Michael Phelps, the greatest Olympian of all time, is back in the USADA drug testing pool and back at practice under longtime coach Bob Bowman. Both men maintain this is merely a means of staying fit, staying within striking distance of fighting shape. If Phelps feels race ready, he’ll test his speed–but don’t call it a comeback. Yet.
Michael Phelps, 22-time Olympic medalist (courtesy of Tim Binning)
Whatever the outcome, any swimming news surrounding the 22-time Olympic medalist is positive. Phelps could decide competition is a no-go and attend the 2016 Rio Olympic Games as an ambassador. His presence alone will make an impact, promoting his lifelong goal of growing the sport of swimming. However, if Phelps finds his feel for the water, his future is anyone’s guess.
My prediction, outlined in the video above, is based on Phelps’ age in 2016, the Olympic (and U.S. Olympic Trials) schedule of events, and Phelps’ desire to try new events. If he dives back into competition over the next two year and a half years, I think my six guesses are realistic.
100 meter freestyle: 47.4
100 meter butterfly: 50.2
200 meter IM: 1:53.8
I see Phelps making the 4×200 freestyle relay with a strong 200 free at US Olympic Trials, but he doesn’t swim it individually in Rio. I think that would net him a spot on all three relays. With three individual events, Phelps would race for Olympic hardware six times at the 2016 Olympic Games.
If Michael Phelps makes a comeback, what are your guesses?
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com.
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135 Comments on "Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Events Prediction: Gold Medal Minute Video"
I was tooootally gonna make a 100 back comment, but it was like Mel read my mind! But yeah, 2 IM or 2 fly seem more likely than that.
And I mean, phew, it seems real crazy to speculate on where he’d finish. Events and times, yeah, you can kinda parse those out. But who knows where the rest of the world’ll be in two and a half years!? I can see him not medaling in everything almost as easily as medaling.
It’s a tough call this far out — if Phelp is returning to competition – but we’ll revisit this topic again and again as Rio nears. It’ll be interesting to see how our guesses change or stay the same or zero-out b/c Phelps decides he’s truly done forever. I think 47.4 100 free, 50.2 100 fly and 1:53.8 are within range and fast enough to make the US Olympic Team in ’16.
50.2 100 fly just casually a second quicker than he went in London lol
Phelps was 50.7 in the 100 fly at the 2011 World Champs b/c he didn’t swim the 400 IM. Not swimming (or training for) the 400 IM has a huge impact on his speed. Phelps will need to improve .5 over that swim to net a 50.2. (In tech suits he went 50.5 in Beijing and 49.8 in Rome.)
Don’t forget that Phelps went 50.8 in the semis of the 100 fly in London, even with the 400IM earlier in the week. 50.2 is definitely possible.
I’d like to see a sub 50 from Phelps in a non tech suit. I know that’s crazy, that he went 49.8 in Rome/Worlds in a sausage suit— BUT Phelps did improve his 200 IM time in from the tech suit era. Maybe, just maybe he could in 100 fly as well. That would be spectacular…
Also, to be fair, Phelps has not been the fastest ever in a non tech suit. That 100 fly goes to Ian Crocker, 50.4. If Phelps swam a 50.39 in non tech suit, that’d be a great swim as well.
LOL, GMM…sausage suit…is that anything like Lochte’s banana hammock?
100/200 fly. 200 freestyle and the relays.
All three relays, 100 fly, maybe 200 IM. Would really like to see the USA get the 4×100 free gold again. It will be interesting to see how low he can get his 100 free if he can focus on that. I wouldn’t put substantial money on a 47.4, but it wouldn’t shock me either.
Phelps is sub 47 seconds 100 free relay split (flying start) in Rio…….if he comes back.
Well in london he did a 50.8 in the semifinals after the win 200 medley…
I thought the giant Under Armour logo on the speed skaters suits looked ridiculous. Would hate to see it on a swim suit.
Somebody made the claim on another swim swam article that phelps is working with under armour on a suit deal and is ending his speedo contract. “Aqua Armour” … Any word on this being true?
We’re hearing these rumors as well, but nothing is confirmed. So far…just rumors.
Regardless of the Maryland swimming situation which most would think comes back someday now that Maryland is entering the Big 10, Under Armor is still located in the Baltimore/Washington area and sounds like is working on a new product line.
I imagine he’ll lead off the 4×100 freestyle relay, but not compete individually. That said, I agree with the rest!
Go Phelps,
You mean the same company started by the man who went to school that just dropped their swim programs despite a training facility and moving to the big ten for the money? That company?! Surely you jest.
what does the college of the founder have to do with how a company behaves… irrelevant
No 100 fr. Freestylers are a dime a dozen. I think 200 fly, 100 fly, 200 IM and 200 free In a relay.
