO Phelps
2 years 4 months ago

Somebody made the claim on another swim swam article that phelps is working with under armour on a suit deal and is ending his speedo contract. “Aqua Armour” … Any word on this being true?

DC Guy
2 years 4 months ago

Regardless of the Maryland swimming situation which most would think comes back someday now that Maryland is entering the Big 10, Under Armor is still located in the Baltimore/Washington area and sounds like is working on a new product line.

Doggone
2 years 4 months ago

I imagine he’ll lead off the 4×100 freestyle relay, but not compete individually. That said, I agree with the rest!

coacherik
2 years 4 months ago

Go Phelps,

You mean the same company started by the man who went to school that just dropped their swim programs despite a training facility and moving to the big ten for the money? That company?! Surely you jest.

Ben
2 years 4 months ago

what does the college of the founder have to do with how a company behaves… irrelevant

John
2 years 4 months ago

No 100 fr. Freestylers are a dime a dozen. I think 200 fly, 100 fly, 200 IM and 200 free In a relay.

paolo27
2 years 4 months ago

In London, the day after that draining and shocking 400 im, with a preparation negatively affected by the decision of swimming again the 400 im (really a bad, bad choice from Bowman ), Phelps swam 47.15 with flying start.. and everybody knows that Phelps isn’t a specialist of flying start at all. (projection in London for Phelps in 100 free: 47.7, the winning time of Adrian..)
About Rio 2016, I disagree with Gold Medal Mel both for the total number of events (6 are too many events) and the number of individual events (3 are two many).
In my opinion: 2 individual events and two relays is the right schedule for Phelps in Rio 2016.
For the indidual events two possible choices:
1) 100 fly and 100 free or back for a interesting specialization towards speed and shorter events (50.1 and 47.2 my guesses)
2) 100 fly and 200 im otherwise ( 50.3-50.4 and 1.53.9 my guesses)

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Phelps wasn’t known for his relay starts… but flat starts were always the weakest part of his race, too.

SM
2 years 4 months ago

At first i though 47.4 hmm a bit far fetched but then i thought about much how quicker the 100FR specialists will be going in Rio if he does come back he would be a solid member of the 4x 100m FR relay team but an individual spot i dont know but its Michael so nothing is impossible haha

Atento
2 years 4 months ago

To me it’s obvious that He we swim 100 fly and the 200 medley. Those are the events where He can make 4 titles and really be imortal across all sports. He will swim de 3 relays. I would like to see him swim the 100 back and 100 free. Had He swam those races in Beijing and He would have medal in both. In 2007 He went 53.01 back and he lead off in Beijing with 47.51. Both times bronze medal times in beijing. However i don’t think he will swim 7 events (100 bk,fly,fr, 200m and the relays) and i still think He has the desire to triumph in his signature event (200 fly) but that would depend on how fast chad has become on that event. 8 events its impossible. But seeing him swim 7 events (the sprints, 200 medley and the relays) would be awesome. And if He got a medal in back and 100 free it would ciment his legacy. Lets not forget He is one of the best backstrokers of all time textile without a medal to show because He never decided to swim those events even though He qualified for 200 back in athens… I really think that if knew back then that He wasn t going to do the 8 for 8 in athens because of the relay and the 200 Fr, He would have decided to swim the 200 back and He would have 9 medals in athens…maybe even a gold medal in the 200 back because maybe peirsol would stay disquiliefied because phelps may have gotten a second place…

2 years 4 months ago

I think the fact that we all have to accept is that IF he does go full-bore into a comeback, there will be at least one race that he can medal in (or even gold medal in) that he will leave in his bag.

Luigi
2 years 4 months ago

My dime would be on him focusing on speed, 100 free and perhaps 100 fly, specifically, if nothing else because the shorter the race, the older you can be and still medal … and yes, of course the 100 free is THE event in swimming (Spitz and Biondi both raced it …). But I remember MP trying to adjust his stroke to the 100 free after the 2008 Olympics, and it just did not work. And let’s not forget about Thorpe, whose comeback focused on becoming more oriented towards speed events, and it also did not work (I know, I know, he was out of the pool for 5 years …).

ole 99
2 years 4 months ago

My 2 cents…

I think you nailed the events he would/will go after, I just don’t know if he would actually swim three individual events. Qualifying for the 100 free looks to be the big question. I agree that he would love to qualify/compete in the glamour race of the sport on its biggest stage. However, it is much less probable (but not necessarily unlikely) that he would qualify to swim the event individually in my opinion. If he qualifies, he’d undoubtedly swim it.

