This article (data only) originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.
As a whole, swimming has continued to progress and get faster in the three years since Tokyo—we’ve already seen five world records go down so far in 2024, and eight others (in Olympic events) were broken in 2023.
However, under the bright lights of the Olympics, with all of the outside noise that comes along with it—not to mention the usually less-than-ideal conditions athletes deal with at the Games—the winning times can sometimes be a bit slower than we’d anticipated.
In Tokyo, only two individual events were won in world record fashion: the men’s 100 fly and women’s 200 breast.
Caeleb Dressel‘s mark of 49.45 in the 100 fly is still on the books three years later, while Tatjana Smith‘s (Schoenmaker) 200 breast record of 2:18.95 has been obliterated by Evgeniia Chikunova in 2:17.55—though Chikunova, a Russian, won’t be racing in Paris.
Just in the last six months, we’ve seen swimmers log faster times than what won gold in Tokyo in 16 of the 28 individual Olympic events, showing us just how much faster things have gotten in recent years.
And while we expect things to be quicker as a whole in Paris than they were in Tokyo—in some events, by a lot—how much faster things get relative to what we’ve seen in the last 18 months remains to be seen.
Below, find the times required to win gold, bronze, and what it took to final (8th in the semis, or prelims of events 400 and up) at the Tokyo Games. What do you think will be required to win, reach the podium, and make the final in Paris?
MEN – TOKYO OLYMPICS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL |
| 50m Freestyle | 21.07 | 21.57 | 21.78 |
| 100m Freestyle | 47.02 | 47.44 | 47.82 |
| 200m Freestyle | 1:44.22 | 1:44.66 | 1:45.71 |
| 400m Freestyle | 3:43.36 | 3:43.94 | 3:45.68 |
| 800m Freestyle | 7:41.87 | 7:42.33 | 7:47.73 |
| 1500m Freestyle | 14:39.65 | 14:40.91 | 14:52.66 |
| 100m Backstroke | 51.98 | 52.19 | 53.20 |
| 200m Backstroke | 1:53.27 | 1:54.72 | 1:56.69 |
| 100m Breaststroke | 57.37 | 58.33 | 59.18 |
| 200m Breaststroke | 2:06.38 | 2:07.13 | 2:08.76 |
| 100m Butterfly | 49.45 WR | 50.74 | 51.30 |
| 200m Butterfly | 1:51.25 | 1:54.45 | 1:55.31 |
| 200m IM | 1:55.00 | 1:56.17 | 1:57.64 |
| 400m IM | 4:09.42 | 4:10.38 | 4:10.20 |
WOMEN – TOKYO OLYMPCIS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL |
| 50m Freestyle | 23.81 | 24.21 | 24.32* |
| 100m Freestyle | 51.96 | 52.52 | 53.11 |
| 200m Freestyle | 1:53.50 | 1:54.70 | 1:56.58 |
| 400m Freestyle | 3:56.69 | 4:01.08 | 4:04.07 |
| 800m Freestyle | 8:12.57 | 8:18.35 | 8:20.58 |
| 1500m Freestyle | 15:37.34 | 15:42.91 | 15:58.96 |
| 100m Backstroke | 57.47 | 58.05 | 59.30 |
| 200m Backstroke | 2:04.68 | 2:06.17 | 2:08.76 |
| 100m Breaststroke | 1:04.95 | 1:05.54 | 1:06.59 |
| 200m Breaststroke | 2:18.95 WR | 2:20.84 | 2:23.73 |
| 100m Butterfly | 55.59 | 55.72 | 57.19 |
| 200m Butterfly | 2:03.86 | 2:05.65 | 2:09.07 |
| 200m IM | 2:08.52 | 2:09.04 | 2:10.59 |
| 400m IM | 4:32.08 | 4:34.90 | 4:37.37 |
*Tied for 8th, scratched led to no swim-off
The relays are a bit of a different story, as we saw four world records fall in Tokyo, while the all-time marks were seriously approached in two others (men’s 400 and 800 free relays).