John…I think 100 free is the last frontier for Phelps. It may not make sense on paper, but emotionally, it is a race superstars want to succeed in… I see Phelps making a strong push on 100 free for the 4×100 alone. Factor in that he won’t train the 400 IM, and I think he’s 47 low, 46 high relay split, 47.4 flat start.
In London, the day after that draining and shocking 400 im, with a preparation negatively affected by the decision of swimming again the 400 im (really a bad, bad choice from Bowman ), Phelps swam 47.15 with flying start.. and everybody knows that Phelps isn’t a specialist of flying start at all. (projection in London for Phelps in 100 free: 47.7, the winning time of Adrian..)
About Rio 2016, I disagree with Gold Medal Mel both for the total number of events (6 are too many events) and the number of individual events (3 are two many).
In my opinion: 2 individual events and two relays is the right schedule for Phelps in Rio 2016.
For the indidual events two possible choices:
1) 100 fly and 100 free or back for a interesting specialization towards speed and shorter events (50.1 and 47.2 my guesses)
2) 100 fly and 200 im otherwise ( 50.3-50.4 and 1.53.9 my guesses)
PAOLO27…. I think you make a strong case! If you’re the greatest on earth, why not focus entirely on SPEED. While I don’t see the 100 back happening, I’d LOVE IT if Phelps went for the 100 back…. Training for all 100s would be very interesting.
Phelps wasn’t known for his relay starts… but flat starts were always the weakest part of his race, too.
At first i though 47.4 hmm a bit far fetched but then i thought about much how quicker the 100FR specialists will be going in Rio if he does come back he would be a solid member of the 4x 100m FR relay team but an individual spot i dont know but its Michael so nothing is impossible haha
Phelps on the 4×100 free relay, helping Team US fight to reclaim gold, may be enough to motivate him back to fighting shape.
To me it’s obvious that He we swim 100 fly and the 200 medley. Those are the events where He can make 4 titles and really be imortal across all sports. He will swim de 3 relays. I would like to see him swim the 100 back and 100 free. Had He swam those races in Beijing and He would have medal in both. In 2007 He went 53.01 back and he lead off in Beijing with 47.51. Both times bronze medal times in beijing. However i don’t think he will swim 7 events (100 bk,fly,fr, 200m and the relays) and i still think He has the desire to triumph in his signature event (200 fly) but that would depend on how fast chad has become on that event. 8 events its impossible. But seeing him swim 7 events (the sprints, 200 medley and the relays) would be awesome. And if He got a medal in back and 100 free it would ciment his legacy. Lets not forget He is one of the best backstrokers of all time textile without a medal to show because He never decided to swim those events even though He qualified for 200 back in athens… I really think that if knew back then that He wasn t going to do the 8 for 8 in athens because of the relay and the 200 Fr, He would have decided to swim the 200 back and He would have 9 medals in athens…maybe even a gold medal in the 200 back because maybe peirsol would stay disquiliefied because phelps may have gotten a second place…
I think the fact that we all have to accept is that IF he does go full-bore into a comeback, there will be at least one race that he can medal in (or even gold medal in) that he will leave in his bag.
My dime would be on him focusing on speed, 100 free and perhaps 100 fly, specifically, if nothing else because the shorter the race, the older you can be and still medal … and yes, of course the 100 free is THE event in swimming (Spitz and Biondi both raced it …). But I remember MP trying to adjust his stroke to the 100 free after the 2008 Olympics, and it just did not work. And let’s not forget about Thorpe, whose comeback focused on becoming more oriented towards speed events, and it also did not work (I know, I know, he was out of the pool for 5 years …).
My 2 cents…
I think you nailed the events he would/will go after, I just don’t know if he would actually swim three individual events. Qualifying for the 100 free looks to be the big question. I agree that he would love to qualify/compete in the glamour race of the sport on its biggest stage. However, it is much less probable (but not necessarily unlikely) that he would qualify to swim the event individually in my opinion. If he qualifies, he’d undoubtedly swim it.
Assuming Phelps is already on the 4 x 200 free relay, adding the 100 free makes for a fairly busy Day 4. Day 5 would then have a potential final in the 100 free and heats and semis of the 200 IM. Day 6 would have heats and semis of the 100 fly and finals of the 200 IM. Its not obscene, but still a lot of swimming for a guy trying to focus on a few key events.
http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4313:fina-athletes-of-the-year-2013&catid=225:highlight&Itemid=179
Lochte and Ledecky named Swimmers of the Year.
Perhaps Lochte taking center stage will drive Phelps to the comeback. And the men will definitely need Phelps if Lochte does not regain good form after the knee injury. What is the status on Lochte’s knee?
I think Phelps will return for the relays mainly, those are his best shots at making the team, and he could end his career looking like a “team player” [for his personal media gains partly].
thanks, SWAMMER… I think we’re writing up the news now…
Why did the choose Lochte over le Clos and Yang?