Assuming Phelps is already on the 4 x 200 free relay, adding the 100 free makes for a fairly busy Day 4. Day 5 would then have a potential final in the 100 free and heats and semis of the 200 IM. Day 6 would have heats and semis of the 100 fly and finals of the 200 IM. Its not obscene, but still a lot of swimming for a guy trying to focus on a few key events.

Swammer
2 years 4 months ago

http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4313:fina-athletes-of-the-year-2013&catid=225:highlight&Itemid=179

Lochte and Ledecky named Swimmers of the Year.
Perhaps Lochte taking center stage will drive Phelps to the comeback. And the men will definitely need Phelps if Lochte does not regain good form after the knee injury. What is the status on Lochte’s knee?

I think Phelps will return for the relays mainly, those are his best shots at making the team, and he could end his career looking like a “team player” [for his personal media gains partly].

mcgillrocks
2 years 4 months ago

Why did the choose Lochte over le Clos and Yang?

pvdh
2 years 4 months ago

Lochte : 1st in 200 back, 1st in 200 im, 1st in 4x200m free, 2nd in 4×100 free, would have been 1st in 4 x 100 medley, qualified in the 100 fly and the 200 free getting 4th the 200 free and 6th in the fly

Le Clos: 1st in 100 fly and 200 fly

Yang : 1st in the 400 free, 800 free and 1500 free, 3rd in 4×200 free

It basically comes down to Yang vs Lochte, Yand had more indivdual golds, Lochte had 3 golds 1 silver, Yang had 3 golds 1 bronze. However, Lochte had a way more rigorous schedule

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Keep in mind, for now he’s training with:
Yannick Agnel (200/400 freestyler)
Conor Dwyer (200/400 freestyler, occasional IMer)
Matt McLean (200/400 freestyler)
Tom Luchsinger (200 flyer)
…and being coached by Bob Bowman (known for coaching 200-400 swimmers, has almost no experience training sprinters).

Everyone’s assuming he would (hypothetically) focus on speed because of his age. But this would be a weird way to go about speed training.

I also suspect he has a chip on his shoulder about losing the 200 fly. He lost the 200 free in ’04, and kept training for it until he broke the WR. He lost the 100 fly to Crocker a few times, and that seemed to really motivate him for the next few years. When he won everything in ’08, his motivation kind of fizzled out. I would be shocked if he let Le Clos touch him out, and never try to challenge him again. 2/400 Fr and 1/200 Fly is not out of the question if his training goes well.

Jiggs
2 years 4 months ago

LeClos would make Michael Phelps look silly in the 200 fly in Rio. Chad looking all around and behind and stuff, while he’s winning. Not a good idea.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

I agree.

TEA’s analysis is irrational analysis from a huge fan.

Swammer
2 years 4 months ago

Tea- I don’t think phelps will do 2/4 free because I think Agnel will do those and I think Agnel will beat him.
I think Bowman training all these international swimmers may drive Phelps (and Bowman) too. Bowman will have international stars but he can also have national success with Phelps which can overshadow US disappointment with Bowman training the foreign swimmers. If that makes sense.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Bob Bowman has shown before that he will adjust the entire team’s training to fit what’s best for his protege. He might do it again. But it would be a dumb move – to tailor workouts for one swimmer’s maybe-I-will-maybe-I-won’t encore, instead of focusing on 3* world medalists who are still ascending in their careers.

*I forgot, but I believe Lotte Friis is training at NBAC now too. SERIOUS distance swimmer.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Why do I feel like I’m posting something about the 2016 presidential election? As if anyone, including the subject of our speculation, has a clue right now.

But while I’m speculating… why not swim some SHORT COURSE MEETS? Do the World Cup circuit. You won’t win every race, but it seems like a fun series. Get to know other swimmers. Try different events. Swim like you aren’t afraid of losing (a la Hosszu). Go for relatively achievable personal best times. Show us how good those underwaters really are.

