Joe Schooling Butterfly Olympic Focus: GMM presented by

Gold Medal Minute presented by

Can Joseph Schooling win gold at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio? I think so, if the 100 butterfly final is slow, meaning the winning time is 50.4 or 50.5.

Joe’s progression in the sport points to a medal finish in Rio.  Joe’s a racer.  His 44 100 yard butterfly and monstrous 1:37 200 yard fly at NCAA Championships was eye-opening.  Swim-fans expected him to swim lightning fast–but not that fast.  True, yards times don’t always translate to meters, but Joe’s 2015 World Championships bronze in the 100m butterfly, 50.9, proves he’s Olympic-stage ready.

I still think  Michael Phelps has a sub 50 in him this summer.  Everything has to lineup for Phelps to do it, but it’s possible.  Clearly Phelps is the man to beat in Rio, but you’re foolish not to keep an eye on Schooling.  Joe. Is. Dangerous.  He’s got mean speed going out and grit coming home.


We all know Jack’s got the talent to breakthrough.  Jack tapered twice last summer, once for World University Games and again for US Summer Nationals.  He swam fast in 2015, but because of the two tapers, we did not see his best effort.


As a US-based fan, I’m pulling for Phelps and Conger and every other Team USA athlete, but the 100 fly is deep with talent globally, and I always leave Laszlo Cseh out of the mix.  After his recent turn at European Championships, he’s clearly ready to challenge in Rio, in both the 100 and 200 fly.

Could the entire 100 butterfly final be under 50.7?  I think it’s possible.

Could the entire 100 butterfly final be 50.5 (winning time) to 51.1?  I could see that as well if the pool and living conditions are challenging.


Schooling shaves 5 tenths from his 2015 World Championships 100 fly, the 50.9. Schooling turns in a 50.4 in Rio.  After a shaky 200 fly at Worlds last year, Schooling puts together a solid 200 fly final. In the video above, I called it at 1:53 low, but I think he’s 1:52 something, and  Schooling edges le Clos or Cseh getting on the medal podium.

What do you think?

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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of, a Swimming News website.

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Ok world

While Phelps is the favorite the 100 fly with no doubt, the 200 fly is different, and I think cseh is the favorite there. You could tell by his lack of pure speed he wasn’t tapered, and he seemed to figure out his race plan, Phelps it swam faster than csehs time once, and that was 2007 phelps, who I don’t think we’ll see in Rio. Especially not being an Olympic gold medalist yet, and this being his last chance, I expect cseh to put on a show in Rio and take 200 fly gold and 100 fly silver.


They should change the podium to top 5 finishers this year in the 100 and 200 fly – cause it’s going to be close.


At least 🙂

Irish Ringer

Lack of pure speed? He swam a 50.8 in the 100m fly. That’s pretty fast for Laslo and don’t kid yourself. He was tapered. Maybe not fully, but this guy isn’t going 50 and 1:52 in the middle of hard training.

I agree…it’s going to be a tough race. Phelps, Cseh or LeClos would win.


200 fly: Phelps 1:52, Le Clos 1:52.7, Schooling 1:53.0
100 Fly: Phelps 49…, Schooling 50.3, Cseh 50.5


No Le Clos in either? Bold prediction.


Whoops, misread your 200 prediction.


Cseh swam 1:52:9 these days and he is not even on the list?

Irish Ringer

It is interesting….we are forecasting a guy who has swam 1:55/1:56 historically and with just a few tweaks of the stroke now he’s already down in the 1:52’s, while a guy who has swam 1:52’s is left out. I just don’t see it. I think Schooling has overachieved given his physical attributes and stroke. That 50.9 will stand as his best time after Rio and he’ll muster 1:54 mid in the 200 in Rio….mark my words 🙂


I agree with you.
What’s Schooling’s PB?
I don’t think he’s ever gone 1:53. Has he even swum 1:53?

Irish Ringer

I think 1:55.73 is Joe’s PB in the 200m fly. He was 1:56 twice last year at WC, but he did swim a 1:57.3 a few weeks ago. I think it’s safe to say he’ll be faster than his PB, but skipping 1:54 and 1:53 to arrive at 1:52.X in Rio would be a huge drop. We are talking a full 3 second drop. You don’t see that everyday. I don’t recall Phelps, Cseh or LeClos doing it once they were in the 1:55 territory.


Words marked!


Schooling is not gonna medal in 200 fly.


Where’s Shields, Czerniak etc. So I think about both races that Phelps or Cseh. 100 is a little bit more for Phelps 200 for Cseh. Very close to 50.00 and 1.52.00. Or just under it. I won’t be surprised.

Irish Ringer

Most sensible thing I’ve seen so far. But hey…he was 1:57.37 a few weeks ago. Surely he can knock 3 seconds off his time from Worlds 🙂

Irish Ringer

I’ll believe it when I see it from Schooling in the 200m fly. He was 1:56 in the 200m fly at Worlds and didn’t even final so now all of a sudden he’s dropping 3-4 seconds? Also, don’t let the 200y fly fool you. It’s not even close to what the 200m fly is with so much of it spent underwater and a much lower stroke count compared to that of LCM.

Swim Fanatic

I think we will see a 49.6 for MP in Rio and Schooling right behind him in a 50.0. I think Phelps will beat his 200 Fly record as well going right under the 1:51.3 barrier. Don’t count Schooling out in the 200 with his very impressive yards time. For the 100 Fly I see either Phelps and Conger going or Phelps and Shields and for the 200 I see Phelps and Conger going. Looking forward to Trials and Rio!!!

About Gold Medal Mel Stewart

Gold Medal Mel Stewart

MEL STEWART Jr., aka Gold Medal Mel, won three Olympic medals at the 1992 Olympic Games. Mel's best event was the 200 butterfly. He is a former World, American, and NCAA Record holder in the 200 butterfly. As a writer/producer and sports columnist, Mel has contributed to Yahoo Sports, Universal Sports, …

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