RELAYS – TOKYO OLYMPICS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL | |
| Men | 4x100m Freestyle Relay | 3:08.97 | 3:10.22 | 3:13.13 |
| 4x200m Freestyle Relay | 6:58.58 | 7:01.84 | 7:07.73 | |
| 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:26.78 WR | 3:29.17 | 3:32.38 | |
| Women | 4x100m Freestyle Relay | 3:29.69 WR | 3:32.81 | 3:35.93 |
| 4x200m Freestyle Relay | 7:40.33 WR | 7:41.29 | 7:56.16 | |
| 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:51.60 | 3:52.60 | 3:57.70 | |
| Mixed | 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:37.58 WR | 3:38.95 | 3:43.94 |
The world records in the women’s 400 and 800 free relays were lowered significantly by the Australians in 2023, while the men’s medley relay record (USA) and the mixed medley mark (Great Britain) remain on the books today.
Katie Ledecky could post a time of 15:37.35 in the final of the W 1500 FR and win by nearly six seconds. Swim it for the win and reserve plenty of gas in the tank for the W 800 FR.
Crazy that the time to final in the men’s 400 IM in Tokyo (4:10.20) would have taken the silver (4:10.28) in the final itself.
The beauty of morning finals.
Will it be morning finals again this time?
Solid chance that the M 1500 free, M 800 free, M 400 free, M 400 IM, and W 200 IM bronze medal times will be faster than the gold in Tokyo. Also a chance in the M 200 free, W 200 free, W 400 IM, W 100 fly, maybe M 100 free on paper.
Would not count in it happening in any other individual event
M 100fly bronze will surely be faster than a 50.74
Been said before but men’s 100 free will be crazy! 47.9 in prelims won’t make the semis and 47.5 in semis might miss the final! We’ll see multiple 46’s; at least 1 leading off the relay and at least 2 in the semis. Finals will be slower & 46.9 wins it!
Women 200 IM time from Tokyo is almost certainly not medaling
It’s not even the fastest time of 2021. Mackeown swam faster time in Australia trials, but decided not to swim it as it clashed with back event and she didn’t have Uncle Bob to fix the schedule for her.
I think the bronze medal times in the following events could be faster than the gold-winning time from Tokyo:
200 FR: 1:53.50 (decent chance – Mollie and Titmus definitely under, mostly comes down to Haughey)
400 FR: 3:56.69 (quite unlikely – Titmus for sure, possibly McIntosh, 3rd could be Ledecky)
100 BK: 57.47 (likely – I expect Smith and McKeown to be under. Masse or Berkoff could be under this time)
200 BK: 2:04.68 (somewhat likely – again Smith and McKeown should definitely be under, I could see a third under)
100 FL: 55.59 (likely – Gretchen should be faster, Huske as well, and the field is so fast)
200 IM: 2:08.52 (as close to… Read more »
200 Free – With you
400 Free – Absolutely not happening
100 Back – Not happening
200 back – Unlikely. No one other than the top 2 have been within a second of this time in years.
100 Fly – Certainly possible
200IM – Absolutely happening
400IM – Possible
“200 FR: 1:53.50 (decent chance – Mollie and Titmus definitely under, mostly comes down to Haughey)
Mostly comes down to McIntosh. Haughey never swam anything close to 1:53.50. also Haughey is 9 years older than McIntosh.
McIntosh won’t swim it
If McIntosh doesn’t swim it, then no way anyone aside from Titmus and MOC will go under 1:53.5
200FR: IF McIntosh swims it then very reasonable chance. Haughey …..may be a push
400FR: Possible but unlikely
100BK: Not seeing a 3rd sub 57.5
200BK: Not seeing any likely candidates
100FLY: Very possible
200IM: Exceedingly likely
400IM: Possible
I predict the men’s finals qualifying times will get faster across the board while the women’s will stay roughly the same
4:09.4 won’t even medal in the men’s 4 IM this year, that’s wild
I feel it shouldn’t even have medaled last time.
That was a ridiculously slow podium. It was an ok top 8 time to make the final but the slowest winning time in forever. Not sure if finals being in morning had anything to do with it?!?!
Beijing finals were also AM but medals were 4:03, 4:06, 4:08. I think the bigger thing was a disruption to aerobic training. 2022 and 2023 saw giant improvements in the 400-1500 distances
You forgot what happened in Beijing:
Speedo LZR
Morning final and extremely fast heats presumably had a role in that.
I mean it didn’t medal in 2016, 2012, or 2008 either lol
Well duh, the two greatest IMers of all time were swimming then.
Lazlo ceczh too