Ludovico
2 years 4 months ago

I agree with you about the three relays. I agree also about two of the individuals you mentioned, but I think he would avoid the 100 free individual. He has always hated to lose, and he knows that the 100 free has never been properly his race. He swam comfortably down the 48 barrier but this wouldn’t guarantee at all a place on the podium in the individual race. With the increasing age, I believe it would be wiser to “reduce” the programme to five races, the relays and the ones in which he could win the fourth consecutive title. It would be wiser to cut off longer distances, even the 200 fly, despite his long lasting love for that race. In the 100 fly the only threat is Le Clos, at least right now. In the 200 IM Lochte is the only one to go sub 1:55. My fear anyway is that Michael could swim slower than his previous records, and I fear that it would be natural… From Italy, I would love to see him on the top of the podium, and I’m always going to support him. Let’s hope for the best!

2 years 4 months ago

Good piece Mel.
Please allow me to put in my $0.02; I cannot see Michael swimming the 400IM nor the 200 backstroke nor the 100m backstroke. The 400IM would be too taxing and would impact any other races that he wanted to compete in. Grevers, Thoman, Lochte and ors have the 100m and the 200m backstroke on lock so those races are in “safe hands”.
With Mcgill’s retirement there are few people who could sew up the 100 fly like Michael could IF he decides to swim again. Phelps could swim the 200 fly if he trained for it because he has the ability, the experience and the talent to compete in this race at the highest level.
I think that he could swim the 100 free and could make the relay teams but I am not sure that he would compete in the individual 100m free in Rio because I think that it will be between (Adrian, Ervin, Jones, Feigen etc). Phelps could swim on the 200m freestyle relay too.
He better not go for the 50m events though!!

Peake
2 years 4 months ago

Phelps to make the team in all 3 relays, 200im and 100fly. He’ll win 3 golds, (100fly and 4x100m and 4x200fr). Lochte should beat him over the 200im, and the likes of Hagino, Seto etc are really coming on strong. I don’t think anyone is going to go under the 50second barrier for the 100fly for a very very long time. I see France and Australia tussling for the 4x100fr for a long time now. US still dominates the 4x100m and 4x200fr.

2 years 4 months ago

It would be interesting to see if Phelps decided to compete in the 200IM. I still think that he and Lochte were/are the best IM swimmers in the world still to this day.

bobo gigi
2 years 4 months ago

He’s my absolute swimming idol so I don’t want to see him back in the water to lose. London was perfect to retire on top. But if he comes back one day, I will support his decision and

So, the facetious Mel Stewart asks us predictions about 2016 and Michael Phelps. Well, I like doing crazy predictions so let’s go. 🙂
If MP is back for Rio, I can’t imagine it’s for over 100 meters on individual and for more than 1 individual event. If he specializes on sprint from this year to 2016, he can swim very fast.
He would swim the 100 free and the 200 free only for the relays. MP/Dressel/Feigen/Adrian for the 4X100 free relay and MP/Conger/Dwyer/Lochte for the 4X200 free relay in Rio.
And the best would come in the 100 fly with a 4th consecutive olympic gold medal in Rio in 50.39.

TheTroubleWithX
2 years 4 months ago

Why Conger in the 4×200? He didn’t even swim the 200 this year. Just curious.

bobo gigi
2 years 4 months ago

Why Conger?
Because he’s one of the greatest American young talents. Because he already swims fast on freestyle in yards from the 50 to the 500. Because he swam 49.44 in the 100 free last year in long course. Because he still has some muscle to take. Because I think the 200 free could be the perfect distance for him on freestyle. And because I don’t see an obvious 4th man now. It’s just a prediction.

TheTroubleWithX
2 years 4 months ago

Wouldn’t shock me at all, was just wondering what you’re thinking behind it was. He’s so versatile; it’ll be interesting to see where he ends up.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Jack Conger swims for Eddie Reese at Texas.
Eddie Reese has a long history of developing Olympic relay swimmers. Guys like Neil Walker, Nate Dusing, Ricky Berens… all went in as extremely versatile, anything-but-breaststroke swimmers, and came out as 100/200 Olympic relayers.

liquidassets
2 years 4 months ago

One thing I’ve noticed is that folks think Phelps might avoid the 100 free or 2Fly because he hates to lose. It’s true he hates to lose, but doesn’t avoid events because of that because he’s not AFRAID to lose– he entered the 200 free in Athens even though he was not favored and definitely less than 90% chance of winning, ended up 3rd and was glad he swam it because it was the race of the meet. I think he’ll enter the 100 free in the same way and see what happens. I don’t think he’s afraid of losing the 2Fly either despite being not favored, but given that his stamina and number of events will be limited, I don’t think he should do it and instead:

I think he should enter the 2IM (has a chance to 4-peat unlike the 2Fly), 100 free, 100 fly (another chance to 4-peat) , and 2Free at Trials and see how it plays out. He may well only make 1 or 2 of those individual events, if he makes all 3 he may want to drop either the 100 free or the 2IM at the Olympics, though if I were him I’d swim the 100 free for the fun and challenge of it, I think that would mean more to him than 4-peating the IM. The 200 free is only for the chance of making the relay as I don’t see him making it individually, but if he somehow did, he should obviously drop the individual event for the Olympics as well.

Who knows what times he could do. If he only swam the 100 free/fly at Trials and skipped the 2Free/2Fly he might approach the times Mel predicted, at least for the 100s, probably not for the 2IM even then. Otherwise, if he swam them all I guess:

100 Free 47 high
100 Fly 50 high
2 IM 1:55
2 Free: 1:45

*Note: I don’t think he’ll do the 200 Fly, unless the Beijing goggles debacle combined with the London loss to Le Clos really sticks in his craw more than I thought. If so, he should drop most other events if he really wants to go for the win to redeem his title and/or one last shot at the WR; those being the only reasons to swim it. In that case he might want to take a cue from the success of Dara Torres and Natalie Coughlin and focus on just one event or stroke, doing only the 100/2Fly max. But I don’t think he’ll do that.

Bottom line, we may disagree on which events he’ll go for, but it underscores the amazing reality that even at age 31, and potentially his 5th Trials/Olympiad, he seemingly still has too many options!! (previously the too many options translated to him dropping backstroke events and opting out of 100/200 Free individual events).

Lastly, the one thing I think we can all agree on: He won’t be in the 400 IM!!!

john26
2 years 4 months ago

Honestly, I think he should focus on the 100fly and do be all all 3 relays.

In theory, we could see him be 47high in the 100free, he’s never really shown that go faster than that, and at that pace, will be a solid contributor to the relay. However, I dont see him taking an individual slot, and I dont think he’ll intend to.

On the other hand, I think the 100fly is still relatively slow as a worldwide scale, no one has broke 51seconds other than Crocker and Phelps, so basically no one has done so in textile other than Phelps in 7 years (shocking, really), so if Phelps gets back to his best, say 51.5? That may be enough.

You’ve got to consider that age does take a toll, that added with decreased motivation/time + intensity, will mean that he’s unlikely to whip out significant personal bests a la 47.2 or something in the 100free. I think its doubtful we’ll he another 1:44 200free from flat start from him.

I’m thinking maybe 1:45mid, but I wouldnt be surprised if he’s about to go 53low or better in the 100back in season.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

As almost always the case, I fully agree with every single point you made.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Technically, I believe Tyler McGill and one or two others went sub 51 in the textile 100 fly. But you are right, the 100 fly is pretty weak internationally right now.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

Technically, no one has gone sub 51 in textile in 100 fly aside from Crocker and Phelps.

Gill’s textile PB is 51.26 from 2011

Others who have been close to sub 51 are:
Chad Le Clos 51.06 (from 2013 Barcelona, and if only he hadn’t looked around left and right he would have gone under for sure, but he didn’t).
Konrad Czerniak 51.15 from 2011
Steffen Deibler 51.199 from 2013

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

I stand corrected. McGill’s 50.9 was from 2009.

Ragnar Darko
2 years 4 months ago

I have to agree with Mel on the individuals, and it seems too much of a stretch for Phelps to try the 100 back considering the depth of competition he would face at trials. However, I think the focus on what he would be swimming is a little premature, but at the very least, I think we’ll have MP back for some relay action at Rio. Oh, and he could certainly do a 47.4 if the 4 IM is out of the question.. think of all that rest he never had before during the Games.

Lane Four
2 years 4 months ago

Any idea when and if he will announce whether he is back or not?

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

One thing is for sure:
Phelps will swim 100 fly. You can mark my word for this, just as you have marked my word when I had claimed that Phelps would un-retire even before he announced his retirement. And I think he will have very good chance to fourpeat in Rio.