Lochte : 1st in 200 back, 1st in 200 im, 1st in 4x200m free, 2nd in 4×100 free, would have been 1st in 4 x 100 medley, qualified in the 100 fly and the 200 free getting 4th the 200 free and 6th in the fly
Le Clos: 1st in 100 fly and 200 fly
Yang : 1st in the 400 free, 800 free and 1500 free, 3rd in 4×200 free
It basically comes down to Yang vs Lochte, Yand had more indivdual golds, Lochte had 3 golds 1 silver, Yang had 3 golds 1 bronze. However, Lochte had a way more rigorous schedule
Keep in mind, for now he’s training with:
Yannick Agnel (200/400 freestyler)
Conor Dwyer (200/400 freestyler, occasional IMer)
Matt McLean (200/400 freestyler)
Tom Luchsinger (200 flyer)
…and being coached by Bob Bowman (known for coaching 200-400 swimmers, has almost no experience training sprinters).
Everyone’s assuming he would (hypothetically) focus on speed because of his age. But this would be a weird way to go about speed training.
I also suspect he has a chip on his shoulder about losing the 200 fly. He lost the 200 free in ’04, and kept training for it until he broke the WR. He lost the 100 fly to Crocker a few times, and that seemed to really motivate him for the next few years. When he won everything in ’08, his motivation kind of fizzled out. I would be shocked if he let Le Clos touch him out, and never try to challenge him again. 2/400 Fr and 1/200 Fly is not out of the question if his training goes well.
LeClos would make Michael Phelps look silly in the 200 fly in Rio. Chad looking all around and behind and stuff, while he’s winning. Not a good idea.
I agree.
TEA’s analysis is irrational analysis from a huge fan.
Tea- I don’t think phelps will do 2/4 free because I think Agnel will do those and I think Agnel will beat him.
I think Bowman training all these international swimmers may drive Phelps (and Bowman) too. Bowman will have international stars but he can also have national success with Phelps which can overshadow US disappointment with Bowman training the foreign swimmers. If that makes sense.
Bob Bowman has shown before that he will adjust the entire team’s training to fit what’s best for his protege. He might do it again. But it would be a dumb move – to tailor workouts for one swimmer’s maybe-I-will-maybe-I-won’t encore, instead of focusing on 3* world medalists who are still ascending in their careers.
*I forgot, but I believe Lotte Friis is training at NBAC now too. SERIOUS distance swimmer.
Why do I feel like I’m posting something about the 2016 presidential election? As if anyone, including the subject of our speculation, has a clue right now.
But while I’m speculating… why not swim some SHORT COURSE MEETS? Do the World Cup circuit. You won’t win every race, but it seems like a fun series. Get to know other swimmers. Try different events. Swim like you aren’t afraid of losing (a la Hosszu). Go for relatively achievable personal best times. Show us how good those underwaters really are.
CONFESSION: I was a little nervous about making a prediction so far out (and b/c the Phelps’ comeback, while looking more realistic, is still up in the air). Clearly, everyone’s thinking the same thing. Phelps wants to SPRINT. And why not? Don’t we (didn’t we) all want to swim shorter races (glamour races as OLE 99 explained)?
HERE’S A POTENTIAL SITUATION: Bowman’s been extremely successful with his athletes at the 200 and 400 distance. Can Bowman deliver a sprinter? I think he can, but what examples are there of sprinters at NBAC? Dwyer’s been swimming fast 100 frees….
Dwyer,yea but what about Agnel?
very true…Agnel. Those three could be a scary to race. For an NBAC club 4×100 relay, who’s the 4th man?
McLean is faster than Luchsinger in the 100 free, from what times I can find.
I have no doubt Bowman can deliver a great sprinter.The question is:Can him deliver a TOP one?Can he do the weighting between 50 free training and 200free?I always ask myself if he is gonna bring Agnel to be a 47low freestyler or is going to make him a top 400free one.
I agree with you about the three relays. I agree also about two of the individuals you mentioned, but I think he would avoid the 100 free individual. He has always hated to lose, and he knows that the 100 free has never been properly his race. He swam comfortably down the 48 barrier but this wouldn’t guarantee at all a place on the podium in the individual race. With the increasing age, I believe it would be wiser to “reduce” the programme to five races, the relays and the ones in which he could win the fourth consecutive title. It would be wiser to cut off longer distances, even the 200 fly, despite his long lasting love for that race. In the 100 fly the only threat is Le Clos, at least right now. In the 200 IM Lochte is the only one to go sub 1:55. My fear anyway is that Michael could swim slower than his previous records, and I fear that it would be natural… From Italy, I would love to see him on the top of the podium, and I’m always going to support him. Let’s hope for the best!