As for 100 free, only the most optimistic fan would think he will swim 47.2 or even 47.5.
Mark my word too, if you will. But he will try to swim and conquer the 100 free again, just because it’s the golden event of swimming, when the greatest swimmers of the past always swam it (Duke Kahanamoku, Johnny Weissmuller, Mark Spitz, Matt Biondi, Alexander Popov, Pieter van der Hoogenband, Ian Thorpe).

He will not swim 400 IM, or 200 fly for that matter. 200 IM is still a toss up, depending on his fitness when he will return to competition.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

As always, you seem very certain what will happen. For all anyone knows, he’ll make a comeback, have a lousy 2014 nationals, and give up on it. Or one of a hundred other possibilities. It’s all just fun speculation. Even if you’re 100% right, that won’t make you psychic.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

You also are making your own predictions right?
I am making mine.

Erle Craven
2 years 4 months ago

I believe your time predictions are pretty spot on. Remember people this is Michael Phelps we are talking about. He has never trained for shorter events and could still post a 47.51 at Beijing. Yes he had a body suit but still the change to textile suits hasn’t stopped people from still hitting or getting close to their times. The 49.8 fly may never be touched but he was a butterfly specialist. I definitely believe Michael can pull of a 47 mid and it will be exciting to see the freestyle specialists react to Michael. If Michael does work on his speed it will be over after the first 50 of any race. Nobody came home faster in the 100 free individual, or relay lead off than Michael in 08. (His 2nd 50 of 24.20) I don’t think you can put a limit on Phelps.

mcgillrocks
2 years 4 months ago

The 49.8 100 fly was from 2009 when bodysuit technology improved a great deal over even 2008. 2008 tech suit times are achievable, and in fact most of the 2008 ORs were beaten in London. 2009 times are still largely unattainable, so it would be absolutely unrealistic to expect a 49.8.

But 50.6 as a 2008 time is arguably achievable.

Liliana
2 years 4 months ago

His 49.8 fly was done in obsolete Speedo LZR, inferior to Arena 100% plastic suite at the time. I suppose we all remember his duel with Cavic, who was in more advance suite? So, 49.8 100fly was not THAT influenced by the suite.

Liliana
2 years 4 months ago

I meant suit, not suite, of course. :/

ERVINFORTHEWIN
2 years 4 months ago

Totally important detail about the suit he had at the time . After that 100 butterlfy 2009 tight win again with Cavic , Everybody remembers how he was pulling his suit out to the public sayin ” Hey , did u see that ? in a simple suit , i did it !! ” That was a statement to the ridiculous wave of fast suits WR’s .

asdf
2 years 4 months ago

What Liliana said…. I am surprised you didn’t know this Mcgillrocks you are normally on top of this stuff

Joe Augustine
2 years 4 months ago

Mel, you said 4 golds, 1 silver, and 1 bronze. Can you break down that by event for me? Just curious as to how you think it will shake out exactly. For me personally, I’d love to see him swim the 100 free individually, but I just don’t know that it happens. I feel like he might swim the 200 free individually instead. I’d like to see him the 100 fly, 200 free, and 200 IM and then all 3 relays. If I had to pick just one race to see him swim though? 200 IM, without a doubt in my mind. I want to see him take his world record back, and that race is one that is similar to the 200 fly, in that he has simply been on another level from the rest of world (with the exclusion of Lochte). I’ve got this gut feeling like he’s just waiting to do something really special in that race.

Dave
2 years 4 months ago

It seems a lot of people don’t realize how fast michael has been in some of the 4 x 100 free relays. Think back to Beijing lead-off and in London where he swam second I think. Like Stravius, his turns and underwater are what make him so quick over the 100. Stravius’ last leg of the relay in Barcelona was beyond ridiculous and probably the best turn and underwater in the history of swimming. If Mike drops the longer events and concentrates more on his turns and underwater, he will definitely be good enough for the 100 free

Liliana
2 years 4 months ago

I agree with you, people never gave enough credit to Phelps’ 100 free relay performances. Not only Beijing and London, also Pan Pacs 2010, where he was super fast too.

Rafael
2 years 4 months ago

Lezak had the best relay perfomances with Bousquet for quite a long time.. and neither were Champions.. being Relay Top does not mean you will have the same sucess on flat starts..

ERVINFORTHEWIN
2 years 4 months ago

Phelps was ridicusoulsly fast in London on that second leg behind Adrian . His turn / underwater put him in the lead … immediately . It was an impressive leg . With Feigen , Adrian , And Dressel , in 2016 , That would be a power House monster 400 free relay for Usa . He would love to put in very fast 100 free … for sure . Everybody remembers how he was in Barcelona during that race ….from the tribunes .

Liliana
2 years 4 months ago

My prediction: 100 free, 100 fly and 100 back. He becomes the first person to be an Olympic champion in 3 different strokes at the same time.

Rafael
2 years 4 months ago

Not discreting him… but can´t see him winning 100 free… and 200 free if he tries.. 100 fly he will have to go 50 mid cause I thini Le Clos will break 51 this year already.. and 100 back is a fierce competition..

Zanna
2 years 4 months ago

I agree, field is already deep in the 100 back.

ERVINFORTHEWIN
2 years 4 months ago

The field is Monstruous on backstroke in Usa , let alone in the world . Grevers , Thoman , Plummer , Murphy , Godsoe , Lochte ! + few newcomers ….. ridicusouly fierce opposition there .

mcgillrocks
2 years 4 months ago

Yannick Agnel isn’t just going to step aside for Phelps. Agnel has a chance at breaking 1:43 in Rio, Phelps won’t break 1:44.

Donster
2 years 4 months ago

Though I’d love to see MP swim the 100free in Rio2016, you have to take a look at who he’ll be facing in 2016Trials. Adrian is obviously a BIG name and will be hungry to get after his rival, Magnussen. Jimmy Feigen is also a name to look at, let’s not forget that he did BEAT Adrian in 2013Worlds in the 100 free to win a silver medal. Then there’s the two Olympic 50 sprinters, Cullen Jones and Tony Ervin who probably want to get in the 100free also. Grevers, although best known for his 100 back, is also a BIG(literally, BIG, the guy is 6’8”!!) factor to look at because he probably wants to get in another individual event that doesn’t include backstroke. and let’s not forget the young guys like CAELEB DRESSEL, the short course season isn’t over yet and he’s already gone 18.9 in the 50free, and he also broke the 49second barrier in the 100lcm free. AND HE’S A HIGH SCHOOLER. By the time 2016 comes around, he’ll be a college student, he’ll be more mature, he’ll be faster. and there’s also dark horse names like Lochte, Condorelli, Murphy, heck, Shields could also be a name to look at for the 100free if he figures out how to tackle the beast that is Long course. If Phelps does make it to Rio in the 100free that would be amazing, but he’s gunna have to face alot of people to get his spot in.

Rafael
2 years 4 months ago

Agree with you. except with Lotche being a contender for individual 100 free..

Donster
2 years 4 months ago

I only mentioned Lochte because he is now swimming at swimMAC which is a powerhouse for sprinters

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

I agree. Lochte will not be a contender in 100 free.

bobo gigi
2 years 4 months ago

Are you only sure MP will be really back in the water one day? 🙂

2 years 4 months ago

There is just one thing that troubles me about all the speculation about Phelps returning for the Olympics; why would he? What is his motivation to do so? He has all the medals, he has done it all.
I may be in the minority here but maybe there are some World records that he wants to take down or regain? Hmm maybe not. Is it that he does not want Lochte to be the only one out there, does he want to renew their rivalry?
I have a suspicion that he is back in the pool at NBAC to help Allison Schmitt and Conor Dwyer & co, to keep fit and.for business interests
Or maybe I am totally wrong.
What do you think?

2 years 4 months ago

Manyi – winners like winning. That’s all there is to it. He might not have a good reason other than “just because he wants to compete.” It’s kind of how Michael Jordan still shows up at Bobcats practice and plays with those guys. Competitors like to compete.

von marshall
2 years 4 months ago

This comment sums it up for me.

He loves the feeling of winning, the satisfaction of knowing you mastered your body and made it do something incredible.

Asking why he wouldn’t want to do that again is like asking why an adrenaline junky would want to do more than one sky dive/bungee jump etc…

It’s for the rush

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

Phelps is probably the most competitive person in the world.

You don’t really expect that kind of person to not itch back into action, knowing that at his best he can still defeat the current best swimmers?

Also, there is still this first to fourpeat title to claim.

paolo27
2 years 4 months ago

Just to mention some significant data..
In 2010, a year of extremely sluggish training (with that trip in Las Vegas a few days before Nationals), Phelps swam 50.65 in the 100 fly (and in those Nationals swam also 200 free, back, fly, im, i.e. the usual draining number of events),
and two weeks after, at Panpacs: 48.1 in the lead-off of 4×100 free the last day of those Panpacs in which he swam also that bizarre 400 im.
Phelps, then, showed a real capacity of speed even if with a sluggish and non-specific training and with many events to compete for.
All depends by Phelps motivation, obviously, but I think that, also about that, is easier to find motivation with new events (100 free in particular) and a different and less quantitative traning, and a smaller number of events to train for.

bobo gigi
2 years 4 months ago

Correct. In 2010 he lacked endurance because of a bad training but his speed was there.

mcgillrocks
2 years 4 months ago

I never understood why he was faster at 2010 nats given all those disadvantages than at 2011 worlds or London. I suppose maybe he was training longer, but most people don’t set textile best time during one of their worst seasons in years then fail to beat that time in better years.

PAC12BACKER
2 years 4 months ago

The 100 Free is the Golden premier event in all of swimming hands down. You can argue that guys like Spitz and Phelps made both fly events popular and Thorpe, Gross the 200 Free. The 50 Free is an excellent event but without a relay equivalent will never match the 100. The backstrokes and IM’s have been the domain of the USA too long to make them equally as important to the rest of the World. it’s been a long long time since the days of Roland Matthes.

Phelps must want the 100 Free to come back, and he has a good chance, especially if he can increase his openening 50 speed. Look for many newer faces in the 100. Nobody owns those individual and relay spots yet.

Mead
2 years 4 months ago

Regardless of what events he does, Phelps isn’t a guy who would come back to compete for medals, but only to win golds. I say he does 100 fly and free, then the 200 just at trials to make the 800 free relay. He might even pull out of this if he thinks it stretches his sprint training. Phelps would have a big advantage over what he used to do, because I think he’d cut down his lineup to only prime races. Imagine what he could have done if he swam just 3 or 4 events, instead of 6+ events every time.

I say 100 fly, 100 free, and both 400 relays. Maybe the 800 free relay too.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

This would be best scenario for Phelps, I think, as it would increase his chances of actually winning 100 fly and medal in 100 free without having to train for 200.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

An interesting comparison:
Ryan Lochte is one year older than Michael Phelps. He is spending a year recovering from a knee injury (kind of bad for a kick-driven swimmer). Phelps spent a year relaxing, mentally readjusting, and now getting back in shape. If Phelps made a comeback, I’m hard pressed to see any reason Lochte would have an advantage over him.

danjohnrob
2 years 4 months ago

I think Ryan is a lot more motivated than people give him credit for. I’ll bet he’s working out the best way he can, even if he can’t be swimming workouts, and he’ll be stronger in some areas than he was before. Plus, after an intense rehab process many athletes are able to tolerate the pain of training better than they could before, and they find motivation because they want their careers to end on their own terms. My question with Ryan is whether his knee injury will affect his breastroke times though, because that was one area he had a slight edge over MP.

Tea
2 years 4 months ago

Another interesting comparison:
In 2008, MP was in prime shape. Began the week with the 400 IM, ended it with a 50.5 in the 100 fly.
In 2009, MP wore the same suit, but constantly complained about being out of shape. Swimming a shorter schedule, he ended the week with a 49.8 in the 100 fly.

I think there is something to focusing on the shorter events over the 400 IM.

bignowhere
2 years 3 months ago

Phelps did not wear the same suit in 2009. In 2008 he wore leggings, and in 2009 he wore a full body suit. It was commented on at the time.

James
2 years 4 months ago

I think these predictions are way too fast. Phelps is not mentally ready to train hard for another 2 and 1/2 years in order to do another Olympics. He’s already the most decorated Olympic Athlete of all time and has nothing left to prove. In my opinion, if he does come back, he won’t be nearly as fast as you may think. Yes he could still have a strong 100 fly or 200 IM but I would not expect any gold medal individual swims from Phelps in Rio. We saw in London that he is beatable and that was him at 24 years old. It won’t be any easier to motivate and recover as he ages.

aswimfan
2 years 4 months ago

Phelps was 27 in London.

danjohnrob
2 years 4 months ago

I think that Phelps would need strong motivation to get in the kind of shape he’d need to be in to compete for gold. I think he really allowed himself to relax and refresh himself, and now he needs to re-focus. My money is on him competing in Rio because he knows that if he DOESN’T try, he may someday have to look back with regret, and because after you “officially retire” from something you used to do better than anybody else is when you start to miss it! LOL!

As far as the “motivating events” go, helping the U.S. win the 4×100 FR again would definitely be high on his goal list. We all saw how “pumped” he was after winning it in 2008!But I disagree that he will try to win the individual 100 Free. Everybody likes to swim fast, and I know MP always jokes that he wants to swim the sprints because he says they are easier, but I’ve never read/watched an interview where he expressed a burning desire to win the individual 100 Free.

What I’ve heard over and over is that he wants to “be the best ever” and “make history”! Being the first swimmer in history to win the same event in 4 successive Olympics, and the first athlete to win more than 1 individual event in 4 successive games would be very special! So, I think he’ll try to swim the 100 Fly and 200 IM individually. He’ll go for both because, as when he was trying to 3-peat in London (succeeding in 2/4 individual events), having more than 1 “chance” to make history may be important because it’s not definite he can win either. Also, it was obvious that the reason he swam the dreaded 400 IM in London was because he needed 1 more individual medal to tie Larissa Latynina’s record for most individual event medals and he knew that event was his best chance of doing so.

It also seems clear to me that Bob Bowman trains 200 IM swimmers by training them so hard for the 400 IM that the 200 becomes a walk in the park. He trains 200 Free athletes by making them 400 Free athletes (i.e. Schmidt) and 100 Free athletes by making them 200 Free athletes. So, I predict that MP will certainly be in the kind of shape necessary to swim one 200 Free leg in the 4 x 200 if he trains for the 4 x 100 and we’ll see him swim in both of those finals. And of course he will be a member of the 4 x 100 MR if he makes the 100 Fly a goal.

Unfortunately, swimming both the 100 Fly and 200 IM, which are on successive days in the schedule, will prevent him from winning both. I predict he’ll win the 200 IM (buoyed by the confidence he will gain from 2 relay wins in the days leading up to that), but that the effects of swimming 100 Fly heats + semi’s + 200 IM final the day before will catch up to him at the finish of the 100 Fly and he will be touched out. Don’t you think that’s why he swam a slower time in the 100 Fly final in London than in the semi? He wasn’t able to recover fast enough at 27, and it will be harder at 31. Still, I believe he’ll win a medal and go down in history with the most individual medals by an Olympic athlete overall. I also think he SHOULD be considered the only athlete to 4-peat in more than 1 event if he wins in the final of the 4×200 Free and 200 IM, but for some reason nobody keeps track of 3/4-peaters in team events.

In conclusion, I predict Phelps will win 4 gold (3 relays and 200 IM) and 1 silver (100 Fly, which will be won by LeClos in a tight finish, IMO) in Rio. After Rio he will be such an Olympic icon that the networks will have no choice but to hire him as a swimming commentator. As much as I like Rowdy (No offense intended, Mr. Gaines!), I would LOVE to see Gold Medal Mel and Mr. Gold Medal in the booth working together at the 2020 Olympics! I say we start the grass-roots campaign to get those two guys elected for the job RIGHT NOW!

Filip
2 years 3 months ago

200 Free Final in Rio with Loche, Phelps. Yanel and Sun Yang will be the most exciting Final in of the Olympics.

TheTroubleWithX
2 years 3 months ago

I just noticed that the full event information for Summer Nationals is now up at USA Swimming. Maybe everyone else already expected this, but looks like the same schedule as last year. So, Phelps would be looking at:

Wednesday: 100 free (assuming no 200 fly)
Thursday: 200 free
Friday: 100 fly (assuming no 400 IM)
Saturday: off
Sunday: 200 IM

Seems reasonable. I’m thinking about California for vacation anyway, and if Phelps ends up swimming at Nationals, that’ll seal the deal for me.

Drew
2 years 1 month ago

It would be awesome if Michael were to compete in the 2016 Olympics. I’m 12 and all I want to do is be like him. He is such an insperation to me and I would really like to see him compete one last time.

stephcurry
2 years 1 month ago

If traditional training for 200s becomes too grueling, how bout some USRPT!

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About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly.As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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